Across the pond

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Could be fascinating election results in the UK today. Labour will definitely win in a landslide, but it's a question of how big of one, and also just how far the conservatives drop. There is a realistic scenario in which the Tories end up in fourth, behind the Lib Dems and Reform both (Reform is the hard right anti-immigration party that used to be the Brexit party).

Results start coming in around 6pm Eastern time.

 

[Noodle]

No way the Tories were at risk of finishing fourth but they got spanked big time. Reform party also did not do very well. It’s also crazy that Sunak has to move out of 10 Downing Street tomorrow. They don’t waste any time.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

No way the Tories were at risk of finishing fourth but they got spanked big time. Reform party also did not do very well. It’s also crazy that Sunak has to move out of 10 Downing Street tomorrow. They don’t waste any time.

Wow. The exit poll is astonishing. It suggests Reform and the Lib Dems really fell short, although almost certainly for very different reasons.

EDIT: I misread the poll. Lib Dems are doing just fine.

Considering how poorly the country things of them right now, 130+ seats for the Tories is a solid showing.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Bonus: Scottish independence is dead as a doornail for now. SNP getting completely wiped out.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Reform is doing really well in Labour seats, easily displacing the conservatives for second.

 

[Spartans9312]

Wow. The exit poll is astonishing. It suggests Reform and the Lib Dems really fell short, although almost certainly for very different reasons.

EDIT: I misread the poll. Lib Dems are doing just fine.

Considering how poorly the country things of them right now, 130+ seats for the Tories is a solid showing.

Close to 150 seats and no Reform breakthrough is the best outcome the Tories could have asked for

 

[Noodle]

Reform is doing really well in Labour seats, easily displaying the conservatives for second.

How do you figure? Reform is only projected to have 13 seats. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

How do you figure? Reform is only projected to have 13 seats. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt

Protest voting. Conservatives in seats they don't think they can win are switching heavily to Reform.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

There’s an irony in Britain voting to destroy their country on the 4th of July.

 

[Noodle]

How do you figure? Reform is only projected to have 13 seats. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt

OK I get what you were saying. But Reform still will have a minuscule number of actual seats.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

OK I get what you were saying. But Reform still will have a minuscule number of actual seats.

Yes, their breakthrough is illusory.

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

Long live the king!!

 

[Spartans9312]

No way the Tories were at risk of finishing fourth but they got spanked big time. Reform party also did not do very well. It’s also crazy that Sunak has to move out of 10 Downing Street tomorrow. They don’t waste any time.

Wonder if Sunak follows Nick Clegg to a high ranking gig in Silicon Valley

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Could be fascinating election results in the UK today. Labour will definitely win in a landslide, but it's a question of how big of one, and also just how far the conservatives drop. There is a realistic scenario in which the Tories end up in fourth, behind the Lib Dems and Reform both (Reform is the hard right anti-immigration party that used to be the Brexit party).

Results start coming in around 6pm Eastern time.

I’m eager to revisit this thread in a few years

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

I found this interesting for those who like to bemoan the EC and Senate as being “undemocratic”.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I found this interesting for those who like to bemoan the EC and Senate as being “undemocratic”.

View embedded media

As mentioned above, protest votes. Lots of people on the right in districts Labour was going to win anyway voted for Reform as a protest against the Tories. Reform came in second place in a lot of races, and racked up lots of votes that didn't bring any seats.

Conversely, the Lib Dems got their biggest share of seats ever, despite getting far fewer votes than Reform, because people strategically voted for them over Labour in districts where Labour had no chance, but the Tories were vulnerable.

On a different note, I think Americans can take some lessons from these results. Specifically, the Dems should note what happened to Labour for basically telling the far left to sod off in regards to Gaza: effectively nothing. They lost a small handful of seats because of it, but it never threatened their overall victory. The anti-Israel contingent on the left is a lot louder than it is powerful.

 

[Spartans9312]

The Tories lost The Cities of London and Westminster seat

 

[Noodle]

Shock results in France today as well. Far right big losers. Fools thought they were going to take Prime Minister.

 

[Spartans9312]

As mentioned above, protest votes. Lots of people on the right in districts Labour was going to win anyway voted for Reform as a protest against the Tories. Reform came in second place in a lot of races, and racked up lots of votes that didn't bring any seats.

Conversely, the Lib Dems got their biggest share of seats ever, despite getting far fewer votes than Reform, because people strategically voted for them over Labour in districts where Labour had no chance, but the Tories were vulnerable.

On a different note, I think Americans can take some lessons from these results. Specifically, the Dems should note what happened to Labour for basically telling the far left to sod off in regards to Gaza: effectively nothing. They lost a small handful of seats because of it, but it never threatened their overall victory. The anti-Israel contingent on the left is a lot louder than it is powerful.

The Tories escaped with close to the best possible outcome here. There was no way to avoid Labour getting a huge majority of seats, but they weren’t reduced to an absurd minority, they weren’t seriously challenged for second place, they weren’t wiped off the map in London, the Home Counties, or Scotland, and Reform won only 5 seats and will be the 6th largest party. They still have serious work to do to shore up their right flank, but Farage has relatively little leverage after this result

 

[UncleMark]

Shock results in France today as well. Far right big losers. Fools thought they were going to take Prime Minister.

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

yes congratulations to the Palestinians… er I mean French.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

yes congratulations to the Palestinians… er I mean French.

View embedded media

That’s a third world shithole now

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

That’s an overstatement. Read this summary.

“It’s a political upheaval, even if the National Rally doesn’t end up running the country,” said Benjamin Morel, political analyst at Panthéon-Assas University, Paris.

Le Pen’s movement are “the big winners of the election,” said Morel. “Millions of votes translates into a big financial windfall,” he said with reference to the state funding that will follow the result.

That puts Le Pen in a powerful position — with a perfect grievance to exploit — ahead of her likely campaign for the French presidency when Macron steps aside in 2027. “They’ve got a great narrative ahead of the 2027: They can say that their victory was stolen, and they are the real alternative,” Morel said.

I would be very bearish on France over the next two decades

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Hey at least France will force their Jews out

 

[Spartans9312]

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

It’s interesting that Macron may have called the election open to “winning by losing” if RN took a majority and became unpopular. Instead, RN may have won by losing