Some troubling signs for Trump in Pennsylvania

[Bowlmania]

Huge numbers of new voters are casting ballots in Pennsylvania. Over 100,000 new voters have already cast ballots there, with more to come. Biden won PA in 2020 by 80,555 votes.

Obviously it's impossible to know how these new voters are voting, but it's almost certainly good news for Harris. More new voters in PA are registered Dems than Pubs. Among the new male voters, they're slightly more likely to be Dems than Pubs. Among new female voters, Dems outnumber Pubs 2-1.

Charlie Kirk is pleading with male Republicans in PA to vote. He knows Trump's in trouble.

Perhaps even more telling, Trump -- - always the strategic bad faith actor - - is already falsely claiming that Pennsylvania is "cheating big."

 

[cosmickid]

Huge numbers of new voters are casting ballots in Pennsylvania. Over 100,000 new voters have already cast ballots there, with more to come. Biden won PA in 2020 by 80,555 votes.

Obviously it's impossible to know how these new voters are voting, but it's almost certainly good news for Harris. More new voters in PA are registered Dems than Pubs. Among the new male voters, they're slightly more likely to be Dems than Pubs. Among new female voters, Dems outnumber Pubs 2-1.

Charlie Kirk is pleading with male Republicans in PA to vote. He knows Trump's in trouble.

Perhaps even more telling, Trump -- - always the strategic bad faith actor - - is already falsely claiming that Pennsylvania is "cheating big."

I don't think that this stat can be overstated. The Pubs are not drawing "new voters" in PA. Of the returned Pub ballots, 47% came from people who voted on election day in 2020. 46% have come from people who voted by mail in 2020. So basically 93% of returned ballots from registered GOP voters come from 2020 voters... That means the Pubs early vote totals are only made up of around 7% of "new voters"...

By contrast the registered Dems who have returned mail ballots only include 12% 2020 ED voters.

And if you dig down into that 46% of returned registered GOP ballots that voted by mail in 2020,another negative emerges for Trump. Republicans who chose to vote by mail in 2020 were bucking the party's position. And they overwhelmingly voted for Biden, not Trump. So what % of the returned registered "Republican" votes are actually Harris voters? And that's not even counting the UA voters who lean Dem and skew younger and female.

 

[Bowlmania]

I don't think that this stat can be overstated. The Pubs are not drawing "new voters" in PA. Of the returned Pub ballots, 47% came from people who voted on election day in 2020. 46% have come from people who voted by mail in 2020. So basically 93% of returned ballots from registered GOP voters come from 2020 voters... That means the Pubs early vote totals are only made up of around 7% of "new voters"...

By contrast the registered Dems who have returned mail ballots only include 12% 2020 ED voters.

And if you dig down into that 46% of returned registered GOP ballots that voted by mail in 2020,another negative emerges for Trump. Republicans who chose to vote by mail in 2020 were bucking the party's position. And they overwhelmingly voted for Biden, not Trump. So what % of the returned registered "Republican" votes are actually Harris voters? And that's not even counting the UA voters who lean Dem and skew younger and female.

That's good info. My post just deals with raw numbers.