Polls - - a week out
- Thread starter Bowlmania
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He's the best and does not bull shit people. His audience is obviously a pro Trump crowd but he gives it straight. In 22 when the early returns started coming in out of VA he was immediately like uh oh pump the breaks this isn't what we want.
He's also said to watch the returns coming out of Pike and Vigo when Indiana closes at 5. Should tell us a lot.
Get that chili prepped. It's going to be a great Tuesday!
Farmers love this gift from the Biden administration
“Net cash farm income is forecast at $154.1 billion in 2024, a decrease of $12 billion (7.2 percent) relative to 2023 in nominal dollars. When adjusted for inflation, 2024 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6 percent) from 2023. Sep 5, 2024” USDA.gov report
Anybody happen with 10% lower income this year? One wonder what paper printed the MSM report about unhappy farmers. Exactly how many farmers did Kamala campaign with over the last three months? California liberals are up there with corn weevils in Iowa. Midwestern farm country is hurting this year. They are hard to poll as they are in the fields this time of year.
So good his polls are banned! Not that he actually runs any polls. That would cost money and would require someone to hire him... Which nobody does.
Guy is a fkn clown. Runs a video on his Twitter feed in front of a fake news room background. Like he's ever set foot in a real studio.
A real pollster would actually be busy this time of year. Instead he just sits on Twitter all day everyday.
They are snapshots of a GUESS made by the pollster. And the pollster can manipulate it to his/her/it desired outcome.
The last IOWA poll number was crazy.
Wow…I wonder if CA has turn in or turnout % for AA or Hispanic voters? Of course LA county is below the state average as is some of the Central Valley counties. This is really without precedent looking at 2020 numbers.
Not sure what you mean. But comparing anything to the 2020 election seems like a waste of time.
I saw her interviewed, she asked what she had to gain by releasing an obviously wrong poll.
Wouldn't that destroy her credibility going forward
Here is the part partisans do not discuss. A poll may be listed as accurate to +-3.5%, the secret is, with 95% confidence.
Nate Silver took pollsters to task for herding, there have to be outliers. Even if the pollster performed brilliantly, there is a 5% chance the poll is wonky.
So that is most likely what happened. Not nefarious activity, just the 5%.
Look up Silver's article. He suggests the odds of PA being within 2 points or so in every single poll is extremely unlikely, something like 1 in 10 million.
The fact her's is probably off is really just proof she did not herd.
I don't think there will be any since Trump is ineligible to run again. However you may see some against Vance.
I would have thought anyone with a brain would have known the number was wrong and did the poll again.
Well that's really not what we want to happen.
Unfortunately I think there are plenty of polls that are conducted and then buried when the results don't fit close to the general narrative/consensus.
No. Abortion and cat ladies galvanized women and throw in a sprinkling of pissed of Puerto Ricans and we are COOKED!!!
I wish I could link some of Tom's charts, because I know most people don't have an hour to watch. But in terms of new registrants since 2020 the modeled Dem advantge of the early vote in PA is 36.2%. That is the highest of any of the batleground states, followed by AZ at 12.3%.
Overall the cumulative modeled Dem advantage for all the battleground states in the early vote is 7.8%. That's keeping with the overall cannibalization of 2020 votes by the GOP, as only about 7% of their early vote total in PA comes from people who didn't vote in 2020 (new voters). And nearly half of the GOP early vote total in PA comes from people who voted on election day in 2020. They've changed their mode of voting, but as of yet there is no evidence that they've increased their share of the overall electorate with new voters...
Yes!!! Legitimate voters will have their votes not counted!!! What a victory for democracy and Constitutionalists. This is how we win. LFG!!!
This is like 2000 when the Gore team didn't want to count military absentee ballots if they weren't received by election day or were missing postmarks (which actually happens a lot with mail from ships) but dated and attested to prior to Election Day. I said, "**** Al Gore" then and I say "**** MAGA" now. if they're sent prior to election day and delayed in the mail they should be counted. They're probably going to disenfranchise military votes and could backfire on them.
States have a reasonable due date that accounts for mail delivery delays. The original reason in many states was to allow for receipt of military absentee ballots because mail from ships and the field take longer than mail from a base in a foreign country. Ship mail routinely takes up to three weeks either way. This is one that actually grinds my gears.
Well the NV SC ruled that mail in ballots can be counted that come in days after the election even if they're not postmarked or you can't read the postmark.
I
Ding ding ding. There will absolutely be overseas military who will not have their votes counted. And these “Republicans” celebrate it. Shameful
Here's a good read on understanding that reported poll numbers are entirely dependent upon the pollster making correct assumptions about the demographics that actually turnout.
Even a small changes in the turnout models greatly change the outcome.
Polling paradox: what actually shapes the numbers?
Likely voters, past voters, demographics and more – how pollsters weight 2024 election poll data matters a great deal.goodauthority.org
So the default is to throw away someone’s vote. That’s your position? True American here.
By the way, that’s not this Georgia case. These are timely mailed votes that are not going to be counted because the GOP always wants less voters.
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