They wouldn't drop the nuke in territory they intend to occupy. Kyiv is within range of places in Russian territory tactical nukes could be launched from.
Russia-Ukraine war has begun
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
That's just not true in any way. They would stop any force in its tracks instantly.
Again, what advantage is gained from that other than terrorism? That is my point. They maybe terrorize the Ukrainians into suing for peace. However, just one dropped on Kyiv is unlikely to do that for the Ukrainians. It is more likely to lead to a take no prisoners approach across the front and draw in the West.
Russia cannot beat the West conventionally. They have a terror weapon whose wholesale use leads to their own destruction. They are suicide bombers. That isn't meant to hold a battlefield, they are meant to scare away a stronger force.
We are having two different discussions.
Let me explain it like this. The use of nuclear weapons is metaphorically like bringing a hand grenade to a street fight. You and your opponent both have one but the use of them to impact the other is going to lead to both of you being dead or severely maimed.
Yeah, the nukes stop the Ukrainians in their tracks and then invite retaliation from the strongest military alliance on the planet against you. Now you have to deal with that defeat or use them again. And then they are used against you. We all die, yippee.
They are completely and utterly useless to use unless you are in the position of the U.S. at the end of WW2 where you are the only person who has them. And even then, they were used to level two targets that were nominally military. It was to scare the shit out of the Japanese leadership. We literally have the means to fight a war of annihilation against you that you cannot hope to win.
That dynamic doesn't exist anymore. Any use of a nuclear weapon by the West or Russia is likely to set off a chain of events where we all lose. That is a worthless weapon if your goal is to actually win some geopolitical goal through your war.
All true, I get you, and yeah we're looking at it from two different angles. They would be without doubt impactful as a tactical weapon. Which is what I'm arguing.
I woke up thinking about this -- was it just pure luck that the train happened to be there? It couldn't have been that well timed to blow up just when a fuel-carrying train happened to pass by? Suicide truck driver?
Or was it perfectly timed remotely? Or was the bomb truck a red herring and it was some missile attack on the bridge or a bomb that was planted onto the structure?
ISW cites reports of dissent in Russian ranks, and Discusses support of the war from warlords actively participating in the attacks. Warlords in Russia … who knew … A Russian civil war to replace Putin would be as ugly as the red and white army clashes 100 years ago.
Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. The Washington Post reported that US intelligence obtained information that a member of Putin’s inner circle directly criticized Putin’s “extensive military shortcomings” during the war in Ukraine, and other Western and Kremlin-affiliated officials noted rising criticism of Putin’s mishandling of the war and mobilization.[1] …
Some Russian milbloggers have begun speculating that there are two factions within the Kremlin following Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Private Military Company financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s harsh criticism of the Russian higher military command.[2] A milblogger told his nearly one million readers that Kadyrov and Prigozhin are part of the faction that seeks to continue the war and accomplish its ideological goals regardless of cost. …
The presentation of fundamental disagreements within Putin’s inner circle and challenges to his decisions, even if quiet, within the Russian nationalist space risks depicting Putin as weak and not fully in control of his government. The truth or falseness of that presentation is less important than its injection into the audiences on which Putin most relies for continued support in his war. …
Kadyrov and Prigozhin will likely attempt to make minor ground advances in Donetsk Oblast to maintain their prominence and reputation in the nationalist and proxy information spaces. Russian forces have been making incremental advances around Bakhmut and Avdiivka between October 6 and October 7, likely with the support of Wagner and Kadyrov’s elements in the area.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7
Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. The Washington Post reported that US intelligence obtained information that a member of Putin’s inner circle directly criticized Putin’s “extensive military shortcomings” during the war in Ukraine, and other Western and Kremlin-affiliated officials noted rising criticism of Putin’s mishandling of the war and mobilization.[1] …
Some Russian milbloggers have begun speculating that there are two factions within the Kremlin following Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Private Military Company financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s harsh criticism of the Russian higher military command.[2] A milblogger told his nearly one million readers that Kadyrov and Prigozhin are part of the faction that seeks to continue the war and accomplish its ideological goals regardless of cost. …
The presentation of fundamental disagreements within Putin’s inner circle and challenges to his decisions, even if quiet, within the Russian nationalist space risks depicting Putin as weak and not fully in control of his government. The truth or falseness of that presentation is less important than its injection into the audiences on which Putin most relies for continued support in his war. …
Kadyrov and Prigozhin will likely attempt to make minor ground advances in Donetsk Oblast to maintain their prominence and reputation in the nationalist and proxy information spaces. Russian forces have been making incremental advances around Bakhmut and Avdiivka between October 6 and October 7, likely with the support of Wagner and Kadyrov’s elements in the area.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7
Great...Russia wants someone like Reinhard Heydrich to be its leader-an absolute psycho.
I blame his long table. Who can blame Putin for mishearing things from his generals and advisors 20yards away?
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I can't believe that Putin hasn't tried harder to negotiate a peace, given he will break every promise he makes to Ukraine anyway? It's kind of the Russian way but it would sound good Vlad even if not genuine.I blame his long table. Who can blame Putin for mishearing things from his generals and advisors 20yards away?
I think he is deluded like Hitler was. Hitler would order panzer divisions to attack in 1945 expecting the same results as 1941. The fact the entire division only had two working tanks was something he refused to accept as a hinderance. Megalomania creates this idea one can bend reality to their iron will.
Plus dictators have a short lifespan if their opponents see weakness.
At this point there is no reason for Ukraine to accept anything other than total Russian withdrawal.
Consider this scenario. Putin decides his very life depends on finishing the operation. So he launches enough nukes to destroy Kyiev completely and then demand surrender. Assuming Ukraine says "no", the U.S. brings in forces to wipe out the Black Sea fleet and also force remaining Russian strongholds out of eastern Ukraine, but the damage is done and Ukraine can no longer wage war. At that point Russia considers targets to counter their losses and perhaps consider another major European city. Then, the U.S. has no play and simply must withdraw Ukrainian support to prevent destruction of Europe. Russia then takes Ukraine, nuclear fallout occurs, Putin is ousted internally, and Russia indeed becomes the rogue pariah. Certainly weakened over time, but as long as they have nukes, they get to decide when peace can and cannot occur. I don't see how they can NOT use nukes, unless the U.S. is there. It might be worthwhile for NATO to threaten to cut Russia off from the Black Sea entirely unless they retreat.
Basically, NATO needs to threaten Russia with loss of territory if they use even a single nuclear weapon. Cutting off their entire shipping and military access to the Black Sea would be devastating.
Basically, NATO needs to threaten Russia with loss of territory if they use even a single nuclear weapon. Cutting off their entire shipping and military access to the Black Sea would be devastating.
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I was thinking there would be a bigger impact too. The railway bridge wasn’t damaged.
The real damage is likely continued loss of confidence in the Russian military.
The added logistics delays won’t help the Kherson defenders.
A large-scale explosion damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied Crimea with Russia on October 8. Maxar satellite imagery shows that the explosion collapsed one lane of the road bridge and damaged the nearby railway track.[1] The Russian Investigative Committee stated that a truck exploded on the bridge and ignited seven fuel tanks on the railroad.[2]… Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted that the Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a government commission composed of government officials, security services, and the Ministry of Emergency Situations to investigate the ”emergency.”[6]
The explosion will not permanently disrupt critical Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Crimea, but its aftermath is likely to increase friction in Russian logistics for some time. The road bridge appears at least partially operational, and the railroad bridge did not suffer significant structural damage according to Russian reports that generally seem plausible based on the available video evidence. … Russian officials will likely intensify security checks on all vehicles crossing the bridge, however, adding delays to the movement of Russian military equipment, personnel, and supplies to Crimea. Putin has already signed a decree strengthening the security protocol on the bridge under the supervision of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).[9]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-8
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The first act of The Butcher of Alleppo:
I suspect this won't be the last, based on the Aleppo experience.
I suspect this won't be the last, based on the Aleppo experience.
Updated overview:
www.theguardian.com
Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 229 of the invasion
Russia escalates attacks on Ukrainian cities after Vladimir Putin calls attack on Kerch bridge an ‘act of terror’
Updated overview:
Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 229 of the invasion
Russia escalates attacks on Ukrainian cities after Vladimir Putin calls attack on Kerch bridge an ‘act of terror’
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I have no qualms about destroying enemy infrastructure, but Ukraine cannot cry foul about civilian casualties and go and car bomb a bridge killing civilians
It is intent to me. The bridge is used to transport military equipment into occupied Crimea. That is a legitimate military target. The civilian deaths are unfortunate collateral damage, but they were not the intended target. On the other hand, lobbing less than accurate missiles into the middle of a city is indiscriminate and the civilians and their homes themselves are truly the target.
So yes, I think the Ukrainians can complain. The Russians brought in the civilian barrel bomber to prosecute their war and he is doing what he does. It is simply terrorism. A military impotently lashing out because they are losing, they know it, and they don't have a true military means beyond terrorism (conventional or otherwise) to say much about it.
Because Putin is a thug in charge of a terrorist regime.
Putin punches you, you kick him in the nuts, and then he drop kicks your toddler. "Well, you should have known if you punched him back what would happen...." You seem to be arguing that the Ukrainians should pull their punches on legitimate military targets because the guy who started all this would get mad.
Well.....whether they' matter much' depends on whether Putin is really 'Hitler' or just Kim Jong-un with more firepower. i wonder what Joe's opinion is on that question?
I think 8t was last week, ISW had a mention that Putin was dedicating his smart missiles to civilian targets, thinking it would collapse morale, and at present that seems to be a failure.
I feel badly for the civilians killed, but if those aren't hitting supply and command and control, he isn't hurting Ukraine's war effort. WW2 is a great case that it is very hard to bomb an enemy into submission.
You can, but it has to coincide with also beating their armed forces.
Things like this have to be devastating to Putin's popularity. I suspect he will only get 92% of the vote next time.
The Canadian sniper that went to Ukraine and the press made a big deal about spent two months and accomplished very little.
nationalpost.com
Canadian sniper dodges death in Ukraine: 'It was pretty much close calls every week'
Wali taught himself how to fire a Javelin anti-tank rocket launcher — watching videos on YouTube
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The idiots just got hit by a very accurate artillery strike and their answer is to move their trucks about 50 yards away and park them all like they are in a packed parking lot.
Incompetent isn't strong enough a word for these guys.
