Georgia

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden up 7. Also has Ossoff over 50% in the regular Senate election, and gives Warnock the win in hypothetical head-to-head runoffs against both Loeffler and Collins in the special election.

On the other hand, the new WXIA/SurveyUSA poll has Biden only up 2, gives Perdue a slight lead, and also has Warnock in the lead, but did not ask about potential runoffs.

Also from Quinnipiac, Ohio is effectively tied, with Biden holding a 48-47 lead.

Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll

Quinnipiac University Poll’s list of recent and past poll results for political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern.

poll.qu.edu

 

[Circlejoe]

A Democratic Senator from Georgia would be very helpful! My fear would be that the Democrats would need that seat in a runoff election in January to hold a majority. Talk about a national focus on a senate race!

 

[twenty02]

New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden up 7. Also has Ossoff over 50% in the regular Senate election, and gives Warnock the win in hypothetical head-to-head runoffs against both Loeffler and Collins in the special election.

On the other hand, the new WXIA/SurveyUSA poll has Biden only up 2, gives Perdue a slight lead, and also has Warnock in the lead, but did not ask about potential runoffs.

Also from Quinnipiac, Ohio is effectively tied, with Biden holding a 48-47 lead.

Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll

Quinnipiac University Poll’s list of recent and past poll results for political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern.

poll.qu.edu

 

[The Vid]

View embedded media

Going to be hilarious to watch Texas flip during the next few election cycles.

 

[twenty02]

What's amazing to me is how narrow the EC map has gotten for the GOP. So many swing states from 15-20 years ago are not even really contestable, and are comfortably blue (VA, CO, NM, NH)

Missouri is the only state that's gone the opposite direction.... from a bellwether swing state to steadily red.

Now we are debating places like GA, NC and TX.... that's very dubious. I continue to believe that the GOP is heading towards a long winter when it comes to Presidential politics, the detour of 2016 being put aside. The map is simply a disaster for them.... and requires hitting an inside straight to win. Certainly not impossible, but need basically everything to align.

Obviously the Texas situation is a death blow in the EC if it were to ever come to pass.

 

[Morrison]

New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden up 7. Also has Ossoff over 50% in the regular Senate election, and gives Warnock the win in hypothetical head-to-head runoffs against both Loeffler and Collins in the special election.

On the other hand, the new WXIA/SurveyUSA poll has Biden only up 2, gives Perdue a slight lead, and also has Warnock in the lead, but did not ask about potential runoffs.

Also from Quinnipiac, Ohio is effectively tied, with Biden holding a 48-47 lead.

Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll

Quinnipiac University Poll’s list of recent and past poll results for political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern.

poll.qu.edu

I know Silver publishes the average of all the polls. That makes me uncomfortable for some reason, although it probably shouldn’t. Which polling firm do you think is most accurate, or even skews a little to the Pubs?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

SurveyUSA has a new Indiana poll out, 49-42 Trump. Indiana is decidedly not in play but that is -12 from 2016.

 

[twenty02]

I know Silver publishes the average of all the polls. That makes me uncomfortable for some reason, although it probably shouldn’t. Which polling firm do you think is most accurate, or even skews a little to the Pubs?

Silver "grades" each of the polling firms in his methodology, based upon past accuracy. And polling is only a portion of his predictive model, anyway.

Nobody really thinks Biden is up 7 in GA.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

SurveyUSA has a new Indiana poll out, 49-42 Trump. Indiana is decidedly not in play but that is -12 from 2016.

Did you see the insane numbers for Guv in that poll?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I know Silver publishes the average of all the polls. That makes me uncomfortable for some reason, although it probably shouldn’t. Which polling firm do you think is most accurate, or even skews a little to the Pubs?

I prefer to go by what people like Silver are saying rather than follow individual pollsters. Pollsters provide data, but models provide the cold arithmetic needed to interpret that data. I only started this thread because Georgia is such a crucial state, and Quinnipiac seems to do respected work. However, I made it a point to include the WXIA poll, too, as QU may be an outlier.

 

[Stuffshot]

What's amazing to me is how narrow the EC map has gotten for the GOP. So many swing states from 15-20 years ago are not even really contestable, and are comfortably blue (VA, CO, NM, NH)

Missouri is the only state that's gone the opposite direction.... from a bellwether swing state to steadily red.

Now we are debating places like GA, NC and TX.... that's very dubious. I continue to believe that the GOP is heading towards a long winter when it comes to Presidential politics, the detour of 2016 being put aside. The map is simply a disaster for them.... and requires hitting an inside straight to win. Certainly not impossible, but need basically everything to align.

Obviously the Texas situation is a death blow in the EC if it were to ever come to pass.

Missouri is McMurtry's state, right? He blames many things on a lockdown in one county, but not the next county..

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Silver "grades" each of the polling firms in his methodology, based upon past accuracy. And polling is only a portion of his predictive model, anyway.

Nobody really thinks Biden is up 7 in GA.

Polling makes up the backbone, however, especially this close to the election. The fundamentals gradually diminish to zero, and what makes Silver's model more than just poll aggregation is how he tweaks the polls and their weights, rather than the inclusion of any non-polling data.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Did you see the insane numbers for Guv in that poll?

Myers' number (25%) makes me think there is not a sampling issue in the presidential poll.

It does not surprise me. I get all sorts of ads for Weinzapfel, nothing for Meyers. The other day I had to pause to remember who the governor candidate was.

I am growing disillusioned with Holcomb's response. We are at very high numbers and at stage 5. I get not going back to 1 or 2, but 3 or 4 sound very credible.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Myers' number (25%) makes me think there is not a sampling issue in the presidential poll.

It does not surprise me. I get all sorts of ads for Weinzapfel, nothing for Meyers. The other day I had to pause to remember who the governor candidate was.

I am growing disillusioned with Holcomb's response. We are at very high numbers and at stage 5. I get not going back to 1 or 2, but 3 or 4 sound very credible.

I get the impression that Holcomb has bent his will slightly to the state party. I don't think he needed to do that for electoral purposes, but my guess is he just naturally doesn't want to alienate too many allies. Especially since he won't be eligible to run again in 2024.

 

[Morrison]

Polling makes up the backbone, however, especially this close to the election. The fundamentals gradually diminish to zero, and what makes Silver's model more than just poll aggregation is how he tweaks the polls and their weights, rather than the inclusion of any non-polling data.

This is a really good explanation. Thanks. Basically, Silver breaths life and meaning into already well mined data.

I hope they account for the “children of the corn” that come out of the woods in PA, MI, IA, and WI to vote for Trump in unison. These people don’t usually answer pollsters calls, or answer honestly when they do.

On a side note, I worry when I hear Biden wants to expand the map. I’m all for it, but I remember Hillary campaigning in NC and similar places at the end of her campaign. Don’t start your #2 pitcher in game 6 to save your ace for a game 7 you may not get to. If Biden secures PA, MI, WI, Trump can’t win. I want FL, NC, IA, OH, GA and AZ too, but make damn sure you have the win locked up first.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Did you see the insane numbers for Guv in that poll?

What were they?
As I stood in line, I still wasn't decided on who to vote for in the Guv race. I like Holcomb, and he has been a good leader during the pandemic, but like you, I wanted to send a message to the GOP for putting up a total trainwreck/dumpster fire for POTUS, and continuing to support him.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

On a side note, I worry when I hear Biden wants to expand the map. I’m all for it, but I remember Hillary campaigning in NC and similar places at the end of her campaign. Don’t start your #2 pitcher in game 6 to save your ace for a game 7 you may not get to. If Biden secures PA, MI, WI, Trump can’t win. I want FL, NC, IA, OH, GA and AZ too, but make damn sure you have the win locked up first.

Actually, in this case, I think the campaign isn't running up the score as much as they are making back-up plans. Because Biden does so much better with blacks and old white people than Hillary did, certain states are in play that weren't so much for her. Winning those states gives Biden an alternative path to victory, should attempts to win back the Upper Midwest fail.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

What were they?
As I stood in line, I still wasn't decided on who to vote for in the Guv race. I like Holcomb, and he has been a good leader during the pandemic, but like you, I wanted to send a message to the GOP for putting up a total trainwreck/dumpster fire for POTUS, and continuing to support him.

Holcomb 55, Myers 25, Rainwater 10. Holcomb's total favs/unfavs was 67-24. That +43 spread is 38 points better than Trump and 33 points better than Pence.

Bonus questions that might surprise you:
Approve/disapprove of face mask requirement: 75-22.
Approve/disapprove of Roe v. Wade being upheld: 58-27.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Approve/disapprove of Roe v. Wade being upheld: 58-27.

@Marvin the Martian

BTW, I think this line right here really says something about the Democrats in Indiana. A sample that supports Roe at a 58% clip also supports Trump with 51%? Perhaps abortion isn't driving nearly as much of the Democrats' problems in states like ours as we assume. I'm guessing Trump's 51% overlaps very strongly with the 51% who said their top issue was either the economy or crime/safety.

 

[Stuffshot]

I get the impression that Holcomb has bent his will slightly to the state party. I don't think he needed to do that for electoral purposes, but my guess is he just naturally doesn't want to alienate too many allies. Especially since he won't be eligible to run again in 2024.

As I said a few days ago, Holcomb has become a Trump facilitator, without necessarily being an outright Trump supporter. A few days ago, Holcomb started cancelling/minimizing his discussions of the newest stats on the Covid in Indiana.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

O/U on how much money pours into Georgia if both Senate races go to runoffs?

Will Georgia Turn Blue?

For all the turmoil in the country this year, our presidential election forecast has been remarkably stable. Dating back to June 1, the first date that we ran t…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Spartans9312]

New Quinnipiac poll shows Biden up 7. Also has Ossoff over 50% in the regular Senate election, and gives Warnock the win in hypothetical head-to-head runoffs against both Loeffler and Collins in the special election.

On the other hand, the new WXIA/SurveyUSA poll has Biden only up 2, gives Perdue a slight lead, and also has Warnock in the lead, but did not ask about potential runoffs.

Also from Quinnipiac, Ohio is effectively tied, with Biden holding a 48-47 lead.

Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll

Quinnipiac University Poll’s list of recent and past poll results for political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern.

poll.qu.edu

I'm curious to see what happens in GA-7

 

[zeke4ahs]

What's amazing to me is how narrow the EC map has gotten for the GOP. So many swing states from 15-20 years ago are not even really contestable, and are comfortably blue (VA, CO, NM, NH)

Missouri is the only state that's gone the opposite direction.... from a bellwether swing state to steadily red.

Now we are debating places like GA, NC and TX.... that's very dubious. I continue to believe that the GOP is heading towards a long winter when it comes to Presidential politics, the detour of 2016 being put aside. The map is simply a disaster for them.... and requires hitting an inside straight to win. Certainly not impossible, but need basically everything to align.

Obviously the Texas situation is a death blow in the EC if it were to ever come to pass.

I’m still gun shy after 2016, but those that predicted Trump would kill the Republican Party for the near future seem pretty prescient.

 

[cosmickid]

O/U on how much money pours into Georgia if both Senate races go to runoffs?

Will Georgia Turn Blue?

For all the turmoil in the country this year, our presidential election forecast has been remarkably stable. Dating back to June 1, the first date that we ran t…

fivethirtyeight.com

I'm pretty sure the Ossoff/Perdue race is winner take all. The race with Loeffler is a "special election" because she was initially appointed to fill Isakson's seat before it was completed. But Perdue is defending his seat as his term expires, and unless GA has some crazy recount provision I'm unaware of that seat will be filled once the winner is declared.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I'm pretty sure the Ossoff/Perdue race is winner take all. The race with Loeffler is a "special election" because she was initially appointed to fill Isakson's seat before it was completed. But Perdue is defending his seat as his term expires, and unless GA has some crazy recount provision I'm unaware of that seat will be filled once the winner is declared.

Georgia requires 50%+ to avoid a runoff.

 

[Cortez88]

@Marvin the Martian

BTW, I think this line right here really says something about the Democrats in Indiana. A sample that supports Roe at a 58% clip also supports Trump with 51%? Perhaps abortion isn't driving nearly as much of the Democrats' problems in states like ours as we assume. I'm guessing Trump's 51% overlaps very strongly with the 51% who said their top issue was either the economy or crime/safety.

Does anyone have a link to the IN polling info you guys are discussing?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Does anyone have a link to the IN polling info you guys are discussing?

SurveyUSA Election Poll #25599

 

[Cortez88]

Thank you

 

[Neves]

SurveyUSA Election Poll #25599

56% of Hoosiers think that Marijuana should be legal for recreational and medicinal purposes.
How do we get this on the ballot for 2022 or 2024??

 

[mrhighlife]

56% of Hoosiers think that Marijuana should be legal for recreational and medicinal purposes.
How do we get this on the ballot for 2022 or 2024??

I could be completely wrong but I don't believe Indiana laws allow for such ballot initiatives. Any marijuana laws would have to be through legislation in the Indiana House and Senate. Similar to how Illinois passed there laws.

 

[The Vid]

56% of Hoosiers think that Marijuana should be legal for recreational and medicinal purposes.
How do we get this on the ballot for 2022 or 2024??

Indiana will be the last state to figure out how to make that happen. Didn’t they just figure out liquor on Sundays or is that still a thing? Can you still smoke in Applebee’s? I kid... I spent my first 22 years there, so I’m a Hoosier til the end. I like living in a state with legal tweeds though, and I don’t see myself ever moving to a illegal state given the corresponding politics and people. Maybe TX because I like Austin.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Indiana will be the last state to figure out how to make that happen. Didn’t they just figure out liquor on Sundays or is that still a thing? Can you still smoke in Applebee’s? I kid... I spent my first 22 years there, so I’m a Hoosier til the end. I like living in a state with legal tweeds though, and I don’t see myself ever moving to a illegal state given the corresponding politics and people. Maybe TX because I like Austin.

We figured out the Sunday liquor when the grocery stores and the liquor stores got together to use the power of the state to screw convenience stores.

 

[Sope Creek]

Georgia requires 50%+ to avoid a runoff.

This is correct.

 

[The Vid]

I could be completely wrong but I don't believe Indiana laws allow for such ballot initiatives. Any marijuana laws would have to be through legislation in the Indiana House and Senate. Similar to how Illinois passed there laws.

I think Illinois was the first non ballot initiative state to go legal. It’s still trying to figure things out, but inventory issues, lines, etc. have passed. It’s not CO or CA yet, but solid. There is a dispensary downtown with a free parking lot and hardly any lines which is surreal to me and will be for at least a few years. One of the biggest bars in Wrigleyville, formally Barleycorn, is about to be “one of the biggest dispensary’s in the world.” Cubs games will be interesting... maybe better if the drunks get high instead.

 

[Neves]

I could be completely wrong but I don't believe Indiana laws allow for such ballot initiatives. Any marijuana laws would have to be through legislation in the Indiana House and Senate. Similar to how Illinois passed there laws.

I actually don't know how it works in Indiana either... I just wish we could get with the times. It seems like the majority wants it based on the polling

 

[Sope Creek]

I'm curious to see what happens in GA-7

Good call. The most recent polls I've seen were so long ago (June, 2020) that they're meaningless. Bordeaux has had a pretty good campaign, and there are ads running here from PACs that are trashing both Bordeaux and McCormick. I'm not in that district . . . I gotta say that McCormick's ads look like they're playing catch up . . . almost like campaigning is an afterthought for him. As an example of what I mean, one ad has him talking about how being an ER doc requires making life or death decisions in seconds . . . that has nothing to do with what what members of congress actually do. In fact, my reaction was that I'd prefer a candidate who spends a little time thinking things over.

No idea how the race is actually going though . . . in 2016 Bordeaux came within a whisker of beating the incumbent, Woodall, and that close race is what caused Woodall to decide to retire. If you forced me to handicap this race, I'd say Bordeaux in a close one . . . .

 

[twenty02]

I could be completely wrong but I don't believe Indiana laws allow for such ballot initiatives. Any marijuana laws would have to be through legislation in the Indiana House and Senate. Similar to how Illinois passed there laws.

Correct.... there is no mechanism for citizen driven ballot initiatives in Indiana. Our overlords don't trust us to make any decisions.

Indiana won't do anything until the Federal govt changes federal law. Then I'm sure they'll rush to get a piece, just like with sports betting.

 

[dbmhoosier]

SurveyUSA Election Poll #25599

There were several polls from Indiana in 2016 right before the election showing Trump with a 9 point lead. He won it by almost 20.

 

[Sope Creek]

There were several polls from Indiana in 2016 right before the election showing Trump with a 9 point lead. He won it by almost 20.

OK . . . and your point is?

BTW, it's 2020 . . . .

 

[Spartans9312]

Good call. The most recent polls I've seen were so long ago (June, 2020) that they're meaningless. Bordeaux has had a pretty good campaign, and there are ads running here from PACs that are trashing both Bordeaux and McCormick. I'm not in that district . . . I gotta say that McCormick's ads look like they're playing catch up . . . almost like campaigning is an afterthought for him. As an example of what I mean, one ad has him talking about how being an ER doc requires making life or death decisions in seconds . . . that has nothing to do with what what members of congress actually do. In fact, my reaction was that I'd prefer a candidate who spends a little time thinking things over.

No idea how the race is actually going though . . . in 2016 Bordeaux came within a whisker of beating the incumbent, Woodall, and that close race is what caused Woodall to decide to retire. If you forced me to handicap this race, I'd say Bordeaux in a close one . . . .

I know the demographics have changed a little for the district but wouldn't this normally be a district where the Republican would be the favorite?
I'm curious to see if McCormick has better results than Trump does in the district.