Across the pond

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Could be fascinating election results in the UK today. Labour will definitely win in a landslide, but it's a question of how big of one, and also just how far the conservatives drop. There is a realistic scenario in which the Tories end up in fourth, behind the Lib Dems and Reform both (Reform is the hard right anti-immigration party that used to be the Brexit party).

Results start coming in around 6pm Eastern time.

 

[Noodle]

No way the Tories were at risk of finishing fourth but they got spanked big time. Reform party also did not do very well. It’s also crazy that Sunak has to move out of 10 Downing Street tomorrow. They don’t waste any time.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

No way the Tories were at risk of finishing fourth but they got spanked big time. Reform party also did not do very well. It’s also crazy that Sunak has to move out of 10 Downing Street tomorrow. They don’t waste any time.

Wow. The exit poll is astonishing. It suggests Reform and the Lib Dems really fell short, although almost certainly for very different reasons.

EDIT: I misread the poll. Lib Dems are doing just fine.

Considering how poorly the country things of them right now, 130+ seats for the Tories is a solid showing.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Bonus: Scottish independence is dead as a doornail for now. SNP getting completely wiped out.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Reform is doing really well in Labour seats, easily displacing the conservatives for second.

 

[Spartans9312]

Wow. The exit poll is astonishing. It suggests Reform and the Lib Dems really fell short, although almost certainly for very different reasons.

EDIT: I misread the poll. Lib Dems are doing just fine.

Considering how poorly the country things of them right now, 130+ seats for the Tories is a solid showing.

Close to 150 seats and no Reform breakthrough is the best outcome the Tories could have asked for

 

[Noodle]

Reform is doing really well in Labour seats, easily displaying the conservatives for second.

How do you figure? Reform is only projected to have 13 seats. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

How do you figure? Reform is only projected to have 13 seats. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt

Protest voting. Conservatives in seats they don't think they can win are switching heavily to Reform.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

There’s an irony in Britain voting to destroy their country on the 4th of July.

 

[Noodle]

How do you figure? Reform is only projected to have 13 seats. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt

OK I get what you were saying. But Reform still will have a minuscule number of actual seats.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

OK I get what you were saying. But Reform still will have a minuscule number of actual seats.

Yes, their breakthrough is illusory.

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

Long live the king!!

 

[Spartans9312]

No way the Tories were at risk of finishing fourth but they got spanked big time. Reform party also did not do very well. It’s also crazy that Sunak has to move out of 10 Downing Street tomorrow. They don’t waste any time.

Wonder if Sunak follows Nick Clegg to a high ranking gig in Silicon Valley

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Could be fascinating election results in the UK today. Labour will definitely win in a landslide, but it's a question of how big of one, and also just how far the conservatives drop. There is a realistic scenario in which the Tories end up in fourth, behind the Lib Dems and Reform both (Reform is the hard right anti-immigration party that used to be the Brexit party).

Results start coming in around 6pm Eastern time.

I’m eager to revisit this thread in a few years

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

I found this interesting for those who like to bemoan the EC and Senate as being “undemocratic”.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I found this interesting for those who like to bemoan the EC and Senate as being “undemocratic”.

View embedded media

As mentioned above, protest votes. Lots of people on the right in districts Labour was going to win anyway voted for Reform as a protest against the Tories. Reform came in second place in a lot of races, and racked up lots of votes that didn't bring any seats.

Conversely, the Lib Dems got their biggest share of seats ever, despite getting far fewer votes than Reform, because people strategically voted for them over Labour in districts where Labour had no chance, but the Tories were vulnerable.

On a different note, I think Americans can take some lessons from these results. Specifically, the Dems should note what happened to Labour for basically telling the far left to sod off in regards to Gaza: effectively nothing. They lost a small handful of seats because of it, but it never threatened their overall victory. The anti-Israel contingent on the left is a lot louder than it is powerful.

 

[Spartans9312]

The Tories lost The Cities of London and Westminster seat

 

[Noodle]

Shock results in France today as well. Far right big losers. Fools thought they were going to take Prime Minister.

 

[Spartans9312]

As mentioned above, protest votes. Lots of people on the right in districts Labour was going to win anyway voted for Reform as a protest against the Tories. Reform came in second place in a lot of races, and racked up lots of votes that didn't bring any seats.

Conversely, the Lib Dems got their biggest share of seats ever, despite getting far fewer votes than Reform, because people strategically voted for them over Labour in districts where Labour had no chance, but the Tories were vulnerable.

On a different note, I think Americans can take some lessons from these results. Specifically, the Dems should note what happened to Labour for basically telling the far left to sod off in regards to Gaza: effectively nothing. They lost a small handful of seats because of it, but it never threatened their overall victory. The anti-Israel contingent on the left is a lot louder than it is powerful.

The Tories escaped with close to the best possible outcome here. There was no way to avoid Labour getting a huge majority of seats, but they weren’t reduced to an absurd minority, they weren’t seriously challenged for second place, they weren’t wiped off the map in London, the Home Counties, or Scotland, and Reform won only 5 seats and will be the 6th largest party. They still have serious work to do to shore up their right flank, but Farage has relatively little leverage after this result

 

[UncleMark]

Shock results in France today as well. Far right big losers. Fools thought they were going to take Prime Minister.

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

yes congratulations to the Palestinians… er I mean French.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

yes congratulations to the Palestinians… er I mean French.

View embedded media

That’s a third world shithole now

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

That’s an overstatement. Read this summary.

“It’s a political upheaval, even if the National Rally doesn’t end up running the country,” said Benjamin Morel, political analyst at Panthéon-Assas University, Paris.

Le Pen’s movement are “the big winners of the election,” said Morel. “Millions of votes translates into a big financial windfall,” he said with reference to the state funding that will follow the result.

That puts Le Pen in a powerful position — with a perfect grievance to exploit — ahead of her likely campaign for the French presidency when Macron steps aside in 2027. “They’ve got a great narrative ahead of the 2027: They can say that their victory was stolen, and they are the real alternative,” Morel said.

I would be very bearish on France over the next two decades

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Hey at least France will force their Jews out

 

[Spartans9312]

Sounds like Macron smacked LePen down pretty good. Maybe the move to the right in Europe isn't as strong as people thought.

It’s interesting that Macron may have called the election open to “winning by losing” if RN took a majority and became unpopular. Instead, RN may have won by losing

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Let this be a lesson to all of you who complain about the two party system. Macron has had to get in bed with literal communists and Islamists to save his hide. Le Pen's party isn't tenable because although it has some strong Conservatives in it, it has it's roots in the literal Vichy France government and has a not insignificant amount of Nazi Sympathizers. Same with the AfD in Germany. These voices get drowned out and hopefully moderated in a two party system.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

View embedded media

It’s interesting that Macron may have called the election open to “winning by losing” if RN took a majority and became unpopular. Instead, RN may have won by losing

Exactly. Consolidation of three leftist parties into one and 200 plus participants dropping out was what it took to give leftists the win, although to be clear, they have no majority. Trying to enact things like the above would be literally impossible.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Shock results in France today as well. Far right big losers. Fools thought they were going to take Prime Minister.

I'd like to understand how the voting translates into seats. Similar to England, where conservative parties won a significant % of the popular vote, it didn't translate into any political power.

We've heard Democrats complaining about the idea of an Electoral College, but this concept seems to be aiding leftist parties on the other side of the pond. Seems odd to be complaining about the popular vote here but ignoring it in other contexts.

 

[Spartans9312]

Exactly. Consolidation of three leftist parties into one and 200 plus participants dropping out was what it took to give leftists the win, although to be clear, they have no majority. Trying to enact things like the above would be literally impossible.

2024 French elections: Map and chart of results

French voters returned to the polls on Sunday, July 7, to elect a new Assemblée Nationale and determine who will be in a position to govern France. See how many seats each party won and the district-by-district map.

www.lemonde.fr

Very interesting that the two Indian Ocean island territories each sent a RN member to Parliament

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

2024 French elections: Map and chart of results

French voters returned to the polls on Sunday, July 7, to elect a new Assemblée Nationale and determine who will be in a position to govern France. See how many seats each party won and the district-by-district map.

www.lemonde.fr

Very interesting that the two Indian Ocean island territories each sent a RN member to Parliament

Not surprising that North Africa was the only area abroad to nominate a far left member.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

2024 French elections: Map and chart of results

French voters returned to the polls on Sunday, July 7, to elect a new Assemblée Nationale and determine who will be in a position to govern France. See how many seats each party won and the district-by-district map.

www.lemonde.fr

Very interesting that the two Indian Ocean island territories each sent a RN member to Parliament

Considering how well Le Pen did in the overseas territories during the presidential election, two seats might actually be a disappointment.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Hey at least France will force their Jews out

View embedded media

Merkel opened Europe up for the invasion. How we lookin'?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

France is lucky it can block the NPF. This would have been disastrous for the country.

• a new 90% tax on any annual income above €400,000 (£337,954)
• 
  
• price controls on essential foods, electricity, gas and petrol
• lowering the retirement age to 60

The left-wing French coalition hoping to introduce 90% tax on rich

Multiple parties are jockeying for position in the aftermath of France's seismic snap election. The leftist New Popular Front (NPF) insists its ideas should be implemented.

news.sky.com

France Leftists’ Plans Include 90% Top Marginal Income Tax Rate

France’s leftist alliance would raise the top marginal income tax rate to 90% if it were to take over the government following legislative elections that run through July 7.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[VanPastorMan]

There’s an irony in Britain voting to destroy their country on the 4th of July.

Unfortunately we can't save them a third time from themselves.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Reading the headlines today about Biden losing support, it really sounds like we have switched to parliamentary elections.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Reading the headlines today about Biden losing support, it really sounds like we have switched to parliamentary elections.

Is that good or bad?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Is that good or bad?

Your mileage may vary. I am a small "d" democrat. On one hand I hate he was coronated without opposition. On the other, the big money people stopping cash to get him out also isn't something I like.

A new law, keep billionaire taxes close to where they are. However, if they donate a penny to a PAC, a candidate, an issue, their taxes go to 1960 levels.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Hey at least France will force their Jews out

How about that @Noodle ?

France Unbowed MP sparks outrage by saying Israeli Olympians not welcome

Thomas Portes accused of ‘putting a target on the backs of Israeli athletes’ with remarks at protest against Gaza war

www.theguardian.com

“We are just a few days away from an international event to be held in Paris, the Olympic Games. And I’m here to say that no, the Israeli delegation is not welcome in Paris. Israeli athletes are not welcome at the Olympic Games in Paris. We have to use this deadline and all the levers we have to mobilise.”

 

[Noodle]

How about that @Noodle ?

France Unbowed MP sparks outrage by saying Israeli Olympians not welcome

Thomas Portes accused of ‘putting a target on the backs of Israeli athletes’ with remarks at protest against Gaza war

www.theguardian.com

“We are just a few days away from an international event to be held in Paris, the Olympic Games. And I’m here to say that no, the Israeli delegation is not welcome in Paris. Israeli athletes are not welcome at the Olympic Games in Paris. We have to use this deadline and all the levers we have to mobilise.”

Why are you asking me? Sounds like France is a lot like the US in that they too elect some nut jobs. This clown is from a far left fringe party.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Why are you asking me? Sounds like France is a lot like the US in that they too elect some nut jobs. This clown is from a far left fringe party.

You seemed excited that Le Pen's far right party lost ground in the second round of voting. Yet, all that occurred was France enabling this guy and his ilk. They went from one extreme to the other.