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'22-23 roster

This whole thing is going to be fluid. Some kids will make decisions based on what other kids do. Some will make their own decisions without any regard for anyone else. We have incoming freshman to consider. We have a roster where every single one could decide they want to come back. We have transfer rules that would allow most of them to transfer wherever they want without having to sit out.

So here's a stab...

-TJD will announce he's going pro here very soon.
-Race will announce soon after he's leaving to pursue other opportunities.
-Those decisions will sway Durr and Duncombe to stay.
-The TJD and Race decisions will make IU a popular school for portal bigs to consider.
-Miller and Parker will leave. Done all together, or transfer if they'll have graduated.
-Khristian will transfer.
-Everyone else will stay.

We'll be forced to play differently. Durr and Dumcombe will anchor the new style "5" position for us. Much more of a Kevon Looney/Andrew Bogut type role. Defend, rebound, pick and roll, hit open 15 footers. Obviously if we land a starter level transfer in this spot, it'll have an impact as well.

Jordan and Kaleb will man our new "4" position. Long, athletic, able to stretch the floor, active on the glass. Hopefully able to freely switch and guard all positions. Same as above, with regards to starter level transfer, and their impact here.

The rest will be whoever the best combination of backcourt players are. Xavier for sure. Hopefully JHS is as good overall, and as physically ready, as we think he is. Bates, Trey, and then CJ Gunn maybe. A knock down shooting transfer would be huge here. And would cut into everyones minutes that I've already mentioned. I don't think it changes how our backcourt would play much though.

That's our main core 9-10 next year. If we can get a couple impact transfers, that'll be huge. But even if we don't, if the returning guys I said come back, I think we'll be just as competitive as we were this year. VERY, VERY different. And replacing TJD and Race will be rough. But that would also force us, most likely, to completely change our style of play. Which could end up being a good thing.
one big issue I see: where would 3 pt shooting come from on that team? We were already bad, and Kopp and Stewart were regularly roasted on here, but % wise I think they were still our 2 best shooters and XJ benefitted from the attention paid to them on the perimeter, and having lesser defenders and his funky shot. On the roster you are describing, he's about the only one other teams would have to guard closely. I'd close out on JG, and not give him set looks from 3, but if I were defending that team, I'd make Galloway prove he can make 3s. You'd live with a worse shooting team than the one we had this year? Cause that team would be worse shooting.
 
Phin had one good game vs Purdue and all of a sudden people claimed boy did we miss him when he was out. When he came back he was the same old rob. You will get an occasional good game but normally it is the same old stuff.
... on the offensive end. I believe he was always a pretty steady defender.
 
Phin had one good game vs Purdue and all of a sudden people claimed boy did we miss him when he was out. When he came back he was the same old rob. You will get an occasional good game but normally it is the same old stuff.

When he came back he was maybe playing at 80% capacity

And it wasn't just one good game, the 7 game stretch (all BT opponents) before Phin's injury, he was averaging more points, rebounds, assists than either Kopp/Stewart. Take away each of their best games during that stretch to remove bias from the Purdue game, and Phin is still outscoring Kopp and only trailed Stewart by about a point per game. Plus, Phin is the best defender of the 3.

Also, this isn't a complete defense of Phin, and more a criticism of Stewart/Kopp.
 
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I don't think UE can afford Michael Lewis.

But if he's looking for a HC job, then UE would be foolish not to reach out (assuming TL retires or is not retained).

I'm not sure there's a D1 basketball program that is a bigger mess right now than Evansville. What's maybe most remarkable about it is that the collapse began right after beating UK at Rupp.

Part of their problem is that the University itself is in a financial bind. They've been figuring out ways to bail water for a couple years now. They're looking for a new AD -- the one who hired McCarty was just politely asked to make his desk available for somebody else.

But yeah, they're not going to attract much of a coach by paying ~$300K. I haven't looked at Michael's salary at UCLA. But I'm sure it's considerably higher than that.

I think they should think about dropping back in class -- especially with USI going D1.
 
I'm not sure there's a D1 basketball program that is a bigger mess right now than Evansville. What's maybe most remarkable about it is that the collapse began right after beating UK at Rupp.

Part of their problem is that the University itself is in a financial bind. They've been figuring out ways to bail water for a couple years now. They're looking for a new AD -- the one who hired McCarty was just politely asked to make his desk available for somebody else.

But yeah, they're not going to attract much of a coach by paying ~$300K. I haven't looked at Michael's salary at UCLA. But I'm sure it's considerably higher than that.

I think they should think about dropping back in class -- especially with USI going D1.
If UE is so shortsighted to cave to USI, the admin are truly knuckleheads. UE needs to stay D1, and stay in the MVC. UE wIll never be invited to a mid major conference as strong as the MVC, ever again. Sign a solid coach, make amends with the fanbase, and get competitive.
 
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one big issue I see: where would 3 pt shooting come from on that team? We were already bad, and Kopp and Stewart were regularly roasted on here, but % wise I think they were still our 2 best shooters and XJ benefitted from the attention paid to them on the perimeter, and having lesser defenders and his funky shot. On the roster you are describing, he's about the only one other teams would have to guard closely. I'd close out on JG, and not give him set looks from 3, but if I were defending that team, I'd make Galloway prove he can make 3s. You'd live with a worse shooting team than the one we had this year? Cause that team would be worse shooting.

I think Johnson's success was more about getting space because of his speed and ability to dribble penetrate.

Also, I think too much of the offensive troubles are attributed IU's 3 point shooting. Both Texas and Texas Tech had similar if not worse 3 point shooting compared to IU - all about 6 makes per game and IU had the best percentage. Texas Tech which is still in the tournament and ranked 12th in the country is just shooting 31% from 3.

The biggest issue with IU's offense was having too many minutes eaten up by 3 point specialists (Kopp/Stewart) that were too hesitant to shoot and that otherwise mostly stood around on offense because they couldn't do anything else. Unfortunately due to injuries to Phin/Galloway and Bates' struggles on defense, they were forced into more playing time than they should have gotten.
 
My update predictions:

-TJD stays
-Thompson gone
-Stewart gone
-Durr gone
-Lander gone

Starters:
Johnson
Galloway
Kopp
Geronimo
TJD

Bench:
Banks
Bates
Hood-Schifano
Phinisee
Duncomb
Leal
Gunn
 
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My update predictions:

-TJD stays
-Thompson gone
-Stewart gone
-Durr gone
-Lander gone

Starters:
Johnson
Galloway
Kopp
Geronimo
TJD

Bench:
Banks
Bates
Hood-Schifano
Phinisee
Duncomb
Leal
Gunn
Think that is best case outcome and you still have a scholarship to burn in the portal or 2022 class.
 
If UE is so shortsighted to cave to USI, the admin are truly knuckleheads. UE needs to stay D1, and stay in the MVC. UE wIll never be invited to a mid major conference as strong as the MVC, ever again. Sign a solid coach, make amends with the fanbase, and get competitive.
They’re so starved of funds that they can’t even afford to keep a number of academic programs active. Their BBall attendance has been pathetic. They’re still facing potential civil liabilities over the McCarty fiasco.

I just don’t see things improving for them without some kind of outside financial infusion. But I’m pulling for them.
 
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They’re so starved of funds that they can’t even afford to keep a number of academic programs active. Their BBall attendance has been pathetic. They’re still facing potential civil liabilities over the McCarty fiasco.

I just don’t see things improving for them without some kind of outside financial infusion. But I’m pulling for them.
Sad, as the Aces were so beloved by the area in the 70's, that they drew 9k to Roberts Stadium as a D2 team. That support continued thru the 80's and 90's, and then the bonehead decisions started, affecting attendance and donors.
 
If Woody wants to hold on to Stewart and Kopp- I’ll know he’s going to fail in bringing IU back to relevance. Have we made another bad hire?
Lander, Leal, Galloway, Phin, Duncomb, etc are all way worse. You’d cut those before you ever got to Stewart or Kopp.
 
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Durr would have to sit unless he tried Euro ball.
There is nothing that says Woodson cannot tell him thanks but it is time for you to move on. There is zero reason for us to keep him if he is not going to play and if we can upgrade at his position.
 
There is nothing that says Woodson cannot tell him thanks but it is time for you to move on. There is zero reason for us to keep him if he is not going to play and if we can upgrade at his position.
For what it's worth, Woodson said from day one he aspired to implement a four-out, guard-oriented offense. If he feels Durr doesn't fit what he's looking for in a rim protector in that offense, good for him. Either Logan Duncomb fits what he's looking for (doubtful), Jackson-Davis will return (doubtful), or he will find the right guy in the transfer portal.
 
There's no way to predict transfers, but in my estimation, this is what next season's roster will look like:

- Xavier Johnson
- Rob Phinisee
- Anthony Leal
- Jordan Geronimo
- Trey Galloway
- Khristian Lander
- Logan Duncomb
- Tamar Bates
- CJ Gunn
- Jalen Hood-Schifino
- Kaleb Banks
- Transfer Shooter
- Transfer Big

I don't see any way Woodson hangs on to Miller Kopp or Parker Stewart. Jackson-Davis will chase his NBA dreams. Race Thompson will move on after five years. Michael Durr will move on.

Thoughts?
Well, it looks like I'm 1-for-2 so far. I predicted Durr leaving, but missed on Lander. I should have thought about that one a little harder.
 
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