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Minutes Breakdown

agree totally. Cupps is the only "true" PG we have behind Rice, imo. And we have a logjam of wings, and Newton hasn't played much meaningful ball for 2 years, so... But I agree, if he were to get minutes that would mean he's playing extremely well and earning minutes, so that is probably better for IU. But, I also know Cupps is going to work hard and if he focuses on his D, improving his shot selection and FG% a bit and finding more ways to score the ball, he could be extremely valuable too. So, a bet you can't really lose isn't terrible, is my thinking. But, c'mon, a donation in Cav's name to HH in honor of Romeo Langford?
Yeah...worth it.
 
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Here's what I got (not necessarily what I'd like, but what I think happens):

MR 30
Bako 28
Ballo 27
Rice 25
Carlyle 18
Gallo 18
Goode 15
Tucker 10
Cupps 9
Leal 7
Newton 7
Backup 5, 6
I believe Newton will surprise and play more.
 
Not sure I'd bet on it...but I'm more with your sentiment than I am Cavs. And I LOVE what I think Newton could be as a player! I just feel pretty strongly that Cupps will start the year as Rice's primary backup...so there are 10ish minutes in basically every game for Cupps. Add in foul trouble nights for Rice, blowouts, times when Woody wants Cupps defensive energy and spark... I think its very possible he ends up playing a fair bit again this year.

Newton is a wild card in a lot of different ways.
Galloway will be the first guard off the bench. He will play the point if needed or the 2. Cupps will play but not automatically when Rice is on the bench.
 
Galloway will be the first guard off the bench. He will play the point if needed or the 2. Cupps will play but not automatically when Rice is on the bench.
Carlyle started 14 PAC12 games at PG for Stanford. Not sure if Trey will be the better option next year.

Leadership, defense, play at break-neck speed, cause havoc, get into transition make a couple plays, make steal, hit an impossible spinning shot, and then sit .. that's his game,

Points produced in conference.. (Points + Assists)
Per game - Trey 12 .. Kanaan 12 Per 40 .- Kanaan 19 Trey 13

They both had high TO .. KCs were higher but he's far more of a threat. Plus the expected freshman to sophomore bump should happen... We may see KC start at 2 and then slide over when Rice goes out. Or Trey may just start .... It's nice to see so many options ..
 
I don't gamble much more than lunch, but I know you like to gamble. Not sure what a meaningful amount is for you: $300-400? Void if either player misses more than 3 consecutive games due to injury? Deal?
Whatever you want to do money wise. Doesn't have to be a lot of money. and sounds good about the 3 consecutive games.
 
Carlyle started 14 PAC12 games at PG for Stanford. Not sure if Trey will be the better option next year.

Leadership, defense, play at break-neck speed, cause havoc, get into transition make a couple plays, make steal, hit an impossible spinning shot, and then sit .. that's his game,

Points produced in conference.. (Points + Assists)
Per game - Trey 12 .. Kanaan 12 Per 40 .- Kanaan 19 Trey 13

They both had high TO .. KCs were higher but he's far more of a threat. Plus the expected freshman to sophomore bump should happen... We may see KC start at 2 and then slide over when Rice goes out. Or Trey may just start .... It's nice to see so many options ..
I still like seeing Gallo come off the bench creating havoc and turning a game on it's ear.
 
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Man...has anyone tried to lay out our lineups yet? Its astonishing how much more solid this roster is than anything Woody has had yet at IU.

Point Guard Spot (40 minutes)... Rice starts, Cupps backs up, Carlyle plays some, Gallo plays some
Two Guard Spot (40 minutes)...Carlyle starts, Gallo plays some, Newton if healthy plays some, Leal/Hemenway if signed play some
Three Spot (40 minutes)...Mgbako starts, but slides over to the 4 often, Tucker plays a lot, Goode needs some minutes here, Gallo could play here some, Newton could play here some
Four Spot (40 minutes)...Reneau starts, slides over to 5 some, Mgbako will get a lot of minutes here, Goode could get some time here alongside Tucker, bench guy we've yet to sign maybe too
Five Spot (40 minutes)...Ballo starts, Reneau plays here some, backup big hopefully here as well, maybe some 5 guard lineup stuff with Mgbako here

Rice...30 minutes (Reigning PAC 12 frosh of the year, helped lead WSU to NCAA tourney...I think he's our most important newcomer)
Mgbako...30 minutes (he'll be played in multiple positions, and should be All B10 level player)
Carlyle...25 minutes (I have a feeling this could push higher by years end, he's really good)
Reneau...25 minutes (This could be more if he improves his defense, and fouls less)
Ballo...23 minutes (he's been a 20 ish mpg game guy, we don't have a lot of depth in the front court though)
Tucker...20 minutes (highly rated freshman, good defender, versatile, should keep him on the court)
Galloway...20 minutes (can play 1-3 positions, he'll fill in enough lineup cracks to be on the court a fair bit)
Goode...17 minutes (Decent size, good shooter, can play 3/4 positions, so he'll get some extended minutes)

If my math is right, that would leave around 10 minutes of PT left. I do think Cupps will be a regular backup to Rice. So he'll play some in every game, I'd predict. Backup big? Hemenway? Newton? Leal?

Think about last years team, even Woody's first two teams. Cupps and Leal both did play a lot last year. Newton would have played a lot. A guy like Hemenway would have played a fair bit. If the backup big is solid, in any way, he would have played a fair bit. Its crazy how much more solid, and deep our roster is.
We are not playing 13 guys. Maybe 8 or 9 in conference. Leal, Newton, and Cupps will likely be on the bench once the conference rolls around. I have no idea how you think leal or newton will see minutes.
 
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I'm not sure I want you to win. Newton's potential impact is probably quite a lot higher than Cupps is. But I think Gabe has some baked in minutes that are his to lose. And there are so many unknowns with Newtons situation, AND he's competing against more people for minutes at the 2-3 spot. IF though, if he's fully healthy, and can forge a main rotation role for himself...that means he's taking minutes from multiple guys like Carlyle, Galloway, Tucker, Goode, Leal, even Mgbako to a small extent. That would have to imply some really cool things for Newton and for the team.
Newton would have to beat out like 5 guys to get minutes. Anyone who thinks he is going play much this year is delusional imo
 
Newton would have to beat out like 5 guys to get minutes. Anyone who thinks he is going play much this year is delusional imo
Woodson loves himself some big, physical guards that can lockdown out on the perimeter. If he's 100% healthy he'll get run early in the year with a chance to play his way into the rotation. Might come at the expense of a few less minutes for Tucker/Galloway, but if he can defend at a high level, he will play. I'm not so sure he's going to be 100% healthy.
 
We are not playing 13 guys. Maybe 8 or 9 in conference. Leal, Newton, and Cupps will likely be on the bench once the conference rolls around. I have no idea how you think leal or newton will see minutes.
Newton will play do not count him short.
 
I like this thread. I look at it in terms of rotations more than individual minutes which is harder to pin down.
I really think that Cupps and Newton could be a heckuva starting backcourt for us in 2 years. But this year once the cupcake part of the schedule is over there will be 8 players getting 20+ minutes. They aren't in that number.

There's the starting 5: Ballo, Reneau, Mgbako, Tucker, Rice

The line-up I think will at some point be our best line-up: Ballo, Mgbako, Tucker, Carlyle, Rice

Then the closers: Reneau, Mgbako, Goode, Galloway and Rice

There will be variations of course but anyone beyond that will fall outside the norm. To include whoever is the big we eventually add.

When deployed properly we have the best team of 8 in the country. There are a lot of cohesive fits that are modern, fast, perimeter defenders. We should be ecstatic right now.


"We need more shooters!!!!" NO we need to win the 3pt +/- defend the 3 at a high level, and improve the quality and frequency of 3pt attempts. We checked that box.

"Reneau has to start at the 4!!!" OK, but but Ill be shocked if the starting Frontline play more than 10mpg together by the start of conference play. There are numerous reasons why and very few why not and by the quality of the bigs we're linked to I think Woody gets it.

"Woody can't coach!!!!" Maybe, we'll know after this year. Baring a key prolonged series of injuries we should be a top ten team, win the Big Ten or BTT , and be an elite 8 team. We should be able to change the national narrative on our style not being a guard friendly perimeter style and be in great shape moving forward.

We still need a better tri-state recruiter than Walsh, or change our name to the Hurry' n Rosemonds.
 
I agree with your 8 - Ballo, Mgbako, Reneau, rice, Carlyle, Tucker, Gallo, Goode. If we get Hatton, all signs indicate we will, he will probably get 8-12 minutes. Newton is the wild card!
 
Mgbako , all big 10 player, I don't see it. if he thinks he a future NBA player he really needs to step up this year. He has a little bit of Langford in him the reputation has far outweighed the production. good spot up shooter hasn't really shown me much else in his game. he did start going to the basket towards the end of the year, but he lacks the elite athleticism to go by people and it hinders his defense also.
Sometimes strength can compensate to some degree for a lack of athleticism. I expect him to score more, in more different ways, and to improve significantly as a rebounder.
 
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If Newton is not a great outside shooter, I wonder what kind of pg skills he may have or can develop (in a hurry).
Might be more minutes for him if he concentrates on those aspects of his game. And could really help the team.
 
Indiana is 14-6 in games that Leal has played 15 minutes or more.

I don't know if he gets more minutes next year or fewer, but what I can say is that people are over estimating talent vs winning.
One thing that I think Moke Woodson recognizes is what winning basketball looks like. He will figure out which line ups give IU a better chance. My thing with Carlyle is that he just has not proven a single thing as a player. At this point there is no reason to say he is more likely to be on the floor at key times in games until we see how he plays at IU. Gallo and Leal understand what is needed, and if IU can use them to get the ball to guys who can score, then that's what will happen.
With Galloway it is a no brainer. He will play a lot and will be a huge part of whatever they accomplish next year.

But IU has been actually better with Leal in the game playing minutes, and it is because older guys generally make fewer mistakes and are stronger and can do what is expected more often.
 
I will bet anyone Newton plays more minutes than Cupps this year.
I agree that Newton has a big up-side though he hasn't seen the court yet. But Woody thinks the world of Cupps by playing so early in his career and giving his all. Woody will reward him.
 
Indiana is 14-6 in games that Leal has played 15 minutes or more.

I don't know if he gets more minutes next year or fewer, but what I can say is that people are over estimating talent vs winning.
One thing that I think Moke Woodson recognizes is what winning basketball looks like. He will figure out which line ups give IU a better chance. My thing with Carlyle is that he just has not proven a single thing as a player. At this point there is no reason to say he is more likely to be on the floor at key times in games until we see how he plays at IU. Gallo and Leal understand what is needed, and if IU can use them to get the ball to guys who can score, then that's what will happen.
With Galloway it is a no brainer. He will play a lot and will be a huge part of whatever they accomplish next year.

But IU has been actually better with Leal in the game playing minutes, and it is because older guys generally make fewer mistakes and are stronger and can do what is expected more often.
Silliest thing I've read on this website. Carlyle is a legitimate NBA prospect who had his ups and downs (on a bad team) just like every other true freshman in America. He's scored more than double Leal's career points and needed only 23 games to do so. He had scoring outputs of 31 and 28 against legitimate tournament teams last year. No clue how many minutes Carlyle plays next year, but whatever number it is, it'll be 3-4x more than whatever Leal plays. I wouldn't rule out Carlyle being the teams leading scorer next year, he's definitely the best 3 level scorer on the roster and I don't think it's particularly close.
 
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Silliest thing I've read on this website. Carlyle is a legitimate NBA prospect who had his ups and downs (on a bad team) just like every other true freshman in America. He's scored more than double Leal's career points and needed only 23 games to do so. He had scoring outputs of 31 and 28 against legitimate tournament teams last year. No clue how many minutes Carlyle plays next year, but whatever number it is, it'll be 3-4x more than whatever Leal plays. I wouldn't rule out Carlyle being the teams leading scorer next year, he's definitely the best 3 level scorer on the roster and I don't think it's particularly close.
Anyone that's questioning his potential impact is probably just a box score watcher. Everything you wrote is spot on, in my opinion.

The only pause I'd have is whether or not Woody will effectively utilize or maximize his skills and potential? I've been one of Woody's harshest critics with how he's chosen to run his offenses at IU...but even I have to admit he's been opening things up more each year he's been at IU. And this next roster is by far his most versatile, and has the most talent on the perimeter of any of his IU teams. So I'd be pretty surprised if guys like Carlyle and Rice aren't utilized pretty heavily.

He's more likely to be really good than not, in my opinion.
 
Carlyle started 14 PAC12 games at PG for Stanford. Not sure if Trey will be the better option next year.

Leadership, defense, play at break-neck speed, cause havoc, get into transition make a couple plays, make steal, hit an impossible spinning shot, and then sit .. that's his game,

Points produced in conference.. (Points + Assists)
Per game - Trey 12 .. Kanaan 12 Per 40 .- Kanaan 19 Trey 13


They both had high TO .. KCs were higher but he's far more of a threat. Plus the expected freshman to sophomore bump should happen... We may see KC start at 2 and then slide over when Rice goes out. Or Trey may just start .... It's nice to see so many options ..
Not sure about these numbers, in B1G play last year TG averaged 10.3 ppg and 5.25 apg. Almost 21 points responsible for in 33.6 mins, 25 per 40

KC averaged 12.5 ppg and 2.9 apg. Basically 18.3 responsible for in 26.6 mins or 27.5 per 40
 
Anyone that's questioning his potential impact is probably just a box score watcher. Everything you wrote is spot on, in my opinion.

The only pause I'd have is whether or not Woody will effectively utilize or maximize his skills and potential? I've been one of Woody's harshest critics with how he's chosen to run his offenses at IU...but even I have to admit he's been opening things up more each year he's been at IU. And this next roster is by far his most versatile, and has the most talent on the perimeter of any of his IU teams. So I'd be pretty surprised if guys like Carlyle and Rice aren't utilized pretty heavily.

He's more likely to be really good than not, in my opinion.
IIRC correctly he also played out of position. Though listed as a combo he's more a 2 than 1. When Bynam went down KC was put in the PG position.
 
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Not sure about these numbers, in B1G play last year TG averaged 10.3 ppg and 5.25 apg. Almost 21 points responsible for in 33.6 mins, 25 per 40

KC averaged 12.5 ppg and 2.9 apg. Basically 18.3 responsible for in 26.6 mins or 27.5 per 40
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kanaan-carlyle-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/trey-galloway-1.html

Trey in conference play. 244 PProd in 20 games 673 minutes = 14.5 per 40
Kanaan in conference play. 242 PProd in 19 games. 504 minutes. = 19.21 per 40

PProd is found in the advanced stats section at the bottom. My mistake was representing it as just points and assists ... it's more complicated than that .. . My bad.

The formula ..
PPr.png
 
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Silliest thing I've read on this website. Carlyle is a legitimate NBA prospect who had his ups and downs (on a bad team) just like every other true freshman in America. He's scored more than double Leal's career points and needed only 23 games to do so. He had scoring outputs of 31 and 28 against legitimate tournament teams last year. No clue how many minutes Carlyle plays next year, but whatever number it is, it'll be 3-4x more than whatever Leal plays. I wouldn't rule out Carlyle being the teams leading scorer next year, he's definitely the best 3 level scorer on the roster and I don't think it's particularly close.
In my post I point out that people are too focused on talent instead of winning and the first thing you do is say he is a "legitimate NBA prospect"

I'm hoping he's better than Bates and Gunn, OK? From what I've seen, he turns it over, shoots mediocre from 3, doesn't win, and doesn't defend ball screens very well, but he is a dynamic scorer and passer so he may help with what IU needs at guard offensively. Hopefully he can defend a bit by the time the season heats up.
Troy Williams had a bunch of turnovers and defensive lapses too but he was winning games so it's just tougher to tell what kind of impact Carlyle will have for IU.
But talent....I mean, UK has loads of talent every year and they just pushed out their coach. Talent is just a part of the equation.
 
In my post I point out that people are too focused on talent instead of winning and the first thing you do is say he is a "legitimate NBA prospect"

I'm hoping he's better than Bates and Gunn, OK? From what I've seen, he turns it over, shoots mediocre from 3, doesn't win, and doesn't defend ball screens very well, but he is a dynamic scorer and passer so he may help with what IU needs at guard offensively. Hopefully he can defend a bit by the time the season heats up.
Troy Williams had a bunch of turnovers and defensive lapses too but he was winning games so it's just tougher to tell what kind of impact Carlyle will have for IU.
But talent....I mean, UK has loads of talent every year and they just pushed out their coach. Talent is just a part of the equation.
Anthony Leal getting to play after sitting the bench for 3.5 years was a feel good subplot in a rather major disappointing season. You go 19-14 and don't make the tournament when guys like Anthony Leal are major "contributors" in your back court. That's the reality of the situation.

What you have described of Kannan Carlyle is the literally the standard ebbs and flows of a talented true freshman. Carlyle's ceiling is the Burj Khalifa compared to that of Anthony Leal and Carlyle has already produced on the court at levels Leal can only dream. Carlyle scored 28 points in his fourth ever career college basketball game in an upset win over Arizona. If we're playing Anthony Leal major minutes next year, it's because we've had a multitude of injuries again and aren't a threat to make the tournament or compete for a B10 championship.
 
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