Economic hellscape -- I wish everyone would read this

[crazed_hoosier2]

Yeah. I was hoping that some of the more moderate Indiana Republicans would oppose the bill they passed here - in favor of one that just established a time limit.

But I’m sure they feared a backlash from Republican primary voters who would go right after any R who voted against a wholesale ban on abortion. The exceptions they included don’t really count for much…and even those were controversial.

They just can’t help themselves. They’re like a mirror image of Dems in states like California and Oregon.

FWIW, I got an audience with my state rep at a Braun fundraiser recently. And I advised him just as I said here.

I got the obligatory politician’s courtesy response - which is basically a friendlier way to say “I know you paid bunch of money to be here. Thanks for that, but tough shit, pal.”

 

[snarlcakes]

As with coach cig I’m basically never wrong. I’m shocked by how much I’ve missed the boat on abortion. There are more abortion signs in yards in my community than anything else. More than letting us bet on sports!! In 2024 I didn’t think it would still be so pressing

lol....it's the first Presidential election since Roe was overturned. Of course it's going to be a major issue.

 

[mcmurtry66]

lol....it's the first Presidential election since Roe was overturned. Of course it's going to be a major issue.

It’s just a mental block I guess. It’s so Fing lazy. Go get on birth control. Make him put on a rubber. Make him pull out. Go get plan b for less than a dinner. Sooooo much shit has to happen to need an abortion save rape etc

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Yeah. I was hoping that some of the more moderate Indiana Republicans would oppose the bill they passed here - in favor of one that just established a time limit.

But I’m sure they feared a backlash from Republican primary voters who would go right after any R who voted against a wholesale ban on abortion. The exceptions they included don’t really count for much…and even those were controversial.

They just can’t help themselves. They’re like a mirror image of Dems in states like California and Oregon.

Yep, the moonbats and wingnuts really are the same, but they drive our politics. I used to hope jungle primaries would stop that but it appears not to work.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I should also say that I had an exchange with Todd Young a couple years ago in DC - when Biden was looking at jacking up the cap gains rate on people with income more than $1m.

To Young’s credit, not only did he listen intently to what I was saying, he actually had his policy director follow up with me by phone. The bill didn’t go anywhere. But I truly believe my suggestion would’ve at least been put out on the table had it moved forward. Young sits on the committee that writes tax code.

Basically I suggested that K-1 passthrough income that is retained rather than distributed should be exempted from the calculation of the income eligibility threshold for the higher rate.

That was encouraging. Sometimes they do listen.

 

[snarlcakes]

It’s just a mental block I guess. It’s so Fing lazy. Go get on birth control. Make him put on a rubber. Make him pull out. Go get plan b for less than a dinner. Sooooo much shit has to happen to need an abortion save rape etc

I'll make a bold prediction. Abortion will become illegal at some point this century. Population collapse is a real threat.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I'll make a bold prediction. Abortion will become illegal at some point this century. Population collapse is a real threat.

No idea but of course it’s huge to this batch of zero personal responsibility Dems. Too lazy to take precautions let’s be able to kill the baby. Commit a crime you should be bailed out it’s the cops fault anyway. They should be defunded. Not fair you’re rich give it to others

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I'll make a bold prediction. Abortion will become illegal at some point this century. Population collapse is a real threat.

Interesting.

I doubt it. But there is some logic to what you’re saying.

 

[hoot1]

Yep, the moonbats and wingnuts really are the same, but they drive our politics. I used to hope jungle primaries would stop that but it appears not to work.

In polite company there are two subjects to avoid. They are politics and religion.

In politics there are two subjects which politicians should avoid. They are economics and religion.

Unfortunately because government plays a roll in the economy (taxation and spending for example) the pols we elect play a role.

In economics the pols for decades have simplified the subject to supply side (demeaned by opponents as trickle down economics) and demand side (demeaned by opponents as Robin Hood economics).

The consequence of simplifying the politics of economics by going back and forth between supply side and demand side is a growing national debt. This deficit problem will eventually provide proof that neither the supply sider pols or the demand sider pols looked beyond the next election for what turned out to be far too long.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

In polite company there are two subjects to avoid. They are politics and religion.

In politics there are two subjects which politicians should avoid. They are economics and religion.

Unfortunately because government plays a roll in the economy (taxation and spending for example) the pols we elect play a role.

In economics the pols for decades have simplified the subject to supply side (demeaned by opponents as trickle down economics) and demand side (demeaned by opponents as Robin Hood economics).

The consequence of simplifying the politics of economics by going back and forth between supply side and demand side is a growing national debt. This deficit problem will eventually provide proof that neither the supply sider pols or the demand sider pols looked beyond the next election for what turned out to be far too long.

This is largely right, of course.

But here’s the thing: Keynes argued that infusions of demand, with deficit spending, should be a temporary measure to flatten out the effects of recessions. He coupled that with the argument that we should pull back the spending during expansionary periods and run surpluses that would be used to pay down debts incurred during recessions.

In other words, our policymakers are horrible Keynesians. They must’ve missed the whole “temporary” part in Keynes’ advice.

This was why Reagan quipped that there was nothing quite as permanent as a temporary government program.

 

[UncleMark]

And on yard signs, why does every Republican in Monroe County have a Dave Hall sign. He has the most, by a wide margin. He lives in Jackson County.

I've noticed the same. Hall has a great ground game it looks like. Most interesting to me is that only a very few also have a Trump sign. Obviously the Trump campaign doesn't see the need to do much in Indiana.

 

[UncleMark]

I’m shocked by how much I’ve missed the boat on abortion. There are more abortion signs in yards in my community than anything else. More than letting us bet on sports!! In 2024 I didn’t think it would still be so pressing

People in red states that passed restrictive abortion bills are pissed and taking matters into their hands. Now it's your turn.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

No idea but of course it’s huge to this batch of zero personal responsibility Dems. Too lazy to take precautions let’s be able to kill the baby. Commit a crime you should be bailed out it’s the cops fault anyway. They should be defunded. Not fair you’re rich give it to others

I really struggle to put myself in the shoes of a woman (much less a man) for whom abortion is their primary issue.

It would be like my chief issue being that Driving under the influence should be legalized.

It’s so avoidable, so easy to prevent with just a second of forethought.

 

[Lucy01]

People in red states that passed restrictive abortion bills are pissed and taking matters into their hands. Now it's your turn.

If they would practice more cornholing they wouldn’t need an abortion!

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I'll make a bold prediction. Abortion will become illegal at some point this century. Population collapse is a real threat.

Not that bold. I don't think it will take until the end of the century. A couple of decades.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Not that bold. I don't think it will take until the end of the century. A couple of decades.

Really?

There isn’t even any popular appetite in red states to fully outlaw abortion. I expect most of them to end up with 12-15 week windows. And I don’t expect much of any restrictions in blue states.

 

[UncleMark]

Not that bold. I don't think it will take until the end of the century. A couple of decades.

You day drinking?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Really?

There isn’t even any popular appetite in red states to fully outlaw abortion. I expect most of them to end up with 12-15 week windows. And I don’t expect much of any restrictions in blue states.

Roe was overturned by a smart, dedicated minority. The same smart, dedicated minority also backs fetal personhood.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Roe was overturned by a smart, dedicated minority. The same smart, dedicated minority also backs fetal personhood.

Nah. It’s in the political realm now. And they don’t have the numbers. Not even in Kansas and Kentucky.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Nah. It’s in the political realm now. And they don’t have the numbers. Not even in Kansas and Kentucky.

They didn't have the numbers before, and they haven't given up the legal strategy. This was always a war of two fronts. It's not over.

 

[snarlcakes]

Nah. It’s in the political realm now. And they don’t have the numbers. Not even in Kansas and Kentucky.

Abortion, besides being immoral, it’s also a terrible idea. Once the MSM and right people start demonize it, public perception will change. Governments are going to need to incentivize births, not allow people to abort babies.

Hypothetical, the year is 2050 and AI has consistently taken jobs. The population is starting to decline and birth rates have plummeted. Getting women out of the work force and having children would be a win-win.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

They didn't have the numbers before, and they haven't given up the legal strategy. This was always a war of two fronts. It's not over.

The legal strategy for what you’re saying would be a total long shot.

The legal strategy for undoing Roe, by comparison, wasn’t. It relied on such a tenuous foundation. Even RBG recognized as much (she thought it should be argued on EP grounds, which IMO wouldn’t have been much of an improvement).

So I think it’s very likely to stay in the political realm - where the anti-abortion folks just don’t have the numbers on their side.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Abortion, besides being immoral, it’s also a terrible idea. Once the MSM and right people start demonize it, public perception will change. Governments are going to need to incentivize births, not allow people to abort babies.

Hypothetical, the year is 2050 and AI has consistently taken jobs. The population is starting to decline and birth rates have plummeted. Getting women out of the work force and having children would be a win-win.

LOL. I agree with your conclusion, but your premises are ridiculous.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

The legal strategy for what you’re saying would be a total long shot.

The legal strategy for undoing Roe, by comparison, wasn’t. It relied on such a tenuous foundation. Even RBG recognized as much (she thought it should be argued on EP grounds, which IMO wouldn’t have been much of an improvement).

So I think it’s very likely to stay in the political realm - where the anti-abortion folks just don’t have the numbers on their side.

You are operating under the misconception that judges and legal scholars follow some sort of rigid logical process. They do not. Things change. All the best SCOTUS decisions in history were radical when they were written. Fetal personhood will be radical when it is written, too.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Abortion, besides being immoral, it’s also a terrible idea. Once the MSM and right people start demonize it, public perception will change. Governments are going to need to incentivize births, not allow people to abort babies.

Hypothetical, the year is 2050 and AI has consistently taken jobs. The population is starting to decline and birth rates have plummeted. Getting women out of the work force and having children would be a win-win.

Why does everyone assume AI is going to take everyone’s job? This has been said about every major technological revolution in history. Has never been so. Why is AI different?

AI will destroy jobs and create new ones. We probably don’t even know what a lot of them are yet.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Abortion, besides being immoral, it’s also a terrible idea. Once the MSM and right people start demonize it, public perception will change. Governments are going to need to incentivize births, not allow people to abort babies.

Hypothetical, the year is 2050 and AI has consistently taken jobs. The population is starting to decline and birth rates have plummeted. Getting women out of the work force and having children would be a win-win.

Won’t that mean we’ll need fewer people?

 

[snarlcakes]

LOL. I agree with your conclusion, but your premises are ridiculous.

Nonsense, which why public opinion will flip on it quickly. 85% of people are against abortion at some point. Getting people to go from an arbitrary ____ weeks to just rape/incest and danger of mother won’t be that difficult.

Shit, you could probably show some old lonely cat ladies on The View who had multiple abortions and an episode of Housewives Auburn showing an abortion and it would probably move the needle 10%.

 

[snarlcakes]

Won’t that mean we’ll need fewer people?

Not if we want to continue as a species.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Nonsense, which why public opinion will flip on it quickly. 85% of people are against abortion at some point. Getting people to go from an arbitrary ____ weeks to just rape/incest to danger of mother won’t be that difficult.

Shit, you could probably show some old lonely cat ladies on The View who had multiple abortions and an episode of Housewives Auburn showing an abortion and it would probably move the needle 10%.

That's not what I was referring to.

 

[snarlcakes]

Why does everyone assume AI is going to take everyone’s job? This has been said about every major technological revolution in history. Has never been so. Why is AI different?

AI will destroy jobs and create new ones. We probably don’t even know what a lot of them are yet.

You might be right.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Won’t that mean we’ll need fewer people?

You need to read Piers Anthony But What of Earth?

 

[mcmurtry66]

Nonsense, which why public opinion will flip on it quickly. 85% of people are against abortion at some point. Getting people to go from an arbitrary ____ weeks to just rape/incest to danger of mother won’t be that difficult.

Shit, you could probably show some old lonely cat ladies on The View who had multiple abortions and an episode of Housewives Auburn showing an abortion and it would probably move the needle 10%.

I see Andy cohen at sbx now and again. He went to the same school as my daughter. Next time I see him I’m pitching The Real Housewives of Auburn

 

[mcmurtry66]

You need to read Piers Anthony But What of Earth?

I need to read period. But okay

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Why does everyone assume AI is going to take everyone’s job? This has been said about every major technological revolution in history. Has never been so. Why is AI different?

AI will destroy jobs and create new ones. We probably don’t even know what a lot of them are yet.

Because AI doesn't just replace the grunts. It also replaces the people who organize the grunts, as well as the people who manage the organizers, and ultimately, the people who set policy for the managers. With truly competent AI, no jobs are necessary.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I need to read period. But okay

It's a fun little sci fi tale about what would happen if the population dropped dramatically.

 

[mcmurtry66]

It's a fun little sci fi tale about what would happen if the population dropped dramatically.

Noted 👍

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

That graph shows the crater beginning during Trump and Biden pulling us out of it.

No

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I see Andy cohen at sbx now and again. He went to the same school as my daughter. Next time I see him I’m pitching The Real Housewives of Auburn

He's probably just there to caffeinate a hangover.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

So economically we were much better off with COVID? That is exactly where that spike is. It looks like we are higher today than Trump pre-COVID.

That’s not really right. We are basically where we were pre-COVID. There has been no growth (367 vs 368 in Q1 2020).

Despite that, Obama never could generate much momentum because of his fiscal and business policies. There was solid, moderate growth from 2016-COVID.

And everyone knows I don’t like Trumps economic policies, which reduced potential growth and wage appreciation.

 

[mcmurtry66]

He's probably just there to caffeinate a hangover.

He pretends like he doesn’t see me. F him. I watch all his shows. I’m gonna talk to him