Yea just was looking at voter issue ranking. The standard D biggies, Abortion, gun control, climate change were like 7,8,9 ... I'm happy to see them relegated to the dust bin, just not happy what it has taken to get them there.
Democrats edging out Republicans
- Thread starter NPT
- Start date
They don't even post representative polls. They post Baris and Trafalgar. And even then, they only post the ones that look good for the GOP.
All the liberal pollers are starting to throw in the towel this week. They cannot find a way to show the dems in the lead any longer and have had to shift to likely voter models.
But more concerning for Democrats — with just 18 days to go before the election — is that the Republican advantage grows to 6 points, 53% to 47%, among all likely voters who live in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: GOP holds 𝟲 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on in Battleground States Republicans 53% (+6) Democrats 47% ⦿ OH: R+12, FL: R+10, AZ: R+6 ⦿ GA: R+6, NC: R+6, WI: R+4, NV: R+4 Survey Monkey | 10/15-18 | 108,206 LV
2022 Congressional Generic Ballot Republicans 48% (+3) Democrats 45% ⦿ Data For Progress (𝗗) ⦿ 10/06-18 | 4,576 LV | MoE ±1% https://dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot
But more concerning for Democrats — with just 18 days to go before the election — is that the Republican advantage grows to 6 points, 53% to 47%, among all likely voters who live in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Tweet
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: GOP holds 𝟲 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on in Battleground States Republicans 53% (+6) Democrats 47% ⦿ OH: R+12, FL: R+10, AZ: R+6 ⦿ GA: R+6, NC: R+6, WI: R+4, NV: R+4 Survey Monkey | 10/15-18 | 108,206 LV
2022 Congressional Generic Ballot Republicans 48% (+3) Democrats 45% ⦿ Data For Progress (𝗗) ⦿ 10/06-18 | 4,576 LV | MoE ±1% https://dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot
Dem close to Kelly campaign: “We believe this is a race that’s within a point in either direction, and there’s still a good chance that we would lose,” the Democrat said. “And it’s important people understand that.”
@natalie_allison
@natalie_allison
Man, you guys sure have a lot invested in this forum going nuts. You're going to be very disappointed.
On topic, Nate Silver thinks the 538 model is probably overstating Dems chances at the moment.
fivethirtyeight.com
Why I’m Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up
The Senate started out as a toss-up when we launched our forecast in June — and after a summer in which political developments mostly played to Democrats’ favor…
Hopefully we get a quiet two years. Dems’ shit gets blocked. Little gets done. But I suspect the new congress will usher in investigations and hearings. The Jan 6 committee will be disbanded. Hunter will be under the radar. Maybe impeachment stuff. Election stuff. Our gov blows
McCarthy has vowed he will shut down the government over the debt ceiling if he doesn't get concessions on Social Security. It's going to be a shit show.
Austerity measures are needed on SS. I know it’s not popular for a politician to say, but it’s true.
I don’t even disagree with the program overall, but it is unsustainable in its current form.
Inflation won't slow down and it is a lie by Biden that it is. He and his administration are using the numbers in misleading ways. Democrats are going to have a hard time finding ways to hide what is going on as voters go to the polls.
Inflation isn't just slowing down. It's essentially plateauing. That helps Dems, but it's probably too little, too late. It will take several more months, maybe even a year, for people to really feel like inflation is under control.
Also, let's be honest, if we're going to let science continue to find ways to keep people alive until they're 120, we probably need to raise the retirement age, too.
Or maybe we should knock it off with all the stop smoking and stop drinking and stop eating nothing but fat and sugar campaigns.
What? I know it’s hard to fathom government measures ever effecting your take home, but welcome to the real world.
Any slow, phase, change to SS probably wouldn’t affect your trailer park ass any.
McConnell-aligned super PAC pulls $5M from New Hampshire Senate race
The Senate Leadership Fund super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Friday that it would cut off TV ad reservations in New Hampshire.
I'll be fine either way. But lifting the cap is the simplest and most equitable solution. Which is why it won't happen.
Whole lotta people still doing hard physical work who would have a hard time. Even me with my relatively easy work environment, I was physically done when I hit 66. I'm still reasonably active but I'm limited as to how much I can do for how long.
Raising the Social Security Tax Cap - NCPSSM
According to the Social Security Trustees, the Social Security Trust Fund will be able to pay full benefits until 2034, and incoming payroll taxes will be sufficient to pay about 75 percent of benefits thereafter. Some are using this modest gap in long-term funding as a pretext to justify...
www.ncpssm.org
Crime is a close second and first in some regions, and shouldn’t be underestimated as the real nail in the coffin. Adding that to inflation is not a good recipe to win elections. Two issues that go damn personal.
It's actually designed to be, and is, progressive. It's progressive in that a higher proportion of your earnings are replaced with the benefit payment at the lower income levels (about 50 percent) and a lower proportion is replaced for the higher income levels (30 percent - less for those that are over the income cap for paying in). Why do you think that's regressive?
Okay, the funding mechanism is regressive and the benefit mechanism is progressive. Whatever. The fact remains that there's going to be a shortfall between income and outlay in the next ten years that needs to be addressed. I'd be fine with phasing in something akin to your TSP plan -- as long as it's universal and mandatory -- but that doesn't address the issue at hand. Social Security as it is currently constituted needs to be shored up. Eliminating the cap accomplishes that and IMO is the least onerous of the various alternatives I've seen proposed.
It might not be onerous to you to lift the cap, but it would be for many above the cap. You didn’t answer my question of whether you’d increase their benefits proportionally.
A plan including TSP should be phased in and it would need to be mandatory for all. Wouldn’t take long for it to be extremely popular.
Not directly 1:1 proportionally, no. Give it a bump, sure. The benefits mechanism needs to remain progressive overall. The whole idea is to increase revenue, not increase outlay. That would defeat the purpose.
On that we agree. I would also make sure it couldn't be drawn on or borrowed against before retirement unless for the direst of reasons.
There are restrictions on using TSP before retirement age.
I can't wait for the Brave New World dmbailey is predicting.
No more crime, inflation, war, or government intrusion, starting 11/9/22.
No excuses.
No more crime, inflation, war, or government intrusion, starting 11/9/22.
No excuses.
Finally a judge who has read the Constitution.
www.foxnews.com
New York judge rules voting by mail due to COVID fears is unconstitutional
Saratoga County Supreme Court Justice Dianne Freestone ruled that voting by mail over coronavirus fears is unconstitutional, notching a win for Republicans in the state.
A
anon_6hv78pr714xta
Guest
In a year of some pretty bad campaigns, Katie Hobbs might take the cake
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
·
9h
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Kari Lake holds 𝟯 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead Katie Hobbs in Arizona Governor Race (R) Kari Lake 49% (+3) (D) Katie Hobbs 46% 57% of Undecideds disapprove of Joe Biden ⦿ Trafalgar Group /
@realDailyWire
⦿ 1,078 LV | R40/D36/I24 | 10/10-16
Jonathan Weisman and Neil Vigdor
Tue, October 25, 2022 at 6:50 AM
Democratic candidates, facing what increasingly looks like a reckoning in two weeks, are struggling to find a closing message on the economy that acknowledges the deep uncertainty troubling the electorate while making the case that they, not the Republicans, hold the solutions.
For some time, the party’s candidates and strategists have debated whether to hit inflation head on or to heed warnings that any shift toward an economic message would be ending the campaign on the strongest possible Republican ground. Since midsummer, when the Supreme Court repealed Roe v. Wade, Democrats had hoped that preserving the 50-year-old constitutional right to an abortion and castigating Republican extremism could get them past the worst inflation in 40 years.
That is looking increasingly like wishful thinking.
Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times
On Monday, Democrats unveiled new messages that appeared to switch tacks, incorporating achievements of the past two years with expressions of sympathy on the economy and dire warnings for what Republicans might bring.
Switching messaging with two weeks lift is far too late to change any minds. Instead of obsessing over abortion and 01/06 they should have been using this messaging like four months ago. Oh well they went all in on abortion and it going to be a big mistake for them.
Tue, October 25, 2022 at 6:50 AM
Democratic candidates, facing what increasingly looks like a reckoning in two weeks, are struggling to find a closing message on the economy that acknowledges the deep uncertainty troubling the electorate while making the case that they, not the Republicans, hold the solutions.
For some time, the party’s candidates and strategists have debated whether to hit inflation head on or to heed warnings that any shift toward an economic message would be ending the campaign on the strongest possible Republican ground. Since midsummer, when the Supreme Court repealed Roe v. Wade, Democrats had hoped that preserving the 50-year-old constitutional right to an abortion and castigating Republican extremism could get them past the worst inflation in 40 years.
That is looking increasingly like wishful thinking.
Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times
On Monday, Democrats unveiled new messages that appeared to switch tacks, incorporating achievements of the past two years with expressions of sympathy on the economy and dire warnings for what Republicans might bring.
Switching messaging with two weeks lift is far too late to change any minds. Instead of obsessing over abortion and 01/06 they should have been using this messaging like four months ago. Oh well they went all in on abortion and it going to be a big mistake for them.
Whichever party takes on limiting ss benefits, all I can say is good luck to them for the future because they will need it!
That is what a Republican judge's interpretation is and as with most things constitutionally it can be interpreted differently by someone else. I wouldn't get to wound up by that Fox News story.Finally a judge who has read the Constitution.
New York judge rules voting by mail due to COVID fears is unconstitutional
Saratoga County Supreme Court Justice Dianne Freestone ruled that voting by mail over coronavirus fears is unconstitutional, notching a win for Republicans in the state.
I wonder if they have tallied shooters Desantis vote as of yet?
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
FLORIDA POLL By
@UNFPORL
GOV (R) Ron DeSantis 55% (+14) (D) Charlie Crist 41%
SEN (R) Marco Rubio 54% (+11) (D) Val Demings 43%
AG (R) Ashley Moody 50% (+14) (D) Aramis Ayala 36%
⦿ 622 LV | 10/17-24 | MoE ±4.7% https://tallahassee.com/story/news/2022/10/26/university-north-florida-poll-desantis-rubio-lead-double-digits/10601869002/
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
FLORIDA POLL By
@UNFPORL
GOV (R) Ron DeSantis 55% (+14) (D) Charlie Crist 41%
SEN (R) Marco Rubio 54% (+11) (D) Val Demings 43%
AG (R) Ashley Moody 50% (+14) (D) Aramis Ayala 36%
⦿ 622 LV | 10/17-24 | MoE ±4.7% https://tallahassee.com/story/news/2022/10/26/university-north-florida-poll-desantis-rubio-lead-double-digits/10601869002/
