How bout that stock market?
- Thread starter zeke4ahs
- Start date
All Dems do is lie. It’s not a one party issue. Harris trump will have a national ban on abortions. Musk. Stop lying. The condition of Biden. You can’t believe a word this administration says.
Great to hear about your investment adventures. I never could buy the trip Q's (and many other investments) at my old firm. Now I can and it's been fun and rewarding.
Did I read in another post you retired recently? If so, that is awesome. Now you can spend more time on the forum bickering with dorks like me.
Yep both sides do it. Like "Dems are letting illegals vote for president!" Lie. And your examples from the left.
Now we’ll get Kamala. The queen of laughin and lyin
Why you leaving out July and August?
I have a trading strategy with TQQQ but a bit different then you. Mainly using the Sp500 trend line and moving averages. You cannot hold 3x leverage ETFs in a bear market. Can get wiped out.
Not boring at all and interesting how you morphed into such a 'progressive' belief. You're obviously astute and tuned to the market and become fairly wealthy. I'm more of the slow and steady type, since I had no background in the market, nor had friends or family who were. I finally realized the only was I was going to amount to anything was to work my ass off and live within my means (if only my wife had that philosophy).
But I don't understand how you went from working your way to success to thinking government is responsible for taking care of everyone. My sister's ex-husband had that philosophy and he rarely had a job and, when he did, it didn't last long. He kept trying to get my sister to go on welfare because it was 'the government's job to take care of them'. She refused and eventually divorced him, but their daughter (my niece) grew up believing that and has gamed the system all her life. I've seen, up close, what that philosophy leads to.
I don't think the founders of this country felt they should take care of them. They saw government as a way to protect their rights and not much else.
Not going to get into a big discussion about it, but I do admire your personal achievements. I'm jealous I'm not that sharp in the market. You could easily make money off saps like me who would like to invest more aggressively by teaching them how to do it.
The founding fathers would be appalled at the level of fraud, manipulation, irresponsible choices and reliance on the government that exists today.
Fed released the Beige Book this week.
5 of the 12 districts reporting flat or declining growth. We may be in for a bumpy ride.
mishtalk.com
PDF Download
5 of the 12 districts reporting flat or declining growth. We may be in for a bumpy ride.
5 out of 12 Fed Districts Show Flat or Declining Economic Growth
Let’s tune into the Fed’s Beige Book summary of economic activity in the twelve Federal reserve districts. Summary below from The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Co…
mishtalk.com
PDF Download
Thank you again my brother.
It's my horrible communication issues but I must have spoken incorrectly in my posts about my believe in that government's role is to take care of the people in a providing concept, but I don't believe that. I believe more in that government needs to concern themselves for the people. They are more a referee that ensures that everyone is protected from having their health endangered. They are more like a big brother that defends and fights for you only concerned about your well being, your access to common needs like roads vs motivated and profit driven which are private enterprise factors/motivators etc.
I believe in appropriate regulations but in concert with being business friendly but not exploitive and value dangerous.
Just business friendly to work out and be competitive compared to allowing them to dangerously exploit their surroundings or workforce or shoppers, etc.
I think the way our cities have been built over the past century is a really good example of believing that privatisation is the purest social benefactor. That's where we trusted our car industry to be the 'experts' in how to build our city infrastructure and they made us completely car dependent. They did their best to get rid of public transit (they bought out and destroyed the trolley system and damaged our bus system) while building suburban neighborhoods that didn't allow for social businesses, forced everyone to have to own a car, to have a packed garage and built roadways that were complicated cul de sacs that eliminated play areas and social areas that led everyone to be isolated and car dependent.
Then they pressed on pushing the need and desire of parking, which destroyed critical space in downtown areas across the country. Buildings and parks were demolished, cleared out for aggressive parking lots. This ended up costing cities a large amount of productivity because profitable, workable public space became blank parking areas, and they used a crazy aggressive formula of parking space forecasts.
Anyway, it hurt the profitability of cities but was positive for the revenues and growth the car industry.
That's what happens in general when we turn to industry leaders advice and leadership....they naturally push things that are most beneficial to their profits vs what is the most beneficial to our communities in my point of view.
Only because after running historical results July and August underperform than the other months. In particular August. I believe that it was something in general that the majority of great years grew early and July and August would get in at the high end of the good years. Fall was where most crashes would land (think of 1987, 9/11, Katrina in 05, or even of the original 29 crash. In general fall is the time that we just hoping we're not hit with a disaster that crashes the market but that's probably nonsense).
The importance of having an exit is highlighted from when I recalculated the growth back test starting from 1975. It was if you started with $50,000 when the NASDAQ formed around 1975, where would you end up if you traded the NASDAQ, the QQQ, the double Q QLD and the triple q TQQQ. I had to artificially build QQQ, QLD and TQQQ since they didn't exist....but the numbers were striking. Going off memory but the NASDAQ grew your $50k investment to something like 12 million compounded.
QLD the double Q was something like 35 million.
Triple Q was shockingly only something like $230 thousand. That was because it lost almost 100% from 2000 to 2003. Then got crushed again in 2008 but grew like a monster starting 2009, but since it was down to like 100 dollars in total, that massive loss in the early 2000's was just devastating.
When I recalculated with a 45% stop loss, I still would have lost a ton in the early 2000's but the compounded account was insane and ended up at like 400 million on back testing which was by far the most profitable. You just need some balls because yeah, bad years happen and losing 45% sucks balls but holy buckets good years with a triple leveraged security is so insanely profitable.
Why I strongly recommend not accounting the start of a year from one time frame like Jan 1st but split/divide the account into 10 pieces marking from the start of 10 months has maximized profit performance.
A great example being the COVID year. The market crashed aggressively that spring. I was 100% in to start 2020, but that spring hit my stop losses for the months of Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb and March. However, it didn't hit for the other months which meant that instead of 100% of my account being active, I had 50% of my account active.
The tech market snapped back aggressively and ended up making me a solid profit by the end of the year while giving me good prices when I got back in for the months that were stopped out which gave me a ridiculous 2021 profit season.
Had I just went all in at the start of the year, I would have been 100% in cash as the spring COVID scare crash would have stopped me 100% out. Then I would mentally been pissed off and depressed as the tech market snapped back but I would have missed for being completely out. Anyway, for me that's why I use multiple months as my key entry points.
I'm a total mature and I've messed around in my trading account doing dumb stuff like gambling on earning results or day trading per moving averages or other technical indicators but, I've never had the results and success close to what I've been able to do the last five years just managing the triple Q's like this.
That being said, this year has been amazing but the past two days have been dog shit terrible. I've lost more the past two days than I used to make in a year in my early corporate career.
Hopefully it's just a short phase.
There is an academic white paper out there called Leverage for the Long Run... Or something like that.... Did similar testing going back to the 1920s. Ideal leverage for just buying and holding was like 1.5x.
Volatility decay is a big issue with leveraged ETFs... But the good news is that we've found that volatility clusters...and it clusters in bear markets. And you could avoid a lot of the volatility decay by not holding LETFs when the overall market (SPY) is trading below it's 200 day SMA. End result is likely very similar to what you've found. Hold TQQQ or UPRO when above the 200 day.
Love it, thank you for the reference on the Leverage for the Long Run, I will definitely try to look it up and understand.
There is something going on with the triple Q to where it's not as bouncy as it used to be. It hasn't been getting perfect triple movements of the QQQ, they say it's part due to internal fees or other leverage instruments but I'm not familiar with them. I do know it hit it's all time high in late 2021 but just recently hit that after taking a massive dump in 2022. QQQ hit it's high a while ago so people were wondering how QQQ could break it's high and the leveraged TQQQ not even be close to its high (it eventually did hit that).
There is not only the fee cost of the ETF... There is the cost of the leverage. Those funds usually obtain their leverage via swap agreements with prime brokers and banks. Typically cost of leverage in those swap agreements is tied to LIBOR rate.
Prior to 2022 rates were basically zero so you could pretty which ignore the carry rate. Now your carry rate is in excess of 5%, most likely.
So they are trading something that is by definition worth zero?Speaking of crytpo....
Anyone familiar with ConstitutionDAO? A DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization with voting and finances run through a blockchain. In this instance, ConstitutionDAO was formed to buy one of the few privately held copies of the U.S. Constitution that was being auctioned at Sotheby's. They got several thousand people to pool together money, collecting ~$47 million. In exchange for their money, people received $People tokens (cryptocurrency). All those tokens would entitle them to do is vote on what to do with the copy of the Constitution. That's it. They wouldn't really even have an ownership stake in the Constituion.
Their bid to buy the Constitution was unsuccessful, as they lost out to someone who paid ~$42 million (plus fees, etc.). So, they then started refunding everyone's money - return the $People tokens and you get your money back. Though some of the people who only put in a small amount would effectively not get any money back because of the gas fees (the transaction fees on the Ethereum blockchain).
But....the $People crypto started trading on crypto markets - a day or two after they lost the auction. People were able to have huge gains on their initial "investment" in ConstitutionDAO. (And some saps took the refund rather than waiting.) At one point, the market cap for $People tokens hit over $600 million. Today, it sits at $408 million.
Insanity.
From a meme to $47 million: ConstitutionDAO, crypto, and the future of crowdfunding
ConstitutionDAO raised $47 million to try to govern a copy of the US Constitution on the blockchain.www.theverge.com
ConstitutionDAO price today, PEOPLE to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap
The live ConstitutionDAO price today is $0.06419 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $164,328,970.39 USD. We update our PEOPLE to USD price in real-time.coinmarketcap.com
Yes, sort of. But is t that true of all crypto? Kind of?
There are currently over 20,000 different cryptocurrencies. There are around 160 actual currencies in the world.
That's not even a pyramid scheme at this point. It's just mass delusion.
Arggggh. I had never in my life heard of a TQQQ until reading you guys talk about them here. I have not searched anywhere or even typed those letters until this post.
Now TQQQ is showing up in my reddit feed..... So, in short. EFF you big brother.
Now TQQQ is showing up in my reddit feed..... So, in short. EFF you big brother.
I thought the strategy was to buy 100,000 of those at $.03/coin and then unload them at $1.24, rinse, and repeat until you're knee-deep in hookers, blow, and pizza rolls.
It’s what’s happened with most of them. They pre-mine a bunch of coins, pump it and dump it. There might be some that have use cases and stick, but they’re called shitcoins by the OGs for a reason.
No big deal. I’ve lost and gained thousands on paper many days on many investments. Only counts if it’s down when you sell it.
OK, I think I understand you more, but in the case of cars and cities, no one ever considered cars when most cities started. It was all horse and buggy and horse-drawn carriages that operated like streetcars. How could they see that far into the future to plan for cars?
Of course vehicle manufacturers want to sell cars. But that's a consumer choice - public transportation has failed because of consumer choice. Evidently most want to sit in traffic for hours, rather than take public transportation, but that's their choice.
I just don't see it as some grand corporate design, and I don't see how government could have predicted the future enough to do anything about it.
I do wish Indiana would bring back the Interurban. My grandmother who lived on the farm, used to take the the horse and buggy to the Interurban station, which was in a small town close by, to the train station in Lafayette. From there, she could go to anywhere in the US and Canada (which they did fairly often).
It would take a lot of government subsidies and outright expenses to put in modern public transport infrastructure. Hell, Charlotte has spent billions on a light rail system that no one uses. And to add a proposed extension, it will be more billions. That's Billions with a B.
Yeah, pretty soon we Boomers won't be around to save your young asses.Fed released the Beige Book this week.
5 of the 12 districts reporting flat or declining growth. We may be in for a bumpy ride.
5 out of 12 Fed Districts Show Flat or Declining Economic Growth
Let’s tune into the Fed’s Beige Book summary of economic activity in the twelve Federal reserve districts. Summary below from The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Co…
PDF Download
They'll probably cut my payroll taxes since the medicare and SS claims will go down, right?Yeah, pretty soon we Boomers won't be around to save your young asses.
Dan wishful thinking to see the return of the Interurban, it would cost a fortune to get the right of ways. I'd be satisfied if we just keep the mail service, which helps a lot of rural people.
No problem acquiring right of ways - just use eminent domain laws like they do every time they want to put a new road in or expand an existing one.
I know it's a pipe dream. But imagine a rail line running between interstate lanes. Or a long the many walking trails in Indiana these days. The land and right of ways already exist.
I don't think flying cars are coming any time soon.
Seriously, if some place could prove viability, it might gain support. Carmel and Hamilton county would be a great place to put in a model system. Again, it won't happen in any of our lifetimes, but at some point, somethings got to give. You can only expand interstates and main roads so far. I465 around Indy is just a nightmare, and it's not as bad as many major cities.
Why don't you worry about Charlotte and let me worry about Carmel and Hamilton Co.
You've got Bloom all over it. That's why you need me.
A pipe dream is probably generous. The state legislature has actually banned light rail in the state. Flying pods are more likely than a passenger rail system being built in Indiana.
I wish we had a system. Going to Indy would be so much better to hop a train and read, watch a video on my phone, nap. For some reason people driving past me on the interstate get angered at me doing those things.
I agree with that. My 401k has been booming for almost 4 years. But, I don't think Joe Biden (or any president), has a significant long term impact on the stock market It is an indicator of something (could be bad or good), but long term, I don't think a president, good or bad, impacts the market. Yes, you have blips one way or the next, but it was stupid for trump to say the market would crash when Biden took over and it is stupid for Biden to take credit for a higher dow jones.
What is very much disturbing is the longish term disappearing middle class. Feels like the haves and the have nots, with a ton of asshole billionaires like Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, etc all getting fat
we spent two summers in Sweden with my kids playing soccer. We were in Gothenberg as our base of operations. The tram system is incredible and easy to navigate. Sometimes our games were 60 miles away--no problem there because their train system is fast, on time and clean. Absolutely loved that way to get around. For @larsIU --you would be impressed by the amount of meat smoking going in Sweden.
You should check out the trailer park.For @larsIU --you would be impressed by the amount of meat smoking going in Sweden.
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