Swedish Epidemiologist Johan Giesecke: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[Bill4411]

I just noticed that the death rate in the US connected with the number of cases diagnosed stands at 5.5%. If it tracks like Italy look for that percentage to go up even more..

This is definitely not the flu

 

[Daydreamer]

You said that already. What's. The. Point.

You know the point... there was no shelter in place strategy then and 100k died. This time we’re doing and only 45k have died. That clearly proves that we didn’t need to shelter in place this time.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Deaths are up 300% over "normal" rates in NYC.

These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.​

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

How many people do you think actually have/had it in NYC metro? A new piece from LA:

Study that tested 863 adults for antibodies to COVID-19 suggests it's infected more people in L.A. County than the official numbers show.

With the preliminary results released today, researchers estimate that somewhere between 220,000 and 440,000 Angelenos have already been infected. That's a lot more than the 13,816 cases confirmed so far.

With the substantially higher estimate of cases, that suggests the mortality rate for the county is much lower than the current 4.4%, said L.A. County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer. She pegged it at closer to .1% or .2%.

L.A. County is currently averaging about 50 COVID-19 deaths a day, according to the Department of Public Health's Chief Science Officer, Dr. Paul Simon. He noted that COVID-19 is currently killing more people in the county than any other cause, including coronary heart disease.

And while an estimated mortality rate of .1% or .2% would get COVID-19 closer to the season flu's rate, researchers cautioned that's not the whole picture.

"For the flu, maybe deaths are spread over six to eight months," said lead investigator Dr. Neeraj Sood, professor & senior fellow at USC's Price School for Public Policy. "But for COVID, [they] might be more concentrated over a span of two months or one month, which could overrun the health care system — and that in turn could change the fatality rate."

To be clear, it is clearly having a major impact b/c of the rapid impact and concentrated death toll as the quote above points out. However, it seems like COVID infections are far more frequent than most realize. The question becomes, if things are reopened in stages (the hope vs. what Georgia's gov is attempting), will we be able to disperse the infections enough to not require additional lockdowns?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I just noticed that the death rate in the US connected with the number of cases diagnosed stands at 5.5%. If it tracks like Italy look for that percentage to go up even more..

This is definitely not the flu

Don't be naive, it is nowhere near that high, though materially higher and more dangerous than the flu. See my post below re: LA study.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I don't see these continual references to the "seasonal flu" as helpful, based on my own experience...I'm 65 yrs old, experience heart failure to the point where I have an ICD implanted and 3 or 4 yrs ago was medically approved for disability. I went back to work because I couldn't really support the lifestyle I had grown accustomed to on what I qualified for on disability...

In other words, I fit pretty distinctly into the "high risk" category for both COVID and "the flu"... Despite that, I rarely get a flu shot, have never gotten 1 two years in a row, and usually only get one if it starts to sound like it's a more ramped up season than normal. I was going to get one this season because there was supposed to be a more virulent strain of pneumonia associated with the expected version, but when I went to Kroger I was informed that it was only available for those 65 and older. Since I was still 64 and wouldn't qualify till April they couldn't give it to me, and that was in late Jan/early Feb...

I suspect it had to do with medicare, and decided I'd just wait till April to see if I felt it was necessary. In the meantime, we started seeing images and hearing horror stories from Italy, and for me, that is when COVID became real on a personal level. I never did get the flu shot, and I haven't experienced any symptoms for the virus. But if a vaccine became available today I'd be all masked up in line to get mine. THAT to me is the difference between "the flu" and COVID...

I'm not familiar with the HK Flu incident, but that doesn't sound anything like a "seasonal" variety.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

How many people do you think actually have/had it in NYC metro? A new piece from LA:

Study that tested 863 adults for antibodies to COVID-19 suggests it's infected more people in L.A. County than the official numbers show.

With the preliminary results released today, researchers estimate that somewhere between 220,000 and 440,000 Angelenos have already been infected. That's a lot more than the 13,816 cases confirmed so far.

With the substantially higher estimate of cases, that suggests the mortality rate for the county is much lower than the current 4.4%, said L.A. County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer. She pegged it at closer to .1% or .2%.

L.A. County is currently averaging about 50 COVID-19 deaths a day, according to the Department of Public Health's Chief Science Officer, Dr. Paul Simon. He noted that COVID-19 is currently killing more people in the county than any other cause, including coronary heart disease.

And while an estimated mortality rate of .1% or .2% would get COVID-19 closer to the season flu's rate, researchers cautioned that's not the whole picture.

"For the flu, maybe deaths are spread over six to eight months," said lead investigator Dr. Neeraj Sood, professor & senior fellow at USC's Price School for Public Policy. "But for COVID, [they] might be more concentrated over a span of two months or one month, which could overrun the health care system — and that in turn could change the fatality rate."

To be clear, it is clearly having a major impact b/c of the rapid impact and concentrated death toll as the quote above points out. However, it seems like COVID infections are far more frequent than most realize. The question becomes, if things are reopened in stages (the hope vs. what Georgia's gov is attempting), will we be able to disperse the infections enough to not require additional lockdowns?

There is still much we do not know. On these studies, I have seen debates on how the false positive rate is handled. Better kid are coming that will help.

Beyond that, we do not k,or how much immunity is gained by having had the disease. It appears there are two strains, how much immunity does strain A give to strain B? One of the strains may be more deadly than the other, which is more rampant where?

I saw the CDC head today suggested this is likely to be worse. Is he taking into account these studoes? Is the disease likely to mutate before fall, perhaps damaging immunity?

If the new numbers are accurate, it may not be more deadly than the flu but FAR, FAR more infectious.

In our modern world, we do not like waiting for answers. This bug is excelling at making us wait.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

There is still much we do not know. On these studies, I have seen debates on how the false positive rate is handled. Better kid are coming that will help.

Beyond that, we do not k,or how much immunity is gained by having had the disease. It appears there are two strains, how much immunity does strain A give to strain B? One of the strains may be more deadly than the other, which is more rampant where?

I saw the CDC head today suggested this is likely to be worse. Is he taking into account these studoes? Is the disease likely to mutate before fall, perhaps damaging immunity?

If the new numbers are accurate, it may not be more deadly than the flu but FAR, FAR more infectious.

In our modern world, we do not like waiting for answers. This bug is excelling at making us wait.

Apparently it is far beyond two strains.

https://www.jpost.com/health-scienc...t-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333

Li's team analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou, where there have been 1,264 reported cases, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

More than 30 different mutations were detected, of which 19 were previously undiscovered.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li wrote in the paper.

The team discovered that some of the mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, the South China Morning Post reported. Spike protein is the protein that the coronavirus uses to attach itself to human cells.
....
Li 's team infected cells with COVID-19 strains carrying different mutations, of which the most aggressive strains were found to generate as much as 270 times as much viral load as the weakest strains. The aggressive strains also killed the human cells the fastest.
....
“Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take the impact of these accumulating mutations into account to avoid potential pitfalls,” the scientists said.

 

[twenty02]

How many people do you think actually have/had it in NYC metro? A new piece from LA:

Study that tested 863 adults for antibodies to COVID-19 suggests it's infected more people in L.A. County than the official numbers show.

With the preliminary results released today, researchers estimate that somewhere between 220,000 and 440,000 Angelenos have already been infected. That's a lot more than the 13,816 cases confirmed so far.

With the substantially higher estimate of cases, that suggests the mortality rate for the county is much lower than the current 4.4%, said L.A. County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer. She pegged it at closer to .1% or .2%.

L.A. County is currently averaging about 50 COVID-19 deaths a day, according to the Department of Public Health's Chief Science Officer, Dr. Paul Simon. He noted that COVID-19 is currently killing more people in the county than any other cause, including coronary heart disease.

And while an estimated mortality rate of .1% or .2% would get COVID-19 closer to the season flu's rate, researchers cautioned that's not the whole picture.

"For the flu, maybe deaths are spread over six to eight months," said lead investigator Dr. Neeraj Sood, professor & senior fellow at USC's Price School for Public Policy. "But for COVID, [they] might be more concentrated over a span of two months or one month, which could overrun the health care system — and that in turn could change the fatality rate."

To be clear, it is clearly having a major impact b/c of the rapid impact and concentrated death toll as the quote above points out. However, it seems like COVID infections are far more frequent than most realize. The question becomes, if things are reopened in stages (the hope vs. what Georgia's gov is attempting), will we be able to disperse the infections enough to not require additional lockdowns?

We can make guesses..... but that's all they are.

We do know that deaths are up in a statistically significant way... in areas all over the globe. As I mentioned yesterday.... that is the result from either a high mortality rate.... or a very contagious virus..... or some combo.

We do know this is especially deadly to elderly people... which makes sense..... being a novel virus ( Old folks have some natural immunity to influenza, being exposed to it their entire life).

Seems to me we will open back up to a degree.... but with all these distancing protocols. Normal isn't coming back.

Remote work will be encouraged where possible for a long while. From my discussions with others that work for large orgs in jobs that are suitable for remote work... there is no expectation of returning for months. One fairly senior Lilly employee told me they don't expect to EVER go back into work like they did before (for their business area).... possibly going to a scenario of only 1 day a week in office. I don't expect to return to the office until July at earliest.

I've mentioned before.... and my wife is from the corporate insurance world, so we've discussed this quite a bit... liability concerns are front and center for employers when it comes to bringing people back to work. You bring someone back, they get sick and die.... and you haven't followed protocols to the nth degree.... you're gonna be up to your neck in lawsuits. I can just imagine the plaintiff firms lined up for those 600+ Smithfield workers that have tested positive in SD, for example. They could probably defend it as general ignorance to a new pandemic situation.... but that defense doesn't fly for the employer going forward.

It's an economic nightmare that I don't think has been fully appreciated. Employers are gonna move slow.... consumers are going to return very slow, etc...


Toss the V shaped recovery talk into the garbage.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

How many people do you think actually have/had it in NYC metro? A new piece from LA:

Study that tested 863 adults for antibodies to COVID-19 suggests it's infected more people in L.A. County than the official numbers show.

With the preliminary results released today, researchers estimate that somewhere between 220,000 and 440,000 Angelenos have already been infected. That's a lot more than the 13,816 cases confirmed so far.

With the substantially higher estimate of cases, that suggests the mortality rate for the county is much lower than the current 4.4%, said L.A. County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer. She pegged it at closer to .1% or .2%.

L.A. County is currently averaging about 50 COVID-19 deaths a day, according to the Department of Public Health's Chief Science Officer, Dr. Paul Simon. He noted that COVID-19 is currently killing more people in the county than any other cause, including coronary heart disease.

And while an estimated mortality rate of .1% or .2% would get COVID-19 closer to the season flu's rate, researchers cautioned that's not the whole picture.

"For the flu, maybe deaths are spread over six to eight months," said lead investigator Dr. Neeraj Sood, professor & senior fellow at USC's Price School for Public Policy. "But for COVID, [they] might be more concentrated over a span of two months or one month, which could overrun the health care system — and that in turn could change the fatality rate."

To be clear, it is clearly having a major impact b/c of the rapid impact and concentrated death toll as the quote above points out. However, it seems like COVID infections are far more frequent than most realize. The question becomes, if things are reopened in stages (the hope vs. what Georgia's gov is attempting), will we be able to disperse the infections enough to not require additional lockdowns?

The Mass. study linked here yesterday suggests that the fatality rate is .3% minimum (i.e., it doesn't count people who are already infected and are about to die). That's still pretty serious.

Hell, even .1% is pretty serious, for a disease that spreads so easily.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/