The consistent reduction in the rate of inflation is a trend.
No inflation last month
- Thread starter Marvin the Martian
- Start date
The consistent reduction in the rate of inflation is a trend.
So just forget the last 3.5 years? Not. Election time Mark, sh!t will be cool for a bit except the fact that Joe is done man. The guy needs help.
1 month, look at a graph since June '22.
I lived through the Ford and Carter years. Reagan and the Fed had to throw us into a recession to finally break inflation. You kids have been spoiled. A 3 or 4% inflation rate is nothing.
Restaurants and bars packed where I live. Regional airport parking lot is stuffed as it seems everyone is on vacation.
Houses being built, jobs to be had, and my various investments continue to set new highs. Things aren't as bad as some of you make it. I know some are struggling for sure, same as always.
I'm better off than I was four years ago, too, but look, I don't give a **** about the DOW. I give a **** about how much food costs.
Scientist you say? Hmm...
Remember when you didn't net inflation against stock returns and were excited about 1.5% real returns per annum?
Thanks to the Fed. Do you really think all of the increased spending (see Infra Bill) helped ease inflation? It sure wasn't Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
No, not at all. And calling the infrastructure bill the Inflation Reduction Act was bullshit IMO. And yes, it looks like Powell has done a great job threading the needle.
I agree, the trend is positive. However, the biggest counter is the fact that Real Wages were higher in Q1 2020 than they are as of the latest reading (Q1 2024).
Coach, ..... We've missed the tourney for multiple yrs... we can't just "leave it alone". The free cheese will only make it worse, but we have to bring some stuff home again. We can not depend on others whom hate us, for our essential goods. Or any goods at all actually. F them.
Get our people out of Burger king for $20/ hr and into welding for $40. ... but not a worthless law degree where they have to mule crank on the street corner, carrying a glock 40.
It is amazing that the US economy is so stable when just left alone.
We take in so much revenue, it's ridiculous to have additional spending. I wish Trump (I know a Democrat won't do it) would conduct a comprehensive budget review and start prioritizing spending and moving money from ineffective/failing programs to programs that actually are effective.
You know - like the average American does with their own budget. Democrats are like a wife with a credit card in her own name......
Republicans spend just as much. But that’s why I got so mad at stuffshot. Well what is trump going to do. What plans. Do very little! I mean this is the benefit of divided gov. Biden got in and had control of everything and implemented disastrous policies. Now years of divided gov and things are on the mend.
I wish I could like this more than just once
The last 3.5 years didn't happen in a vacuum. We didn't get to hit the reset button on Trump's cratering of the economy during COVID just because Biden was elected. Whoever was in the Oval Office in January 2021 was going to have to clean up that disaster and there were always going to be long term economic consequences regardless of whether or not Biden or Trump were in office.
Anyone who doesn't acknowledge that isn't having an honest conversation.
When you look at required spending because of legislation passed 60 years ago by a Democrat Congress, I don't think it's close. And I don't think discretionary spending by Republicans is anywhere close to Democrat spending,
I could be wrong, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Maybe a good task for you AI whiz kids.
The Republicans have controlled the House and Senate with an R President multiple times (Bush x2, Trump x1) and have done nothing to curb spending, shrink the size of government, or reform any of that legislation from the past. They only propose those things when they're in the minority.
To be fair, Democrats are similar when they control all 3, with the only notable exception I can think of being ACA.
W was fighting 2 wars off budget, which made the deficit climb. Trump was saddled with Covid and, not that I agree with it, but spent to keep the nation from economic disaster. I don't think his first 2 years with a Republican Congress exploded the budget. His last 2 years was when spending went way up.
But it goes a lot farther back farther than that. Again, the required spending put in by Democrat legislation 60 years ago with LBJ and hug Democrat Congressional majorities is causing most of the overspending today.
I would argue that the data points to a sharp increase in non-defense discretionary spending under GWB.
PDF Download
A few quotes:
To make matter worse, President Bush’s enactment of the Medicare prescription drug bill
will make the coming fiscal crunch from entitlements much worse. Congress and
President Bush enacted a new multi-billion entitlement program in December 2003 even
though the budget was already deep into deficit and entitlements have huge long-term
financing shortfalls. This fiscally reckless act was the biggest expansion in Medicare
since its inception.
Figure 6 shows that annual growth of discretionary outlays had accelerated during
President Bush’s terms. In fact, during most of the Clinton years, discretionary spending
was not or was barely growing.
President Bush outspent both Reagan and Clinton. President Reagan boosted defense
outlays by 41 percent during his terms, but he also cut real nondefense outlays by 10
percent. Overall, total discretionary spending increased by 15.8 percent during Reagan’s
terms. During Clinton’s first term, real discretionary spending actually decreased by 8
percent. During his second term, with the Republicans in control of Congress, it increased
by 8.8 percent. Over Clinton’s eight years then, real discretionary spending increased by
0.1 percent. During his two terms in office, however, President Bush increased real
discretionary spending by 44 percent.
Money quote of the opinion in the conclusion:
Republicans often claim to be the party of smaller government. Many Republicans would
express support for Ronald Reagan’s observation: “Growth, prosperity and ultimately
human fulfillment, are created from the bottom up, not the government down.”2
Unfortunately, after Republicans are elected to political office, they tend to fall into the
Washington trap of assuming that more federal spending will solve the nation’s
problems.
If you want to have an honest conversation, stop with the Trump catered the economy bullshit. Unless, you’re trying to argue there shouldn’t have been any shut downs or restrictions (or very little).
Just an FYI about Clinton's 'first term' - The Democract Congress was blown out after the first 2 years by the Contract With America. Republicans took over and forced him to declare that 'big government is over'. The miniscule increase in discretionary spending under Clinton is entirely due to a Republican Congress his last 6 years.
Now do Obama.
Agree 100% on your point about Clinton's first term. Now, why couldn't Republicans do that when they controlled the whole thing for 6 years under 2 different republican administrations?
Obama is a Democrat. Democrats don't campaign and fundraise on the idea that they're going to cut spending and reduce the size of government. Republicans do. Dems run and fundraise on the opposite, more spending, bigger government.
He's still not going to "get it" unless you show him the graph. He's like a 5th grader, only denser.
Is it trending in any one direction, since early 2022?
Yes
Is that direction up or down?
Down
This is for the CPI.
With the latest data, it goes to 3.0
Hint: 3.0 is lower than 3.6
Isn't math great?
Let me know when we have 20% deflation. 25% at the grocery and mortgage rates drop 3%.
If that's what you want, then you're hoping for another Great Recession -- or worse.
Prices and wages have risen at roughly the same rate in the last three years. When inflation drops from 9% to 3%, that's a good thing. No, we won't see prices going back down to 2019 levels, but neither will wages. The sky has not fallen.
Wage growth has caught up with inflation.
Wage growth vs inflation U.S. 2024 | Statista
The rate of inflation overtook the growth of wages in April 2021. High rates of inflation means that consumers are seeing a decrease in purchasing power
www.statista.com
I think it's been substantially more than that but I'm not going to take the time. We're on SS and I have a low wage part time job. My wages have increased by 24% since Jan 2021 and we've gotten our SS COLAs every year, of course. I was ever so slightly cash flow positive in Jan 2021, and still am today, even with a handful of (relatively) big ticket expenses.
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But real wages are still lower than they were four years ago (see my chart). That’s how people feel, even if it has improved the past 18 months or so.
Trump cratered the economy because Biden was elected? That’s a moonbat conspiracy I’ve not heard. What specifically did Trump do to intentionally crater the economy?
The ACA curbed spending? It certainly did not. The CBO score was cooked with assumptions which never happened. The “Cadillac tax” never happened, as people like me predicted. The mandate and penalties didn’t last either. The ACA is increasing deficits and debt.
Yet the deficit trended back down during the GWB years reaching $160B the year before the financial crisis. We’d do cartwheels for a $160B deficit now.
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