Goat's POLS nerd thread

[mjvcaj]

NYT forecasting Trump now to win, despite Hilary 2% ahead in popular vote? I'm not sure how accurate this is and it continues to change, but quite interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/fo...region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region

 

[UncleMark]

Right now I feel like I did when I saw the plane hit the second tower.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

It apears that when we build the wall it will go south of Texas, north of New Mexico and TBD whether Arizona adopts Spanish in all transactions or not.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

NM to Clinton. Could end up being very important.

 

[mjvcaj]

This is the great last gasp of the white male dominance. He's losing women, he's losing Hispanics, he's losing blacks, he's losing Asians. But every election the percent of white men goes down and the number of elections one can only win that demographic has to be limited.

The problem for HRC is her lack of ability to actually win over women.

From 538:

 

[Sope Creek]

I should have pulled money out of the market yesterday.

You have money invested?

 

[Sope Creek]

Everyone knew Virginia was "must-win" for Clinton, but very few people considered what it means if she barely sneaks it out. Squeezing out a last-second win in Virginia won't mean much if it comes with losses in FL, GA, NC, MI...

GA was never in play, really. Michigan is the lynch pin . . . .

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

You have money invested?

Just enough that a Trump win will register on my bottom line.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Right now I feel like I did when I saw the plane hit the second tower.

Well, I still think HRC is going to be the next president.

But I do hope the political establishment sees how well Trump has done and realizes just how much of the electorate they've lost touch with on critical issues.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Well, I still think HRC is going to be the next president.

But I do hope the political establishment sees how well Trump has done and realizes just how much of the electorate they've lost touch with on critical issues.

You are just superstitious and afraid to jinx Trump. Barring a shock in Arizona, I think he's going to squeeze it out.

 

[Hank Reardon]

Well, I still think HRC is going to be the next president.

But I do hope the political establishment sees how well Trump has done and realizes just how much of the electorate they've lost touch with on critical issues.

I agree. The best result is a Hillary win, and a complete rethink on the part of the Republican Party. A Trump win is a disaster for Republicans.

 

[mjvcaj]

Well, I still think HRC is going to be the next president.

But I do hope the political establishment sees how well Trump has done and realizes just how much of the electorate they've lost touch with on critical issues.

Of course they won't. These egomaniacs are 100% out of touch with normal Americans.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

You are just superstitious and afraid to jinx Trump. Barring a shock in Arizona, I think he's going to squeeze it out.

No, that's not it. He has a gauntlet to run and I'm just doubtful he'll be able to do it.

I do think he's doing much better than Romney did -- but, then, he's also got weaker competition.

 

[twenty02]

I should have pulled money out of the market yesterday.

I think you are safe. She's going to pull out VA.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I think you are safe. She's going to pull out VA.

See?

 

[mike41703]

See?

He had to win way too many toss ups. She's fine.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I think you are safe. She's going to pull out VA.

Virginia doesn't matter given NC, OH, and MI.

 

[UncleMark]

I think you are safe. She's going to pull out VA.

Yes, that looks better now. But NC and FL both may be lost. She needed one of those. And now MI looks shaky.

I started feeling flu-ish this afternoon, cut out of work around 3:30, came home, and went to bed for a while.

Still feel sick. But I don't know if it's the bug or the returns.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Look, if they split these "too close" states down the middle, Clinton wins. Simple as that. The problem is that some of these "too close" states were supposed to be safe blue, and since toss-ups tend to move together as a group, they could just as easily all go for one or the other as they could split.

 

[SuperHoosierFan]

Yes, that looks better now. But NC and FL both may be lost. She needed one of those. And now MI looks shaky.

I started feeling flu-ish this afternoon, cut out of work around 3:30, came home, and went to bed for a while.

Still feel sick. But I don't know if it's the bug or the returns.

AZ really too early to call? Seriously? AZ is so republican it went for Goldwater. How could someone not call AZ?

 

[Noodle]

Yes, that looks better now. But NC and FL both may be lost. She needed one of those. And now MI looks shaky.

I started feeling flu-ish this afternoon, cut out of work around 3:30, came home, and went to bed for a while.

Still feel sick. But I don't know if it's the bug or the returns.

Suck it up. You're acting like a pansy. We'll survive. And yes Trump is going to win. I don't like it but it is done.

 

[Noodle]

Look, if they split these "too close" states down the middle, Clinton wins. Simple as that. The problem is that some of these "too close" states were supposed to be safe blue, and since toss-ups tend to move together as a group, they could just as easily all go for one or the other as they could split.

Are you watching returns in an alternate universe?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Look, if they split these "too close" states down the middle, Clinton wins. Simple as that. The problem is that some of these "too close" states were supposed to be safe blue, and since toss-ups tend to move together as a group, they could just as easily all go for one or the other as they could split.

I don't know, I'm starting to think he's going north of 300. Wisconsin looks in play. And the catch is that all this white rural vote is going to impact each state. It appears PA held out, but I'm not sure she isn't going to lose a lot of these.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Yes, that looks better now. But NC and FL both may be lost. She needed one of those. And now MI looks shaky.

I started feeling flu-ish this afternoon, cut out of work around 3:30, came home, and went to bed for a while.

Still feel sick. But I don't know if it's the bug or the returns.

If she holds VA, MI and NV, she wins, even without NC and FL.

 

[twenty02]

Market futures down 500+

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Are you watching returns in an alternate universe?

??? If they split the too close states, Trump can't get to 270 without stealing a west coast state.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

This crazy election...

538, it turns out, built in a "failsafe" for their election night projections, which are based on polling model and called states. If a state is surprisingly close, they can override that to make it 50/50, despite what their model actually said. They just did that to Michigan, dropping Hillary's chances of winning the election from 74% to 60% in the blink of an eye.

 

[DerrickC]

NYT 73% Trump.

This is about over.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

With Burr's win, Dems are running out of opportunities to earn a 50-50 split. GOP almost certainly going to hold the Senate, no matter who wins the WH.

News networks going to start calling FL for Trump very soon. Gap too big, and Hillary running out of outstanding votes.

 

[SuperHoosierFan]

This crazy election...

538, it turns out, built in a "failsafe" for their election night projections, which are based on polling model and called states. If a state is surprisingly close, they can override that to make it 50/50, despite what their model actually said. They just did that to Michigan, dropping Hillary's chances of winning the election from 74% to 60% in the blink of an eye.

Looks like Trump will take FL. ~140k vote lead with 95% in.

 

[DerrickC]

Everyone is so focused on Michigan and totally forgetting about Wisconsin.

I truly don't know how this is happening.

 

[IUSUMMERS]

Gambling sites have made Trump favorite at this point.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

This crazy election...

538, it turns out, built in a "failsafe" for their election night projections, which are based on polling model and called states. If a state is surprisingly close, they can override that to make it 50/50, despite what their model actually said. They just did that to Michigan, dropping Hillary's chances of winning the election from 74% to 60% in the blink of an eye.

The killer is, I don't know if she can make up those numbers in Michigan. Let's recall what happened in Michigan in the primary. Especially because I am betting Trump is dominating the UAW vote.

 

[DerrickC]

Trump 79% NYT.

I have no words.

 

[Hank Reardon]

Everyone is so focused on Michigan and totally forgetting about Wisconsin.

I truly don't know how this is happening.

Wisconsin will go to Hillary. Her strong areas are still reporting in.

 

[twenty02]

Looking like a Trump wave.

Put @zeke4ahs on full time suicide watch.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

With Burr's win, Dems are running out of opportunities to earn a 50-50 split. GOP almost certainly going to hold the Senate, no matter who wins the WH.

News networks going to start calling FL for Trump very soon. Gap too big, and Hillary running out of outstanding votes.

The National Republican Senate Committee folks did a remarkable job this cycle in a tough landscape for them.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The secret, never discount the power of the cult of personality.

 

[SuperHoosierFan]

Looking like a Trump wave.

Put @zeke4ahs on full time suicide watch.

OH just called for Trump

 

[Hank Reardon]

Looking like a Trump wave.

Put @zeke4ahs on full time suicide watch.

I keep hearing the dude at the end of Trading Places shouting, 'Turn those machines back on!"

I still think it'll ultimately break her way. Hate to say it but I hope so.