How bout that stock market?

[Joe_Hoopsier]

My IRA (rollover 401K) and my brokerage account -- both roughly equal size -- both lost today, but not much, and both about the same. One is ~75% equities and the other is ~55% equities. I'm a simple man -- I check it every couple days just to see what it's doing, but don't get excited one way or the other. These will be the last things we'll have to tap when the time comes. I'm cash flow positive currently (barely) and have a few little chunks of cash stashed that are drawing interest that will come first.

I'm probably equal to or more simple than you are mark. I will guarantee that you have been to "town" or had a hair cut since I have.
I do check every day from my hermit cave, in BAMA, FAR away from that female choas that I built for myself. But that's another conversation.
My 401 changed providers about a year ago. I'm still employed, although I have no idea why. So doing all of the paper work, directing all of the admin bullshit, I wasn't sure of who what when or how much my stuff was going into. Also drinking 30 hours a week and working 50.. not much time left over.
Then I decided to cash in on a little windfall, assign that to a brokerage (Dave Ramsey recommended BTW) and then give him the controll over interacting with my 401 selections, it's been a bit of a hand full. (onl;y because that is what I do, always have, whether needed or not!).
So, with his controls, the 401 is going gangbusters, the brokerage not so much..
He was actually one of Dave's direct reports 20 years ago, a bit of a pencil neck, his kids are soccer kids.. argggh.. but I may have to set him down.
In short, it's been a bit complicated... farckin soccer kids...

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Yeah sorry you think it’s stupid to brag about gains. Because we all know you’d be on here whining if there were record losses.

We get it Zeke, you want to take a win. You aren't wrong, but you can't be allowed to win that easy. Work it just a bit more, and then we can probably let you take a little credit. It's just politics or dating.
Never give in the first time.

 

[TommyCracker]

So you liked the unnecessary 18% decline in 2022 due to rising rates to offset Bidenflation? And I assume you own no fixed income prior to 2022 as the AGG was down 13% in that year and yet to recover, the worst bond market ever.

My dad (your former client I think) and I have basically used TQQQ the past decade (the process is to mark each starting month except for July and August and give each point a 45% stop loss).

We've both have made ridiculous gains, enough that I was able to retire comfortably early.

Anyway what I hated about the Trump years was what I perceived as dumb chaos that hurt my markets. For example he'd tweet about Amazon and other bell cow companies that cost me stupid losses from a dumb tweet.

Secondly his tarrif war with China simply inflates the cost to supply vendors which gets passed on to retails because supply companies concern themselves on their revenues, meaning they pass those cost increases from the tarrifs to the retail price.

Anyway that's in case people don't get why tarrifs are considered major inflation impacts.

I bring up Trump because when wondering why tech stocks (which TQQQ is a tech dominant ETF that has treated me insanely well the last two years) took a complete dump today, the blurb I read said it was due to Trump's presidential odds and because Trump has threatened China tarrifs while also, and this is big, threatening Taiwan that he will not help them is China attacks them.

Obviously Taiwan is a major tech chip supplier and that freaked out the tech market today.

Which annoys the f out of me. I've gone from a crazy market high last week to a giant shit dump because of his chaos if this story is accurate.

I dispise the Trump chaos. I'd much prefer if he just shut the F up and stop throwing bombs on markets because of him picking fights, or pretending to be a tough guy that hurts markets.

Seriously his last reign you could literally play the Trump shit bomb impact and buy the dip.

That probably will be the case again which will annoy me again.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Yeah I’m going to pay off my car. No sense paying used car interest rates. Most of my friends are the same, but I know we are fortunate.

Why would you borrow $ for a car? CASH! ! ! !

 

[UncleMark]

But if they couldn't have paid them and had to do that, then what?

That's the price you pay for living on the edge I guess. If you're able to invest, you should be able to manage your money well enough to handle an inflation spike.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Why would you borrow $ for a car? CASH! ! ! !

This is generally not good advice.

 

[mcmurtry66]

That's the price you pay for living on the edge I guess. If you're able to invest, you should be able to manage your money well enough to handle an inflation spike.

participation may be high the amount invested isn’t

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

You likely should be in etf's as they are more tax efficient. Now maybe you don't want as much in equity etf's and want less risk by having bond etf's, but from what little you have said, you likely have mainly equity etf's. And I would guess you have quite a bit in the QQQ's if you were down 2%. But the QQQ's have been fantastic over the past 15 years.

Fack, I don't know, every time I start to understand, a life change happens and it all cahnges. As I get older, the longer it takes for me to totally understand it all. All I know today, is my brokarage is drasticaly underperforming my 401 and I don't like underperforming. Especially when both are supposed to be selected by they same guy.
But then again I understand diversification, gotta hedge the bet some times. Luckily the 401 is larger than the brokarage. I play short game, winners play long game. ... I've never been a winner before. We'll see.

 

[UncleMark]

Why would you borrow $ for a car? CASH! ! ! !

This is generally not good advice.

LOL. So borrowing money on a depreciating asset is smart?

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

LOL. So borrowing money on a depreciating asset is smart?

If you have the discretionary income to make car payments, yes. The 30K you’re going to drop on that purchase could be appreciating elsewhere.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

This is generally not good advice.

Borrowing isn't good, or paying cash is not good?

LEts borrow a fixed amount to pay for a commodity that is worth less, everyday and losses value faster than the payments are reduced if you only make the normal payment.
Nah, It's so much easier to never have to worry about, verses just saving up and oweing no one anything. SOrry man.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

If you have the discretionary income to make car payments, yes. The 30K you’re going to drop on that purchase could be appreciating elsewhere.

Untill it suddenly DOESN'T appreciate elsewhere, and the cost of making sure it always appreciates elswhere... You better have a 100% track record... and what is the cost of managing all of that "never not appreciate"... Nope not for me. I want to sleep at night. not worries.
But I'm not you. It all good.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Untill it suddenly DOESN'T appreciate elsewhere, and the cost of making sure it always appreciates elswhere... You better have a 100% track record... and what is the cost of managing all of that "never not appreciate"... Nope not for me. I want to sleep at night. not worries.
But I'm not you. It all good.

I don’t really keep 30K in cash anywhere, you and Mark shouldn’t either given your purported financial situations. Over the 3-7 year life of a car loan that money will be better served in a conservative brokerage account when interest rates are at normal levels.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

That's the price you pay for living on the edge I guess. If you're able to invest, you should be able to manage your money well enough to handle an inflation spike.

"Well you should have handled your money better" will win lots of votes, I'm sure.

Really, I'm just pointing out how I think the Dems are fooling themselves if they think the record market means voters are happy about their financial situations.

 

[Ty Webb iu]

Never thought I’d see over 41,000! Guess Biden didn’t tank it. Just another wrong Trump prediction. Thanks, Brandon! PS: 61% of the population own stock, so don’t tell me it just helps the very rich.

The stock market it controlled by the fed not the President. Dumb.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

I don’t really keep 30K in cash anywhere, you and Mark shouldn’t either given your purported financial situations. Over the 3-7 year life of a car loan that money will be better served in a conservative brokerage account when interest rates are at normal levels.

If I need to drive a 30K depreciating asset, then I sure as hell don't need to borrow 30k, I should be able to pay cash and it never effect any part of my life.
If I had a good mod of transportation, would I go borrow 30k to invest in the market and see how things went? That seems silly and open to all kinds of risk. If I win on the % of gain in the market, on 30k of 2-3 %... for all of my management I win $500-$1,000 ? Not worth the hassle when (not if) shit goes sideways.
But you've got a hell of a lot more to throw away than I do.

 

[Ty Webb iu]

Bitcoin is the path forward. That much we know. And if we ever get to a point where you can use it, like spend it, game over. Right now we’re killing it just on the emotional joy of holding it

I sense some sarcasm in this post…and I’m not happy about it. Bitcoin is the future. Own 1 before it’s too late!

 

[ribbont]

Fack, I don't know, every time I start to understand, a life change happens and it all cahnges. As I get older, the longer it takes for me to totally understand it all. All I know today, is my brokarage is drasticaly underperforming my 401 and I don't like underperforming. Especially when both are supposed to be selected by they same guy.
But then again I understand diversification, gotta hedge the bet some times. Luckily the 401 is larger than the brokarage. I play short game, winners play long game. ... I've never been a winner before. We'll see.

From your other post about him managing both, I'd say if your 401 is better than your brokerage, then that's how it should be and he's doing a good job. Risk, and thus capital gains, need to be in the 401.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

From your other post about him managing both, I'd say if your 401 is better than your brokerage, then that's how it should be and he's doing a good job. Risk, and thus capital gains, need to be in the 401.

I've not lost trust yet, but ..... (lol) just like everyone... I am going to ask him, why don't I just win on everything ?? .. hahaha..

I know the answer to that. This was a joke.

 

[ribbont]

My dad (your former client I think) and I have basically used TQQQ the past decade (the process is to mark each starting month except for July and August and give each point a 45% stop loss).

We've both have made ridiculous gains, enough that I was able to retire comfortably early.

Anyway what I hated about the Trump years was what I perceived as dumb chaos that hurt my markets. For example he'd tweet about Amazon and other bell cow companies that cost me stupid losses from a dumb tweet.

Secondly his tarrif war with China simply inflates the cost to supply vendors which gets passed on to retails because supply companies concern themselves on their revenues, meaning they pass those cost increases from the tarrifs to the retail price.

Anyway that's in case people don't get why tarrifs are considered major inflation impacts.

I bring up Trump because when wondering why tech stocks (which TQQQ is a tech dominant ETF that has treated me insanely well the last two years) took a complete dump today, the blurb I read said it was due to Trump's presidential odds and because Trump has threatened China tarrifs while also, and this is big, threatening Taiwan that he will not help them is China attacks them.

Obviously Taiwan is a major tech chip supplier and that freaked out the tech market today.

Which annoys the f out of me. I've gone from a crazy market high last week to a giant shit dump because of his chaos if this story is accurate.

I dispise the Trump chaos. I'd much prefer if he just shut the F up and stop throwing bombs on markets because of him picking fights, or pretending to be a tough guy that hurts markets.

Seriously his last reign you could literally play the Trump shit bomb impact and buy the dip.

That probably will be the case again which will annoy me again.

First, if you are using the trip q's, your taking a boatload of risk. It was down 79% in 2022, so I hope your weren't blaming Trump for that volatility.

Little reported news today was the administration considering using the little known foreign direct product rule. That probably had just as much impact on tech sell off as Trump's statement. But Trump’s an easy target an the story is understandable versus the FDPR.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-considering-tougher-trade-rules-chip-crackdown-china-bloomberg-news-reports-2024-07-17/

BTW - good to see you back on here. Have our 35th reunion next month. Wish we had you guys rockin' it.

 

[zeke4ahs]

The stock market it controlled by the fed not the President. Dumb.

Until the stock market does well under a Republican. Then it’s all them. Just ask Trump. ( speaking of dumb)

 

[ribbont]

Yeah I’m going to pay off my car. No sense paying used car interest rates. Most of my friends are the same, but I know we are fortunate.

Luckily under Trump, rates were low and I financed my used Audi for 1.9%. Now, with Bidenflation, well, you know, rates are through the roof.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Luckily under Trump, rates were low and I financed my used Audi for 1.9%. Now, with Bidenflation, well, you know, rates are through the roof.

Well I can pay mine off with my stock market gains, from the year luckily. Thanks, Joe.

 

[UncleMark]

Really, I'm just pointing out how I think the Dems are fooling themselves if they think the record market means voters are happy about their financial situations.

Perception vs. reality. People blame others for higher short term prices but don't account for their higher long term incomes.

 

[ribbont]

The stock market it controlled by the fed not the President. Dumb.

I disagree. It's controlled by us with supply and demand. Fed usually only raises or cuts based on economic data that is usually affected by policy decisions.

Decisions by Biden to kill energy and pass more stimulus and then IRA, helped to create economic conditions that forced the Fed to raise rates, albeit too late to contain Bidenflation.

 

[ribbont]

Well I can pay mine off with my stock market gains, from the year luckily. Thanks, Joe.

Yeah, I don't have to. So I can continue to leverage my dollars for better returns. But my inflation adjusted returns are not as good as they used to be, especially after the 18% market correction Biden helped cause in 2022.

 

[zeke4ahs]

I disagree. It's controlled by us with supply and demand. Fed usually only raises or cuts based on economic data that is usually affected by policy decisions.

Decisions by Biden to kill energy and pass more stimulus and then IRA, helped to create economic conditions that forced the Fed to raise rates, albeit too late to contain Bidenflation.

Bidenflation doesn’t really hit the same when it’s actually under 3%.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Bidenflation doesn’t really hit the same when it’s actually under 3%.

Huh?

 

[zeke4ahs]

Huh?

Because 3 is a pretty decent number…

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Perception vs. reality. People blame others for higher short term prices but don't account for their higher long term incomes.

Prices aren't going to come back down. There's nothing short term about that. And wage growth has been outpacing inflation for the past year, but is that enough to make up for the two years before that?

I dunno, I think it's more than just perception. I think people are doing, you know, okay, but they aren't doing as well as the Dems think they are.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Because 3 is a pretty decent number…

It’s up almost 20 percent since he took office

 

[ribbont]

Bidenflation doesn’t really hit the same when it’s actually under 3%.

It does when you financed your Audi for more than 1.9%. Rates are higher partly because of Biden. You are paying more, partly because of Biden. You paid a high price for the Audi, partly because of Biden.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Kai trump is going to do just fine in life. Skipped that goofy son

 

[ribbont]

Because 3 is a pretty decent number…

Yeah. It's only 50% higher than Trumpflation. Good grief.

 

[UncleMark]

Prices aren't going to come back down. There's nothing short term about that. And wage growth has been outpacing inflation for the past year, but is that enough to make up for the two years before that?

I dunno, I think it's more than just perception. I think people are doing, you know, okay, but they aren't doing as well as the Dems think they are.

Prices are leveling off. Wages are rising. And unless there's a recession with job losses, those gains will be retained long term.

Again, it's perception. It's like violent crime. It's down by huge amounts, but you'll never convince McM that's the case.

 

[BradStevens]

Prices are leveling off. Wages are rising. And unless there's a recession with job losses, those gains will be retained long term.

Again, it's perception. It's like violent crime. It's down by huge amounts, but you'll never convince McM that's the case.

That’s because national averages aren’t very relevant for people’s day to day experiences.

You have to look deeper than that.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-weighing-dimon-treasury-would-allow-powell-finish-term-bloomberg-2024-07-16/

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-weighing-dimon-treasury-would-allow-powell-finish-term-bloomberg-2024-07-16/

Can’t be. The administration will be filled with stupid sycophants. I’ve been told.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Prices are leveling off. Wages are rising. And unless there's a recession with job losses, those gains will be retained long term.

Again, it's perception. It's like violent crime. It's down by huge amounts, but you'll never convince McM that's the case.

Violent crime is down where progressive bs was reversed. It’s like you won’t acknowledge the free cheese policies had a deleterious impact. From crime to border to inflation no party has had worse policies than the Dems of 2020. Then they lost the house. But you’ll never admit that. It’s one word. Progressive

 

[UncleMark]

That’s because national averages aren’t very relevant for people’s day to day experiences.

You have to look deeper than that.

I think you mean I need to be more superficial and not look at the big picture.