Boy, I hope so. I look forward to an end to crime, inflation, racism, and division. Starting 11/9, we will wake up in a utopia of conservative government, which will have all the resources they need to solve all of our problems.
I’ll be happy with victories over the Tar Heels, Jayhawks and Wildcats.
Well, sure. But, at this point, just looking for a strong start. If they can get these, the rest of the year could be outstanding.
Not sure how you can claim early voting means nothing, or else predict how motivated people who say they are highly motivated to vote on Tues are to actually go out and do so depending on weather, lines etc... And at this point are the people who are "undecided" going to break a specific direction AND going to reach a definite decision which motivates them to go out and vote? Or are they just going to remain "undecided" and end up not voting?
thehill.com
Fetterman can’t even talk. Savvy social media. Jesus. Our gov is a jokeNot sure how you can claim early voting means nothing, or else predict how motivated people who say they are highly motivated to vote on Tues are to actually go out and do so depending on weather, lines etc... And at this point are the people who are "undecided" going to break a specific direction AND going to reach a definite decision which motivates them to go out and vote? Or are they just going to remain "undecided" and end up not voting?
But regardless, the point he makes is that Dem early vote in key areas in 2022, is ahead of where it was at the same point in both 2018 and 2020, which are the two most recent record setting turnout elections where Dem early voting was the key. I'm not saying he's right, because I don't know.
But an obvious example is PA, where there are more registered Dems than Pubs. The Pubs had about a 32,000 gain from party switchers, but that was basically negated by Dems having a 30,000 advantage among first time voters who registered. But a key demographic this year may be 18-29 yr olds, who are voting early at a much higher rate in 2022,than they did in either 2018 or 2020.
In 2018 there were about 18,500 early voters of that demographic, and in 2020 it was 70,000. But it's already at 80,000+ this year, and while the Dem share of those early youth voters was 61% in 2018, it's basically an 80-15% Dem lead with nearly 3x as many votes cast in 2022 early voting.
More young voters headed to Pennsylvania polls early in 2022 than in 2018
Tens of thousands more young voters in Pennsylvania are voting early this year compared to the 2018 midterm elections, according to an online tracker of early voting. TargetEarly, a dashboard…
Keep in mind that Fetterman has run a very savy social media campaign, which has likely driven young Dems in PA to be more engaged than normal. And Oz is just not very likeable, even among Pubs who plan to vote for him...
So basically I am putting on public record a counterpoint, so that if things aren't as wonderful for the GOP on Tues as you predict, you can't come on here and whine about stolen elections. Of course you can and will, but rationale folks will have this historical record to refer back to. If the Senate doesn't end up with people like Masters, Oz and Herschel all winning then it's because the polls are off and they are relying on measuring people who could vote, rather than people who already have voted...
What is your prediction?Not sure how you can claim early voting means nothing, or else predict how motivated people who say they are highly motivated to vote on Tues are to actually go out and do so depending on weather, lines etc... And at this point are the people who are "undecided" going to break a specific direction AND going to reach a definite decision which motivates them to go out and vote? Or are they just going to remain "undecided" and end up not voting?
But regardless, the point he makes is that Dem early vote in key areas in 2022, is ahead of where it was at the same point in both 2018 and 2020, which are the two most recent record setting turnout elections where Dem early voting was the key. I'm not saying he's right, because I don't know.
But an obvious example is PA, where there are more registered Dems than Pubs. The Pubs had about a 32,000 gain from party switchers, but that was basically negated by Dems having a 30,000 advantage among first time voters who registered. But a key demographic this year may be 18-29 yr olds, who are voting early at a much higher rate in 2022,than they did in either 2018 or 2020.
In 2018 there were about 18,500 early voters of that demographic, and in 2020 it was 70,000. But it's already at 80,000+ this year, and while the Dem share of those early youth voters was 61% in 2018, it's basically an 80-15% Dem lead with nearly 3x as many votes cast in 2022 early voting.
More young voters headed to Pennsylvania polls early in 2022 than in 2018
Tens of thousands more young voters in Pennsylvania are voting early this year compared to the 2018 midterm elections, according to an online tracker of early voting. TargetEarly, a dashboard…
Keep in mind that Fetterman has run a very savy social media campaign, which has likely driven young Dems in PA to be more engaged than normal. And Oz is just not very likeable, even among Pubs who plan to vote for him...
So basically I am putting on public record a counterpoint, so that if things aren't as wonderful for the GOP on Tues as you predict, you can't come on here and whine about stolen elections. Of course you can and will, but rationale folks will have this historical record to refer back to. If the Senate doesn't end up with people like Masters, Oz and Herschel all winning then it's because the polls are off and they are relying on measuring people who could vote, rather than people who already have voted...
18 year old kids with undeveloped brains coming out in droves to vote for a guy with a broken brain apparently
Where did I mention either of those 2 states/races? Clue- I didn't... The same folks who are touting great early vote numbers for Dems in states like PA and GA, also say that they are terrible in both FL and NV. So I assure you when I'm talking about "early vote totals" contradicting the polls, neither of those 2 states are on the itinerary...
"2020 was different. Elias and the Democrats came up with a game plan, flawlessly executed it, and badly out-coached Trump and the GOP. The game plan was essentially to use the pandemic to coordinate litigation and administrative processes to relax voting security, especially in close battle-ground states, which made election misconduct easier and more difficult to catch."
I agree with the House being lost (we haven't even talked the effects of gerrymandering) and anywhere from a +1 to - 1 or 2 in the Senate. And that's really the idea behind this thread. It's just my public record of disputing the claims by some regrading a 53 or 54 GOP Senate and GOP wins in NH,AZ etc being posted here.
The reason pubs are going to win is because Dems are out of touch with the majority of voters. How do you miss this irony? “The left has gone super crazy in ways the average American can’t understand.” Bill Maher just today on why Dems will lose. You have got to get out of whatever news bubble you’re trapped
He made this argument? Because that's just bad math. A 32K party-switch in favor of the GOP countered by 30K new Dem voters is not a wash. It's a 34K shift towards the Repubs.
Cruz, huh?
Running on 01/06, abortion, CRT, etc was never going to be a winning strategey when the economy and inflation are the number one issues. No matter how bad dems wanted 01/06 to be the main issues it just is not for most voters and never will be.
Once again, I look forward to the upcoming Red Tsunami, and the resultant utopia of no crime, inflation, or division.
Senate: 55R GOP flips NV, NH, GA & AZ plus 1 extra shocker. Schumer has very narrow win
I don't know. Lots of strange variables and flubs giving me some pause on what i was hoping was going to be a red tsunami. dumbass trump running his mouth; but so too is biden w/ stupid statements. hopefully a wash. But let's turn our attention to some senate races and things i'm seeing: jd vance had eyeliner on today. horrible mistake. who decided that? mark kelly wore his full nasa suit today. big time flex. hard to vote against a guy in a nasa suit. then i'm reading don't go by the results we hear tomorrow night because the final results will be later. well that's code for dems need to see how things go and if it's poor they'll work some voodoo on our dumbasses and win again. and the weather is spotty in some locales. why can't we mail our votes in. why do we always have to wait until the last day to show up. stupid. shit happens. storms happen. anyway. should be interesting. if i were herschel i'd be wearing my old georgia football jersey from now until friday
Herschel can smell the goal line. I've received 3 texts from him in the last 3 days (always responded "STOP", as with all candidates) and still he persists. So does Charlie Kirk.
Does the can spam act or whatever it’s called apply to political campaign texts?
I think so. That's why I'm preserving the first Charlie Kirk text and my response, and the one from another number that says "Charlie asked me to text you . . .".
3rd world countries like Brazil can all count their votes on election night. Everyone knows what they're doing. They're aiming for the 2nd Civil War.
www.businessinsider.com
They want to hope there are enough close ones where they can count for days or even a week but it isnt going to matter. Most will not be close enough for the fraud to work. You can only cheat so much without looking totally obvious. Obviously Penns is one place they would like to drag it out a week but I think Oz will simply be up by too much.
Kind of like getting his ass kicked ruined DJT’s plans a couple of years ago. He definitely didn’t see that coming.
If Vance wins in a romp like 7+ and Oz is somehow screwed in PA sh!t will hit the fan I believe. Absolutely no one will believe that.
Losing AZ -- and Fox calling it when they did -- was what sent Trump off the rails.
No...
As I pointed out in my other thread on PA, it will be impossible for PA to be anywhere close to counted on election night. The GOP controlled PA Senate has mandated that none of the early/mail ballots can even be opened until the following day. We started scanning the ballots we received in person during Oct on Nov 1,and as far as I know we haven't completely counted all of them yet. That's just one county (Monroe) in IN and only applies to the in-person ballots we collected on site up until Nov 1 when we started scanning ballots cast each day...
No, it's not. A 30K advantage among new voters is indeed a 30K advantage for Dems, but a 32K advantage among party-switchers isn't a 32K advantage for the GOP, it's a 64K advantage, because the Dems lose a voter for each voter the GOP gains. Hence, a 34K total advantage for the GOP.
That doesn't even make sense, as OH is a red-tinged purple state and PA has about 500,000 more registered Dems than Pubs. Oz will have to count on split tickets among pubs voting for Schapiro, while DeWine will win in a walk and likely pull Vance along. Mastriano will drag Oz down- it's totally the opposite situation from Ohio...
