Coronavirus
- Thread starter Cream&Crimson
- Start date
So it was the case of setting up a task force but poorly executed.
We had followed the pandemic paybook here. Its even published on-line if you are interested so for the curious, you know what the steps will be.
Like the military DefCon, there is something similar here for epidemics. The communication and physical measures escalated accordingly. Green to Orange -- we arent in Red yet.
So finally Nursing Homes and other elderly institutions are going to screen workers and reduce/eliminate visitors. Logic prevails in one case at least.
Hope this virus situation gets resolved before tick season starts or we’ll be dealing
with Corona with Lyme
with Corona with Lyme
It would be helpful to have the same statistics, complete with dramatic music and graphics for influenza during the same time frame. Also I'd be interested to the mortality rate among seniors for the regular flu. I would think the elderly with UC's are hardest hit by any virus. Even the common cold?
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Not many facts in that story. And still no comparisons to the numbers of Americans who could be exposed to the flu in the same time frame. That comparison would be helpful to assuage fears, or to ramp up the panic like you guys want.
South Korea has a long history of intelligence and rationality. That provides an opportunity for such a cultural solution.Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy
- South Korea had 7,513 Covid-19 cases as of Monday, with daily infections falling for a fourth consecutive day
- Officials attribute the decrease to mass testing, improved public communication and the use of advanced technology
South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.
As of end-Monday, it had 7,513 cases and 54 deaths. The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there was an increase of 131 cases from Sunday to Monday.
The country averaged more than 500 new infections a day for the past two weeks, but last Friday, this number dipped to 438, then 367 on Saturday and 248 on Sunday. The daily number of confirmed cases is reported the following day.
The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed.
South Korean officials have shared their experiences in containing the outbreak, saying that citywide lockdowns, as imposed by China in Wuhan, where the outbreak originated, are difficult to enforce in an open society.
China also introduced strict social distancing and extensive monitoring of citizens and ensured their adherence to preventive measures with punishment and rewards, resulting in a significant drop in the number of new cases.
“Without harming the principle of a transparent and open society, we recommend a response system that blends voluntary public participation with creative applications of advanced technology,” South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told journalists.
Conventional and coercive measures such as lockdowns of affected areas have drawbacks, he said, undermining the spirit of democracy and alienating the public who should participate actively in preventive efforts.
“Public participation must be secured through openness and transparency,” he said.
South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with the information needed to stay safe, including twice-daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.
The importance of maintaining good hygiene has also been stressed. South Koreans seldom leave their homes without wearing a face mask, with many buildings putting up signs reading “No Masks, No Entry”. Restaurant workers and retail staff wear masks while serving customers.
“I don’t like to wear a mask as I have to smell my own breath. I didn’t bother to wear as usual when I sneezed couple of times in the metro. Then other commuters frowned on me and stepped away from me. At that time, I decided to follow the trend and wear a mask,” said Min Gyeong-wook, a 35-year-old company employee.
South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours.
Covid-19 tests are prohibitively expensive in many countries but in South Korea, all tests are free. The country is also capable of processing up to 15,000 diagnostic tests a day, and the aggregate number of tests has reached almost 200,000.
This testing capability has enabled the country to identify patients early and minimise the harmful effects, health experts say. But this also led to South Korea having the second largest number of confirmed infections in the world after China, although this was superseded by Italy this week.
South Korea has established “special immigration procedures” to monitor arrivals for two weeks without having to ban inbound travellers from entering the country.
I still hear people minimizing COVID-19 and arguing that the flu is a lot worse.
When a disease is rapidly spreading and has a significant incubation time, just dividing total deaths by total cases gives the false impression that there is a very low death rate.
Here's an example, and let’s make the math simple-- let’s say that you have a disease with a 100% per day growth rate, a 10% fatality rate, and if you die, you die after 3 days. This does not reflect COVID-19, but, again, it will illustrate the idea.
Start with 100 infections identified on day 1.
Day 1: 100 cases, 0 deaths, 100 total cases, 0 total deaths… wow, seems like a 0% death rate!
Day 2: 200 new cases, 0 deaths, 300 total cases, 0 total deaths… wow, seems like a 0% death rate!
Day 3: 400 new cases, 0 deaths, 700 total cases, 0 total deaths… wow, seems like a 0% death rate!
Day 4: 800 new cases, 10 deaths (these are the 10% of those that were infected on day 1), 1500 total cases, 10 total deaths… uh-oh, seems like a 0.67% death rate!
Day 5: 1600 new cases, 20 more deaths (10% of those infected on day 2), 3100 total cases, 30 total deaths… uh-oh, seems like a 0.97% death rate!
Day 6: 3200 new cases, 40 more deaths, (10% of those infected on day 3), 6300 total cases, 70 total deaths… uh-oh, seems like a 1.1% death rate!
And so on.
Eventually the number creeps up toward 10%, because the death rate (in this HYPOTHETICAL example) is in fact 10%.
When a disease is rapidly spreading and has a significant incubation time, just dividing total deaths by total cases gives the false impression that there is a very low death rate.
Here's an example, and let’s make the math simple-- let’s say that you have a disease with a 100% per day growth rate, a 10% fatality rate, and if you die, you die after 3 days. This does not reflect COVID-19, but, again, it will illustrate the idea.
Start with 100 infections identified on day 1.
Day 1: 100 cases, 0 deaths, 100 total cases, 0 total deaths… wow, seems like a 0% death rate!
Day 2: 200 new cases, 0 deaths, 300 total cases, 0 total deaths… wow, seems like a 0% death rate!
Day 3: 400 new cases, 0 deaths, 700 total cases, 0 total deaths… wow, seems like a 0% death rate!
Day 4: 800 new cases, 10 deaths (these are the 10% of those that were infected on day 1), 1500 total cases, 10 total deaths… uh-oh, seems like a 0.67% death rate!
Day 5: 1600 new cases, 20 more deaths (10% of those infected on day 2), 3100 total cases, 30 total deaths… uh-oh, seems like a 0.97% death rate!
Day 6: 3200 new cases, 40 more deaths, (10% of those infected on day 3), 6300 total cases, 70 total deaths… uh-oh, seems like a 1.1% death rate!
And so on.
Eventually the number creeps up toward 10%, because the death rate (in this HYPOTHETICAL example) is in fact 10%.
Right, people point to the relatively low death rate to minimize the threat of the virus not realizing there are a lot of people still in critical condition receiving treatment who could die. And if the virus spreads too much hospitals will become overwhelmed and people with other serious health issues will not be able to receive proper care leading to even more deaths. Circumstances could and likely will deteriorate fast in this country. Indiana already has 11 cases, 7 in the Indy metro area and the Big Ten Tournament is still being held with fans! Insane!
You mean our president and his propaganda outlet Fox
I received an email from Southwest on March 9th around 5am MT that basically said they're upping their cleaning procedures.
We want you to feel confident when traveling with Southwest Airlines. As a result, we have enhanced some of our cleaning procedures in the interest of our Customers' and Employees' health and safety....
I am 99% sure I read that the specific Washington State nursing home where the first coronavirus cases in the US originated was unfortunately understaffed when the patient died. I'll post a link to support this when I find one, but I'm not making this up.
The cult of self imposed willing stupidity...
A
anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
But Ladoga says this is all fake news. How can there be patients in the US? Oh I know, because there are no goddamned tests.Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy
- South Korea had 7,513 Covid-19 cases as of Monday, with daily infections falling for a fourth consecutive day
- Officials attribute the decrease to mass testing, improved public communication and the use of advanced technology
South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.
As of end-Monday, it had 7,513 cases and 54 deaths. The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there was an increase of 131 cases from Sunday to Monday.
The country averaged more than 500 new infections a day for the past two weeks, but last Friday, this number dipped to 438, then 367 on Saturday and 248 on Sunday. The daily number of confirmed cases is reported the following day.
The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed.
South Korean officials have shared their experiences in containing the outbreak, saying that citywide lockdowns, as imposed by China in Wuhan, where the outbreak originated, are difficult to enforce in an open society.
China also introduced strict social distancing and extensive monitoring of citizens and ensured their adherence to preventive measures with punishment and rewards, resulting in a significant drop in the number of new cases.
“Without harming the principle of a transparent and open society, we recommend a response system that blends voluntary public participation with creative applications of advanced technology,” South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip told journalists.
Conventional and coercive measures such as lockdowns of affected areas have drawbacks, he said, undermining the spirit of democracy and alienating the public who should participate actively in preventive efforts.
“Public participation must be secured through openness and transparency,” he said.
South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with the information needed to stay safe, including twice-daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.
The importance of maintaining good hygiene has also been stressed. South Koreans seldom leave their homes without wearing a face mask, with many buildings putting up signs reading “No Masks, No Entry”. Restaurant workers and retail staff wear masks while serving customers.
“I don’t like to wear a mask as I have to smell my own breath. I didn’t bother to wear as usual when I sneezed couple of times in the metro. Then other commuters frowned on me and stepped away from me. At that time, I decided to follow the trend and wear a mask,” said Min Gyeong-wook, a 35-year-old company employee.
South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours.
Covid-19 tests are prohibitively expensive in many countries but in South Korea, all tests are free. The country is also capable of processing up to 15,000 diagnostic tests a day, and the aggregate number of tests has reached almost 200,000.
This testing capability has enabled the country to identify patients early and minimise the harmful effects, health experts say. But this also led to South Korea having the second largest number of confirmed infections in the world after China, although this was superseded by Italy this week.
South Korea has established “special immigration procedures” to monitor arrivals for two weeks without having to ban inbound travellers from entering the country.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Interesting that the institutions made up of the least vulnerable people are taking the most drastic measures.
Just trying to weed out the truth from among the bullshit flowing from the press, politicians and pussies.
A
anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
Didn't say those words. If you can't carry a discussion without misrepresenting what the other side said, shut it down and take it away from here. You're a wrong guy to do that. But then, when you're on a really bad side - as you are - you have to misrepresent or flee.
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anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
A
anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa
Guest
You said it was fake. You said it wasn’t growing out of control. Own it. Or piss off. Or both.
My division at work is responsible for Asia and we live this every day. It’s a big freaking deal, no matter what your new Jesus or your terrible American media personalities say.
Because of guys like you, it’ll be much harder to contain.
Yeah I hear you. But I think it makes sense for universities to do this. Way too many people sitting together in class who can then become carriers and pass it along to older folks like me.
My employer, a large silicon valley tech company, issued a policy today that anyone not comfortable with going into the office can work from home for the next two weeks. I'm sure that period will get extended. I took them up on it - working at home now.
I'm of two minds on this whole deal. On the one hand, yes, it's real and concerning and needs to be dealt with seriously. On the other hand, shutting down entire institutions and closing events like the NCAA tournament to spectators and hunkering down in our homes, limiting our contact with people in general... it just all seems so overwrought.
Hope this virus situation gets resolved before tick season starts or we’ll be dealing
with Corona with Lyme
Damn. I actually laughed at this one.
I'm going to steal this one.
There are several routes a country can go:
1) Hong Kong, Singapore: Spend massive proactive efforts on containment (track, map and isolate plus manage the secondary contacts). Also, ensure easy/cheap or free assess to testing, screening and self-responsibility. Keep it small so it's manageable. I can see every cluster, and how they link together of every case here in Singapore online.
In parallel, the gov't did a comms/education campaign at the onset to develop personal responsibility, and save gov't resources in the medium term.
2) South Korea: Delayed tracking measures but eventually they did and then did it on a massive scale -- over 200k people tested, and many hundreds more isolated and like the above, provide the food logistics so people can self-quarantine, have case managers etc. Comms/education campaign was also initiated.
3) China/Italy: Ignored or delayed initiation of measures (for whatever reasons) then you go full lockdown mode. It seems to be working in China but only after half the country has been.
The danger that we have is that every one after being our 3rd month has got complacent. The bigger crowds are coming out, fewer people wearing masks. As a result, there was the largest cluster so far developed last week. Some (non-vulnerable category) guy went to a social function (drinks/singing involved) despite having some mild symptoms infected everyone in his table of 10. Then one of the women then, super sociable, spread it to quite a few others.
We went basically from holding steady at 90+ cases for a month -- to suddenly 150+ (and now still raising 178 as of yesterday) within a week. Ok, these are relatively small growths but when your primary objective is containment, its seen as a massive red flashing light.
We are an ageing society here so it can be quite dangerous. Chronics is relatively low compared to the US though.
This epidemic (non-ebola) management is really a business/strategic management initiative until a vaccine is found. The initiations, efforts, measures etc are quite logical. Issue of execution. Having the epidemic playbook published online I can see ahead of time what they are going to do.
People don't understand that all that is money well spent. The robustness/good execution, only breeds confidence and less panic/fear (from being better informed) which is good for the economy in the medium term.
That's why it's so laughable when I read of those who are still stuck on denials and ignorance of what the virus does. Or even those who tag 'china' virus on to this. It's consistent with world view or prejudices, never mind this particular situation. (Many Asians have been attacked despite not being even Chinese.) It has become an excuse for racist attacks for some.
I am far from an alarmist on this, but I do not get the "this is no big deal" argument. No one here has ever claimed to be trained in epidemiology. Given that,it seemslistening to the Surgeon General and the CDC makes sense. Do people think they are lying?
The exponential curve of infections in the US is so far almost exactly tracking Italy's curve as it tracked up. We're just about 10 days behind them. Expect things to be dramatically, exponentially different and more dire in the US by weekend after next. If you haven't stocked up on foodstuffs, you probably should do that now.
I know. It's unlike anything we've ever experienced. But all the evidence seems to point to absolute chaos here in the States within less than two weeks. And the only way now to smooth that bell curve out is to take drastic measures. It's the only way. Italy is doing the right thing. Within two weeks, we may be faced with a similar situation.
Flu statistics are well known, have been for decades and have been offered in every corner of the media on a constant basis for the last 2 months. What, exactly, are you missing about flu statistics?
And, this isn’t the flu so what the flu does is irrelevant.
