Could Ohio see a major political shift?

[Cthulhu85]

1) your claim was that white women account for 10% of abortions. Both sources show that it’s fully 1/3. Rate is immaterial to percent of total.
2) the only reason that a low number of white women having abortions would be relevant to your claim that you’re not likely to unknowingly being friends with a good mother who has had an abortion is if you only know white women. Otherwise, it’s a non-sequitor.
3) it’s awesome that you don’t care who does what, but the key part of this particular discussion is whether you know good moms who have had abortions at one time or another. Again, you claimed that a low incidence of white women having abortions somehow makes it so it’s not likely that you do know one/some. So you caring or not doesn’t matter.

Rate is not immaterial. Ignoring rate ignores the demographic disparity in the population. Of course the total percentage will be higher when looking at the raw number of abortions because there are more total white women.

 

[TMFT]

Rate is not immaterial. Ignoring rate ignores the demographic disparity in the population. Of course the total percentage will be higher when looking at the raw number of abortions because there are more total white women.

I’ll try one last time by summarizing.

Me: you probably know a good mom who has had an abortion.
You: white women only account for 10% of abortions
Me: it’s actually 1/3, but that doesn’t change the fact you probably know one even if you don’t have knowledge that they have.
You: But white women’s rate is lower.
Me: the rate is immaterial to the total number of women out there who have had abortions that you might know.
You: nuh-uh

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I’ll try one last time by summarizing.

Me: you probably know a good mom who has had an abortion.
You: white women only account for 10% of abortions
Me: it’s actually 1/3, but that doesn’t change the fact you probably know one even if you don’t have knowledge that they have.
You: But white women’s rate is lower.
Me: the rate is immaterial to the total number of women out there who have had abortions that you might know.
You: nuh-uh

Man your head must hurt.

 

[IUCrazy2]

I’ll try one last time by summarizing.

Me: you probably know a good mom who has had an abortion.
You: white women only account for 10% of abortions
Me: it’s actually 1/3, but that doesn’t change the fact you probably know one even if you don’t have knowledge that they have.
You: But white women’s rate is lower.
Me: the rate is immaterial to the total number of women out there who have had abortions that you might know.
You: nuh-uh

I don't get the point you are trying to make. The amount of people I know who have broken things like the speed limit is 100% of everyone who can drive. They mostly follow it closely in school zones. That isn't an argument to do away with speed limits.

Whether someone I know has had an abortion and gone on to be a fine mother (and there are people I interact with who fall into this category) really has no bearing on whether abortion is good, should be readily available, or was under the correct set of restrictions before Dobbs.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

I don't get the point you are trying to make. The amount of people I know who have broken things like the speed limit is 100% of everyone who can drive. They mostly follow it closely in school zones. That isn't an argument to do away with speed limits.

Whether someone I know has had an abortion and gone on to be a fine mother (and there are people I interact with who fall into this category) really has no bearing on whether abortion is good, should be readily available, or was under the correct set of restrictions before Dobbs.

It started with this

Anyone who voluntarily gets an abortion should be sterilized as part of the conditions of the procedure.

The was doubled down by this

Doubtful. Of the women that get abortions less than 10% of them are white women. Most women of all categories that get abortions are single.

I think he was pointing out that his numbers are way off and that he may know more then one female that he would consider a good mom that has had a abortion at one time in their life.

 

[TMFT]

I don't get the point you are trying to make. The amount of people I know who have broken things like the speed limit is 100% of everyone who can drive. They mostly follow it closely in school zones. That isn't an argument to do away with speed limits.

Whether someone I know has had an abortion and gone on to be a fine mother (and there are people I interact with who fall into this category) really has no bearing on whether abortion is good, should be readily available, or was under the correct set of restrictions before Dobbs.

The original premise I was responding to was that the trade off for having an abortion should be sterilization. I said that there was a difference between not wanting a kid ever and not wanting one right now. My point was that there are lots of good moms out there that have had abortions at one time or another.

 

[Noodle]

Answer to the OP: No.

Americans support abortion rights, but a big chunk of them don't really care that much about it. They care enough to defeat a ballot measure that's put right in front of them. They don't care nearly enough to read your math problem about why x=vote Democrat.

The irony of all of this is that about 15%* (or less) of adults in Ohio will decide whether to amend the state constitution to require a 60% yes vote to amend that same constitution later.

*15% is my wild-ass guess based on an optimistic 20-25% turnout of registered voters, coupled with the fact that about 67% of eligible people in Ohio are registered to vote.

 

[82hoosier]

If people here are going to talk about abortions for black women, white women and Hispanic women you probably should back up a little bit and look at the bigger picture.

Take a hard look at the cultural differences of the family structure. Look it income. Look at education. Look at access to healthcare. Look at access to organizations like planned Parenthood.

This is an extremely complicated issue and if it was it it would have been solved a long time ago. Anybody who thinks this is a black and white issue, no pun intended, doesn't really have a grasp about how deeply rooted and how complicated this whole issue is.

 

[TMFT]

If people here are going to talk about abortions for black women, white women and Hispanic women you probably should back up a little bit and look at the bigger picture.

Take a hard look at the cultural differences of the family structure. Look it income. Look at education. Look at access to healthcare. Look at access to organizations like planned Parenthood.

This is an extremely complicated issue and if it was it it would have been solved a long time ago. Anybody who thinks this is a black and white issue, no pun intended, doesn't really have a grasp about how deeply rooted and how complicated this whole issue is.

Say it one more time for the amen pew.

Great post

 

[Noodle]

The irony of all of this is that about 15%* (or less) of adults in Ohio will decide whether to amend the state constitution to require a 60% yes vote to amend that same constitution later.

*15% is my wild-ass guess based on an optimistic 20-25% turnout of registered voters, coupled with the fact that about 67% of eligible people in Ohio are registered to vote.

I will always admit when I am wrong. Apparently, my wild-ass guess of about 15% of adults in Ohio deciding whether to amend the state constitution to require a 60% yes vote to amend that same constitution later was overly optimistic. If Frank LaRose is right, the number will be around 5%. That's right, 5% of those eligible to vote in Ohio will decide whether to amend the state constitution in a rather significant manner. And, given that a simple majority is all that is currently needed, ~2.51% of eligible voters may decide the fate of a hugely significant change in the Ohio constitution. And anyone who says this is about more than just abortion is lying.

 

[Ohio Guy]

I will always admit when I am wrong. Apparently, my wild-ass guess of about 15% of adults in Ohio deciding whether to amend the state constitution to require a 60% yes vote to amend that same constitution later was overly optimistic. If Frank LaRose is right, the number will be around 5%. That's right, 5% of those eligible to vote in Ohio will decide whether to amend the state constitution in a rather significant manner. And, given that a simple majority is all that is currently needed, ~2.51% of eligible voters may decide the fate of a hugely significant change in the Ohio constitution. And anyone who says this is about more than just abortion is lying.

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If it is relatively low turn out, my guess is that it's made up of a lot of people getting out to vote no on issue 1. As far as I can tell, the 'vote no' crowd has done a pretty good job of getting the word out about that.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Didn't John Kasich get voted out of office for trying to be reasonable?

No. Did 8 years as Governor.

 

[Cthulhu85]

If people here are going to talk about abortions for black women, white women and Hispanic women you probably should back up a little bit and look at the bigger picture.

Take a hard look at the cultural differences of the family structure. Look it income. Look at education. Look at access to healthcare. Look at access to organizations like planned Parenthood.

This is an extremely complicated issue and if it was it it would have been solved a long time ago. Anybody who thinks this is a black and white issue, no pun intended, doesn't really have a grasp about how deeply rooted and how complicated this whole issue is.

Perfectly sums up the point I was trying to make.

 

[TMFT]

Perfectly sums up the point I was trying to make.

This might be curiosity killing the cat, but which post in this thread do you think was you trying to make a similar point as him?