He's right.Poland's Foreign Minister (European equivalent of a SecState) says NATO response to Russian use of nukes inside Ukraine should be conventional, but "devastating."
Nuclear attack in Ukraine should spark ‘devastating’ Nato response, says Poland
Zbigniew Rau rules out a nuclear reprisal but says the alliance is sending a clear message to Russiawww.theguardian.com
Russia-Ukraine war has begun
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
I heard they did a few days ago when people were trying to cross over due to the draft.
August 22, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news
Ukraine denied having any responsibility in car explosion that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian philosopher and Putin's ally Alexander Dugin, an adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine said. Follow here for the latest from Ukraine.
amp.cnn.com
“The US wouldn’t want to close off pathways to refuge for Russia’s dissidents or others who are vulnerable to human rights abuses. We’ve also been clear that it is important to draw a line between the actions of the Russian government and its policies in Ukraine, and the people of Russia.”
Annexing part of Ukraine based on the sham "referendums" could be a pretext to use of tactical nukes.
Putin has said that using nukes is justified "if the existence of the Russian Federation was threatened.”
so... boom, the areas are now part of Russia, and Ukraine is threatening their existence.
Putin has said that using nukes is justified "if the existence of the Russian Federation was threatened.”
so... boom, the areas are now part of Russia, and Ukraine is threatening their existence.
Last edited:
Defensionem has a Facebook post on Nukes. I found this interesting though:
So they believe Russia may well be satisfied with a bankrupt and failed Ukraine. They also don't think nukes are likely unless the Russian army is thoroughly routed. As in, surrounded and in danger of mass surrender. Or if Russia believes that some combination of Ukraine/NATO will cross the border into Russia. As long as the Russian army can retreat toward Russia, and Russia feels their border is safe, the author doesn't believe Russia will resort to nuclear weapons.
So in other words, they view it as unlikely. But they suggest if it happens it has been thoroughly wargamed. If the west retaliates against Russia, Russia has a lot of options. First, and easiest, destroy Berlin or Paris (or other cities in range). This can be done conventionally. Second, attack or nuke Sweden or Finland. Neither is part of Article 5 yet. And of course, attack a US target.
Ultimately, as stated multiple times, to the dismay of a few social media fanatics and fundamentalists, this will likely lead to a longer conflict that further ruins the internal functionality of the Ukrainian state and places them in the same category as Haiti; a bankrupted, broken, internally gutted and fully in debt nation without an economy, and post conflict, fully reliant on foreign aid to exisit, regardless of a Russian defeat or withdrawl.
*Additionally, as this author has stated numerous times, the above situation for Ukraine, is the truewithdrawal and goal of Russia.*
So they believe Russia may well be satisfied with a bankrupt and failed Ukraine. They also don't think nukes are likely unless the Russian army is thoroughly routed. As in, surrounded and in danger of mass surrender. Or if Russia believes that some combination of Ukraine/NATO will cross the border into Russia. As long as the Russian army can retreat toward Russia, and Russia feels their border is safe, the author doesn't believe Russia will resort to nuclear weapons.
So in other words, they view it as unlikely. But they suggest if it happens it has been thoroughly wargamed. If the west retaliates against Russia, Russia has a lot of options. First, and easiest, destroy Berlin or Paris (or other cities in range). This can be done conventionally. Second, attack or nuke Sweden or Finland. Neither is part of Article 5 yet. And of course, attack a US target.
The prospect of nuclear weapon use by Russia is real, but under specific conditions. The goal is to not allow that possibility to materialize. If it does and were Russia to in fact employ them, however limited, there would not be any winners and the response options would likely lead to further destruction and loss of life.
Putin will send the new, old recruits there as cannon fodder -- and after they are slaughtered he can then make the claim that Russia has lost its blood on its (new) Motherland -- which then justifies the use of nukes, WMDs followed by a pincer offensive action.
Once this happens, NATO will be forced to get involved, at which point we will reach a dangerous precipice.
Last edited:
So the annexations are official and Ukraine responds by applying to join NATO. Odds of this war dragging out a very long time just got much shorter.
I don't think they can join while actively involved in a conflict. That being said, I would not support their addition. We can do this proxy thing and provide them all sorts of military training and support, but I really don't want to add a country that has been in Russia's sphere of influence for centuries to the list of countries where we basically are willing to get into a nuclear war over.
odds of the USA getting directly involved seem to be disturbingly higher, however.
Talk about something that would tank our economy...
I don't think ever. About the only time I would consider it would be when it was effectively no longer necessary.
I think we will see this as a negotiation point, Russia will give up the annexation and the West forever bans Ukraine from NATO.
If we had to do that, Russia would have to give up Crimea for me to sign on. I mean, it is good to have the threat of joining out there but I don't think I would ever allow them to join.
They were at least ten years away from joining before Crimea happened. It's not enough to just end the Russian thing. They need to deal with corruption and stability, too.
Alternatively, Ukraine could forever give up claim to those lands in exchange for peace, and then try to join as Rump Ukraine.
It could, but I really think Putin's play here is as a bargaining chip. I think it may be those areas being a DMZ, or a promise to never join NATO, or something. I think he may think annexing gives him a trump card the military did not win in negotiating.
Problem is those areas he annexed have high yielding gas fields. May be problematic if it's a DMZ
I think it goes on until Ukraine takes back everything other than Crimea. By that time both sides will be completely exhausted.
Ukraine will have to forget about Crimea. Russia will have to 'give back' everything else...releasing their claims to those areas.
Russia will make promises it has no intention of keeping concerning not agitating in the disputed areas. Ukraine will promise that pro-Russian areas will receive fair treatment and pro-Russia citizens will get amnesty.
And then, in 10 years, Russia v. Ukraine II.
Lovely.
I don't think that there is a real good understanding of what a nuclear exchange would mean for most people under 40 (if not a bit older). Even a full out exchange between India and Pakistan could mean the collapse of human civilization.
If Marvin's link yesterday was accurate, Russia's normal launch platforms for tactical nukes likely aren't reliable, or even operational. That means a nuclear strike in Ukraine will likely come from one of these bombers.
These folks are in for a rude awakening when their expeditionary forces return from having been routed by what should have been an inferior army. These folks are also who is likely to take over if/when Putin is removed from office IMO.Russizm in their own words:
He ends by saying “God is with us” -- straight after the murdering and looting stuff. 🤣 🤣
We really seem to be working ourselves backwards. When I was a child, Reagan and Gorbachev were deescalating and denuclearizing. I remember the Cold War but I wasn't doing nuclear war practice in school. I saw the Berlin Wall come down before I was a teen. The Soviet Union collapsed as I was becoming a teen. We were celebrating the "Winds of Change" impacting the iron curtain and "Right here, right now" the world was supposedly "waking up from history".
And now? Well we are deciding to give all that stuff that Reagan and Gorbachev were negotiating to decrease and end another go. Except this time there are going to be others invited to the party as countries like China and India come into their own. Historian are going to look back at the past 30 years and discuss just how badly they were handled.
It's a different era we are heading into now -- multi-polar world. No longer one that was much simpler than in the past.
October 1, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news
Russian troops withdrew from the key Donetsk town of Lyman, just one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the annexations of four regions — including Donetsk — of Ukraine. Follow here for the latest news updates.
Looks like Lyman fell. Going to hamper the Russian supply lines.
"It's a slaughter..."October 1, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news
Russian troops withdrew from the key Donetsk town of Lyman, just one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the annexations of four regions — including Donetsk — of Ukraine. Follow here for the latest news updates.www.cnn.com
Looks like Lyman fell. Going to hamper the Russian supply lines.
“its a slaughter”
3:32pm, September 30th, San Francisco1:32am, October 1st, Eastern Ukraine Moved north. its a slaughter cut them off west of kreminna. got to go. Stay safe. Lyman totally cut off? I think so, engadg…
ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com
If this is true the Russians are suffering a horrific defeat. Putin ordered these guys not to surrender and they are bumbling into front lines and getting cut to pieces with little food, little ammo, and little medical supplies.
A
anon_6hv78pr714xta
Guest
That this is O.K. in Russia, even if it's just a far right portion of the electorate, shows just how wide the gap is between Western culture and Russian. OAN or Alex Jones wouldn't even push ideas like that.Russizm in their own words:
He ends by saying “God is with us” -- straight after the murdering and looting stuff. 🤣 🤣
Destroy Paris or Berlin conventionally?
What juvenile wrote that?
Russia has no options if they use nukes. If they do, the US and NATO will bomb the hell out of them in Ukraine. Anything more and Moscow would go, too, if they tried to nuke a European city.
I wouldn't trust any 'intelligence' found on Twitter from some Israeli source.
They have a vested interest in us getting involved in a nuclear standoff with Russia.
They're also the ones who bombed a US spy ship, the USS Liberty, in 1967.
I support Israel, but they do what's best for them and are not above spreading false information to advance their goals.
They already agreed to this after the Soviet Union broke up - NATO and Russia would be mutually responsible for the safety of Ukraine.
We see how that worked out.
A lot of nationalists are into Real Politik. India's weaponry is heavily Russian. Their government is worried about losing spare parts and other support for it.
I actually spoke to an Indian expert about India's tepid response about April or May., that was pretty much his answer. India will give Russia a lot of leeway to make sure their weapons pipeline is safe. The question I need to ask now, the pipeline has to be in critical danger because Russia cannot supply their own army.
