Anyone doing anything different in investments?

[zeke4ahs]

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/50026...otes-magical-thinking-and-conspiracy-theories My financial advisor warned me months ago that a Trump Presidency would be very bad for investments and the stock market.


And this.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...winning-us-election-2016-latest-a7392711.html
I talked to him a few weeks ago and we were feeling pretty good about things, but not so sure now. As anyone moving any money? It's predicted to be very volatile if there happens to be a Trump presidency.

 

[mjvcaj]

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/50026...otes-magical-thinking-and-conspiracy-theories My financial advisor warned me months ago that a Trump Presidency would be very bad for investments and the stock market.


And this.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...winning-us-election-2016-latest-a7392711.html
I talked to him a few weeks ago and we were feeling pretty good about things, but not so sure now. As anyone moving any money? It's predicted to be very volatile if there happens to be a Trump presidency.

Your useless FA also told you that Brexit was going to be an apocalyptic type move. And here were are, not far from record highs.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Your useless FA also told you that Brexit was going to be an apocalyptic type move. And here were are, not far from record highs.

Unless you bought the Pound.

 

[zeke4ahs]

Your useless FA also told you that Brexit was going to be an apocalyptic type move. And here were are, not far from record highs.

Um no. NO he didn't. We didn't discuss Brexit at all.

 

[twenty02]

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/50026...otes-magical-thinking-and-conspiracy-theories My financial advisor warned me months ago that a Trump Presidency would be very bad for investments and the stock market.


And this.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...winning-us-election-2016-latest-a7392711.html
I talked to him a few weeks ago and we were feeling pretty good about things, but not so sure now. As anyone moving any money? It's predicted to be very volatile if there happens to be a Trump presidency.

No. Timing market moves is a suckers game.

 

[mjvcaj]

Unless you bought the Pound.

LOL @ the idea of Zeke dabbling in Forex

 

[mjvcaj]

Um no. NO he didn't. We didn't discuss Brexit at all.

He probably doesn't even know what Brexit is.

 

[zeke4ahs]

He probably doesn't even know what Brexit is.

Not sure exactly why you're acting like you know anything about him. He's extremely successful and well thought of in his business. Of course he knows what Brexit is. He travels extinsively. So I assume by all your snark, that you have no fear, economically, of a Trump Presidency?

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Your useless FA also told you that Brexit was going to be an apocalyptic type move. And here were are, not far from record highs.

No kidding.

Zeke, you need a new FA.

Remember your Ben Graham: in the short term, markets are like a voting machine....in the long term, they're like a weighing machine.

If somebody is encouraging you to move money around because of short-term events which have no bearing on what things actually weigh (relative to their spot price) then they are almost certainly giving you bad advice.

If Trump wins and stocks dive as a result (which may well be the case), that should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

[zeke4ahs]

No kidding.

Zeke, you need a new FA.

Remember your Ben Graham: in the short term, markets are like a voting machine....in the long term, they're like a weighing machine.

If somebody is encouraging you to move money around because of short-term events which have no bearing on what things actually weigh (relative to their spot price) then they are almost certainly giving you bad advice.

If Trump wins and stocks dive as a result (which may well be the case), that should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

I don't consider 4 years short term. As I said, this guy has a really strong track record and handles accounts for people that do quite, quite well. I'm lucky he took me on.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I don't consider 4 years short term. As I said, this guy has a really strong track record and handles accounts for people that do quite, quite well. I'm lucky he took me on.

4 years isn't short-term. Any market volatility resulting from a political outcome different than what investors were expecting would be.

Thus the Brexit comparison. Markets went crazy for a short period and quickly reverted to more realistic valuations.

I mean, the pound sterling dove by 10% immediately following the result. Anybody who dumped out of it because of that pulled back a bloody stump.

One more investing cliche: fear, greed, and other emotions are your competition.

 

[zeke4ahs]

4 years isn't short-term. Any market volatility resulting from a political outcome different than what investors were expecting would be.

Thus the Brexit comparison. Markets went crazy for a short period and quickly reverted to more realistic valuations.

I mean, the pound sterling dove by 10% immediately following the result. Anybody who dumped out of it because of that pulled back a bloody stump.

One more investing cliche: fear, greed, and other emotions are your competition.

I have good friends in Great Britain. I was there when Brexit passed, so I'm pretty familiar with it. That's short term. As I said, and as those articles I copied mentioned , people are concerned LONG term with a Trump presidency.
And Brexit still has a long way to go, by the way. Verdict is definitely still out on the long term effects.

 

[twenty02]

4 years isn't short-term. Any market volatility resulting from a political outcome different than what investors were expecting would be.

Thus the Brexit comparison. Markets went crazy for a short period and quickly reverted to more realistic valuations.

I mean, the pound sterling dove by 10% immediately following the result. Anybody who dumped out of it because of that pulled back a bloody stump.

One more investing cliche: fear, greed, and other emotions are your competition.

We have no idea what the long term economic impact will be upon Britain and Europe from Brexit, at this point.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I have good friends in Great Britain. I was there when Brexit passed, so I'm pretty familiar with it. That's short term.

If the verdict is still out, then....well, I'm confused as to what you're saying.

The point is: the fears resulted in a quick drop. The realities simply didn't justify it. I agree that the lasting effects are largely unknown. But the overblown fears which caused the swift and sharp drop were the result of emotion, not facts.

As I said, and as those articles I copied mentioned , people are concerned LONG term with a Trump presidency.

Yeah, but a lot of similar things were written about Brexit leading up to the vote. Thus the comparison.

It doesn't make any sense to make major investment decisions based on the "concern" you're talking about. That's just another word for fear -- and such fears are usually irrational.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

We have no idea what the long term economic impact will be upon Britain and Europe from Brexit, at this point.

I agree. My point is that the market volatility that followed had no basis in fact. It was all based on overblown fears.

Maybe Brexit will have a deleterious effect on Britain and the EU. Maybe it won't. Making a rash move based on fears, though, rarely serves anybody well.

 

[mjvcaj]

Not sure exactly why you're acting like you know anything about him. He's extremely successful and well thought of in his business. Of course he knows what Brexit is. He travels extinsively. So I assume by all your snark, that you have no fear, economically, of a Trump Presidency?

Think about it Zeke, it would take years for Donald to push through protectionist policies in a meaningful way, if he is even able to do so. I'd be far more concerned about the Fed rate hikes than Donald as President.

While some consider him an idiot, he clearly isn't stupid enough to sacrifice his fortune in favor of crippling the economy. If real estate prices plunge, he's literally SOL.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Think about it Zeke, it would take years for Donald to push through protectionist policies in a meaningful way, if he is even able to do so. I'd be far more concerned about the Fed rate hikes than Donald as President.

While some consider him an idiot, he clearly isn't stupid enough to sacrifice his fortune in favor of crippling the economy. If real estate prices plunge, he's literally SOL.

I think the likelihood of him getting any protectionist policies in place is pretty remote, anyway. And, so far as the long-term health of the economy goes, that's the biggest threat he poses (based on his stated policy views, anyway).

The president does enjoy some independent latitude on trade policy -- but only because Congress has given it to him. Ultimately, they're still holding the bigger stick.

 

[Sope Creek]

Think about it Zeke, it would take years for Donald to push through protectionist policies in a meaningful way, if he is even able to do so. I'd be far more concerned about the Fed rate hikes than Donald as President.

While some consider him an idiot, he clearly isn't stupid enough to sacrifice his fortune in favor of crippling the economy. If real estate prices plunge, he's literally SOL.

Before anybody starts to counsel zeke regarding investments, y'all ought to make sure that you ask her what her investment horizons are. If she's looking at accessing those funds in significant amounts any time in the next 5 years for, say, retirement, then the advice she's received may be exactly what she should do.

 

[IUJIM]

Before anybody starts to counsel zeke regarding investments, y'all ought to make sure that you ask her what her investment horizons are. If she's looking at accessing those funds in significant amounts any time in the next 5 years for, say, retirement, then the advice she's received may be exactly what she should do.

Sure, based on her time horizons, not because Trump is going to crash the market.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Your useless FA also told you that Brexit was going to be an apocalyptic type move. And here were are, not far from record highs.

Hi. I'm William Devane.

 

[mjvcaj]

Sure, based on her time horizons, not because Trump is going to crash the market.

Right. Even if Hillary wins, I'd assume she'd require the same accessibility and liquidity from her investments, right @Sope Creek ? In other words, getting out of the market is a valid decision right now for many reasons. I'm not sure Trump is even close to the top of that list if you ask most investment managers, objectively.

 

[twenty02]

I hope there is a temp crash so I can buy more.

 

[twenty02]

I'll add....I think we're already in a correction. Election nothing really to do with it. Earnings misses and a pending rate hike.

 

[Lucy01]

I'll add....I think we're already in a correction. Election nothing really to do with it. Earnings misses and a pending rate hike.

What doing on here? You told me you would be watching the WS

 

[twenty02]

What doing on here? You told me you would be watching the WS

Multitasking....a lot of downtime in baseball, and I can only make so many beer trips to fridge.

 

[Sope Creek]

Right. Even if Hillary wins, I'd assume she'd require the same accessibility and liquidity from her investments, right @Sope Creek ? In other words, getting out of the market is a valid decision right now for many reasons. I'm not sure Trump is even close to the top of that list if you ask most investment managers, objectively.

Maybe, maybe not. We don't know anything about her circumstances, her investment goals or investment timelines. We don't know her current mix of investments . . . and we have only a general notion about her perception of risk from a Trump election. I could see someone electing to sit out the uncertainty associated with that, in part or otherwise.

BTW, did you stay 100% invested in equities during 2007-8 (assuming you had sufficient assets to manage at that time . . . I know you're pretty young at that time . . . .)

 

[IUJIM]

Maybe, maybe not. We don't know anything about her circumstances, her investment goals or investment timelines. We don't know her current mix of investments . . . and we have only a general notion about her perception of risk from a Trump election. I could see someone electing to sit out the uncertainty associated with that, in part or otherwise.

BTW, did you stay 100% invested in equities during 2007-8 (assuming you had sufficient assets to manage at that time . . . I know you're pretty young at that time . . . .)

I did, and by 2010-11, had made up what I lost, and today, have more than I ever have had. I do have, however, a couple of clients that went to cash at about Dow 8000. They are still in cash....

 

[mjvcaj]

Maybe, maybe not. We don't know anything about her circumstances, her investment goals or investment timelines. We don't know her current mix of investments . . . and we have only a general notion about her perception of risk from a Trump election. I could see someone electing to sit out the uncertainty associated with that, in part or otherwise.

BTW, did you stay 100% invested in equities during 2007-8 (assuming you had sufficient assets to manage at that time . . . I know you're pretty young at that time . . . .)

Yep. Rarely try to time the markets with my retirement accounts, which represents the bulk of my security investments. I may tilt towards risk on or risk-off equity trades, such as changing the portfolio makeup from large cap to small cap or increasing exposure to a certain sector, but I'm not going in and out of the market.

 

[td75]

Dump your advisor and handle your portfolio yourself. You'll save a fortune just in fees, especially if you have a large portfolio.

DO NOT do anything with your money based on who is elected, that is STUPID. Like I said, get away from financial advisors and their sapping fees. Look into investing in Vanguard index funds, park it for your appropriate time line and watch it grow without the advisor's hand in the cookie jar.

 

[iuwclurker1]

He probably doesn't even know what Brexit is.

What's your fvking problem, you NC troll. Zeke asked a question.

 

[Chester Fried]

I don't consider 4 years short term. As I said, this guy has a really strong track record and handles accounts for people that do quite, quite well. I'm lucky he took me on.

You should consider 4 years short term when measuring the market. Maybe your FA has a strong track record, but what is his return, after subtracting fees, compared to a benchmark like the S&P 500? Let's assume he has in fact out-performed the market consistently, that is almost certainly a result of luck (i.e., if a million people all flip coins, someone is going to flip a high number of heads or tails in a row). There are numerous studies out there supporting this proposition and related arguments.

In another famous and recent example, Warren Buffett bet a hedge fund manager that the S&P 500 would beat the hedge fund manager's choice of hedge funds, which are staffed by some of the smartest people in our country. The S&P 500 has out-performed the hedge funds.

Your FA has no idea what the next 4 years will have in store for the Stock Market. As others have said in this thread, predicting such things in such a short time frame is a fools errand. Given the run-up we've had since 2007/2008, we are likely due for a correction of some sort within the next presidential term. But who knows?

That being said, I did pull out about 20% of my money out of the market two weeks ago because of some potential spending needs in the next 6 months and I am happy with the gains of the past 5 years. However, I'd love nothing more for the market to go down by 20% the day after the election because I would plow that money back and any other money I could obtain into the market to take advantage of such irrationality.

 

[Mas-sa-suta]

LOL @ the idea of Zeke dabbling in Forex

I'd pay to watch that!

 

[mjvcaj]

Dump your advisor and handle your portfolio yourself. You'll save a fortune just in fees, especially if you have a large portfolio.

DO NOT do anything with your money based on who is elected, that is STUPID. Like I said, get away from financial advisors and their sapping fees. Look into investing in Vanguard index funds, park it for your appropriate time line and watch it grow without the advisor's hand in the cookie jar.

Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity are all fighting to be the lowest cost funds and now have a large basket of options and indexes to track. All have solid customer service too and can provide advice, should @zeke4ahs require it.

 

[zeke4ahs]

You should consider 4 years short term when measuring the market. Maybe your FA has a strong track record, but what is his return, after subtracting fees, compared to a benchmark like the S&P 500? Let's assume he has in fact out-performed the market consistently, that is almost certainly a result of luck (i.e., if a million people all flip coins, someone is going to flip a high number of heads or tails in a row). There are numerous studies out there supporting this proposition and related arguments.

In another famous and recent example, Warren Buffett bet a hedge fund manager that the S&P 500 would beat the hedge fund manager's choice of hedge funds, which are staffed by some of the smartest people in our country. The S&P 500 has out-performed the hedge funds.

Your FA has no idea what the next 4 years will have in store for the Stock Market. As others have said in this thread, predicting such things in such a short time frame is a fools errand. Given the run-up we've had since 2007/2008, we are likely due for a correction of some sort within the next presidential term. But who knows?

That being said, I did pull out about 20% of my money out of the market two weeks ago because of some potential spending needs in the next 6 months and I am happy with the gains of the past 5 years. However, I'd love nothing more for the market to go down by 20% the day after the election because I would plow that money back and any other money I could obtain into the market to take advantage of such irrationality.

My FA very consistently well out performs the market. I had some money elsewhere and switched most of it to him by comparing market performance.

 

[iuwclurker1]

My FA very consistently well out performs the market. I had some money elsewhere and switched most of it to him by comparing market performance.

1. Trump's not going to win.
2. Even if he does, you just ride it out.

 

[iuwclurker1]

It might be useful to note that Trump never has been beholden to Wall Street per se. He's in real estate. He hasn't made that a selling point, but he surely could have.

 

[Chester Fried]

My FA very consistently well out performs the market. I had some money elsewhere and switched most of it to him by comparing market performance.

The most recent episode of the Money Guy Podcast discussed many of the topics in this thread. I really enjoy this podcast and recommend it often to friends and family. It's worth a listen.