Haley is excellent in . . .
- Thread starter Aloha Hoosier
- Start date
That's why I said that Trump's smartest move was not attending the debates.
By mid-to-end 2021, most normal people had figured out that Trump was a disaster because of the Jan 6th crap, the constant "stolen election" narrative that made him look like a sore loser, and the documents raid.
While Trump has still campaigned and continued his ways, he's not been front and center as much as he used to be (even with CNN doing their best to try). It wont be until he wins the nomination in a couple of months that the media circus will really put him back in the crosshairs (at least, to the general public that doesn't really follow politics until the election year itself).
People have had two years to forget about just how bad 2021 was for Trump. I don't think Trump's support has grown. It's just going to come down to more of whether Biden's support has waned enough that people stay home.
Yep and the typical independents that voted for him the first time are a pretty non engaging bunch. You won’t see them at the primaries, doing polls or debating the Trump clan. They will vote for whomever is running against him.
E Jean Carroll for one. His other crimes also had victims if you cared to do any actual research
I think you mean jealous of his wife
The problem is the 2020 and prior elections were the most historically inaccurate polls. The mid cycle was the most accurate in decades. Bottom line is. Never trust a poll especially off Twitter.
This is not normal politics:
Truth Social has been a major boost. Trump has posted some pretty crazy shit on there but it doesn’t get the same play as it would if it was posted on X.
Stay on Truth social Don!
Historically inaccurate in that they underestimated Trump's support. Remember ABCNews Biden +17 in Wisconsin 😅
That’s exactly what I’m talking about. The mid term cycle was actually accurate but the poll you are citing is some rando that made his own poll. Hell I could do that.
Not me. I watched America elect Clinton after multiple women accused him of rape and/or sexual assault and then watch him use his position of power to have sex with a 19 year old.
Neither party cares about anything but power and money. That's it.
Gayest music line of all time. All the guys that never served get their rocks off on that line. My buddies that served roll their eyes.
That's not exactly what polling in both Iowa and New Hampshire suggests...
A lot of Haley's support comes from Independents and what I'd call Aloha Republicans, essentially never-Trumpers...
Politico has an interesting piece this morning about how those Haley voters are backing either Haley or Biden.
"It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump. And it’s a dynamic that has been on vivid display as the campaign shifted this week to New Hampshire."
Trump is bleeding moderate support. It could cost him the 2024 election.
A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.
And while polls are polls and some people who get polled may not even vote, it's a little different when you take an entrance poll of actual voters in the polling station or caucus location as they enter to actually vote.
There were only 115,000 or so Iowa Pubs who braved the cold to caucus last week. In a state of nearly 800,000 registered Republicans that's already a huge minority, and it suggest a possible malaise within the GOP (at least in Iowa) where nearly 180,000 caucused in 2016.
Sure it's cold, but it's always cold in Iowa at caucus time. But the staggering number you really can't overemphasize the importance of is that among these GOP caucus stalwarts, the people most motivated to come out and actually vote, fully 35% said that they would consider s felony conviction of Trump as disqualifying.
And I imagine that number will be higher in NH, because up until Oct anyone could switch and vote in either Primary. So there will be a crossover vote for Haley, and most of those people will answer yes to a felony disqualifying Trump.
But even the Koch brothers (who back Haley) released a statement to their supporters saying that despite what public polling suggests their own internal polling shows that even without a conviction Trump would lose to Biden in every battleground state. And a felony conviction of Trump would turn those hard fought victories into a landslide...
How do you know you're on the wrong side of a political analysis? When you're on the same side with dbm,ftw, DANC etc, and I'm on the opposite side. I don't remember any of them being right about a single "contested" issue/race since 2016, and not a single poll dbm posted heading into the 2022 midterms had the slightest bit of relevance.
On the other hand I predicted right after the Kansas abortion vote that abortion, not the economy, would be the singlemost defining issue of the midterms. You have to look at the numbers and they were astounding...
Biden got roughly 41% of the vote in Kansas in 2020, in an election that attracted about 1,342,000 voters.The anti-abortion side in Aug 2022 got 40% in an election where 1,929,000 + voted. That means the attempt to enact a constitutional amendment banning abortion drew over 600,000 more voters than the Presidential election.
And while Trump won comfortably in 2020 (56-41%), the pro choice amendment (with far more voting) won by a more significant margin of 59-40% a mere two years later. That was the first of sevral special election wins for the pro-choice position leading up to the 2022 midterms.
And yet a gaggle of political neophytes were on here posting daily about a red tsunami and predicting the pro-choice party was going to lose 40-50 seats in elections that were set for only 3 months after those type of results in Ruby Red Kansas. Now the same folks are on here posting meaningless public polls 9 months out, predicting a Trump victory and saying a conviction and his conduct on the trail and in court won't matter to Independents?
Some people will never learn...
That's not exactly what polling in both Iowa and New Hampshire suggests...
A lot of Haley's support comes from Independents and what I'd call Aloha Republicans, essentially never-Trumpers...
Politico has an interesting piece this morning about how those Haley voters are backing either Haley or Biden.
"It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump. And it’s a dynamic that has been on vivid display as the campaign shifted this week to New Hampshire."
Trump is bleeding moderate support. It could cost him the 2024 election.
A whole swath of GOP voters appears firmly committed to not voting for Trump in November.www.yahoo.com
And while polls are polls and some people who get polled may not even vote, it's a little different when you take an entrance poll of actual voters in the polling station or caucus location as they enter to actually vote.
There were only 115,000 or so Iowa Pubs who braved the cold to caucus last week. In a state of nearly 800,000 registered Republicans that's already a huge minority, and it suggest a possible malaise within the GOP (at least in Iowa) where nearly 180,000 caucused in 2016.
Sure it's cold, but it's always cold in Iowa at caucus time. But the staggering number you really can't overemphasize the importance of is that among these GOP caucus stalwarts, the people most motivated to come out and actually vote, fully 35% said that they would consider s felony conviction of Trump as disqualifying.
And I imagine that number will be higher in NH, because up until Oct anyone could switch and vote in either Primary. So there will be a crossover vote for Haley, and most of those people will answer yes to a felony disqualifying Trump.
But even the Koch brothers (who back Haley) released a statement to their supporters saying that despite what public polling suggests their own internal polling shows that even without a conviction Trump would lose to Biden in every battleground state. And a felony conviction of Trump would turn those hard fought victories into a landslide...
How do you know you're on the wrong side of a political analysis? When you're on the same side with dbm,ftw, DANC etc, and I'm on the opposite side. I don't remember any of them being right about a single "contested" issue/race since 2016, and not a single poll dbm posted heading into the 2022 midterms had the slightest bit of relevance.
On the other hand I predicted right after the Kansas abortion vote that abortion, not the economy, would be the singlemost defining issue of the midterms. You have to look at the numbers and they were astounding...
Biden got roughly 41% of the vote in Kansas in 2020, in an election that attracted about 1,342,000 voters.The anti-abortion side in Aug 2022 got 40% in an election where 1,929,000 + voted. That means the attempt to enact a constitutional amendment banning abortion drew over 600,000 more voters than the Presidential election.
And while Trump won comfortably in 2020 (56-41%), the pro choice amendment (with far more voting) won by a more significant margin of 59-40% a mere two years later. That was the first of sevral special election wins for the pro-choice position leading up to the 2022 midterms.
And yet a gaggle of political neophytes were on here posting daily about a red tsunami and predicting the pro-choice party was going to lose 40-50 seats in elections that were set for only 3 months after those type of results in Ruby Red Kansas. Now the same folks are on here posting meaningless public polls 9 months out, predicting a Trump victory and saying a conviction and his conduct on the trail and in court won't matter to Independents?
Some people will never learn...
GOAT is mostly right though that a conviction won't even move the needle for majority of voters.
Anyone that is still pro-Trump does not care if he is convicted for one of the following reasons.
1) Because any crime is totally fine for Trump
2) they won't believe anything that doesn't come from Trump himself because it is just fake news otherwise.
Anyone that is anti-trump wouldn't be voting for him at this point regardless of conviction.
That probably leaves less than 10% (probably less than 5%) of voters that would be swayed by a conviction.
What is crazy though is Republicans used the excuse that they didn't impeach Trump because the legal system/courts should handle it instead. When it goes to the courts, they parrot Trump that it is just a partisan witch hunt when it was their idea to begin with. Their excuses for being spineless might actually make sense if they could just stick to the same excuse.
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