Swedish Epidemiologist Johan Giesecke: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[mohoosier]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...secke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Another one to banter around. The cool thing about this one is the truth will be told by eventual antibody testing. I’m hearing early reports that back up exactly what this doc is saying in the interview - the denominator will mirror the flu, and in-turn the death rate. We’ll see, but it sounds like a credible theory.

 

[twenty02]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...secke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Another one to banter around. The cool thing about this one is the truth will be told by eventual antibody testing. I’m hearing early reports that back up exactly what this doc is saying in the interview - the denominator will mirror the flu, and in-turn the death rate. We’ll see, but it sounds like a credible theory.

In what single month period have 42k people died in the US?

The worst flu season over the last decade was 61k.... over an entire season.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

In what single month period have 42k people died in the US?

The worst flu season over the last decade was 61k.... over an entire season.

more extreme but the lethality is far from what people fear

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/pa..._content=2cd8db69-68e6-4bae-adc8-94202d49f978

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...secke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Another one to banter around. The cool thing about this one is the truth will be told by eventual antibody testing. I’m hearing early reports that back up exactly what this doc is saying in the interview - the denominator will mirror the flu, and in-turn the death rate. We’ll see, but it sounds like a credible theory.

Meanwhile the Swedes are dying at ten times the rate of their neighbors.

 

[twenty02]

more extreme but the lethality is far from what people fear

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/patient-care/reports-suggest-many-have-had-coronavirus-no-symptoms?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&utm_term=modern healthcare&utm_content=2cd8db69-68e6-4bae-adc8-94202d49f978

Everyone knows that the reported case numbers are wildly low.... but comparisons to the annual flu are also nonsense. Just the amount of deaths alone should prove that..... hell, the situation in northern Italy (or NYC) alone should show that.

Only a pure moron would attempt to compare it to the flu. It's either 1) much more deadly or 2) much more contagious.... or most likely some combination.

 

[sglowrider]

Everyone knows that the reported case numbers are wildly low.... but comparisons to the annual flu are also nonsense. Just the amount of deaths alone should prove that..... hell, the situation in northern Italy (or NYC) alone should show that.

Only a pure moron would attempt to compare it to the flu. It's either 1) much more deadly or 2) much more contagious.... or most likely some combination.

And yet, here we are...

 

[HillzHoozier]

In what single month period have 42k people died in the US?

The worst flu season over the last decade was 61k.... over an entire season.

March 2019, 253,000 American people died of various causes.

 

[cosmickid]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...secke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html

Another one to banter around. The cool thing about this one is the truth will be told by eventual antibody testing. I’m hearing early reports that back up exactly what this doc is saying in the interview - the denominator will mirror the flu, and in-turn the death rate. We’ll see, but it sounds like a credible theory.

Denmark provides the opposite experience. They were the first European country (aside from Italy) to institute a lockdown. They only had about 500 cases, with zero fatalities. They went into lockdown on March 11 reopened schools last week and further emerged this week...

So compare the situation in Denmark with that of the UK. On March 11, Denmark had 514 cases and the UK had 456. The UK instituted their lockdown on March 23, about 12 days later. Was that delay significant- judge for yourself...

The UK has gone from 456 cases on March 11 to 120,000 cases and 16,000 deaths. Denmark has gone from having 514 cases to 7711 cases and 355 deaths. Sweden, which did not impose a lockdown has had 13,216 cases and 1400 deaths.

Since Sweden has about double the population of Denmark, then the virtual doubling of cases makes the total cases close to a wash between the two. But Sweden has more than 4X the number of fatalities, which may indicate that Denmark's early lockdown may have significantly saved lives.

And the early intervention in Denmark has undoubtedly allowed them to "flatten the curve"...

"Meanwhile, the country’s transmission rate has fallen to less than one new infection per case. Hospitals are yet to be inundated or overrun and are beginning to reopen to non-critical patients suffering from other ailments. The infection curve has been flattened and the state, it seems, has held firm in the face of a virus that has seen powerful nations around the world struggle."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...cases-deaths-news-flatten-curve-a9465436.html

 

[82hoosier]

Sweden has nowhere near the concentrated population centers or the reliance on public transportation that the US has. These things matter.

 

[cosmickid]

March 2019, 253,000 American people died of various causes.

Seems kind of ironic for you, in particular, to seek out and post this. Just a few hours ago you were railing about the deception employed by the CCP/WHO and their unwillingness to be forthright and warn the world of what we faced.

Now you're apparently seeking out confirmation bias articles to downplay the actual degree of the tragedy that according to you is the fault of China. This strikes me as some Trumpian-level disingenuous diversionary tactics at play... It's like you want to provide cover for Trump against claims he ignored warnings, while at the same time seeking to also isolate him from any blame that he might incur from re-opening the country too quickly...

Are you related to Trump? Maybe you should apply for Kayleigh Mcenany's job- White House Bullshit artist...

 

[TommyCracker]

March 2019, 253,000 American people died of various causes.

How many deaths are preventable by a simple change in behavior? This one is.

When a person gets cancer sure there are reckless things they could do like don't suntan, don't smoke or try to stay away from massive radiation but...cancer isn't contagious nor is it easy to avoid like Corona virus.

Also transactional arguments can be made for anything.

If I wanted to I could make transactional arguments against the fire department (how many houses really burn down, 1 out of 4000? Plus there is insurance. More homes are destroyed by tornadoes than fire.

How about hospice? Data shows that 100% of people who go into hospice will die. Why are we waisting money and effort on those people. Just let them die and save the money.

Hell how about hospitals. We're all going to die eventually so what's the point of keeping people alive. How much wasted money is used on hospitals and health care in general?

But my point is, how many causes of death are manageable like covid?

There lies the rub.

 

[bawlmer]

March 2019, 253,000 American people died of various causes.

So by comparison, in April, 1 in every 5 US death will be from covid.

 

[twenty02]

March 2019, 253,000 American people died of various causes.

Deaths are up 300% over "normal" rates in NYC.

These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.​

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

[mcmurtry66]

Deaths are up 300% over "normal" rates in NYC.

These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.​

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

this entire thread is why i'm interested to watch what plays out in georgia: rural state with a massive city that is "opening up" while fully cognizant of the virus and will presumably have citizens washing their hands, being more cautious, thrown in with idiots who will do none of that.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

The UK has gone from 456 cases on March 11 to 120,000 cases and 16,000 deaths. Denmark has gone from having 514 cases to 7711 cases and 355 deaths. Sweden, which did not impose a lockdown has had 13,216 cases and 1400 deaths.

Please provide population-based statistics. My guess is the data will still show your point, but it would be far more useful.

 

[outside shooter]

If you can do widespread testing along with extremely thorough contact tracings of all positives, then I'd imagine that you could avert a widespread lockdown.

The USA cannot meet either of those conditions.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

If you can do widespread test along with extremely thorough contact tracings of all positives, then I'd imagine that you could avert a widespread lockdown.

The USA cannot meet either of those conditions.

At what size does it become feasible? I'd have to imagine that would be a challenge for larger EU countries as well. It seems unfathomable for large population countries, particularly in widespread geographic areas (Russia, US, Brazil, Canada).

 

[outside shooter]

At what size does it become feasible? I'd have to imagine that would be a challenge for larger EU countries as well. It seems unfathomable for large population countries, particularly in widespread geographic areas (Russia, US, Brazil, Canada).

Didn't Germany do it? It is fairly spread out, compared to Taiwan and South Korea anyway.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Seems kind of ironic for you, in particular, to seek out and post this. Just a few hours ago you were railing about the deception employed by the CCP/WHO and their unwillingness to be forthright and warn the world of what we faced.

Now you're apparently seeking out confirmation bias articles to downplay the actual degree of the tragedy that according to you is the fault of China. This strikes me as some Trumpian-level disingenuous diversionary tactics at play... It's like you want to provide cover for Trump against claims he ignored warnings, while at the same time seeking to also isolate him from any blame that he might incur from re-opening the country too quickly...

Are you related to Trump? Maybe you should apply for Kayleigh Mcenany's job- White House Bullshit artist...

Somewhere there is a disconnect from "this is all China's fault, they lied, this is much worse than they let on" to "wow, look at the sheer number of people who have already had it, this clearly is no worse than the flu".

As one who has agreed China has lied and it is bad, I am at least consistent. Maybe the people who have been saying China lied and it isn't bad at all can explain how that makes sense?

 

[HillzHoozier]

Deaths are up 300% over "normal" rates in NYC.

These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.​

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Well, that is alarming on its face. I'd like to see the official numbers when they are available to satisfy my own curiosity. I found this while digging around this morning. Sounds familiar, except there was no global shutdown.

The Hong Kong Fluey:

The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift.​

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Well, that is alarming on its face. I'd like to see the official numbers when they are available to satisfy my own curiosity. I found this while digging around this morning. Sounds familiar, except there was no global shutdown.

The Hong Kong Fluey:

The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift.​

What's the point?

 

[thezinfan1]

March 2019, 253,000 American people died of various causes.

You keep cherry picking March numbers, lol. Run the numbers against partial April. Oh that's right, you wont.

 

[ButHerEmails]

What's the point?

I’ll listen to comparisons with flu deaths when during the next flu season we shut down dining-in for restaurants and bars, close gyms, close movies theaters and close salons, limit the number of people who can be in grocery or department stores and issue stay-at-home orders in some states. If we do all that during the next US flu season I will be anxious to compare the numbers.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I’ll listen to comparisons with flu deaths when during the next flu season we shut down dining-in for restaurants and bars, close gyms, close movies theaters and close salons, limit the number of people who can be in grocery or department stores and issue stay-at-home orders in some states. If we do all that during the next US flu season I will be anxious to compare the numbers.

That is what people are losing sight of. Indiana shut down 5 weeks ago. We had 61 die yesterday. The vast majority of them would have been infected with the stay at home orders under effect. Imagine the number if people were out hanging out together at the gym, movie, restaurant.

 

[Cortez88]

That is what people are losing sight of. Indiana shut down 5 weeks ago. We had 61 die yesterday. The vast majority of them would have been infected with the stay at home orders under effect. Imagine the number if people were out hanging out together at the gym, movie, restaurant.

People are being intellectually dishonest. They know the truth but it’s a narrative.

 

[HillzHoozier]

You keep cherry picking March numbers, lol. Run the numbers against partial April. Oh that's right, you wont.

They're not out yet. Models and projections don't tell the particular story I'm interested in.

 

[HillzHoozier]

What's the point?

Well it was a response to a post which said the deadliest flu season killed 61k. Hong Kong Flu killed 100k.

 

[ButHerEmails]

People are being intellectually dishonest. They know the truth but it’s a narrative.

I like it when idiots post the number of deaths in car accidents as a response to COVID deaths.

 

[cosmickid]

Please provide population-based statistics. My guess is the data will still show your point, but it would be far more useful.

Not really sure what you mean- I just quoted from the article. I did look up the population for Denmark (about 5 MIL) and for Sweden (about 10 MIL) and noted that while the case amounts were roughly double between the two, the fatalities in Sweden were about 4X those of Denmark.

 

[thezinfan1]

[

They're not out yet. Models and projections don't tell the particular story I'm interested in.

Facts also don't tell the story you are interested in.

 

[HillzHoozier]

[

Facts also don't tell the story you are interested in.

I'm hoping that they will when they are published. Either way, the optometry practice my wife works for opens back up on May 4. It could mean the end is near...

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Not really sure what you mean- I just quoted from the article. I did look up the population for Denmark (about 5 MIL) and for Sweden (about 10 MIL) and noted that while the case amounts were roughly double between the two, the fatalities in Sweden were about 4X those of Denmark.

Thanks, that is what I was looking for. Helps put things into perspective (maybe I'm a comparison nut/junkie).

 

[cosmickid]

Well, that is alarming on its face. I'd like to see the official numbers when they are available to satisfy my own curiosity. I found this while digging around this morning. Sounds familiar, except there was no global shutdown.

The Hong Kong Fluey:

The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift.​

I don't see these continual references to the "seasonal flu" as helpful, based on my own experience...I'm 65 yrs old, experience heart failure to the point where I have an ICD implanted and 3 or 4 yrs ago was medically approved for disability. I went back to work because I couldn't really support the lifestyle I had grown accustomed to on what I qualified for on disability...

In other words, I fit pretty distinctly into the "high risk" category for both COVID and "the flu"... Despite that, I rarely get a flu shot, have never gotten 1 two years in a row, and usually only get one if it starts to sound like it's a more ramped up season than normal. I was going to get one this season because there was supposed to be a more virulent strain of pneumonia associated with the expected version, but when I went to Kroger I was informed that it was only available for those 65 and older. Since I was still 64 and wouldn't qualify till April they couldn't give it to me, and that was in late Jan/early Feb...

I suspect it had to do with medicare, and decided I'd just wait till April to see if I felt it was necessary. In the meantime, we started seeing images and hearing horror stories from Italy, and for me, that is when COVID became real on a personal level. I never did get the flu shot, and I haven't experienced any symptoms for the virus. But if a vaccine became available today I'd be all masked up in line to get mine. THAT to me is the difference between "the flu" and COVID...

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Well it was a response to a post which said the deadliest flu season killed 61k. Hong Kong Flu killed 100k.

No, it wasn't, and still, what's your point?

 

[IUclover]

I'm hoping that they will when they are published. Either way, the optometry practice my wife works for opens back up on May 4. It could mean the end is near...

My prescription has expired but I don't plan on going to an optometrist for several months or more. And is there an optometrist lobby that has made it so that we have to get an annual prescription in order to buy new contacts? Maybe it's another law or something but every year seems a bit too much.

 

[hoosboot]

I don't see these continual references to the "seasonal flu" as helpful, based on my own experience...I'm 65 yrs old, experience heart failure to the point where I have an ICD implanted and 3 or 4 yrs ago was medically approved for disability. I went back to work because I couldn't really support the lifestyle I had grown accustomed to on what I qualified for on disability...

In other words, I fit pretty distinctly into the "high risk" category for both COVID and "the flu"... Despite that, I rarely get a flu shot, have never gotten 1 two years in a row, and usually only get one if it starts to sound like it's a more ramped up season than normal. I was going to get one this season because there was supposed to be a more virulent strain of pneumonia associated with the expected version, but when I went to Kroger I was informed that it was only available for those 65 and older. Since I was still 64 and wouldn't qualify till April they couldn't give it to me, and that was in late Jan/early Feb...

I suspect it had to do with medicare, and decided I'd just wait till April to see if I felt it was necessary. In the meantime, we started seeing images and hearing horror stories from Italy, and for me, that is when COVID became real on a personal level. I never did get the flu shot, and I haven't experienced any symptoms for the virus. But if a vaccine became available today I'd be all masked up in line to get mine. THAT to me is the difference between "the flu" and COVID...

Apropos of nothing, I found this amusing:



Terrific performance.

 

[HillzHoozier]

No, it wasn't, and still, what's your point?

Ok, goat. It was pertinent to a previous post in the exchange.. The point is that in the 1968 season the new flu strain was a pandemic that killed 100k Americans, which was especially deadly for those 65 and up, but there was no global shutdown.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Ok, goat. It was pertinent to a previous post in the exchange.. The point is that in the 1968 season the new flu strain was a pandemic that killed 100k Americans, which was especially deadly for those 65 and up, but there was no global shutdown.

You said that already. What's. The. Point.

 

[Zizkov]

Sweden is fairing far worse than all of their neighbors and if they are banking on herd immunity to take over then they might be in for a big surprise. S Korea have seen 100s of people with positive tests after they were considered fully recovered with negative tests.

Could be testing issues or could be that immunity isn't being built as many hope.

I wouldn't be surprised to see thing tighten up a bit there, people are already pretty much staying home without the orders. The fact that over half of Swedish households are single person makes social distancing a built in commodity and they are still doing poorly.

 

[ButHerEmails]

You said that already. What's. The. Point.

To. pwn. You. Overreacting. Libs.