So here is what I think will happen in CF

[Courtsensetwo]

Lots of chatter and posturing here about IU or any other FB non-perfromer getting booted from the BIGGER yadda yadda yadda.

Here is what i think will actually happen in two phases

Phase one: two to four years

BIGGER revenue is reconfigured favoring those with bigger contributions. IU, PU Ill etc still get a shitton of cash but less than Ahia MI etc. Nobody gets booted as there are too many other components of the conference such as academics, research and other sports where IU does quite well.

Phase two: four to six years.

The top 12 programs in the nation will split off and form their own super conference aimed at the NFL, NIL $$$ and TV. Conference will be FB only and ND will finally cry uncle.

IU and PU don't get booted from the BIGGER...the BIGGEST leave.

And I might be way off base

 

[TomEric4756]

Lots of chatter and posturing here about IU or any other FB non-perfromer getting booted from the BIGGER yadda yadda yadda.

Here is what i think will actually happen in two phases

Phase one: two to four years

BIGGER revenue is reconfigured favoring those with bigger contributions. IU, PU Ill etc still get a shitton of cash but less than Ahia MI etc. Nobody gets booted as there are too many other components of the conference such as academics, research and other sports where IU does quite well.

Phase two: four to six years.

The top 12 programs in the nation will split off and form their own super conference aimed at the NFL, NIL $$$ and TV. Conference will be FB only and ND will finally cry uncle.

IU and PU don't get booted from the BIGGER...the BIGGEST leave.

And I might be way off base

This is as plausible as any other speculation … The haves leave doesn’t force any conference to kick anyone out. The haves then have the problem of accepting which among them will become the perennial loser.

Should they leave … who would they play in a non-conference schedule. I think they’ll need more like 16 teams for a 12 game schedule.

 

[OpenWheels]

If the 'haves' want to form their own football league I say don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Would be a reasonably OK scenario, then I wouldn't have to watch those games, I could watch other college football.

 

[George.Smalley]

It’s more likely to be 20 to 28 teams.

 

[Jackskip23]

It’s more likely to be 20 to 28 teams.

It’s more likely to remain essentially as it is, since the top programs still need to schedule a full season, and they’ll struggle to do that if they wall themselves off from the balance of the P5. The other impediment will be the rights holders (tv, streaming, etc.), who will simply assert their leverage to fill programming via scheduling flexibility. And none of this contemplates the inevitable revenue sharing with student athletes, which is the next and most immediate challenge over the horizon.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

It’s more likely to be 20 to 28 teams.

Anything is possible but more that 12-14 begins to quickly water down the conf and makes it much more difficult to manage a champion.

 

[TMFT]

Anything is possible but more that 12-14 begins to quickly water down the conf and makes it much more difficult to manage a champion.

They won’t be “conferences” in any traditional sense. Think more like AFC & NFC.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

They won’t be “conferences” in any traditional sense. Think more like AFC & NFC.

Sure. But again, this all may be way off base.

 

[Tommaker]

Lots of chatter and posturing here about IU or any other FB non-perfromer getting booted from the BIGGER yadda yadda yadda.

Here is what i think will actually happen in two phases

Phase one: two to four years

BIGGER revenue is reconfigured favoring those with bigger contributions. IU, PU Ill etc still get a shitton of cash but less than Ahia MI etc. Nobody gets booted as there are too many other components of the conference such as academics, research and other sports where IU does quite well.

Phase two: four to six years.

The top 12 programs in the nation will split off and form their own super conference aimed at the NFL, NIL $$$ and TV. Conference will be FB only and ND will finally cry uncle.

IU and PU don't get booted from the BIGGER...the BIGGEST leave.

And I might be way off base

I see a twenty team super league:

Bama
OSU
ND
Texas
Georgia
Michigan (?)
Clemson
LSU
FSU
USC

Penn State
Nebraska
Miami
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Auburn
Texas A&M
Florida
Wisconsin
Mississippi

Used this as a starting point:



Top ten are the "main" draws & contenders, bottom ten are the wannabe teams with larger viewerships but also the "sacrificial lambs" to the top teams. You might see a soccer type "lowest team(s) drop, best teams from everywhere else elevated" every year or couple of years, but that could get sticky after a while.

I think you'd play 10 games within the league and leave two for rivalries for those on the outside looking in.

The biggest question; is a Super League sustainable? Not even bringing player pay (which is huge) into the discussion, can a shrinking target audience support the dollars required to promote, maintain and professionally broadcast such a league?

Had some Illini fans sitting behind us this weekend, and they kept commenting about the media time outs and the length of the game. Welcome to the new reality. Like movies/TV shows shown on "free" streaming services, all of the interruptions are making it almost unwatchable for the TV audience and uncomfortable for the folks in stadium. To help pay for the current mega-contracts, I fully expect the college broadcasts to start adopting the "real time commercials" that the NFL now does, where they split the screen with live action and a plea to buy more razor blades. How much is the viewing audience willing to take?

 

[kmathum]

I see a twenty team super league:

Bama
OSU
ND
Texas
Georgia
Michigan (?)
Clemson
LSU
FSU
USC

Penn State
Nebraska
Miami
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Auburn
Texas A&M
Florida
Wisconsin
Mississippi

Used this as a starting point:

View embedded media

Top ten are the "main" draws & contenders, bottom ten are the wannabe teams with larger viewerships but also the "sacrificial lambs" to the top teams. You might see a soccer type "lowest team(s) drop, best teams from everywhere else elevated" every year or couple of years, but that could get sticky after a while.

I think you'd play 10 games within the league and leave two for rivalries for those on the outside looking in.

The biggest question; is a Super League sustainable? Not even bringing player pay (which is huge) into the discussion, can a shrinking target audience support the dollars required to promote, maintain and professionally broadcast such a league?

Had some Illini fans sitting behind us this weekend, and they kept commenting about the media time outs and the length of the game. Welcome to the new reality. Like movies/TV shows shown on "free" streaming services, all of the interruptions are making it almost unwatchable for the TV audience and uncomfortable for the folks in stadium. To help pay for the current mega-contracts, I fully expect the college broadcasts to start adopting the "real time commercials" that the NFL now does, where they split the screen with live action and a plea to buy more razor blades. How much is the viewing audience willing to take?

Nebraska?

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I see a twenty team super league:

Bama
OSU
ND
Texas
Georgia
Michigan (?)
Clemson
LSU
FSU
USC

Penn State
Nebraska
Miami
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Auburn
Texas A&M
Florida
Wisconsin
Mississippi

Used this as a starting point:

View embedded media

Top ten are the "main" draws & contenders, bottom ten are the wannabe teams with larger viewerships but also the "sacrificial lambs" to the top teams. You might see a soccer type "lowest team(s) drop, best teams from everywhere else elevated" every year or couple of years, but that could get sticky after a while.

I think you'd play 10 games within the league and leave two for rivalries for those on the outside looking in.

The biggest question; is a Super League sustainable? Not even bringing player pay (which is huge) into the discussion, can a shrinking target audience support the dollars required to promote, maintain and professionally broadcast such a league?

Had some Illini fans sitting behind us this weekend, and they kept commenting about the media time outs and the length of the game. Welcome to the new reality. Like movies/TV shows shown on "free" streaming services, all of the interruptions are making it almost unwatchable for the TV audience and uncomfortable for the folks in stadium. To help pay for the current mega-contracts, I fully expect the college broadcasts to start adopting the "real time commercials" that the NFL now does, where they split the screen with live action and a plea to buy more razor blades. How much is the viewing audience willing to take?

If there was going to be a super league I think it would be 32 teams, divided into 16 team conferences.

But I don't think it's going to happen, because teams like OSU, Michigan, PSU, Bama, Georgia et al are used to going anywhere from 9-3 at the worst, 12-0 at the best. Now they're going to be 6-6 or 8-4 at best? They need the IUs, Purdues, Rutgers of the world. Now...BT has a problem because we have so damn many of those compared to the SEC. There might be some shake-up in the BT because of that.

 

[Tommaker]

Nebraska?

Second ten and lower tier, but yes. Say what you will about their current state, they're still running an almost 400 consecutive game sell out on a 90K stadium. Per that chart, they're 22 in TV eyeballs (right behind, interestingly enough, Iowa), without the benefit of playing 'the big 3" every year. That's close enough, and I think they have more football name recognition than Iowa outside of the BT. Additionally I think the alumni and fans would clamor for it...much in the same way that Tennessee, ND, Penn State, Miami, etc. would.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Second ten and lower tier, but yes. Say what you will about their current state, they're still running an almost 400 consecutive game sell out on a 90K stadium. Per that chart, they're 22 in TV eyeballs (right behind, interestingly enough, Iowa), without the benefit of playing 'the big 3" every year. That's close enough, and I think they have more football name recognition than Iowa outside of the BT. Additionally I think the alumni and fans would clamor for it...much in the same way that Tennessee, ND, Penn State, Miami, etc. would.

Interestingly, their $450M renovation will result in a reduction in seating capacity to 80,000.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Interestingly, their $450M renovation will result in a reduction in seating capacity to 80,000.

PSU's plans will also reduce their capacity, to around 100,000

 

[Tommaker]

because teams like OSU, Michigan, PSU, Bama, Georgia et al are used to going anywhere from 9-3 at the worst, 12-0 at the best. Now they're going to be 6-6 or 8-4 at best?

Agreed, which is another reason I don't think it could be viable that long. As to the 32, it makes sense from a division/NFL mimic point, but I couldn't get those other 12 teams. They would have to

- be able to "play the game" in terms of NIL, transfers, etc.
- Play the part of "The Washington Generals" and have that be acceptable to fans and alumni
- Possibly take a smaller cut of the pie
- budget for a national travel schedule
- provide a minimum of recognition for the televised national market

 

[Army88]

except Temple, just look at current stadium capacity, which denotes $$ for athletic department, which translates to which programs have the most clout. 10/25 are current or future Big 10. 11/25 Sec. 3/25 ACC. Throw out Temple. makes Big10 10, SEC 11. Add 3 ACC: N Dame, Clemson and FSU and even up Big10 @ 12 and SEC @ 12 to create MAJOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL LEAGUE. MCFL leaves NCAA.
Unless there is a mechanism to create parity (I don’t anticipate a lottery on recruiting), the HALVES will need “CANON FODDER” which gives IU, Vanderbilt, etc. a spot. So all current BIG10 and SEC stay.
That covers every big tv market and every time zone. TV will love it.
Play-off similar to MLB, 4 Big10 in play-in spots, then play 2 best Bigs. 4 SEC in play-in spots and winners play top 2 SEC. WINNER OF SEC PLAYS WINNER OF BIG 10 for National Champ.
Big 12, other ACC AND others may be asked to join either BIG10 or SEC in future years, similar to NFL/MLB/NBA expansion.
Consider a MAJOR COLLEGE BASKETBALL LEAQUE as well. Big East, ACC, Big 12 absorbed. Possible 3 leagues.
MCFL and MCBL no longer are part of NCAA, are not responsible for supporting non-revenue sports. (Hard to imagine this passing).

Michigan	Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Mich.)	107,601
2	Penn State	Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)	106,572
3	Ohio State	Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)	102,780
4	Texas A&M	Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)	102,733
5	LSU	Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)	102,321
6	Tennessee	Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, Tenn.)	101,915
7	Alabama	Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)	101,821
8	Texas	Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)	100,119
9	Georgia	Sanford Stadium (Athens, Ga.)	92,746
10	UCLA	Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif.)	91,136
11	Florida	Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, Fla.)	88,548
12	Auburn	Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn, Ala.)	87,451
13	Oklahoma	Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman, Okla.)	86,112
14	Nebraska	Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Neb.)	85,458
15	Clemson	Clemson Memorial Stadium (Clemson, S.C.)	81,500
16	Notre Dame	Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Ind.)	80,795
17	Florida State	Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)	79,560
18	South Carolina	Williams-Brice Stadium (Columbia, S.C.)	77,559
19	Southern Cal	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)	77,500
20	Wisconsin	Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisc.)	75,822
21	Michigan State	Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Mich.)	74,866
22	Arkansas	Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium (Fayetteville, Ark.)	72,000
23	Washington	Husky Stadium (Seattle, Wash.)	70,138
24	Iowa	Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)	69,250
25	Temple	Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa.)	68,532

 

[Tommaker]

MCFL and MCBL no longer are part of NCAA, are not responsible for supporting non-revenue sports. (Hard to imagine this passing).

That would put the nail into the Title IX coffin, so you're correct, it would never fly.

 

[ams66]

Second ten and lower tier, but yes. Say what you will about their current state, they're still running an almost 400 consecutive game sell out on a 90K stadium. Per that chart, they're 22 in TV eyeballs (right behind, interestingly enough, Iowa), without the benefit of playing 'the big 3" every year. That's close enough, and I think they have more football name recognition than Iowa outside of the BT. Additionally I think the alumni and fans would clamor for it...much in the same way that Tennessee, ND, Penn State, Miami, etc. would.

Something like IU Basketball, Nebraska has a great history in Football but haven't done much lately. But "lately" for them is like 10 years, not three decades.