Election predictions...who do you have?
- Thread starter Circlejoe
- Start date
You know when IU plays Northwestern in basketball? You are like, "IU should win, everything points in that direction", but you don't feel great about it. That is how i feel.
Honestly, if it wasn't for abortion i think Biden would win bigly. For some reason if you are pro life you, by divine intervention, you need to vote republican ...any republican
Honestly, if it wasn't for abortion i think Biden would win bigly. For some reason if you are pro life you, by divine intervention, you need to vote republican ...any republican
2010 United States elections - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
So this is the extremely accurate statement that twenty made...
The Dems have swept basically every significant / closely contested election that's occurred since Trump was elected. I don't see that magically changing in the next month or so.... how many people are actually undecided? Seems unlikely to be many whatsoever.
In response, you linked a wiki about the 2010 midterms, so I'm not sure of your point?
Pubs kicked arse in 2010 but Obama wasn't running then. Just like DJT wasn't running in 2018.
Took me a while, but I'm guessing he's reminding us Obama won in 2012.
You're smart. Republicans also kicked butt in 1994. But no one ever responded to my original point. Trump is supposedly the most racist President we've ever had yet he's doing a lot better with Hispanics and slightly better with blacks than in 2016. So if he's down that means his support among whites has dropped significantly. Do you buy that?
2010 United States elections - Wikipedia
RealClearPolitics - President Trump, President Obama Job Approval
RealClearPolitics - President Trump, President Obama Job Approval
I think your calculations are pretty accurate. Even polls showing Trump closing the gap in some battleground states still have Biden well above the EC threshold. And early on it's looking like Trump's attacks on mail in voting have had an adverse effect on his voters and energized Biden voters. Including people who sat out 2016...
"Democrats are amassing an enormous lead in early voting, alarming Republicans who worry they’ll need to orchestrate a huge Election Day turnout during a deadly coronavirus outbreak to answer the surge.
The Democratic dominance spreads across an array of battleground states, according to absentee ballot request data compiled by state election authorities and analyzed by Democratic and Republican data experts. In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats have a roughly three-to-one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballot requests. In Florida — a must-win for President Donald Trump — the Democratic lead stands at more than 700,000 ballot requests, while the party also leads in New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa.
Even more concerning for Republicans, Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 are requesting 2020 ballots at higher rates than their GOP counterparts. The most striking example is Pennsylvania, where nearly 175,000 Democrats who sat out the last race have requested ballots, more than double the number of Republicans, according to an analysis of voter rolls by the Democratic firm TargetSmart.
Though the figures are preliminary, they provide a window into Democratic enthusiasm ahead of the election and offer a warning for Republicans. While Democrats stockpile votes and bring in new supporters, Trump’s campaign is relying on a smooth Election Day turnout operation at a time when it’s confronting an out-of-control pandemic and a mounting cash crunch."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-build-big-edge-early-235554978.html
Makes sense. I gotta admit that I've been winning so much lately even I am getting a little sick of winning.
You keep citing these "polls" showing your contentions, but you never link them. And yes poll after poll shows Trump losing support among key "white" groups...
I think you cited a poll in FL to bolster the claim that Trump is doing "a lot better with Hispanics", but Cuban Americans are a LONG TIME GOP Constituency and their support is not indicative of doing " a lot better" with Hispanics in general. How do you think Marco Rubio got elected in the first place?
If Trump was "doing a lot better with Hispanics" he'd have a shot in New Mexico (he doesn't) and would not be trailing badly in AZ (he is). He'll likely do worse in Texas than he did in 2016, and he's not going to win NV or CO. What other Blue states with large Hispanic populations are left where he can flex his "Hispanic support" muscle?
Sometimes I think it's a sin
When I feel like I'm winnin' when I'm losin' again
- Gordon Lightfoot
"There are warning signs": Biden's support among Hispanic voters dips below Hillary Clinton's
Trump's doing better with this group than in 2016.
www.axios.com
By the numbers: Biden led Trump 56%-36% with Hispanics in a national Quinnipiac survey taken after both parties' August nominating conventions — a 20-point spread that's significantly narrower than the 38-point lead Clinton had in an average of pre-election polls in 2016.
- An Emerson College post-convention national survey put Trump’s Hispanic support at 37% — almost 10 points higher than the 28% exit polls show he captured in 2016.
- Biden was up 10 points over Trump among registered Hispanic voters in a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation August survey, significantly less than Clinton’s 27-point Hispanic win in Texas.
I can remember seeing Hillary signs. I've not seen a single Biden yard sign anywhere. Not one.
I see them by the dozens where I live...not one T.rump sign, though.
Just sayin'.
One thing is certain. There is absolutely no enthusiasm for Biden whatsoever. However, many also consider Trump to be the devil. Kind of reminds of 2012. Lots of hate for Obama from the right and moderates but absolutely no enthusiasm at all for Mittens.
Obama won self described "moderates" by like 15 points in 2012.
Throughout 2012 Obama had approval ratings of 45-50% with independents (independents and moderates aren't the same thing, moderates are more liberal).
Trump has been very steady at about 35-40% approval with independents. A very consistent 10 point gap between the two going into their reelection. And why Trump will most likely lose.
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They are literally every other yard around me.... at least. Even one of the kids in our neighborhood made a ton of Biden/ Harris handmade signs, and put them out in a bucket for people to pick up. Which a ton of people did
Tbf. I dont see many Trump signs either.
I have been shocked a few times by people who have "come out" for Trump who I'd assumed would not be fans. This will not be a landslide for Biden.
My prediction is that there will be electoral chaos stemming from issues counting mailed ballots.
Lawyers will argue, a judge will choose our POTUS in 2020.
Isn't telling how many kids dislike trump? Maybe the voting age should be only for below 12 yo.
You must live in a nice neighborhood.
I predict lots of dogs, cats, and dead people will be mailing in their vote for Biden.
Then we would have a Fox News Kids Edition so they could start their propaganda early.
Why do you say that? I thought the Senate Intel Report, which you seem to avoid discussing, said the Trump campaign was working with Russians and others to interfere in the election.
Thoughts on the Woodward tapes? I didn't see you in that thread either.
I bet a lot of Russians will be mailing in their vote for Trump
The reports also say that mail-in voting is secure and there is no real reason to believe that it is rife with fraud or issues.
Of course, trump supporters don't really care about the truth. They are happy to support voter suppression if it gets their dictator elected.
Don't see many signs in Zville and few in FL. Trump does dominate the boat flag crowd like 3 million to 0.
As people that look to Trump as a role model, we just follow his example of attacking people we don't agree with
. If you don't approve, then vote for someone classier.
As people that look to Trump as a role model, we just follow his example of attacking people we don't agree with
huh?
Biden wins easily. Trump lost the independents and moderates who were willing to give change a chance. They are willing to settle for the steaming pile of Democrats over the open sewer of Trump.
