How good is Freddie McSwain Jr. ?

[T.M.P.]

Mine are injury adjusted now too, but back then I didn't make any adjustments because I pretty much only used them for my Fantasy League draft in December. What was so disappointing at the time (and still to be honest) is Crean is one of the few coaches who's teams never significantly outperform the roster rating (other than the D. Wade team which predates my ratings anyway.)

Beilein's Michigan teams for example have significantly over performed several times... Painter too

Yup.... as you well know, one year of stats don't show much, it can be luck, but when you see the same trend for 15+ years .. well.. you're very underwhelmed by his results.

You also know that it seems in a majority that the "good" coaches have a few things in common. Like valuing IQ over pure athleticism (smart play over exciting), valuing possessions (playing slow to minimize mistakes), and an emphasis on defense (so you can still win games when the offense isn't working).

 

[Paterfamilias]

Yup.... as you well know, one year of stats don't show much, it can be luck, but when you see the same trend for 15+ years .. well.. you're very underwhelmed by his results.

You also know that it seems in a majority that the "good" coaches have a few things in common. Like valuing IQ over pure athleticism (smart play over exciting), valuing possessions (playing slow to minimize mistakes), and an emphasis on defense (so you can still win games when the offense isn't working).

This years team looks like it's going to come in around #18 or so in my ratings. I think he's in prime position to really overachieve this year and maybe even be a Top 5 type of team. I think a #4 or #5 seed this year would be a disappointment from the standpoint of blowing his opportunity to end the streak.

I've learned to distance myself a bit as a fan and watch IU more as a curiosity. I did get into the stretch run last year and thoroughly enjoyed the UK win, but I'm becoming more of a March fan of IU. I like watching the big matchups nationally much more than IU early in the season nowadays.

 

[T.M.P.]

This years team looks like it's going to come in around #18 or so in my ratings. I think he's in prime position to really overachieve this year and maybe even be a Top 5 type of team. I think a #4 or #5 seed this year would be a disappointment from the standpoint of blowing his opportunity to end the streak.

I've learned to distance myself a bit as a fan and watch IU more as a curiosity. I did get into the stretch run last year and thoroughly enjoyed the UK win, but I'm becoming more of a March fan of IU. I like watching the big matchups nationally much more than IU early in the season nowadays.

We have them a bit higher, with the only weakness at guard. Preliminary and all. Around 10 pure, lower w/coach adj?

I really think that this team will be a better defensive team only because of OG, RJ and TB taking on greater roles and JN getting minutes at point. that's not a bad defensive lineup. Then we may actually have a backup 5 and 4! On a team recruited by Tom Crean! lol ..

fwiw - this may be the tallest overall team he's ever had.

He could also decide to go big, in a manner that actually fits his offense (lol) and go JN(or RJ) JB, OG, JM, TB - that's not bad defensively either but probably not as good as the above on offense.

The worry for me as I posted above is guard play. TO's especially .. and to some extent shooting and offense because of our guard play.

Also, everyone is in a new role this year. TB will get more defensive focus. RJ takes on a much bigger role especially if he's the PG. OG and JW playing against the "A" lineups. JN is new.. experienced and familiar but still new. JB will be expected to try on defense and most likely becomes our main scorer.

His scoring efficiencies are excellent, top 2%. But as pointed out by BSmitty, when looked at against major teams only, they fall off the map, and he becomes very average.

Though talented, too many questions. I suspect much of the same, just "barely" under.

 

[Paterfamilias]

We have them a bit higher, with the only weakness at guard. Preliminary and all. Around 10 pure, lower w/coach adj?

I really think that this team will be a better defensive team only because of OG, RJ and TB taking on greater roles and JN getting minutes at point. that's not a bad defensive lineup. Then we may actually have a backup 5 and 4! On a team recruited by Tom Crean! lol ..

fwiw - this may be the tallest overall team he's ever had.

He could also decide to go big, in a manner that actually fits his offense (lol) and go JN(or RJ) JB, OG, JM, TB - that's not bad defensively either but probably not as good as the above on offense.

The worry for me as I posted above is guard play. TO's especially .. and to some extent shooting and offense because of our guard play.

Also, everyone is in a new role this year. TB will get more defensive focus. RJ takes on a much bigger role especially if he's the PG. OG and JW playing against the "A" lineups. JN is new.. experienced and familiar but still new. JB will be expected to try on defense and most likely becomes our main scorer.

His scoring efficiencies are excellent, top 2%. But as pointed out by BSmitty, when looked at against major teams only, they fall off the map, and he becomes very average.

Though talented, too many questions. I suspect much of the same, just "barely" under.

Good post! I know that it's probably not going to happen, but I would prefer to see Blackmon coming off the bench. He could come in fresh and light it up when the opponent has one or two regulars on the pine, thereby lessening the pressure on him defensively.

I would be fairly surprised if Newkirk is not a starter. If he is, then either Blackmon or Hartman is coming off the bench because I don't think a starting lineup without Bryant, OG and Johnson seems very likely. Still 4 months out from practice starting so things could still get shook up by off-court issues, injuries etc.

I'm staying up late doing some roster work tonight. It's a habit because Thursday night is when I do my weekend prep work for fanduel during the season. Anyway, one of the teams that I keep thinking might be a surprise next year is Illinois. I know Groce is a huge question mark, but man he's had nothing but bad luck on the injury front the past 2 seasons. Now that Abrams is back, I'm embarrassed to say that I have them as a Top 20 team on paper.

Obviously, Abrams may be too rusty or not even the same player after the injuries and Black will need to stay out of nightclubs, but this team intrigues me quite a bit. How do they look by your numbers?

 

[T.M.P.]

Good post! I know that it's probably not going to happen, but I would prefer to see Blackmon coming off the bench. He could come in fresh and light it up when the opponent has one or two regulars on the pine, thereby lessening the pressure on him defensively.

I would be fairly surprised if Newkirk is not a starter. If he is, then either Blackmon or Hartman is coming off the bench because I don't think a starting lineup without Bryant, OG and Johnson seems very likely. Still 4 months out from practice starting so things could still get shook up by off-court issues, injuries etc.

I'm staying up late doing some roster work tonight. It's a habit because Thursday night is when I do my weekend prep work for fanduel during the season. Anyway, one of the teams that I keep thinking might be a surprise next year is Illinois. I know Groce is a huge question mark, but man he's had nothing but bad luck on the injury front the past 2 seasons. Now that Abrams is back, I'm embarrassed to say that I have them as a Top 20 team on paper.

Obviously, Abrams may be too rusty or not even the same player after the injuries and Black will need to stay out of nightclubs, but this team intrigues me quite a bit. How do they look by your numbers?

Groce has had incredibly bad luck on the injury front. It seems every year he loses a key player. I don't see them in the top 40 currently. Though that may change. Our surprise team is OSU...they may have lost a few players but the ones they have produced and will be a year older. Plus, he's due.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Good post! I know that it's probably not going to happen, but I would prefer to see Blackmon coming off the bench. He could come in fresh and light it up when the opponent has one or two regulars on the pine, thereby lessening the pressure on him defensively.

I would be fairly surprised if Newkirk is not a starter. If he is, then either Blackmon or Hartman is coming off the bench because I don't think a starting lineup without Bryant, OG and Johnson seems very likely. Still 4 months out from practice starting so things could still get shook up by off-court issues, injuries etc.

I'm staying up late doing some roster work tonight. It's a habit because Thursday night is when I do my weekend prep work for fanduel during the season. Anyway, one of the teams that I keep thinking might be a surprise next year is Illinois. I know Groce is a huge question mark, but man he's had nothing but bad luck on the injury front the past 2 seasons. Now that Abrams is back, I'm embarrassed to say that I have them as a Top 20 team on paper.

Obviously, Abrams may be too rusty or not even the same player after the injuries and Black will need to stay out of nightclubs, but this team intrigues me quite a bit. How do they look by your numbers?

We all need to sit down to some beer and discuss this stuff. Way too cool.

The thing I love about it is the WHY. Why do things happen? That's the thing that a lot of people just can't grasp - or won't acknowledge. Things just don't happen over time randomly - the results can be pretty well tracked over time. Using stats (whichever form you choose) is the best way to provide performance metrics.

 

[Paterfamilias]

Groce has had incredibly bad luck on the injury front. It seems every year he loses a key player. I don't see them in the top 40 currently. Though that may change. Our surprise team is OSU...they may have lost a few players but the ones they have produced and will be a year older. Plus, he's due.

Thumbs up on OSU! I've got em #1 in the Big 10 by the numbers. I wouldn't actually pick them 1st logically though, because I think IU and Wisconsin are more likely, but OSU should contend this year. MSU I'm iffy about, because Izzo didn't fare well in the past when dependent on a star studded freshmen class (at least in the regular season), but on paper they look just about as likely as the other 4 that I've mentioned.

Anyway, nice chat! Got horse racing tourneys the next two days so I needed to clear my mind a little!

 

[Squarepants]

We all need to sit down to some beer and discuss this stuff. Way too cool.

The thing I love about it is the WHY. Why do things happen? That's the thing that a lot of people just can't grasp - or won't acknowledge. Things just don't happen over time randomly - the results can be pretty well tracked over time. Using stats (whichever form you choose) is the best way to provide performance metrics.

That's a good question, seriously, so please excuse my upcoming smart-alecky comment...but above, Pater and TMP had this uber-nerdy, fantasy league, data-filled analytical conversation filled with talk about trends, and then TMP ends it with a comment that OSU was a surprise team because Matta "is due"????

That comment actually made me chuckle, and God help me, roll my eyes a little.

 

[T.M.P.]

That's a good question, seriously, so please excuse my upcoming smart-alecky comment...but above, Pater and TMP had this uber-nerdy, fantasy league, data-filled analytical conversation filled with talk about trends, and then TMP ends it with a comment that OSU was a surprise team because Matta "is due"????

That comment actually made me chuckle, and God help me, roll my eyes a little.

Why? He has a fairly talented team and history implies he generally does well when he has talent. Unless he has changed and become a worse coach probability implies they will have a good season.

 

[Paterfamilias]

That's a good question, seriously, so please excuse my upcoming smart-alecky comment...but above, Pater and TMP had this uber-nerdy, fantasy league, data-filled analytical conversation filled with talk about trends, and then TMP ends it with a comment that OSU was a surprise team because Matta "is due"????

That comment actually made me chuckle, and God help me, roll my eyes a little.

It's now considered uber-nerdy to talk about starting lineup possibilities, revisit past seasons, consider impact of injuries, and project conference surprise teams? It's not full blown idiocracy quite yet is it? Are people show offs if they calculate the tip in their head now?

I'm just kidding... I do see the humor... but isn't this the place for basketball fans to be a little bit nerdy?

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

That's a good question, seriously, so please excuse my upcoming smart-alecky comment...but above, Pater and TMP had this uber-nerdy, fantasy league, data-filled analytical conversation filled with talk about trends, and then TMP ends it with a comment that OSU was a surprise team because Matta "is due"????

That comment actually made me chuckle, and God help me, roll my eyes a little.

My opinion of his comment would be tied to what he based the comment on.

Was it just based on wild fan speculation? Or was TMP looking at trending data of some sort that would indicate the likelihood of success was a distinct possibility?

As I've said before, nothing is ever written in stone; there are no absolutes. But I don't see how you can make an informed opinion without information. In that regard, guys like Pater, TMP and myself think alike.

 

[Squarepants]

Easy, Poindexters! I was just taking a light-hearted jab at the notion that somehow, "he's due", fits into some analytic, and it seemed out of place in such a data-driven conversation, which I was interested in reading, and totally fits on this board.

Now, go back to your mommy's basement, wipe off the cheetoh dust, have another swig of Mt. Dew, and continue. (Just kidding.)

 

[T.M.P.]

Easy, Poindexters! I was just taking a light-hearted jab at the notion that somehow, "he's due", fits into some analytic, and it seemed out of place in such a data-driven conversation, which I was interested in reading, and totally fits on this board.

Now, go back to your mommy's basement, wipe off the cheetoh dust, have another swig of Mt. Dew, and continue. (Just kidding.)

Derp

 

[Paterfamilias]

Speaking of "their due" analysis. It's been the icing on the cake for some of my best horse racing scores. When Palace Malice won the Belmont a couple of years ago, I had decided that he fit as a good bet on every criteria that I could come up with. I was still feeling hesitant to pull the trigger as I stood in line trying to decide wager amount. Then it hit me... you're due dude... take a swing!

Due analysis is like that caveman instinct that you just feel sometimes. You know you're right, but you can't exactly explain it other than to say "blankety blank is due"

Sorry for the T-Breds on a basketball board, but I thought it might fit the conversation.

 

[T.M.P.]

Speaking of "their due" analysis. It's been the icing on the cake for some of my best horse racing scores. When Palace Malice won the Belmont a couple of years ago, I had decided that he fit as a good bet on every criteria that I could come up with. I was still feeling hesitant to pull the trigger as I stood in line trying to decide wager amount. Then it hit me... you're due dude... take a swing!

Due analysis is like that caveman instinct that you just feel sometimes. You know you're right, but you can't exactly explain it other than to say "blankety blank is due"

Sorry for the T-Breds on a basketball board, but I thought it might fit the conversation.

Matta has been fairly consistent with his teams. Last year was a very young squad for him, so that was expected, but any other time in his career where he had decent talent, he has performed to the level of that talent. He's not been a negative impact coach. Next year he has a good core to start with, hence the comment. Of course he's in constant pain, and that may be impacting his coaching, but we'll see. It wasn't a gut feeling comment, it was actually based on his historical performance.

 

[Squarepants]

Speaking of "their due" analysis. It's been the icing on the cake for some of my best horse racing scores. When Palace Malice won the Belmont a couple of years ago, I had decided that he fit as a good bet on every criteria that I could come up with. I was still feeling hesitant to pull the trigger as I stood in line trying to decide wager amount. Then it hit me... you're due dude... take a swing!

Due analysis is like that caveman instinct that you just feel sometimes. You know you're right, but you can't exactly explain it other than to say "blankety blank is due"

Sorry for the T-Breds on a basketball board, but I thought it might fit the conversation.

So we agree...hunches can be a valid, albeit unquantifiable (for lack of a better word) aspect of predicting future success (or lack thereof).

I'm on board with that.

 

[Squarepants]

Derp

Succinct.

 

[Shirtsandskins]

Matta has been fairly consistent with his teams. Last year was a very young squad for him, so that was expected, but any other time in his career where he had decent talent, he has performed to the level of that talent. He's not been a negative impact coach. Next year he has a good core to start with, hence the comment. Of course he's in constant pain, and that may be impacting his coaching, but we'll see. It wasn't a gut feeling comment, it was actually based on his historical performance.

I've seen Matta walking around during his kids cross country meets....he walks like he is 80yrs old.

 

[kenchai]

My issue with year three is that he should've recruited and managed his roster better in years one and two. It doesn't take long to get 8-9 deep in hoops. This isn't football

He was hired in the late fall before year one and all the top 100 talent had been signed.

 

[kenchai]

We're good - IF you can keep recruiting Cody Zellers.

Not looking good right now . . .

Pretty weird comment. We won the Big Ten without Cody this past year. Next year we will be deeper and more experienced and there has never been as many top players that we have made their list than 2017. I think the talent level is on the upswing.

 

[Paterfamilias]

Matta has been fairly consistent with his teams. Last year was a very young squad for him, so that was expected, but any other time in his career where he had decent talent, he has performed to the level of that talent. He's not been a negative impact coach. Next year he has a good core to start with, hence the comment. Of course he's in constant pain, and that may be impacting his coaching, but we'll see. It wasn't a gut feeling comment, it was actually based on his historical performance.

Yeah, I knew what you meant! I was just saying that "gut" feeling isn't even really all that silly anyway as long as you've checked a lot of other boxes to go along with it.

 

[Shirtsandskins]

He was hired in the late fall before year one and all the top 100 talent had been signed.

He was hired in early April

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Pretty weird comment. We won the Big Ten without Cody this past year. Next year we will be deeper and more experienced and there has never been as many top players that we have made their list than 2017. I think the talent level is on the upswing.

Crean has had 3 good seasons since he's been at IU - 2 w/ Cody and last year, which was as fortunate amount of breaks as you could ever hope to get.

But there are no Cody's on the roster - or Yogi's, for that matter. They have a lot of talent, but no dynamic talent. They are a mostly inside roster in a system that drives the ball to the basket via dribble, and have questions at PG.

When you break it down, it's not a weird comment at all.