Polls - - a week out
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With the national poll so close in your expert opinion would it be fair to deduce that the EC should be a faintly comfortable win for the good guys?
Follow up question. Are you hearing from any of your insiders, daughtry and others, that there’s a plan in place if msm, abc nbc etc, pull their usual shenanigans and try to declare a winner prematurely?
I’ll of course be watching bill hemmer. One of the few left that aren’t bought and paid for
I am hearing $358 billion fine for each, 6% interest compounding daily from date of infraction until paid. 😂
Edit: and Trump pulls their license.
Yes Trump will easily win the EC. Per NBC they expect Trump to declare victory sometime during the night. He's not making the same mistake again.
I honestly do not remember riots. I remember protests. I remember the “NOOOOOO!” screaming lady on Inauguration Day but no riots that day. The article linked here certainly didn’t describe violence like J6. You have something else, I’ll look at it. I don’t recall seeing election related violence similar to J6 after any other Presidential election in my adult lifetime.
I agree that no one should riot after any election.
It’s called YouTube. There are dozens of videos from media outlets showing protests and riots. You were wrong.
Aloha remembers what he wants to remember.
He has ZERO objectivity when it concerns Trump.
Guy who conducted that poll:No. pre msg trump was leading and Harris has regained. Use google. You’re becoming as ate up as dbm. This is one of many.
Kamala Harris ahead in enough swing states to win, Times poll says
Final survey before the 2024 US election shows the Democrat leading Donald Trump in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsinwww.thetimes.com
Guys, I believe it’s the opposite. Anyone that has been observing what Trump says and does and defend all of it is not objective. Anyone that can entirely dismiss the opinions of good solid Republicans who worked in his first administration that believe he is dangerously unfit is not objective. Anyone that can look at the documents case, which is an egregious case of mishandling of highly classified documents combined with obvious obstruction, and dismiss it as nothing is not objective. I see a lot of people with Trump Devotion Syndrome with ZERO objectivity about Trump. That does not apply to those that see his many flaws and will vote for him regardless, by the way.
I defended Trump several times when he deserved it. I even held my tongue when he deserved criticism. I always temper myself when it comes to our President, but he’s not President and I hope he isn’t again because I completely agree with his former administration officials who say he’s unfit.
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That poll is bat shit crazy. I will say if Trump loses by a wider margin than he did in 2020 it will most likely be because he got trounced in the 65 plus voters…aka the asset class. They have done pretty well the past 4 years and are more shielded from inflation. They have already paid for their big tickets items in life; houses, education, child care, healthcare, and etc.
Ann was bought off. Look at the cross tabs. It's like she only polled the female students at Howard University.
They are both such awful candidates it makes it hard to handicap. Literally every other Republican candidate would have trounced her.
He has pissed off women, many (not all) minorites, does poorly with college educated suburbanites, and does little to reach out to independents.
And yet he may very well win the race.
I'm only 52, but fit with the class you described. My portfolio has done great the last few years. I certainly won't credit all that to Biden, but I simply don't trust Trump not to go crazy on tariffs and isolationism. We aren't perfect, but we are currently damn better off than most economies all things considered.
Do you ever stop and listen to yourself. Literally anyone that does not kiss a$$ to Trump is the enemy. I worry about you when he kicks the bucket. You'll certainly take it harder than Melania.
Trump won. Harris didn’t receive a single vote from the public and when she ran got trounced. She should not have been chosen
Should have been Shapiro, but Dems were stuck with the sitting VP.
I realize he won, which makes me question the soul and intelligence if this country. Literally every other candidate in the R side would have appealed to more people. The lunatics and uneducated are currently in charge and that is scary.
I don’t know that that is true. I and hooky and so many others cannot stand the old Cheney bush types. They’re self dealing war machine evil people. Won’t get my vote. So who would run. I’d vote Desantis. But he got crushed.
And for the left why was Shapiro who is just smart and normal passed over. Is the party still run by the woke fringe? Harris is a moron. Walz a woke creep. No sane person could think they’re better than Shapiro. So maybe the Dems are still stuck with identity politics and divided too. Not sure
We need a way to bust up the two party system. I’m becoming more and more convinced of that
I don't know about who was most accurate in 2020 polls,and much has happened since then to shift the political landscape. Dems and women in particular have been grossly underestimated since Dobbs, starting with women in Kansas turning out to kill the attempt at an abortion ban. I do know that Atlas INtel predicted that Walker would win GA, but that is their only poll I could find...
But the most accurate pollster in 2022 was Marist...
"The 2022 Midterms are in the past and the Marist Poll proved to be one of the most successful polling organizations with its accuracy. In the final battleground state polls, the Marist Poll went six for six in predicting the correct winner of each race. "
Marist Poll’s Success in the Midterms — MARIST CIRCLE
The 2022 Midterms are in the past and the Marist Poll proved to be one of the most successful polling organizations with its accuracy. In the final battleground state polls, the Marist Poll went six for six in predicting the correct winner of each race. “The reason this was the best y
www.maristcircle.com
Not saying she's infallable as she could always be wrong. But her track record is pretty solid
Also notice that none of the children trying to discredit her as a "never-Trumper" were making that childish claim in June when this same poll showed Trump up 18 over Biden...
Btw, Selzers poll would have to be off by 10 for Trump to match his 2020 numbers in Iowa, when he lost the election...
Is there a nightmare trend for Trump with older white momen in the Midwest?
While the items you mention are a piece of the puzzle, the reason I've heard most often for why Harris is winning with women over 65 is abortion. Specifically that these women remember the coathanger days, and after that horror they lived the majority of their lives under Roe v Wade, which basically amounted to a women to have the right to control her own body.
Obviously these women are not worried about protecting that right for themselves, but they have daughters and granddaughters. They are incensed that a right they took for granted is being stripped away from other members of their family.
Yes it's a huge issue for younger women, but there is something about a rollback of what people consider basic human rights, that is motivating older women as well. There really is a huge gender gap surrounding this issue, and MAGA world lives in a bubble and don't really comprehend how deeply this issue resonates...
What if trump is right. About everything. That short term pain spurs independence by way of more manufacturing here. Gas here. Meds here. Consumer products. We rely on ourselves. And what if in keeping protectionism is right. How many countries cite our presence, our ubiquitous presence, as what incites them. ME etc. What if Europe is compelled to stand on its own. our world hegemony ends and actually gives rise to less conflict
I don’t know if any of that is true or would play out like that but….
Curious your thoughts on Speaker Johnson saying if Trump won they'd probably try and repeal the Chips Act (he's since said he misheard the question and apologized for his answer).
I like the idea about a lot of what you said and wish it could work. Just not sure we could find the balance that would prevent crazy inflation. We are drunk in cheap foreign labor, especially in consumer products.
I’m just asking questions. I don’t know the answers nor do I know enough about that stuff to even be able to guess as to the implications and consequences. As to china I always hear they’re a war threat etc but when they fill 85 percent of our wal marts with their shit I don’t understand how. Why they’d risk that etc
He needs to worry about controlling his caucus for the upcoming government funding fiasco.
He screwed the pooch on the last one
That doesn't disprove what I'm saying Cosmic. When the economy is going well for people, other issues become reasons why they vote, such as abortion. When the economy isn't working for them, the main issue becomes their pocketbooks. Asset holders (tend to be older) were the winners of all the Covid stimulus.
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Life has been pretty good for a lot of older people since Covid. Biden, Trump, Government, and the FED deserve a lot of credit for that. When governments intervene, they start choosing winners and losers. They chose older people and asset holders at the detriment of the middle/working class, poor, and young. It was the Boomers last f#ck you to the future of the country.
One of the constants of the last 44 years has been the democrats push for early voting using mail in ballots or in person as same day registrations and so on and so forth. This had lead to early voting becoming a greater % of the total electorate every year since I started watching in 1980 until perhaps 2024. The numbers are not in yet but it’s very very possible as many states are down by large numbers.
The last 44 years of increased early voting has taught us that the best way to maximize your vote is to push early voting. In fact early voting would much lower then year if the GOP had started pushing and pushing it hard. We have seen that in Georgia which is one of the few states that will stop 2020 early vote numbers. Oh yes some Election Day voters have decided to move to an early day but it’s been stunning how many voters from rural Trump counties and strong suburban areas have been non-voters. In many strong Trump counties 25% of the early voters have been “non-‘voters”. One of the little talked about facts of the 2020 campaign is that urban turnout exceeded the rural turnout in many states. Pubs fought the turnout battle in 2020 with one hand behind their back in states like Georgia, MN, PA, WI and NC among others. This did not happen this year in Georgia as they are clearly bringing new voters while D turnout in lagging. The number of AA voters are down from 2020 even as overall turnout is up. You can see similar lower turnout in lower voting in Richmond, Miami, medium AA cities in Georgia, AA population centers in NC, Milwaukee, Memphis, Detroit as well as Las Vegas and elsewhere. Younger voters are down. On the other the GOP added 25,000 new voters in Nevada, 40,000 in the last few months in NC, at least that much in Pennsylvania. In Arizona over the last three months the GOP has netted 47,000 more new voter registrants than the Ds have. Of course other states don’t us party registrations but what would make them different as far as like make voters stepping to vote R? Turnout is down in D areas during early voting in a lot of states while either GOP numbers are up or we are seeing relative improvement to their 2020 numbers. Oh I thought in 2020 pushing early voting and getting to the polls did not matter but it does
The last 44 years of increased early voting has taught us that the best way to maximize your vote is to push early voting. In fact early voting would much lower then year if the GOP had started pushing and pushing it hard. We have seen that in Georgia which is one of the few states that will stop 2020 early vote numbers. Oh yes some Election Day voters have decided to move to an early day but it’s been stunning how many voters from rural Trump counties and strong suburban areas have been non-voters. In many strong Trump counties 25% of the early voters have been “non-‘voters”. One of the little talked about facts of the 2020 campaign is that urban turnout exceeded the rural turnout in many states. Pubs fought the turnout battle in 2020 with one hand behind their back in states like Georgia, MN, PA, WI and NC among others. This did not happen this year in Georgia as they are clearly bringing new voters while D turnout in lagging. The number of AA voters are down from 2020 even as overall turnout is up. You can see similar lower turnout in lower voting in Richmond, Miami, medium AA cities in Georgia, AA population centers in NC, Milwaukee, Memphis, Detroit as well as Las Vegas and elsewhere. Younger voters are down. On the other the GOP added 25,000 new voters in Nevada, 40,000 in the last few months in NC, at least that much in Pennsylvania. In Arizona over the last three months the GOP has netted 47,000 more new voter registrants than the Ds have. Of course other states don’t us party registrations but what would make them different as far as like make voters stepping to vote R? Turnout is down in D areas during early voting in a lot of states while either GOP numbers are up or we are seeing relative improvement to their 2020 numbers. Oh I thought in 2020 pushing early voting and getting to the polls did not matter but it does
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