So who is proven right on election night?

[bailey777]

Not sure how you can claim early voting means nothing, or else predict how motivated people who say they are highly motivated to vote on Tues are to actually go out and do so depending on weather, lines etc... And at this point are the people who are "undecided" going to break a specific direction AND going to reach a definite decision which motivates them to go out and vote? Or are they just going to remain "undecided" and end up not voting?

But regardless, the point he makes is that Dem early vote in key areas in 2022, is ahead of where it was at the same point in both 2018 and 2020, which are the two most recent record setting turnout elections where Dem early voting was the key. I'm not saying he's right, because I don't know.

But an obvious example is PA, where there are more registered Dems than Pubs. The Pubs had about a 32,000 gain from party switchers, but that was basically negated by Dems having a 30,000 advantage among first time voters who registered. But a key demographic this year may be 18-29 yr olds, who are voting early at a much higher rate in 2022,than they did in either 2018 or 2020.

In 2018 there were about 18,500 early voters of that demographic, and in 2020 it was 70,000. But it's already at 80,000+ this year, and while the Dem share of those early youth voters was 61% in 2018, it's basically an 80-15% Dem lead with nearly 3x as many votes cast in 2022 early voting.

More young voters headed to Pennsylvania polls early in 2022 than in 2018

Tens of thousands more young voters in Pennsylvania are voting early this year compared to the 2018 midterm elections, according to an online tracker of early voting. TargetEarly, a dashboard…

thehill.com

Keep in mind that Fetterman has run a very savy social media campaign, which has likely driven young Dems in PA to be more engaged than normal. And Oz is just not very likeable, even among Pubs who plan to vote for him...

So basically I am putting on public record a counterpoint, so that if things aren't as wonderful for the GOP on Tues as you predict, you can't come on here and whine about stolen elections. Of course you can and will, but rationale folks will have this historical record to refer back to. If the Senate doesn't end up with people like Masters, Oz and Herschel all winning then it's because the polls are off and they are relying on measuring people who could vote, rather than people who already have voted...

Depends which polls you are looking at. The polls I look at I do not believe are way off I look at ones with great track records and those polls have Walker and Oz winning. RCP started an accountability report to rate pollsters. Fox news and you gov were both ranked right in the botton five out of like 25. Trafalgar and Emerson in the top five. Anyone can put out a poll but fox is beyond awful at polling I have not paid attention to a fox poll in ten years.

 

[bailey777]

That doesn't even make sense, as OH is a red-tinged purple state and PA has about 500,000 more registered Dems than Pubs. Oz will have to count on split tickets among pubs voting for Schapiro, while DeWine will win in a walk and likely pull Vance along. Mastriano will drag Oz down- it's totally the opposite situation from Ohio...

The early vote numbers look very good for Dems in OH, compared to 2018. In 2018 early voting resulted in a 44-42 GOP lead. Sherrod Brown won the seat in an upset, while the Pubs captured the Governorship.

But in 2022 the early vote totals in OH are 44-39 Dems, so instead of a lead Vance is actually trailing heading into election day. The polls don't reflect that, but I'm telling you polls have limits and basically measure the people who intend to vote (who haven't yet) while actual turnout numbers tell the story of where the actual election stands. And Ryan is a popular guy with name recognition that some people registered as Republicans will vote for.

If Vance wins be less than 7 points I will pat you on the back. I predict he wins in a route.

 

[Spartans9312]

3rd world countries like Brazil can all count their votes on election night. Everyone knows what they're doing. They're aiming for the 2nd Civil War.

View embedded media

All states should count ballots like Florida does

 

[Spartans9312]

Republicans are blowing the doors off in early FL Election Day numbers.

It’s almost as if governing competently matters to voter

 

[Univee2]

I think Vance will win by 9-12 point.

Only if DeWine wins the governor race by 18-24 points. Vance will win by about half that. Ryan was exposed at the end. Old-line crazy liberal despite his lies throughout the campaign.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Republicans are blowing the doors off in early FL Election Day numbers.

It’s almost as if governing competently matters to voter

You mean more mask mandates and the Yacht club suit didn't seal it for Crist?

 

[cosmickid]

EDIA=twitter]1587927573572784128[/MEDIA]


While some people claim that it leads to a cannibalization of election day turnout, he points out that the Dems have concentrated their efforts to get the most reliable of Dem voters to vote early. By doing so, they are now able to concentrate on motivating lower propensity voters to the polls, instead of having to extend time and energy to turning out the regular Dem voters in the next few days and on election day...

Depends which polls you are looking at. The polls I look at I do not believe are way off I look at ones with great track records and those polls have Walker and Oz winning. RCP started an accountability report to rate pollsters. Fox news and you gov were both ranked right in the botton five out of like 25. Trafalgar and Emerson in the top five. Anyone can put out a poll but fox is beyond awful at polling I have not paid attention to a fox poll in ten years.

About those polls that you trust...

As I told you earlier, the myth of Trafalgar's excellence was developed during 2016 campaign, mainly because they figured out that Trump voters were playing low key in MI,WI and PA. But they never really approached that level of excellence subsequently. They had Trump winning in 2020, they had Newsom losing the runoff, and they were off on all of the post Dobbs races this summer.

I also told you all along that the "likely voter" model that they were using was obsolete, because so many pro-choice voters who had never voted before registered after the Dobbs decision. And the abortion issue and young voters (which Trafalgar had no clue about) were both huge in PA.

 

[cosmickid]

Running on 01/06, abortion, CRT, etc was never going to be a winning strategey when the economy and inflation are the number one issues. No matter how bad dems wanted 01/06 to be the main issues it just is not for most voters and never will be.

Hmmm...

 

[cosmickid]

The Young Turks tell you this?

No. Some things are just common knowledge... Which part was I wrong on?

 

[BCCHoosier]

They want to hope there are enough close ones where they can count for days or even a week but it isnt going to matter. Most will not be close enough for the fraud to work. You can only cheat so much without looking totally obvious. Obviously Penns is one place they would like to drag it out a week but I think Oz will simply be up by too much.

Wrong

 

[BCCHoosier]

As I wake up for a bit and look at results, the red wave most predicted will not come to pass. They will take control of Congress and the Senate is too close to call. Georgia is most likely headed to a runoff.

So despite an unpopular president and horrible economy in a midterm year, something is dragging the expected gains down. Maybe this will finally empower more on the right to run away from Trump. He's killing the brand.

 

[Bowlmania]

Depends which polls you are looking at. The polls I look at I do not believe are way off I look at ones with great track records and those polls have Walker and Oz winning. RCP started an accountability report to rate pollsters. Fox news and you gov were both ranked right in the botton five out of like 25. Trafalgar and Emerson in the top five. Anyone can put out a poll but fox is beyond awful at polling I have not paid attention to a fox poll in ten years.

You need a new pollster, @bailey777

And for months you predicted that all the anti-Trump posters would be hiding today. I'm here. Where are you?

 

[BCCHoosier]

You need a new pollster, @bailey777

And for months you predicted that all the anti-Trump posters would be hiding today. I'm here. Where are you?

The repeated "November is coming" over the last 6 months became very tiresome. Both parties have issues.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

He will be silent.

He will have one job. Vote as instructed.

 

[Bowlmania]

The repeated "November is coming" over the last 6 months became very tiresome. Both parties have issues.

Even when things are going well for the party in power, they typically lose a bunch of seats in the mid-terms. This year, with out of control inflation and the economy in the shitter, along with an unpopular Democratic president, Pubs looked poised for historic gains. Instead, they're going to eke out a slim majority in the House and struggle to take over the Senate.

I agree both parties have issues. Last night, though, suggested the GOP has bigger issues as long as Trump and his election denial bullshit are front and center.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

He will have one job. Vote as instructed.

Yep, they will leave a little pile of cinnamon teddy grahams on top of the button they want pushed. When he grabs the goodies he will unknowingly hit the button.

 

[Bowlmania]

About those polls that you trust...

As I told you earlier, the myth of Trafalgar's excellence was developed during 2016 campaign, mainly because they figured out that Trump voters were playing low key in MI,WI and PA. But they never really approached that level of excellence subsequently. They had Trump winning in 2020, they had Newsom losing the runoff, and they were off on all of the post Dobbs races this summer.

I also told you all along that the "likely voter" model that they were using was obsolete, because so many pro-choice voters who had never voted before registered after the Dobbs decision. And the abortion issue and young voters (which Trafalgar had no clue about) were both huge in PA.

His non-stop posting throughout the summer and fall of Republican polling data, and his devotion to some guy named Barris, made him look foolish at the time. Today he looks like a horse's ass.

 

[Circlejoe]

His non-stop posting, throughout the summer and fall, of Republican polling data made him look foolish at the time. Today he looks like a horse's ass.

Might be time for Bailey to change his posting name. Jus sayin.

 

[GeddyHoosier]

Bet0 for 3

 

[Cortez88]

Bet0 for 3

Yep. The Ds need to tell Beto and Abrams that their services are no longer needed. Bye bye.

 

[UncleMark]

Yep. The Ds need to tell Beto and Abrams that their services are no longer needed. Bye bye.

Abrams needs to find herself a safe D district to run in and be satisfied with being in the House.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

If Vance wins be less than 7 points I will pat you on the back. I predict he wins in a route.

Start patting. Red wave didn't happen, Trump candidates lost important Senate and House races. Do you finally understand that Trump is a loser and he's got to be purged for the party to truly succeed going forward?

 

[Fro]

Yep. The Ds need to tell Beto and Abrams that their services are no longer needed. Bye bye.

Beto and Abrams have done a ton of work to build organizations up in Texas/Georgia but they should be involved that way instead of running for statewide office. Abbott even with his many flaws is a stronger candidate than Cruz and has a good ground organization.

Even when things are going well for the party in power, they typically lose a bunch of seats in the mid-terms. This year, with out of control inflation and the economy in the shitter, along with an unpopular Democratic president, Pubs looked poised for historic gains. Instead, they're going to eke out a slim majority in the House and struggle to take over the Senate.

I agree both parties have issues. Last night, though, suggested the GOP has bigger issues as long as Trump and his election denial bullshit are front and center.

It's a lot of different things I think:

• Dobbs decision motivating a lot of people to vote on abortion. I think this is eventually going to lead to the next political realignment.
• The swing voters being suburbanites who have some $$$ and are more insulated from inflation
• Swing voters being more educated and knowing inflation is a global issue more caused by China's dumb "zero-COVID" policy causing shutdowns and Russia/Ukraine war.
• While inflation is awful, the economy is actually still holding up beyond that
• Biden getting a lot of wins July-September, including student loan forgiveness. Got his base motivated
• Trump endorsing dumb celebrity candidates in PA/GA
• Election deniers/Trump sycophants'/loons running for office instead of GOPers who don't say the crazy stuff outloud which is unpopular.
• Trump sucking up a lot of the energy/donations for his grifting and that hurting the GOP ground game
• Trump polarizing a lot of people to vote party-lines on both sides permanently
• Districts are so gerrymandered on both sides that there's limits to how many seats either side can gain.
• A significant number of Republicans moving into Florida and getting taken off the board in other swing states (i.e. MI/PA).
• Bad pollsters like Trafalgar expecting the Trump voters to not respond to polls and come out again like 2016/2020. Also not much good polling and a lot of GOP Partisan pollsters flooding the zone made the GOP think the "red wave" was in the bag.

 

[Circlejoe]

Start patting. Red wave didn't happen, Trump candidates lost important Senate and House races. Do you finally understand that Trump is a loser and he's got to be purged for the party to truly succeed going forward?

The problem with purging Trump is that he will take a significant number of Republican voters with him. If Trump loses the nomination, no way he will go away quietly.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

If Vance wins in a romp like 7+ and Oz is somehow screwed in PA sh!t will hit the fan I believe. Absolutely no one will believe that.

We're going to barely win the House and might not win the Senate. Your demi-God Trump's candidates lost key races for both. Your prediction of a red wave didn't even come close to happening. Do you finally understand that Trump is a loser and he's got to be purged for the party to truly succeed going forward, or do you intend to continue your slavish devotion to that loser? You can respond after you emerge from hiding after being so embarrassingly wrong about this election.

 

[IU_Hickory]

Bet0 for 3

Yea, because he is in Texas which has a lot of Republicans.

Want to go over the record of GOP politicians in senate races in California? Lol

 

[Indyhorn]

The short answer is Not DJT or his supporters- that dude is killing team elephant- no red wave the way things are going under Biden is flabbergasting, only one person to blame for the under-performance- Donald J Trump. If DeSantis can’t stand up to him in the primary, I think team elephant is in some trouble- outside of Red states Trump is loathed sorry Lucy and DANC

 

[Bowlmania]

Beto and Abrams have done a ton of work to build organizations up in Texas/Georgia but they should be involved that way instead of running for statewide office. Abbott even with his many flaws is a stronger candidate than Cruz and has a good ground organization.

It's a lot of different things I think:

• Dobbs decision motivating a lot of people to vote on abortion. I think this is eventually going to lead to the next political realignment.
• The swing voters being suburbanites who have some $$$ and are more insulated from inflation
• Swing voters being more educated and knowing inflation is a global issue more caused by China's dumb "zero-COVID" policy causing shutdowns and Russia/Ukraine war.
• While inflation is awful, the economy is actually still holding up beyond that
• Biden getting a lot of wins July-September, including student loan forgiveness. Got his base motivated
• Trump endorsing dumb celebrity candidates in PA/GA
• Election deniers/Trump sycophants'/loons running for office instead of GOPers who don't say the crazy stuff outloud which is unpopular.
• Trump sucking up a lot of the energy/donations for his grifting and that hurting the GOP ground game
• Trump polarizing a lot of people to vote party-lines on both sides permanently
• Districts are so gerrymandered on both sides that there's limits to how many seats either side can gain.
• A significant number of Republicans moving into Florida and getting taken off the board in other swing states (i.e. MI/PA).
• Bad pollsters like Trafalgar expecting the Trump voters to not respond to polls and come out again like 2016/2020. Also not much good polling and a lot of GOP Partisan pollsters flooding the zone made the GOP think the "red wave" was in the bag.

Excellent observations and great post!

 

[Bowlmania]

We're going to barely win the House and might not win the Senate. Your demi-God Trump's candidates lost key racers for both. Red wave didn't even come close to happening. Do you finally understand that Trump is a loser and he's got to be purged for the party to truly succeed going forward, or do you intend to continue your slavish devotion to that loser? You can respond after you emerge from hiding after being so embarrassingly wrong about this election.

He's hardly alone here in his unwavering devotion to the orange god. Danc and bailey are right there with him.

 

[IU_Hickory]

• Swing voters being more educated and knowing inflation is a global issue more caused by China's dumb "zero-COVID" policy causing shutdowns and Russia/Ukraine war.

The thing also being ignored in regards to the inflation/high gas prices is the record level of profits. Which means prices (especially at the pump) are fueled by greed as much as anything. If people can raise prices and get customers to displace blame on someone else, then many will raise prices.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

That doesn't even make sense, as OH is a red-tinged purple state and PA has about 500,000 more registered Dems than Pubs. Oz will have to count on split tickets among pubs voting for Schapiro, while DeWine will win in a walk and likely pull Vance along. Mastriano will drag Oz down- it's totally the opposite situation from Ohio...

The early vote numbers look very good for Dems in OH, compared to 2018. In 2018 early voting resulted in a 44-42 GOP lead. Sherrod Brown won the seat in an upset, while the Pubs captured the Governorship.

But in 2022 the early vote totals in OH are 44-39 Dems, so instead of a lead Vance is actually trailing heading into election day. The polls don't reflect that, but I'm telling you polls have limits and basically measure the people who intend to vote (who haven't yet) while actual turnout numbers tell the story of where the actual election stands. And Ryan is a popular guy with name recognition that some people registered as Republicans will vote for.

I don't think Ohio is currently close to being purple. Republicans are winning across the board this year with the exception of some races that are safe for Democrats. When I voted I noticed there were a lot of races where Republicans were running unopposed. Democrats didn't even bother to contest them. There were no Democrats running unopposed for any race. Ohio is probably about as red as Florida now. That may change in the future, but unlikely to be anytime soon.

 

[ButHerEmails]

You need a new pollster, @bailey777

And for months you predicted that all the anti-Trump posters would be hiding today. I'm here. Where are you?

Yeah, which one of our local self-important assholes was saying this would be a shellacking, or bloodbath, or thrashing? Whatever word they used. The red tsunami was spotting at best.

 

[ButHerEmails]

You need a new pollster, @bailey777

And for months you predicted that all the anti-Trump posters would be hiding today. I'm here. Where are you?

Yeah, which one of our local self-important assholes was saying this would be a shellacking, or bloodbath, or thrashing? Whatever word they used. The red tsunami was spotting at best.

 

[DANC]

He's hardly alone here in his unwavering devotion to the orange god. Danc and bailey are right there with him.

Living in your head, rent free, for over 2 years now.

 

[ButHerEmails]

The thing also being ignored in regards to the inflation/high gas prices is the record level of profits. Which means prices (especially at the pump) are fueled by greed as much as anything. If people can raise prices and get customers to displace blame on someone else, then many will raise prices.

That’s so weird.

 

[DANC]

He's hardly alone here in his unwavering devotion to the orange god. Danc and bailey are right there with him.

Living in your head, rent free, for over 2 years now.

 

[Bowlmania]

Living in your head, rent free, for over 2 years now.

I'm not surprised you're even more irritable than usual. Trump was the big LOSER last night, danky boy. Get over it.

 

[DANC]

I'm not surprised you're even more irritable than usual. Trump was the big LOSER last night, danky boy. Get over it.

Trump wasn't on my ballot. Was he on yours, Bowel?

 

[Bowlmania]

Trump wasn't on my ballot. Was he on yours, Bowel?

There you go ahead, danky, with that lower GI tract obsession. Will you be posting, once again, the definition of "anal" in large, bold type? Or calling people assholes? Is this problem something that goes back to your childhood? Maybe an issue with potty training?

Don't kid yourself, pal. Trump was definitely on the ballot last night. He lost. It's DeSantis' party now.

 

[jet812]

The problem with purging Trump is that he will take a significant number of Republican voters with him. If Trump loses the nomination, no way he will go away quietly.

Take them where?