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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

This is the wrong thread for racist tirades. Knock it off.

Edit: Never mind, I just deleted the whole thing, since it looked like it was going to take off again. Everyone please remember that this is the one thread where higher standards are real.
You might want to tell sglowrider to knock off the politics, too.
 
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Lots of interesting Russian domestic backstory in today’s ISW report.

Putin is visibly failing at balancing the competing demands of the Russian nationalists who have become increasingly combative since mobilization began despite sharing Putin’s general war aims and goals in Ukraine. ISW has identified three main factions in the current Russian nationalist information space: Russian milbloggers and war correspondents, former Russian or proxy officers and veterans, and some of the Russian siloviki—people with meaningful power bases and forces of their own. Putin needs to retain the support of all three of these factions. Milbloggers present Putin’s vision to a pro-war audience in both Russia and the proxy republics. The veteran community is helping organize and support force generation campaigns.[6] The siloviki are providing combat power on the battlefield. Putin needs all three factions to sustain his war effort, but the failures in Ukraine combined with the chaotic partial mobilization are seemingly disrupting the radical nationalist community in Russia. Putin is currently trying to appease this community by featuring some milbloggers on state-owned television, allowing siloviki to generate their own forces and continue offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk City, and placating veterans by ordering mobilization and engaging the general public in the war effort as they have long demanded.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian gains seem to be accelerating … didn’t stop after Lyman.

Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20October%2004%2C2022.png


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-4
 
Lots of interesting Russian domestic backstory in today’s ISW report.

Putin is visibly failing at balancing the competing demands of the Russian nationalists who have become increasingly combative since mobilization began despite sharing Putin’s general war aims and goals in Ukraine. ISW has identified three main factions in the current Russian nationalist information space: Russian milbloggers and war correspondents, former Russian or proxy officers and veterans, and some of the Russian siloviki—people with meaningful power bases and forces of their own. Putin needs to retain the support of all three of these factions. Milbloggers present Putin’s vision to a pro-war audience in both Russia and the proxy republics. The veteran community is helping organize and support force generation campaigns.[6] The siloviki are providing combat power on the battlefield. Putin needs all three factions to sustain his war effort, but the failures in Ukraine combined with the chaotic partial mobilization are seemingly disrupting the radical nationalist community in Russia. Putin is currently trying to appease this community by featuring some milbloggers on state-owned television, allowing siloviki to generate their own forces and continue offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk City, and placating veterans by ordering mobilization and engaging the general public in the war effort as they have long demanded.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian gains seem to be accelerating … didn’t stop after Lyman.

Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20October%2004%2C2022.png


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-4
Russians appear to be in full flight. It may be a massacre when the newly called-up conscripts show up.

I don't see how Putin survives much longer. Wouldn't surprise me if he has to 'retire for health purposes'.
 
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No may be about it. What the Russians are planning on sending to the front is appalling.

Let me spin a yarn here.

My guess is that Putin is sending tactical nukes to the Ukrainian front in order to provoke "the West" into some form of retaliation. Putin's thinking - gamble, really - is that in turn will cause the Russian people to further blame "the West" for the Ukraine war and all of their other troubles - even those caused by Putin and his policies.

Putin's entire political strength comes from blaming "the West" for everything . . . and the Russian, Chinese and Indian people eat that shit up.

No, I think that the tactical nukes to Ukraine move is part of an overall strategy by Putin to put Western leaders in a position of playing into his hands . . . and unless the retaliation is backed with some serious Radio Free Europe effort (or the 21st century version of it) then I don't think Putin's in trouble . . . I think he "wins" even though he's losing.

Sometimes I think it's a sin
When I feel like I'm winning
When I'm losing again . . .
 
This guy....is making now Lindsey Graham appear vaguely rational in the process. Then you know you are not all there.



This reads like it was written in Kremlin. Not great for the future of Twitter when the new owner spews out misinformation like it is like Pravda.
 
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This guy....is making now Lindsey Graham appear vaguely rational in the process. Then you know you are not all there.



This reads like it was written in Kremlin. Not great for the future of Twitter when the new owner spews out misinformation like it is like Pravda.

Does he not know he cannot run for president as a populist-nationalist? Because he sure seems to be trying.
 
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This guy....is making now Lindsey Graham appear vaguely rational in the process. Then you know you are not all there.



This reads like it was written in Kremlin. Not great for the future of Twitter when the new owner spews out misinformation like it is like Pravda.
Interesting he used 2012 as a reference - 2 years before Russia invaded Crimea.
 
Putin sorry about your bridge. I hope you had insurance.
They are slowly cutting off supply routes going into winter. So even with a lull in combat, when it gets cold, the Russians are going to find it more difficult to supply their troops with the basics.

For a Russian soldier you also start to get worried about being cut off with your back against water. Psychologically it increases that feeling of being trapped.
 
Wouldn't it be interesting if Chechnya decided to revolt again with the Russian and Chechen military busy in Ukraine?
Chechnya, Georgia...if you were thinking you had a chance, now would be it.

The nuclear threat is always there but the Russian Federation is a decrepit power. The nuclear weapons are useless for power projection without having a conventional threat to go along with them. For countries that are in the near Russian sphere, Russia's bark is far louder than their bite has proven to be.

There is a huge swath of territory that just opened up across Central Asia that is going to be up for grabs for influence between the two largest poles of the multipolar world that is opening. China is trying to get in with the Belt and Road Initiative. Russia's influence looks like it should be waning as it will not have the military reach to effectively project true power. The NATO/Western aligned pole should be working on a similar plan to pull those resource rich areas into their sphere. In the process, the Russians are going to be more pinned in than they already are. Either by more Western friendly nations or by the new Asian Hegemon in China.

Even with nuclear weapons, the Russians don't matter much anymore.
 
Chechnya, Georgia...if you were thinking you had a chance, now would be it.

The nuclear threat is always there but the Russian Federation is a decrepit power. The nuclear weapons are useless for power projection without having a conventional threat to go along with them. For countries that are in the near Russian sphere, Russia's bark is far louder than their bite has proven to be.

There is a huge swath of territory that just opened up across Central Asia that is going to be up for grabs for influence between the two largest poles of the multipolar world that is opening. China is trying to get in with the Belt and Road Initiative. Russia's influence looks like it should be waning as it will not have the military reach to effectively project true power. The NATO/Western aligned pole should be working on a similar plan to pull those resource rich areas into their sphere. In the process, the Russians are going to be more pinned in than they already are. Either by more Western friendly nations or by the new Asian Hegemon in China.

Even with nuclear weapons, the Russians don't matter much anymore.
What about chemical and biologic weapons? NBC and ABC news mentioned those last night.
 
What about chemical and biologic weapons? NBC and ABC news mentioned those last night.
Same as nuclear. You become a pariah immediately. They are terrorist weapons that have small impact and in the case of a biological attack in Ukraine, have a real danger of blowback.
 
Wut? One tactical nuke would have serious impact on a battlefield. Multiple would be devastating to the target.
Terrorist bombs kill a bunch of people too but like a terrorist bomb, that is about all they could get out of using WMD. They couldn't occupy the territory after and it is questionable whether they would have the necessary equipment to even pass through the territory.

Nuclear weapons are virtually useless beyond going out with a bang IMO.
 
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