We have a lot of offers out there, but are we actually in the lead with anyone?

[snarlcakes]

I'm about 55-45 in the hater club, but there are enough things that I like to give me off-season optimism. One thing that I like, that I think most people really underestimate, is the talent level.

As you know, I keep track of the star ratings for Rivals, 247 and ESPN for all of the power 6 conferences. I'm currently updating rosters for 2019-20, with only the Big 10 and ACC complete. Anyway, I highlight every player that is 4-Star or better by at least 2 services, and the Big Ten/ACC average is 5 of these highly touted recruits on each roster. IU has 9 currently, which trails only MSU (11) and Maryland (10). We are also tied with UNC and UofL. 16 of the 29 teams in the Big 10/ACC have 5 or fewer players on their roster that received 4-Star status (or better) from at least 2 services.

I think the roster structure, depth of talent and experience level should put IU in a great position to be a major surprise this season relative to the prognostications that I've seen so far. As of right now, I think 55-45 is a pretty reasonable stance in either direction, but I have a feeling that won't be the case at this time next season.

I enjoy your replies because you are continually reassessing your own opinion based on the factors that you see as relevant.

Have you thought about ranging the rankings yourself? For example 1-30 4 points, 31-75, 3 points and etc. I’m not sure what the ranges should be, but I think it would give much better data for betting purposes. It would be a pain in the a#%, but with the expansion of 4 stars it seems like it would be more accurate information. The equal weighting of 4 stars seems like the biggest flaw to me?

 

[PranksterMary]

No! However, for the purposes of my off-season prep work, I use those rankings along with class (frosh, soph.. etc) as gospel. I watch a lot of video and game replays as well as track analytics to help determine proper bets. My only concern is trying to make profitable wagers. I have to start each season somewhere and most of the stuff I talk about here is my base off-season numbers, which will often vary greatly from my in-season power rankings... even though mine are not arrived at by the same method that most are.

Over a period of years, if a coach continually fails to exceed the off-season base numbers, I will rarely bet on that coach. Alford was tricky for me, because he was so good at the mid-major level that I still believed even after my own numbers said that I shouldn't. Other than Alford, though, I haven't been tricked often. Archie through two years (which isn't enough) looks a bit like Alford, so I totally get jumping off the bandwagon. I'll be jumping myself, if IU isn't pretty damned good this season.

Thank you.

 

[Paterfamilias]

Have you thought about ranging the rankings yourself? For example 1-30 4 points, 31-75, 3 points and etc. I’m not sure what the ranges should be, but I think it would give much better data for betting purposes. It would be a pain in the a#%, but with the expansion of 4 stars it seems like it would be more accurate information.

That's basically what I do. I started this for playing in a fantasy college hoops league of all things. There were no magazines out to create cheat sheets, so I decided to try to make my own. I got carried away though and put hundreds of hours into it. In fact, I spend almost all of my free time on College Basketball and Horse Racing.

Anyway, what I eventually did was break recruiting rankings for 8 years into groups (1-10... 11-25... 26-50... 51-75... 76-100... All 4 Star, Majority 4 star, All 3 star, majority 3 star... 2 star... Juco... Foreign... Unranked)

Then I broke each group into (Frosh-Soph-Junior-Senior) and found performance average for each. So there are something like 40-50 different base rankings that might be applied to a kid just based on his ranking and class.

It gets tricky for transfers, foreign recruits and Juco players, so I read about every player, watch available video and use available stats.

Anyway, it's in depth. Recruiting rankings and experience are a start, because you have to start somewhere. Based on where I start, IU should be good. I rate coaches on their ability to meet and exceed these base rankings.

 

[snarlcakes]

That's basically what I do. I started this for playing in a fantasy college hoops league of all things. There were no magazines out to create cheat sheets, so I decided to try to make my own. I got carried away though and put hundreds of hours into it. In fact, I spend almost all of my free time on College Basketball and Horse Racing.

Anyway, what I eventually did was break recruiting rankings for 8 years into groups (1-10... 11-25... 26-50... 51-75... 76-100... All 4 Star, Majority 4 star, All 3 star, majority 3 star... 2 star... Juco... Foreign... Unranked)

Then I broke each group into (Frosh-Soph-Junior-Senior) and found performance average for each. So there are something like 40-50 different base rankings that might be applied to a kid just based on his ranking and class.

It gets tricky for transfers, foreign recruits and Juco players, so I read about every player, watch available video and use available stats.

Anyway, it's in depth. Recruiting rankings and experience are a start, because you have to start somewhere. Based on where I start, IU should be good. I rate coaches on their ability to meet and exceed these base rankings.

Gotcha. I had only seen you reference 4 stars, so I was unsure. It looks like you have a lot of time on your hand
I will say, I have played poker professionally/semiprofessional the last 10+ years and it’s a lot easier than betting games. You might want to try it out. I’m -EV for sports betting. I hope you do well.

 

[fpeaugh]

When Archie wins, and he will, then you had better disappear. Your assassination of Archie's coaching ability and character is irreparable to your reputation. I cannot wait....

remember this when Archie and IU are rocking again....

Wins what?

A Big Ten Tournament game? A NIT game? A NCAA Tournament game? At this point any of those would be an upgrade.

 

[snarlcakes]

That's basically what I do. I started this for playing in a fantasy college hoops league of all things. There were no magazines out to create cheat sheets, so I decided to try to make my own. I got carried away though and put hundreds of hours into it. In fact, I spend almost all of my free time on College Basketball and Horse Racing.

Anyway, what I eventually did was break recruiting rankings for 8 years into groups (1-10... 11-25... 26-50... 51-75... 76-100... All 4 Star, Majority 4 star, All 3 star, majority 3 star... 2 star... Juco... Foreign... Unranked)

Then I broke each group into (Frosh-Soph-Junior-Senior) and found performance average for each. So there are something like 40-50 different base rankings that might be applied to a kid just based on his ranking and class.

It gets tricky for transfers, foreign recruits and Juco players, so I read about every player, watch available video and use available stats.

Anyway, it's in depth. Recruiting rankings and experience are a start, because you have to start somewhere. Based on where I start, IU should be good. I rate coaches on their ability to meet and exceed these base rankings.

A couple more thoughts. Have you ever ran the numbers where you phase out the recruiting service rankings entirely(or weight them less)for upperclassmen? For example use your model for freshmen. Maybe use the Torvik numbers only for juniors and some combination of both for sophomores? I assume Torvik numbers are the least efficient for freshmen and recruiting rankings might still be a better measure? Sorry, I enjoy this type of stuff.

 

[Paterfamilias]

A couple more thoughts. Have you ever ran the numbers where you phase out the recruiting service rankings entirely(or weight them less)for upperclassmen? For example use your model for freshmen. Maybe use the Torvik numbers only for juniors and some combination of both for sophomores? I assume Torvik numbers are the least efficient for freshmen and recruiting rankings might still be a better measure? Sorry, I enjoy this type of stuff.

It would probably be fun to play around with, but I'm thinking that Torvik, Kenpom and TeamRankings are already doing a better job than I would do anyway. TMP and his group probably are doing almost exactly what you are talking about.

I already use those resources a great deal so my work would be redundant. Where my off-season stuff helps me is that I can quickly see that team A has really been performing well relative to it's talent... why? Why is team B under-performing... can it be turned around. It makes me watch so many videos and read so many articles and fan posts, that by the time the season rolls around I've got pages of notes of things I want to watch for in each teams first couple of games. Most of my profit the last 2 season has been made before the start of conference season. Last year, I actually lost a little after Jan 1. Overall it was a decent good season, but I was treading water myself during IU's losing streak... not fun! That's the next thing I have to figure out; why is my edge deteriorating as the season progresses?

Anyway, my responses here are mostly just to say that these crappy 9th or 10th place projections are not in line with our roster on paper. Perhaps our roster is way less talented than it seems on paper... who's fault is that? Is it Rivals fault or is it our coaching staffs fault for doing a poor scouting/development job. Brian Snow (or whoever) isn't responsible for putting our roster together and bringing it along. I think IU's players should fairly regularly live up to or exceed their recruiting rankings. If they don't, it's on the coaches.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I am simply stating facts, that is all. If this is somehow a game, or a contest to you, my recommendation would be to get yourself a life. As for being clever, I would rather be right than clever, and as far as my statements go, they are correct. Interpret them as you will for your own purpose or agenda and have some fun with them if you must, if that is what gets your pathetic ass off.

Well stated and accurate based upon a factual review of the posts.

 

[PranksterMary]

392

484

 

[HoosiersChamps]

Well stated and accurate based upon a factual review of the posts.

Thank you. Trolls are ruining these message boards and taking the fun out of talking about IU basketball with other true IU fans.

 

[birdforbogey]

Did we skip 420? Bummer

 

[PranksterMary]

You couldn't upset me if you tried, as I have a life beyond these boards. I just wish that I would have identified you for the troll you are before wasting my time with you. Fly away little fruit fly. Fly away.

You found yourself on the wrong side of the facts and lacked the good sense to admit that. That’s been the case with another poster in this thread who tried to lie his way through some issues and got caught. That hardly makes me a troll.

 

[snarlcakes]

It would probably be fun to play around with, but I'm thinking that Torvik, Kenpom and TeamRankings are already doing a better job than I would do anyway. TMP and his group probably are doing almost exactly what you are talking about.

I already use those resources a great deal so my work would be redundant. Where my off-season stuff helps me is that I can quickly see that team A has really been performing well relative to it's talent... why? Why is team B under-performing... can it be turned around. It makes me watch so many videos and read so many articles and fan posts, that by the time the season rolls around I've got pages of notes of things I want to watch for in each teams first couple of games. Most of my profit the last 2 season has been made before the start of conference season. Last year, I actually lost a little after Jan 1. Overall it was a decent good season, but I was treading water myself during IU's losing streak... not fun! That's the next thing I have to figure out; why is my edge deteriorating as the season progresses?

Anyway, my responses here are mostly just to say that these crappy 9th or 10th place projections are not in line with our roster on paper. Perhaps our roster is way less talented than it seems on paper... who's fault is that? Is it Rivals fault or is it our coaching staffs fault for doing a poor scouting/development job. Brian Snow (or whoever) isn't responsible for putting our roster together and bringing it along. I think IU's players should fairly regularly live up to or exceed their recruiting rankings. If they don't, it's on the coaches.

My guess is you have edge at the beginning of the season. Bet more then! Most likely all the other models/bettors catch up as more games are played .

I think predictions would be better if they ranged teams instead of ranking them 1 to 25. 9th or 10th for IU seems low. I think we will end up a couple spots higher. The Big Ten should be a weaker conference next year.

 

[Cutter1973]

I'm about 55-45 in the hater club, but there are enough things that I like to give me off-season optimism. One thing that I like, that I think most people really underestimate, is the talent level.

As you know, I keep track of the star ratings for Rivals, 247 and ESPN for all of the power 6 conferences. I'm currently updating rosters for 2019-20, with only the Big 10 and ACC complete. Anyway, I highlight every player that is 4-Star or better by at least 2 services, and the Big Ten/ACC average is 5 of these highly touted recruits on each roster. IU has 9 currently, which trails only MSU (11) and Maryland (10). We are also tied with UNC and UofL. 16 of the 29 teams in the Big 10/ACC have 5 or fewer players on their roster that received 4-Star status (or better) from at least 2 services.

I think the roster structure, depth of talent and experience level should put IU in a great position to be a major surprise this season relative to the prognostications that I've seen so far. As of right now, I think 55-45 is a pretty reasonable stance in either direction, but I have a feeling that won't be the case at this time next season.

I enjoy your replies because you are continually reassessing your own opinion based on the factors that you see as relevant.

I really enjoy your posts and insights that you give. Thank you for the research and sharing with us!

 

[TommyCracker]

I really enjoy your posts and insights that you give. Thank you for the research and sharing with us!

I second this motion.

Thanks Pater for sharing your insights and providing entertaining discussion.

 

[T.M.P.]

Thanks Pater for sharing your insights and providing entertaining discussion.

Echo ...

 

[Paterfamilias]

I really enjoy your posts and insights that you give. Thank you for the research and sharing with us!

I second this motion.

Thanks Pater for sharing your insights and providing entertaining discussion.

Echo ...

Thanks guys, very kind of you to say... and ditto back at ya

 

[HoosiersChamps]

You stated that no player had committed to any school, and that was false. Sorry if my pointing that out upsets you.

Name one that has signed an LOI with any school. There are almost 400 schools so this should be easy for you.

 

[PranksterMary]

Name one that has signed an LOI with any school. There are almost 400 schools so this should be easy for you.

And that you’re unaware of the distinction between a commitment and and a NLI says everything about your knowledge of the recruiting world. Why don’t we just agree on that and move forward, please?

 

[ufo33]

Down to Final 2 with Leal.

 

[ufo33]

Down to Final 2 with Leal.

IU needs shooters.
Leal is a shooter.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Down to Final 2 with Leal.

Two great academic institutions, two beautiful campuses two good programs. May depend on whether he wants to get away and experience a very different location.

 

[Squonk too]

Two great academic institutions, two beautiful campuses two good programs. May depend on whether he wants to get away and experience a very different location.

Stanford worries me, since it's an obviously higher-rated university, and he has a high GPA, for what it's worth.

 

[OhioBoiler51]

Stanford worries me, since it's an obviously higher-rated university, and he has a high GPA, for what it's worth.

A Bloomington kid wouldn't put IU in his final 2 and not choose them unless the other school in his top 2 was also close to home IMO. I'd be confident that he's staying home

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Stanford worries me, since it's an obviously higher-rated university, and he has a high GPA, for what it's worth.

It is higher rated overall but IU has many programs that compete. What does he want to study?

 

[Paterfamilias]

Yup and adding @Paterfamilias to this ..

Verbal commits has IU ranked second in talent using only people rankings. Pater I suspect has them top 5 using rankings and experience. We have IU 7th using PER and eff stats and balancing them with people rankings, Torvik has IU 11th using only eff stats..

the more ranking based the higher the expectation, the more stats based the lower.

Which means .. we have too many players not producing stats relative to their ranking. AD, RP, JS being the biggest culprits and DG for most of the season. For RP being a freshman, it's excusable and I suspect he'll improve drastically .. AD and JS were both huge disappointments last year statistically and DG still hasn't proven he can be consistent.

Though I'm pretty much happy with the depth and personnel in the frontcourt, the backcourt is very questionable.

I convert all of my stuff into projected Sagarin Ratings, to give sort of a ballpark power rating prior to box scores rolling in. Anyway, keep in mind that I'm really not as optimistic as these preseason numbers, but I have IU in 2nd within half a Sagarin point of MSU. The numbers are what they are, but year after year I see a handful of my surprise teams materialize into really profitable teams to bet, particularly early in the season. Unfortunately, quite a few turn out to be duds just as expected by the talking heads. Inexperience seems to be the common thread for the duds not panning out, but it's mostly just guesswork to waste time until bball season gets here.

I should probably add that my ratings only have MSU with a number that would be about #15 or so. If I were at home, I would try to show why they don't have MSU #1 like everybody else. I'm making my first trip to Saratoga for the Jim Dandy Stakes this weekend, so I'm on the road with basketball on the back burner for a few days. If you like to bet on a horse from time to time, I kinda like a longshot in the Jim Dandy (#3 Mihos 15-1).

Don't take it to the bank or nothing like that I bet to win a lot when I'm right, rather than be right a lot. I'm excited for the trip, so I thought I'd tout a little... probably means he'll bring up the rear

 

[PranksterMary]

Stanford worries me, since it's an obviously higher-rated university, and he has a high GPA, for what it's worth.

If he selects a University based mostly on the academic setting, Stanford will be his destination. No knock on IU, but Stanford is a world class institution consistently rated among the top universities in the country and world. Purely from an academic standpoint, there’s really no comparison with IU.

Athletically, they’re also quite good, though the basketball program has lagged behind many of their other sports for some time. Having his family and friends be able to attend games will likely be a big deal, as will living the dream of competing for his hometown school. Would be surprising if he doesn’t pick IU.

 

[ufo33]

If he selects a University based mostly on the academic setting, Stanford will be his destination. No knock on IU, but Stanford is a world class institution consistently rated among the top universities in the country and world. Purely from an academic standpoint, there’s really no comparison with IU.

Athletically, they’re also quite good, though the basketball program has lagged behind many of their other sports for some time. Having his family and friends be able to attend games will likely be a big deal, as will living the dream of competing for his hometown school. Would be surprising if he doesn’t pick IU.

Since Leal is playing Basketball and not football, I expect him to pick IU.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

HA! How dumb do you think these kids are? Everyone knows if you have a pulse you can play at IU right now. There’s no reason to commit if you have other options.

This aged well....

 

[fpeaugh]

This aged well....

This kid seems like a good kid but he’s not exactly being courted by elite programs.

 

[Squonk too]

This kid seems like a good kid but he’s not exactly being courted by elite programs.

Michigan State, by both Coach Tom Izzo and Assistant Coach Dane Fife.

https://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Galloway-46050483/

 

[fpeaugh]

Michigan State, by both Coach Tom Izzo and Assistant Coach Dane Fife.

https://247sports.com/Player/Trey-Galloway-46050483/

I wouldn’t call him a top prospect for them. Look, he’s a good kid but these aren’t program changing recruits. Let’s hope he’s our worst recruit and not one of the best.

 

[Squonk too]

I wouldn’t call him a top prospect for them. Look, he’s a good kid but these aren’t program changing recruits. Let’s hope he’s our worst recruit and not one of the best.

I think it's credible that Michigan State put a lot of effort into getting a verbal commitment from Galloway: they don't have any verbal commits for the 2020 class yet. And MSU coaches have a rich history of poaching Indiana high school talent.

 

[minneman]

fpeaugh negativity:

fpeaugh: No HS kids want to play for Miller.

*Galloway commits*

fpeaugh: He's only 3* and no one else wanted him.

Others: He had some good offers.

fpeaugh: No one elite.

Others: Izzo at MSU.

fpeaugh: Sure, they offered but they didn't actually want him.

 

[cryano]

fpeaugh negativity:

fpeaugh: No HS kids want to play for Miller.

*Galloway commits*

fpeaugh: He's only 3* and no one else wanted him.

Others: He had some good offers.

fpeaugh: No one elite.

Others: Izzo at MSU.

fpeaugh: Sure, they offered but they didn't actually want him.

If the kid played HS bb and had same skills in South Dakota - would you be as giddy about him?

Im glad Archie got a recrut...things were getting to seem really dry...

 

[TommyCracker]

If the kid played HS bb and had same skills in South Dakota - would you be as giddy about him?

Im glad Archie got a recrut...things were getting to seem really dry...

He actually played really well, like best on the team this past summer for Indy Elite which had Leal and 5 star Lander at the point.

Ave over 16ppg, shot over 60% from the field and hit around 42% of his 3's (21 makes over 17 games) for a team that I think won a national AAU title (but don't quote me on that). They did well as a team.

He's an Indiana kid, in the serious running for Mr. Basketball, coach's son, who is a four year recruit.

At worst we have a better offensive minded McRoberts.

At best I've seen Dane Fife comparisons as far as overall game and mental makeup.

He's a very solid pickup who should help us win and be a high character rep of the program.

Love it. Now F it, let's get Leal too while we're at it.

 

[Al Bino]

If the kid played HS bb and had same skills in South Dakota - would you be as giddy about him?

Im glad Archie got a recrut...things were getting to seem really dry...

Good grief, one of the kings of hyperbole with his usual whiny post.
Posted at 3 in the morning so you must lie awake at night thinking of outrageous things to post.

Who is "giddy"? People are happy to get a verbal from an intelligent hard nosed kid. Hoosier born and now Hoosier bound. A kid that is reminiscent of past Hoosier players that RMK built his program on.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

If the kid played HS bb and had same skills in South Dakota - would you be as giddy about him?

Im glad Archie got a recrut...things were getting to seem really dry...

It has nothing to do with where Galloway plays ball.

It has to do with the ridiculous statement that were made that Archie couldn't get anyone that had any other options, which anyone that follows recruiting knew was a asinine statement to make. Not only did we lead for Galloway at the time, but we're sitting good with Leal, who we made top two (who the he made another ridiculous claim about being excited about getting another 3 star, he's a four star by every major service out there), we're also sitting well with four stars Matt Cross and Zac Loveday. For 2021, we're in the top group for Lander and Trey Kaufman, both five stars i belive in the new update. If we pushed, we could be in on Luke Goode from Homestead and Blake Wesley from South Bend Riley. The 2021 class from Indiana is gonna be really, really good.

Archie can recruit.

 

[jet812]

Good grief, one of the kings of hyperbole with his usual whiny post.
Posted at 3 in the morning so you must lie awake at night thinking of outrageous things to post.

Who is "giddy"? People are happy to get a verbal from an intelligent hard nosed kid. Hoosier born and now Hoosier bound. A kid that is reminiscent of past Hoosier players that RMK built his program on.

Actually being up that late might give some insight into his mental condition. I know some people that are up all night a lot. Meth makes people do & say some crazy shit...

 

[PranksterMary]

Meth makes people do & say some crazy shit...

So does not knowing anything about the history of IU basketball as an elite program, as you and quite a few other posters aptly demonstrate on a regular basis.