Stoll - it takes a bit of time. Knee jerk reactions are just that. Based on the tone and tenor of the reporting by responsible journalists (see the NYT today and yesterday), he doesn't make it to the convention.
As a party, the Dems can't just tear Biden down and leave a vacuum. All of this will need to be carefully orchestrated with palms greased and promises made in blood before any announcement is made.
This is all cover. At least, I hope.
My best guess on timelines and key factors that have the Bidens in this current situation...
1. Trump starts his BS Obama "birther" conspiracy campaign. I mention this because I think Trump and Biden are tied together in all this. And that was the beginning of Trump's political ascent.
2. At some point near the end of Obamas 2nd term, The Obamas and the DNC decided that Biden wasn't going to be his successor. I don't think this was likely originally very well received by Biden and his family.
3. The Sanders/Clinton primary fight fanned the flames that was heating the MAGA cauldron. Biden, and his family, I'm sure weren't overly impressed with the Primary. But Trump wasn't a real threat, at this point.
4. Clinton wins primary...people still largely dismissing the weird Trump phenomena. Biden family moving on and out of politics.
5. Clinton loses in epically horrible fashion. I don't think there was really much consideration for a Trump Presidency by most...probably all the way up until election night even. So at this point, Biden is still largely checked out.
6. Trump takes office, and it didn't take too long for him to start pouring acid all over the democratic party. Clinton's loss causes chaos, but the reality of how Trump was going to lead, pushed the DNC in to full blown melt down mode. They needed an "anti Trump" presence. They tried the Obamas, but they were no longer willing to be the face. I think within the first few months of the Trump Presidency is when the DNC started pulling the Bidens back in to the fold. And I suspect they were very resistant.
7. Charlottesville, how it was reported, whatever... that was like smelling salts to a lot of people. And it likely did convince the Bidens to "get back into it". But at that point in time, they probably didn't know what that meant, and were still resistant to it all.
8. COVID happened. And while Biden was already running, at that point, that was probably when the entire family became all on board with Biden running and beating Trump. With really the sole focus being beating Trump...really not a ton of thought or energy put in to planning what they'd do if/when they did beat Trump.
***Side bar...A very big reason for the Bidens' reluctance to "get back into it" was that he probably started to show signs of mental and physical decline, that he and his family noticed but most others didn't. I wouldn't be surprised to know that it started during the Obama years, and that's a major reason why he wasn't propped up as the successor. But as they were being courted back by the DNC, this subject probably did come up, and they were pushed, pressured, etc... anyways.***
9. Biden wins. But his mental and physical limitations give DNC powers that be a window and opportunity to take control of the office...through Biden. Biden is with it enough to be a part of it all, but others are now very much in power as well. And part of those "others" are key members of his family, in all likelihood.
10. Since he took office, Biden has been the one to take the brunt of all those "others" decisions and actions. That wears on Biden and his family.
11. The decision makers have a pretty sweet setup, that they've not often had before, where they have an incredibly high amount of power and influence on the Oval Office. So despite the now openly obvious signs of mental and physical decline, they kept pushing off the inevitable dilemma of setting up Biden's replacement/successor. They felt like the decline would remain gradual enough that they could get through the election. Miraculously Trump was going to be the opponent again, and he was literally the only human on the planet that Biden could probably beat. So the risk was worth the potential reward.
12. At some point in the last few months, Biden's decline convinced enough people that he likely wasn't going to be able to beat Trump...polling numbers were horrible, despite Trump being indicted in multiple states. And Joe just might not have it in him to stage any sort of "rally".
13. They decided to set a debate, much earlier than normal, as a test to see if Biden still had a SOTU type performance in him. If he rallied, and showed well in the debate, that would ease enough people's concerns, that he'd overtake the polls...and they could largely shut him down from then on out, and let Trump ruin himself (he would have). But on the flipside, if he wasn't good...if he looked how he's been looking publicly for a little while now, a June debate does give them a little bit of time to make a move on him, and still have a chance to scrape a new campaign together to beat Trump. That's what they're doing right now.
14. The Biden's may be in a spot where they've had enough of this BS. And their initial reactions, the ones we're seeing and hearing about right now, are "We didn't even want to be here in the first place...you guys forced this...Now we're invested...We're not just going to meekly walk away now."
I think the end result, like you Lars, is they'll make a move here in the next month or so. But The Bidens are going to work like hell to ensure that happens with as little as possible long lasting damage on Joe and their legacies. They're fighting back, trying to show life and energy, so Biden can go out looking like a fighter, and not a confused, dying old man.
