Posts about the coronavirus.

Discussion in 'IU Football Board' started by E.Z.Rider, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. E.Z.Rider

    E.Z.Rider Moderator
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    If you want to talk about the coronavirus I think we can allow it here since football is on hold, but, lets keep it to one thread and if you want to make it political you will be deleted.
     
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  2. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    I might hang around the water cooler a little bit. But since there’s no sports to talk about I’ll see everybody in August.
     
  3. Radio Zero

    Radio Zero Sophomore
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    Have a great summer vacation, man! Sorry about all the vitriol I was hurling at you on the hoops board.
     
  4. Daydreamer

    Daydreamer Moderator
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    IU is extending virtual classes and remote work for the rest of the semester. Little 5 is postponed. Can’t see that happening if no one will be around.
    I think this is a better choice than sending the students back home all around the nation, then bringing them all back together. My wife is going to get tired of me, though..
    Hopefully this will get us through the worst of this and the world can get back to normal by fall semester.

    Edit- Little 5 is cancelled.
     
    4 Daydreamer, Mar 15, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
  5. Kelly_32

    Kelly_32 All-Big Ten
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    Am email we received today from our son’s doctor...

    In light of the latest Corona virus concerns, it is appropriate that we reach out to our patients to discuss the current situation—how to protect yourself and your family, how to deal with the virus, and how to avoid spreading it to others.

    First, a word on the virus itself. When the viral outbreak began in Wuhan, China, it appeared to have a death rate approaching 20%, similar to previous outbreaks of this virus in the forms of SARS and MERS. It very rapidly appeared to mutate into a far less deadly form. This is typical of viruses that spread easily; it is not in their interest to kill their host. What we know now from China, Italy and South Korea, is that there is a susceptible group of people in which the virus can be deadly. Children appear to be completely spared from mortality from this virus—it appears to be a much more benign disease. The virus appears to become more deadly in older populations. The mortality begins to rise after age 50 and is much greater in the elderly (14.8% in persons over 80 in China). The key element with any of these numbers is testing. If you don’t test everyone, you don’t know the true incidence and mortality. China only confirmed about 45,000 cases out of 87,000 suspected cases and their overall mortality rate was 2.4%. South Korea had a more aggressive testing program, and their overall mortality rate was 0.7% (7/1000). It appears that 80% of people that get this virus have no or minimal symptoms. Obviously, with age comes medical conditions for many people. Outside of age, other risk factors appear to be cardiovascular disease, respiratory conditions (asthma, COPH, chronic bronchitis), people with immune system issues including those on chemotherapy, type II diabetes, being male, and use of ACE inhibitors (like lisinopril) to treat blood pressure.

    You can protect yourself, your family, and those around you by using some simple hygiene type steps. First, if you have symptoms, stay at home and isolate yourself from others. Google will (hopefully) have a website soon with an algorithm to determine whether you should be tested. Frequent handwashing (with soap and water), coughing into a tissue, avoiding touching your face, keeping at least 6 feet away from anyone that has symptoms can all help with spread. If you are on airplane or something similar, wiping down the surfaces near you might help. Here is some general advice to support your immune system. From an integrative point of view, it is important to have adequate vitamins C, A, and D. Most of us can tolerate 5,000 mg of vitamin C (2500mg twice a day). If loose stools/diarrhea develop, back down on the dose (I use the sodium ascorbate form not ascorbic acid, available through Amazon) I would also use 8-10,000 units of vitamin A (not beta-carotene) and 5000 units of vitamin D per day. I would avoid herbs that directly stimulate the immune system—the deaths from this virus are because the immune system gets overstimulated (cytokine storm). There have been reports from China using 3-15,000mg of IV vitamin C daily to successfully treat persons that were hospitalized. eating a healthy diet, maintaining optimal hydration, adequate sleep, fresh air, exercise, avoiding sugar/carbs, as they stun the immune system for 5-7 hours may all help and will not harm. Lastly, I would like to remind you of the importance of minimizing stress which can negatively impact the immune system. Take time to relax, deep breathing, mediation, prayer, exercise, or what brings you comfort.

    Should you become sick, increase the vitamin C to more than double per dose and increase to every 2 hours while awake. If diarrhea, you can cut the dose or use liposomal C (doesn’t cause diarrhea). The point is to push your vitamin C level to the limit you can tolerate. Because we don’t make vitamin C, we have to count on supplementation to meet our needs; and this is one of the best ways to ensure adequate doses to match the increased need of vitamin C during illness. The studies in China used 50-200mg per Kg of body weight per day.

    These are protocols Dr. Neu has used for other viral infections. Because this is a novel (new) virus, we don’t know if it will respond or not:

    Vitamin A Retinol/retinoic acid (NOT beta carotene)
    – Adults: 150,000 IU/day for four days for adults (not pregnant or breast-feeding women)
    – Children 25-50 pounds: 40,000 IU/day for four days
    – Children 50-100 pounds: 80,000 IU/day for four days

    Vitamin D3
    – Adults: —50,000 IU/day for four days
    – Children 25-50 pounds: 10,000 IU/day for four days
    – Children: 50-100 pounds: 25,000 IU/day for four days
    Note: Both Vitamin A and D are fat-soluble vitamins. They can build up in the body. These doses are NOT meant to be taken for longer than four days at time. If you need to repeat the doses, seek advice from your physician.
     
  6. jsenleo

    jsenleo Junior
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    I went to high school with the gal who was the first death in Indiana from COVID-19. She passed away around 10:30AM this morning at Indianapolis Community East hospital. She was 67 year old; was not in the best of health and someone I knew, not very well, but well enough to be friends with on FB. She posted on FB last Wednesday, when she went to Community East for what she thought might be pneumonia. Two days later, a relative posted on her account that she was on a ventilator and diagnosed with COVID-19. Sadly, she's now gone and it really has made the Corona virus very real for me. Everyone, please be safe. Stay at home and away from the public as much as possible and wash your hands frequently. God Bless, to all
     
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  7. Daydreamer

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    Very sorry about your friend. Thank you for putting this in perspective for us. Hopefully the extreme precautions work but we may all know someone who doesn’t survive before it’s over.

    Stay safe everyone.
     
  8. mushroomgod_1

    mushroomgod_1 All-Big Ten
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    Here are some questions/comments that come to mind for anyone who knows or thinks he knows.

    Regarding the statements of high level health officials in Ohio & Indiana: It seems improbable to me that 100000 or 75000 people in Ohio/Indiana could 'be infected' or 'have the virus' with so few confirmed cases & so few deaths. I understand the timeline and the lack of adequate testing procedures and the fact that some people show no or few symptoms. It stills seems mathematically improbable to me given what we've seen from the virus in Washington state & in Italy.

    Which makes the comments from Kelly's doc about mutating virus(es) (less deadly) interesting. Perhaps the virus they're seeing in Washington, in Italy, and in Indiana are all different animals?
     
  9. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    Not sure why you see those numbers are improbable. Prior to this week, there had been minimal testing. Many high-profile people, who actually had access to testing (e.g. the Jazz players, Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson, the CPAC attendee, etc.) tested positive. So did an unknown guy in a nursing home in a small town in Kansas who hadn't been anywhere. This suggests to me that the virus is everywhere and, once we see figures related to more widespread testing, I think the numbers are going to be staggering. People need to be smart, considerate of others, and keep some distance - - even if they're asymptomatic.
     
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  10. TMFT

    TMFT Benchwarmer
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    I agree.

    If my roof leaks, I call a roofer and listen. If my check engine light comes on, I go to my mechanic and listen. If I get arrested, I call my cousin June Bug & don't snitch.

    So if epidemiologists & infectious disease experts tell me that if we don't put a lid on this thing in short order that 100k or more in the US could die, I'm going to sacrifice my Spring Break plans and assume they know more than me about this kind of thing.

    Unfortunately, the only two kinds of people on social media right now are doomsday preppers or media conspiracy theorists.

    So in the words of Noah's neighbor, "I think it's letting up."
     
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  11. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    Yes. Incredible that there are still coronavirus deniers out there. And it's fueled by influential people, such as the Governor of Oklahoma, doing arrogant, stupid and selfish things like posting picture of themselves at crowded venues and seemingly boasting about it.

    I was at the grocery store last night and I had a guy in line behind me literally breathing down my neck. I'm not a germaphobe, but I wanted to ask the guy what planet he was living on.
     
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  12. vesuvius13

    vesuvius13 All-Big Ten
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    Washington state had at one point 40/41 deaths from nursing homes. Italy has the oldest population in Europe so they were hit harder than other countries. It isn't good to try and draw correlations from numbers without understanding the underlying facts of those numbers. Most people getting the virus have little or no real symptoms so there is no way to know what the numbers really are. We just know it hits the elderly and people with respiratory problems harder and leaves the very young alone.
     
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  13. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    Some out there just aren't treating the COVID19 crisis with the respect and seriousness it deserves...

    If only half the population of the US contracts it (150 million people) and "only" 2 percent of that group die from it..., that's 3 MILLION people...

    That's FIFTY times the yearly flu or Total car accident numbers combined...

    To draw a picture of sorts: losing that number would be tantamount to an enemy dropping nuclear weapons on Chicago and New Orleans and vaporizing over 95% of both cities Total Population...

    It would be nice if the Spring Break or bust(ers) and the you can't keep us out of the bars crowd would get their self involved heads out of their rumps and grasp the reality of the situation...
     
    13 76-1, Mar 17, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
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  14. muubell

    muubell Sophomore
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  15. jsenleo

    jsenleo Junior
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    My friend from high school who passed away from COVID-19 yesterday was not exposed to anyone with the virus, to the best of her knowledge or her husband's knowledge. Her husband has shown symptoms as well and is in quarantine. I've never been one to panic and I'm not panicking now, but my wife is a senior medical tech at the second largest hospital in Indy (and she's been doing this for 40 years) and she is very concerned and more serious about this virus than anything that has preceded it. It's real and it's far more easily transferred that most seem to realize. Things will get worse before we begin to see a downturn in infections. If you don't want to stay at home and think that closing down certain businesses and restricting travel is silly, that's your right, but do me and everyone else a favor and stay away.
     
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  16. TMFT

    TMFT Benchwarmer
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    I have good friend who is an ER nurse at Eskenazi in downtown Indy (used to be Wishard). For those unfamiliar, they've seen some s**t there and don't sweat much of anything as a general rule. She's legit scared of what's coming. It's like the old adage of airplanes & turbulence. If you start getting nervous, look at the flight attendant. If they're serving drinks, you're cool. If they're buckling in, hang on. Spoiler alert, they're buckling in.
     
  17. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    Agreed. So sick of people who don't give a shit about anyone but themselves.
     
  18. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    There are two American ER physicians currently in critical condition from coronavirus. One guy is 70, but the other is in his 40s. These people, and all first responders, are on the front lines and are truly heroic.
     
  19. mushroomgod_1

    mushroomgod_1 All-Big Ten
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    The pictures of St. Pat Day bar celebrations and the actions of the OK Gov were appalling, no doubt about it. As far as going to the beach.....that would seem to be ok if you steer clear of everyone else.....

    edit....I'm not talking about Spring Breakers here....obviously you don't want to be in a car driving 10 hours to get to a beach with 4 strangers....I'm only saying that being outside, in and of itself, shouldn't be an issue.......
     
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  20. turney333

    turney333 All-Big Ten
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    The big issue with doctors and nurses is repeated high level exposures (ie being repeatedly coughed on and/or in close proximity to people at peak contagiousness), essentially giving the virus a huge jump start on their immune systems, which then struggle to catch up. This is why you are seeing pictures of them in respirators and hazmat suits. For them, it’s not about a single exposure, but mitigating the effects of numerous ones.
     
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  21. jsenleo

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    Exactly, my wife is seeing a state of uneasiness - and I think that's putting it lightly - from all levels at her hospital (including the highest ranking doctors and surgeons) that she has never experienced in her 40 years. She says nothing else has even come close to creating this feeling. When she first told me that last week I knew it had to be something that no one should even think about taking lightly.
     
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  22. mushroomgod_1

    mushroomgod_1 All-Big Ten
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    If you use the same analysis with China............1.4B people....if 50% get it and 2% of them die.....14M dead....now, presently China has 3230 reported dead......so that's one hell of a long way from 14M, don't you think? So......on the face of it 3M dead in the US does not seem like a realistic possibility.

    Earlier in this thread there was a post from an MD that mentioned that the virus will get weaker as it mutates, so as not to kill all its hosts. I think that has or will happen.

    Wiki on the 1918 flu epidemic is an interesting read. In that situation, there was a more deadly '2nd wave' due to a mutation to a deadlier form. That was said to be an unusual development caused by the concentration of the very ill in unsanitary hospitals (many in the military). Then there was a less lethal 3rd wave. The author of that article agreed with the MD quoted in the earlier post that "hosts of the more dangerous strains tend to die out", such that the more usual pattern is to mutate to a less lethal form.
     
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  23. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    First, I don't believe much of what the Chinese government puts out. They kept the virus under wraps for a full month...

    My numbers are my personal projections based on what's happening in Italy.

    If you believe both the federal and local governments are completely trashing both the national and local economies just for kicks I don't know what to tell you. This is serious sh*t...

    All that said, I'm hoping your numbers are right and mine are wrong...

    Downplaying the severity of COVID19 and operating like this is just another flu like event is extremely less than helpful (in my opinion)...
     
  24. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    Seems kind of pointless for laypeople to speculate about what the virus will or won't do, since even renowned infectious disease experts aren't sure. It's called the "novel" coronavirus for a reason. It's new. There's no history and no clear idea as to what happens next. I think it's prudent for everyone to err on the side of caution, take it extremely seriously, and be considerate of people around you.
     
  25. mushroomgod_1

    mushroomgod_1 All-Big Ten
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    Here's the reason I think those #s are improbable.

    At the Kirkland Hosp in Washington they had 18-19 deaths before they even knew what hit them. For the most part, they hadn't been tested.....they were just dead in 2-4 days.....so if we had 70000 infected persons in Indiana I would certainly have expected more than 2 deaths at this point.......If just 8% of those 70000 were elderly, we might expect 100 deaths, at least, from that population alone at this point.

    I did see one 'scientific' article that said that 80% of the infections may as yet be undetected.......if that was the case


    Sure.....all we CAN do at this point is guess.

    But the statement that we have 70000 infected people in this State really doesn't make much sense. That would be a death rate to date for that 70000 of .003%...the same death rate if projected for 1/2 the population of the State of Indiana would be 100 people.....whereas 2% of those 3500000 people would be 70000 deaths in Indiana.

    Also, I've seen stats that 80% of those infected have few or no symptoms.....so that would leave 14000 carriers with symptoms......what are the odds that we would have only 2 deaths so far from 14000 C-19 cases with symptoms?

    I'm not claiming I know crap....but something doesn't add up about about those statements by the two top health officials in Indiana & Ohio.
     
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  26. turney333

    turney333 All-Big Ten
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    Also, what is going to get left out of all these numbers is increased mortality for other things (heart attacks, strokes, trauma/accidents, etc) because hospitals don’t have the resources to provide enough care. My brother’s local hospital (east coast) in is already above capacity
     
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  27. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    The big concern is that the hospitals will be swamped and overwhelmed at some point over the next 3-6 weeks... Let's hope it doesn't happen, but what is it they say (?)..., "hope is not a plan"...
     
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  28. turney333

    turney333 All-Big Ten
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    I think the really high numbers are based on doing nothing, no extra precautions (which most places are already well beyond) to reinforce the need for serious actions. Also, While there are legitimate reasons to be skeptical of China, I also think they went on a more restrictive lockdown at an earlier phase
     
    28 turney333, Mar 17, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
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  29. vesuvius13

    vesuvius13 All-Big Ten
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    Too many are giving numbers that are worse case and ignore the reality of what is going on. This virus needs to be taken seriously but fear mongering doesn't help as people see what is happening and then ignore danger as the results don't match reporting. With 95 deaths in the USA I think a more balanced approach to reporting the danger would get more people to take proper protections.
    One thing you are not factoring in with Italy is they are the oldest population in Europe so they are hit harder by this virus than the USA. Projecting numbers without understanding the underlining info isn't producing realistic numbers. This virus isn't something to ignore but is only very dangerous for certain parts of our society as it doesn't hit healthy people as hard as those with health issues or dealing with a number of people in the throes of the virus.
     
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  30. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    All of what you say is most likely correct but the variable you're leaving out is how highly infectious this thing is and how it can exponentially replicate itself in a short period of time from just one carrier being in contact with the general populace...

    In my opinion, just based on what I've read about it over the past two months, we've underestimated it and are behind the curve.

    I'm hoping I'm completely wrong about that...
     
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  31. Daydreamer

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    The reporting is just reporting. What they’re reporting on is coming from the experts. The projections are coming from the experts who are recommending the measures were all being asked to take. Those worst case scenario numbers aren’t given to make people run out and buy all the toilet paper, they’re meant to make sure we all know how bad this could be if we don’t take the proper precautions. No one has said that those numbers are actually going to occur.
     
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  32. vesuvius13

    vesuvius13 All-Big Ten
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    The press is just causing phobia, with many citizens, not reasoned concern because many citizens don't really understand the numbers. Experts often use extreme projections that don't really happen and don't think about the impact they cause by releasing those numbers. We will just have to disagree on the wisdom of what is going on with the efforts of shutting down this virus.
     
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  33. Daydreamer

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    We do disagree but that’s ok. It’s all happening whether we want it to or not. We’ll all just have to the best we can to get through it and hope you get to brag that it wasn’t as bad as projected when it’s all over.
     
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  34. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    Nothing personal, but I think this approach is a dangerous one. "The press" isn't causing phobia, and it's wrong to demonize them. I want credible information, and the only way I'm going to get it is by listening to people like Dr. Fauci and other infectious disease experts. And the only way I have access to people like Dr. Fauci is through the media.

    Sure, if you're 40 and healthy, you're probably not going to get very sick (although, even for that cohort, it's hardly a guarantee). But the virus is highly contagious and even seemingly healthy people can be carriers. It's the epitome of arrogance and selfishness for healthy people to continue to go about their lives as if nothing is happening. And, finally, while ours is a youth-obsessed society, the elderly (and infirm) have value, too. It's not ok if they die from this.

    I actually think it makes a lot of sense to talk about worst-case scenarios. That seems to be the only thing that gets the attention of a lot of people. Otherwise it's business as usual for self-absorbed a-holes who will continue to spread the virus.
     
  35. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    In my mind our choice pretty much comes down to this:
    Will I (or you, or we) chose to be severely inconvenienced for a few weeks with the knowledge that if I do so I'll save the lives of countless of my fellow Americans..., or will I just say "screw em, I'm partying on dude" their troubles are their own..., (which appears to be the attitude that many are taking)...

    Tell you what...: If I lose a wife or a daughter to this thing and I ever find out Im standing next to some clown who decided to go hit the bars or the beaches so they could get their party on and just couldn't be inconvenienced by all this COVID stuff they'll have a lot more to fear from me than any virus...
     
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  36. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    Great points, particularly about being inconvenienced. Again, I think it comes down to arrogance and selfishness. The people who don't give a shit about the possibility of passing the virus to someone else and are still doing whatever the hell they want are the same people who take selfies on the beach following a mandatory hurricane evacuation order, and take their 4-wheel drive vehicles out during a blizzard when government authorities say only essential workers should be on the road.

    There are heroes in the midst of what's happening today - - doctors, nurses and other health care professionals who don't have the luxury of working from home and are putting themselves in harm's way. But a lot of what I'm seeing is America at its worst.
     
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  37. 76-1

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    Looks like the Millennials are on the fast track towards earning the moniker of "the Worst Generation" (Ever)...

    One TV commentator threw out a good idea: When hiring for nearly any job..., or screening for slots in Masters programs and the like..., to check the social media of the potential candidates and automatically disqualify any of them having been shown to be bar hopping and Spring Break partying from late February of 2020 thru the end of May 2020. (Great way to save a lot of wasted interview time...)

    Another good idea:
    Have the local gendarmes of Alabama, Georgia snag these clowns on their way back north (from Spring Break) and throw them in jail for 20 days... Keeps the rest of the population safe and just might teach these youngsters a lesson (but I highly doubt that it would sink in with this group of self absorbed clowns)...
     
    37 76-1, Mar 18, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
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  38. vesuvius13

    vesuvius13 All-Big Ten
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    In no way I am saying to go about your life with no precautions and I am 63 so this isn't about being young but being reasonable about risk without destroying our way of life. They are now saying wearing mask [not the special ones medical people need for this virus] would be more effective than staying home and it was a mistake not to do this early on. Many of us in the older age group have a more balanced approach and haven't gone into a panic because we remember other epidemics and the experts aren't right about everything. I hope this epidemic isn't as bad as many think it will be but there is just not enough info yet to draw worse case scenarios. Change the issues and I think you wouldn't like worst case scenarios.

    Yes I stay away from others and don't get in crowds. I have older friends I care about and hope they take reasonable precautions to protect themselves. There are many things to do rather than to shut down our society but I guess the panic people will win in this debate.
     
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  39. Bowlmania

    Bowlmania Senior
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    Right now preserving life is more important than our way of life.
     
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  40. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    V13, I've always enjoyed your posts and am certain I would like you if we met in person. Feel the same about DanC. My guess is that's its ingrained in both your Very beings Not to Panic. I understand (I have the same set of values) and under nearly any other circumstances I'd completely agree with you (actually I do agree that no one should panic)...

    My opinion is simply that this situation is one where doing what is seemingly too much on the short term is a lot better than having to deal with the worst case scenario over the longer term.

    On a personal basis, I may be a little stupid because the virus doesn't "scare" me... I've been blessed to have survived close to 20 near death experiences over my journey... I don't get easily shook... When the Lord decides I get to come home he'll let me know, could be in the next minute, could be several years from now... I guess I still have more work to do because I'm still here...

    I am concerned, scared, however you want to frame it, for my wife and daughter, both of whom are on the front line of the health care services...

    I'd much rather that many of us be severely inconvenienced than even slightly add to the chances of their losing their lives because we didn't do everything we could to mitigate this pandemic...

    If that's selfish of me then guilty as charged. I know for a Fact that my wife and daughter are worth more to society than a billion of the Party On and screw everyone else crowd...
     
    40 76-1, Mar 18, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
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