Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults

[cosmickid]

I think a large reason for optimism for (Pres-Elect) Biden in PA is that the outstanding count is mail in. PA early vote is almost prohibitively pro-Dem, and there are plenty of outstanding votes in solid Blue areas around Philly and the suburbs.

In addition, the "red-leaning" Counties almost uniformly reported their election day vote first, and even they have outstanding mail votes. That's even a huge plus for Biden, given that Dems were the main participants in mail voting, even in "red" areas...

We don't know for sure the (pro-Biden) trend regarding mail votes will continue, but the trend is very strong. I heard that in EVERY single state (except the Dakotas) Biden WON the mail vote and conversely (aside from CA, NY, and IL) Trump won the election day vote. So if Biden ends up winning (as I believe he has) he actually won the election in the early vote...

So bravo to Mich Sec of State Benson. She just explicitly pointed out that it was the GOP LEGISLATURE that would not allow them to process mail votes the day before election day (like they do in Ohio) so that they would be able to complete their count on ELECTION DAY LIKE Ohio. Ohio has about 2 MILLION more people than Michigan, so obviously had the GOP LEGISLATURE allowed the ballots to be processed, then Trump likely would not have even had his (mirage) "lead" at 4 am when he made his reckless attack on Democracy...

Coincidentally, this is the exact same scenario in PA as well. Dem Governors and Sec of States (elected by a statewide vote) attempted to apply common sense and streamline the process by allowing the counties to open and process the mail votes prior to election day. (Like they do in states like FL, OH, etc)...

But in both MI and PA, GOP Legislators (elected by a small percentage of the state) thwarted attempts by people elected by the ENTIRE STATE to make this process more timely and efficient. And then with unprecedented hypocrisy, these same Republicans (at least Trump) complain about the vote-counting taking "too long", which is the situation THEY themselves have CAUSED.

 

[mcmurtry66]

These lawsuits are dumb. Sad.

 

[Fro]

Ralston thinks what is left in mail ballots should be mainly Clark County, which should be heavy Dem

Is NV needed to make the 270 on the nose scenario?

Yes MI/WI + AZ/NV is the 270 scenario.

 

[Bill4411]

Garry Kasparov on Russia's reaction to a Biden win:

 

[UncleMark]

Is NV needed to make the 270 on the nose scenario?

Yep.

Thanks. I thought so but wasn't sure.

PA doesn't look good, and I'm not confident about GA or NC either, so with Wi and MI going (barely) Biden that 270 on the nose scenario may be what we end up seeing.

 

[Bill4411]

Thanks. I thought so but wasn't sure.

PA doesn't look good, and I'm not confident about GA or NC either, so with Wi and MI going (barely) Biden that 270 on the nose scenario may be what we end up seeing.

Life is so unfair!!

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Thanks. I thought so but wasn't sure.

PA doesn't look good, and I'm not confident about GA or NC either, so with Wi and MI going (barely) Biden that 270 on the nose scenario may be what we end up seeing.

I think PA is lost, I saw on 538 that the number of votes still in Philly is less than what the NYTimes is reporting. If it is the smaller amount, I wouldn't think there is enough. BUT, late votes can be counted and if those votes are on their way, it is possible.

 

[UncleMark]

Life is so unfair!!

Trump might just nuke Omaha on his way out the door.

 

[Bowlmania]

Thanks. I thought so but wasn't sure.

PA doesn't look good, and I'm not confident about GA or NC either, so with Wi and MI going (barely) Biden that 270 on the nose scenario may be what we end up seeing.

New York Times reports there are still 1.4 million absentee ballots outstanding in PA, and the absentee ballots counted so far have gone to Biden by an overwhelming margin. The fat lady hasn't yet sung in PA.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

If Biden wins, I wonder if someone will create a meme of Biden holding up a newspaper with a pic of Trump and the headline "Trump Defeats Biden"?

 

[UncleMark]

I wonder if anyone has told Trump that if they stop counting right now that he loses?

 

[Bill4411]

Trump might just nuke Omaha on his way out the door.

Hoosiers should be pretty safe since we were the first state that went for Trump. Not guaranteed though as anything is possible with Captain Chaos.

 

[Cortez88]

Hoosiers should be pretty safe since we were the first state that went for Trump. Not guaranteed though as anything is possible with Captain Chaos.

That was a real proud moment there. We beat Kentucky the board.

 

[Fro]

478k outstanding mail ballots in NC which haven't been received yet (they count if they arrive before Nov 12th if postmarked yesterday). Probably a lot of them won't be mailed in, but there's those in addition to any other outstanding votes there.

 

[UncleMark]

WI Elections Commission administrator says that save for one tiny (pop 300) township all votes have been reported. That should lock WI down for Biden.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

IF this holds, will there be a stimulus passed before January 20? After January 20?

 

[outside shooter]

Hoosiers should be pretty safe since we were the first state that went for Trump. Not guaranteed though as anything is possible with Captain Chaos.

Let's see how soon he calls the Proud Boys into service. Just avoid the usual right wing terror targets, such as black churches, Federal buildings, busy street crowds that can be targeted by out of control cars/trucks, and also don't hang around any Dem governors and maybe you can avoid being kidnapped.

 

[mrhighlife]

Hoosiers should be pretty safe since we were the first state that went for Trump. Not guaranteed though as anything is possible with Captain Chaos.

Us in The Region arent so sure about that.

 

[Harry Hondo]

IF this holds, will there be a stimulus passed before January 20? After January 20?

One thing is for sure, Trump is not gonna do a damn thing as President the next two and a half months, but focus on his fight to overturn the election. He'll continue to hold rallies so he has a public forum to air his grievances to his adoring fans. It'll be interesting to see how he handles a stimulus package from Congress. Will he be eager to sign it and help us out?

President Trump has a plan to continue holding rallies after Election Day, says report

President Donald Trump could continue holding campaign rallies after Election Day if no winner is immediately declared, Politico reported.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Marvin the Martian]

One thing is for sure, Trump is not gonna do a damn thing as President the next two and a half months, but focus on his fight to overturn the election. He'll continue to hold rallies so he has a public forum to air his grievances to his adoring fans. It'll be interesting to see how he handles a stimulus package from Congress. Will he be eager to sign it and help us out?

President Trump has a plan to continue holding rallies after Election Day, says report

President Donald Trump could continue holding campaign rallies after Election Day if no winner is immediately declared, Politico reported.

www.businessinsider.com

I think at some point he will be told that his actions will impact his space on Mt Rushmore and face on the new dollar bill. In other words, I think he will learn his place in history is on the line.

 

[cosmickid]

WI Elections Commission administrator says that save for one tiny (pop 300) township all votes have been reported. That should lock WI down for Biden.

I think we can count on Trump calling for an "official recount"... He'll likely do so in any of these states he loses within the "recount margin" because he really wants to avoid impending legal problems...

"With Election Day approaching and his poll numbers still flagging, President Donald Trump has allegedly begun to express concerns to aides about the potential criminal liabilities which may await him in a post-White House life.

The threats are broad: Trump's businesses are currently under investigation by the New York State attorney general and the Manhattan District Attorney's office for possible tax and financial crimes. He is also worried about the potential for new federal investigations, And according to a newly report from The New York Times.


Trump has reportedly expressed these concerns to advisers "for weeks." Aside from the known state and local probes, The Times did not specify which specific liabilities might have unnerved the president at the federal level.

The difference is significant, because presidential pardons only apply to federal crimes; they do not extend to state and local levels."

President Trump tells advisers that he fears prosecution if he loses the election: report

Trump fears not only the state and local investigations already underway but also possible new federal probes

www.yahoo.com

 

[El Drado]

I think he will learn his place in history is on the line.

I am hoping the future goes like this, "that was a thing right?..trump was president?....it feels like a couple years ago, hard to believe we haven't had a racist president in 24 years."

 

[UncleMark]

Hearing that the Biden margin in WI is small enough for a recount and the Pubs are going to ask for one.

 

[Stuffshot]

I think we can count on Trump calling for an "official recount"... He'll likely do so in any of these states he loses within the "recount margin" because he really wants to avoid impending legal problems...

"With Election Day approaching and his poll numbers still flagging, President Donald Trump has allegedly begun to express concerns to aides about the potential criminal liabilities which may await him in a post-White House life.

The threats are broad: Trump's businesses are currently under investigation by the New York State attorney general and the Manhattan District Attorney's office for possible tax and financial crimes. He is also worried about the potential for new federal investigations, And according to a newly report from The New York Times.


Trump has reportedly expressed these concerns to advisers "for weeks." Aside from the known state and local probes, The Times did not specify which specific liabilities might have unnerved the president at the federal level.

The difference is significant, because presidential pardons only apply to federal crimes; they do not extend to state and local levels."

President Trump tells advisers that he fears prosecution if he loses the election: report

Trump fears not only the state and local investigations already underway but also possible new federal probes

www.yahoo.com

If it's true that Trump is concerned about prosecution if he loses the election, there is no reason to expect him to resign early.

 

[mcmurtry66]

If it's true that Trump is concerned about prosecution if he loses the election, there is no reason to expect him to resign early.

Unless he brokers a quid pro quo concede for pardon. But that assumes a lot

 

[IUJIM]

Let's see how soon he calls the Proud Boys into service. Just avoid the usual right wing terror targets, such as black churches, Federal buildings, busy street crowds that can be targeted by out of control cars/trucks, and also don't hang around any Dem governors and maybe you can avoid being kidnapped.

Such a Bullshit post

 

[hoosboot]

Such a Bullshit post

Always so enlightening to see where you draw the line.

 

[twenty02]

Hearing that the Biden margin in WI is small enough for a recount and the Pubs are going to ask for one.

There was one in 2016, and it changed like 300 votes. Guess I'm confused why this race isn't called.... the state says they are done counting.

 

[HillzHoozier]

MI adds 138K Biden votes and zero for Trump. Does that seem like a statistical possibility?

Let's see how soon he calls the Proud Boys into service. Just avoid the usual right wing terror targets, such as black churches, Federal buildings, busy street crowds that can be targeted by out of control cars/trucks, and also don't hang around any Dem governors and maybe you can avoid being kidnapped.

Dumb

 

[TommyCracker]

While Trump land is predictably claiming fraud in only the states they lost of course.....the Post is saying that there were 300,000 mail ballots that went missing, interestingly in key spots across the country.

 

[Spartans9312]

MI adds 138K Biden votes and zero for Trump. Does that seem like a statistical possibility?

Dumb

Where did this info come from?
I ask because my brother said the same thing.

 

[stollcpa]

Yep.

Trump needs to shut up and accept whatever happens.

 

[Sope Creek]

MI adds 138K Biden votes and zero for Trump. Does that seem like a statistical possibility?

Dumb

Sure, why wouldn't it be?

(1) In counting, it's entirely plausible for election officials to put one candidate's votes in one pile, and the other candidate's votes in a different pile. When those get added, they'd clearly be an x to 0 kind of change.

(2) Some precincts are genuinely x to 0 places.

(3) You got any proof, or even any evidence, that anything fraudulent has happened? Unless you do, those votes are just as good as any other votes.

 

[twenty02]

Where did this info come from?
I ask because my brother said the same thing.

I've seen it floating around the Twitterverse.... but just from randoms.

 

[Spartans9312]

Two questions:
1. Did Spartz win?
2. Did the polls suck or am I too dumb to properly understand what they were saying?

 

[Sope Creek]

Trump needs to shut up and accept whatever happens.

I don't think so . . . this result is perfect for Trump. He gets to whine about everything and anything while passing the responsibility for the country's problems off onto someone else. Plus he gets to sow more division and discord in the country . . . and he can get a pat on the head, maybe some debt forgiveness, from Putin.

 

[stollcpa]

I don't think so . . . this result is perfect for Trump. He gets to whine about everything and anything while passing the responsibility for the country's problems off onto someone else. Plus he gets to sow more division and discord in the country . . . and he can get a pat on the head, maybe some debt forgiveness, from Putin.

I ranted this morning. I am over it. We do need better way.

 

[IUJIM]

Always so enlightening to see where you draw the line.

Right wing terror targets like black churches? Yea, sorry, don't think so

 

[Sope Creek]

Two questions:
1. Did Spartz win?
2. Did the polls suck or am I too dumb to properly understand what they were saying?

1. Believe so.
2. Polls suck, but largely because algorithms ain't perfect at predicting human behavior . . .
. . . and you're too dumb to understand what they were saying. It's not an either/or. 😁

Polls apologists will come in with statistical arguments about variances, and such. But pollsters do suck.

 

[Cortez88]

Two questions:
1. Did Spartz win?
2. Did the polls suck or am I too dumb to properly understand what they were saying?

1. yes
2. Yes. There needs to be a reckoning here.