Democrats edging out Republicans

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

These polls will mean something when nameless generic candidates are on the ballot.

They aren't meaningless. As of now, they are essentially even (DBM is cherry-picking the pro-GOP ones, obviously), but that's something in a nation that generally claims to be more Democrat than Republican. Part of this is, of course, the fact that most "independents" are actually Republicans. Independents are liars, by and large. Most of them lean one way or the other, and strongly. And a higher number of those liars are Republicans.

But even so, the generic ballot trends are telling. I know the Dems are being given a 1-in-3 chance of keeping the House, but I'd be absolutely shocked if that happens. I think a GOP win in the House is a forgone conclusion.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

These polls will mean something when nameless generic candidates are on the ballot.

Jeb Bush?

 

[8Stars5Banners]

Jeb Bush?

Jeborah??

 

[bailey777]

Democrats are not edgi

Democrats Edging Out Republicans for Midterms in 'Generic Ballot' Polling

Republicans are still favored to win the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms despite the Democrats' slight lead and recent legislative victories.

www.newsweek.com

Democrats Edging Out Republicans for Midterms in 'Generic Ballot' Polling

Republicans are still favored to win the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms despite the Democrats' slight lead and recent legislative victories.

www.newsweek.com

This thread is aging very very poorly for you. Democrats are not edging out anyone.

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot in Battleground States by Rasmussen (LV)
GEORGIA GOP — 50% (+11) Dem — 39%
PENNSYLVANIA GOP — 48% (+5) Dem — 43%
WISCONSIN GOP — 46% (+4) Dem — 42%
MICHIGAN GOP — 48% (+4) Dem — 44%
ARIZONA GOP — 47% (+3) Dem — 44%

 

[dbmhoosier]

Looking good Dems.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Looking good Dems.

View embedded media

Hochul is still ahead in every poll. But please, GOP, go ahead and spend some money in New York.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Hochul is still ahead in every poll. But please, GOP, go ahead and spend some money in New York.

Hochul will likely win but the fact that it could be remotely close says it all. Cuomo won by 23 in 2018.

 

[UncleMark]

Hochul will likely win but the fact that it could be remotely close says it all. Cuomo won by 23 in 2018.

Says all what? She's still be the Governor.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Says all what? She's still be the Governor.

My god you're dumb.

 

[Baller23Boogie]

My god you're dumb.

This is rich coming from the guy that posted the tweet claiming Pelosi's phone was off when any smartphone, after put up to a ear will go black.

 

[bailey777]

Dems like their socialism

FOX NEWS POLL: U.S moving away from Capitalism and more towards Socialism would be: Good Thing: 32% Bad Thing: 60% Socialism: Good/Bad Democrats: 𝟱𝟯/35 Republicans: 14/83 Independents: 24/63

 

[bailey777]

Democrats Edging Out Republicans for Midterms in 'Generic Ballot' Polling

Republicans are still favored to win the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms despite the Democrats' slight lead and recent legislative victories.

www.newsweek.com

Republicans average +5 with the latest four Generic Ballot likely voter polls. CBS/YouGov R+2 Harvard Harris R+6 Trafalgar R+5 Rasmussen R+7


9:54 AM · Oct 16, 2022·Twitter Web App

 

[dbmhoosier]

Bye bye Kelly

 

[cosmickid]

Bye bye Kelly

View embedded media

You realize "generic" means that they don't ask about specific candidates, right? So is the (I can't even believe I'm typing this) CD Media Big Data "poll" showing a 7 Pt lead for Masters over Kelly in a head to head? I think not, since there hasn't been a single reputable poll showing Masters closer than 4 points...

You guys know that the final Trafalgar poll prior to the 2020 election showed Trump winning, and winning in both MI and AZ as well.

The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win

Robert Cahaly’s polls have Arizona, Michigan and Florida in the president’s column. It’s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him. But they didn’t believe him in 2016 either.

www.nytimes.com

And Rasmussen had Trump winning AZ as well

Arizona: Trump 48%, Biden 45%

President Trump has moved to a three-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Arizona just days before Election Day.

www.rasmussenreports.com

Just saying none of these GOP pollsters have a very credible record concerning AZ...

 

[dbmhoosier]

They still don't understand why they're losing.

 

[NPT]

Democrats are not edgi


This thread is aging very very poorly for you. Democrats are not edging out anyone.

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot in Battleground States by Rasmussen (LV)
GEORGIA GOP — 50% (+11) Dem — 39%
PENNSYLVANIA GOP — 48% (+5) Dem — 43%
WISCONSIN GOP — 46% (+4) Dem — 42%
MICHIGAN GOP — 48% (+4) Dem — 44%
ARIZONA GOP — 47% (+3) Dem — 44%

I am not concerned how it is aging... I just posted it for information.

 

[dbmhoosier]

It's gonna get real quiet on here in a few weeks.

 

[Indianaftw]

Dayum if this is a glimpse...Landslide

 

[bailey777]

Obama has a message for the bowlmanias of the world. Will they listen? Heck no they won't

Former President Barack Obama recently pointed out that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot with their obsession with Donald Trump and the various legal questions surrounding him. They have deluded themselves, as a party, into believing that the rest of the world is as obsessed as they are with Trump, whateve

 

[Crayfish57]

Obama has a message for the bowlmanias of the world. Will they listen? Heck no they won't

Former President Barack Obama recently pointed out that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot with their obsession with Donald Trump and the various legal questions surrounding him. They have deluded themselves, as a party, into believing that the rest of the world is as obsessed as they are with Trump, whateve

All you need to do is look at the obsessed libs on here

 

[NPT]

Former President Barack Obama recently pointed out that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot with their obsession with Donald Trump and the various legal questions surrounding him.

But he ends with this.....
"You know, across the board, what we've seen is that when Democrats have a working majority, or even a really slim majority in Congress, they can make people's lives better."

All I can say is "Thanks Joe" 🤣

 

[dbmhoosier]

Republicans have massive leads on the top 4 issues 😂😂🤩🤩

 

[mohoosier]

that's like picking gonorrhea vs. syphilis.... With a small dose of Chlamydia thrown in just for fun

At least one of them knows who he is, can walk straight, doesn’t talk to ghosts or shit his pants when talking to reporters

 

[bailey777]

The bloodbath is coming.


InteractivePolls

@IAPolls2022


RCP HOUSE RATING CHANGES 3 Races shift Towards Republicans RCP HOUSE FORECAST ⦿ Republicans — 221 ⦿ Democrats — 178 ⦿ Toss Ups — 36

APolls2022


NEW: NYT/Siena College 2022 Generic Ballot GOP — 49% (R+4) Dem — 45% ⦿ Independents: R51-D41 (R+10) 2024 Presidential Election (R) Trump 45% (+1) (D) Biden 44%

 

[BigDogMan]

The bloodbath is coming.

InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022


RCP HOUSE RATING CHANGES 3 Races shift Towards Republicans RCP HOUSE FORECAST ⦿ Republicans — 221 ⦿ Democrats — 178 ⦿ Toss Ups — 36

APolls2022


NEW: NYT/Siena College 2022 Generic Ballot GOP — 49% (R+4) Dem — 45% ⦿ Independents: R51-D41 (R+10) 2024 Presidential Election (R) Trump 45% (+1) (D) Biden 44%

I guess we'll know in three weeks wont we? What do you and dbm get out of this incessant posting of polls and constant prognostication of doom for the Democrats? It seems like you're trying to convince yourself more than anything.

Patience. Wait and see. All will be revealed in time.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I guess we'll know in three weeks wont we? What do you and dbm get out of this incessant posting of polls and constant prognostication of doom for the Democrats? It seems like you're trying to convince yourself more than anything.

Patience. Wait and see. All will be revealed in time.

These polls are garbage

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

It seems like you're trying to convince yourself more than anything.

 

[bailey777]

It is certainly easy to see why so many TDS members are so unhinged when you see headlines like this. I suppose when they read this stuff 24/7 they believe all of it and trick themselves into thinking everyone thinks like them. When Kari wins there are going to be some very serious meltdowns and tantrums. The media will lead the charge and the TDS nuts will follow their lead.

• 
  
  

Are you aware of the chaos election deniers will bring? Let Kari Lake be a warning siren.​

Rex Huppke, USA TODAY
Mon, October 17, 2022 at 9:47 AM·6 min read

 

[Ladoga]

Dems like their socialism

FOX NEWS POLL: U.S moving away from Capitalism and more towards Socialism would be: Good Thing: 32% Bad Thing: 60% Socialism: Good/Bad Democrats: 𝟱𝟯/35 Republicans: 14/83 Independents: 24/63

 

[bailey777]

Real Political Data



So you're telling me that people don't give a shit about January 6th or if someone is pro Trump? What a shocker!
Quote Tweet

AP Politics

@AP_Politics
·
Oct 16
Wisconsin voters seem to shrug at the Jan. 6 ties of Republican Derrick Van Orden, the most likely of a half-dozen candidates at the "Stop the Steal" protest to win a seat in Congress. His Democratic opponent, Brad Pfaff, is scrambling to raise money. http://apne.ws/VRCCVvi

Going all in on abortion and 01/06 was a total loser of a strategy for the dems but I guess it was all they had.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Real Political Data


So you're telling me that people don't give a shit about January 6th or if someone is pro Trump? What a shocker!
Quote Tweet

AP Politics

@AP_Politics
·
Oct 16
Wisconsin voters seem to shrug at the Jan. 6 ties of Republican Derrick Van Orden, the most likely of a half-dozen candidates at the "Stop the Steal" protest to win a seat in Congress. His Democratic opponent, Brad Pfaff, is scrambling to raise money. http://apne.ws/VRCCVvi

Going all in on abortion and 01/06 was a total loser of a strategy for the dems but I guess it was all they had.

@bailey777

Dewine by 18+ but Vance only 2. Bwaaaa...Baris told us they'd do this.

 

[Ladoga]

The Fox News poll is of registered voters. This close to election, RV polls have no value, The generic ballot tests show Rs up 4-6 percent in likely voters. Fox may have it right on their sample, but they are using the wrong sample.

 

[dbmhoosier]

The Fox News poll is of registered voters. This close to election, RV polls have no value, The generic ballot tests show Rs up 4-6 percent in likely voters. Fox may have it right on their sample, but they are using the wrong sample.

It's all by design. Paul Ryan runs the show there. Boy is he butt hurt.

 

[cosmickid]

@bailey777

Dewine by 18+ but Vance only 2. Bwaaaa...Baris told us they'd do this.

View embedded media

But but but Emerson, which bailey assures us is a "very good pollster" shows the same huge discrepancy between DeWine and Vance. In fact Emerson shows DeWine up 14 and Vance and Ryan in a dead heat. And they show a net gain for Ryan of +3 from their previous poll as more undecided women add to Ryan's lead among women, and the Ohio abortion law slips 5 points from it's approval in their previous poll...

Ohio 2022: Ryan and Vance in Dead Heat for Ohio Senate Seat; Gov. DeWine Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Whaley - Emerson Polling

The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Ohio voters finds Republican JD Vance and…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

All of these polls show a huge discrepancy between popular GOP moderate Governors who will get votes from Dems (like DeWine) and Trump appointed lackeys who end up repelling moderate Pubs. Same with Kemp/Walker in GA, although I wouldn't exactly call Kemp a moderate. But he's likable to some Dems as a person, so he'll get more votes than Herschel.

 

[cosmickid]

The Fox News poll is of registered voters. This close to election, RV polls have no value, The generic ballot tests show Rs up 4-6 percent in likely voters. Fox may have it right on their sample, but they are using the wrong sample.

The problem with the likely voter model some of these GOP partisan polls are using is that they are relying on past midterm turnout to define "likely voters". They've already been very far off in the two major races since Dobbs was announced (Kan amendment, and NY-19) because they didn't pick up the huge influx of women who registered (many of them first time, or infrequent voters) after the Dobbs decision. Those are not traditional "likely" voters, esp in a midterm. That's why polls in the NY 19 the day before the primary showed the GOP candidate up 8 points and he lost by 3.

There are only 12 states which are already early voting and there have already been 2 Million + votes cast and over 1.8 Million have been via mail. Those are not traditional midterm numbers, so turnout will be high. And unless GOP voters are suddenly enamored with mail voting, a large number of those votes would seem to be from Democrats. This is not going to be a typical midterm, and I'm not sure those GOP pollsters (with their outlier polls) have caught on to that yet...

 

[Ladoga]

The problem with the likely voter model some of these GOP partisan polls are using is that they are relying on past midterm turnout to define "likely voters". They've already been very far off in the two major races since Dobbs was announced (Kan amendment, and NY-19) because they didn't pick up the huge influx of women who registered (many of them first time, or infrequent voters) after the Dobbs decision. Those are not traditional "likely" voters, esp in a midterm. That's why polls in the NY 19 the day before the primary showed the GOP candidate up 8 points and he lost by 3.

There are only 12 states which are already early voting and there have already been 2 Million + votes cast and over 1.8 Million have been via mail. Those are not traditional midterm numbers, so turnout will be high. And unless GOP voters are suddenly enamored with mail voting, a large number of those votes would seem to be from Democrats. This is not going to be a typical midterm, and I'm not sure those GOP pollsters (with their outlier polls) have caught on to that yet...

Good polls don't use sample assumptions to determine likely voter and only pursue completion if the respondent gets past the screening question(s). Maybe you have identified Republican outlier polls. I don't see any on this issue.

 

[bailey777]

Well this should make shooter happy he voted for desantis (wink wink) the first time!

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Ron DeSantis holds 𝟭𝟬 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Charlie Crist in FL Governor Race

(R) Ron DeSantis 52% (+10) (D) Charlie Crist 42%
Independents (R) Ron DeSantis 59% (+21) (D) Charlie Crist 38%
@SachsMediaGrp
| October 15 | LV's https://floridapolitics.com/archives/564648-last-call-for-10-17-22-a-prime-time-read-of-whats-going-down-in-florida-politics/

 

[Univee2]

Well this should make shooter happy he voted for desantis (wink wink) the first time!

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Ron DeSantis holds 𝟭𝟬 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Charlie Crist in FL Governor Race

(R) Ron DeSantis 52% (+10) (D) Charlie Crist 42%
Independents (R) Ron DeSantis 59% (+21) (D) Charlie Crist 38%
@SachsMediaGrp
| October 15 | LV's https://floridapolitics.com/archives/564648-last-call-for-10-17-22-a-prime-time-read-of-whats-going-down-in-florida-politics/

Only 10?

Charlie Crist is a charlatan and a buffoon.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Well this should make shooter happy he voted for desantis (wink wink) the first time!

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Ron DeSantis holds 𝟭𝟬 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Charlie Crist in FL Governor Race

(R) Ron DeSantis 52% (+10) (D) Charlie Crist 42%
Independents (R) Ron DeSantis 59% (+21) (D) Charlie Crist 38%
@SachsMediaGrp
| October 15 | LV's https://floridapolitics.com/archives/564648-last-call-for-10-17-22-a-prime-time-read-of-whats-going-down-in-florida-politics/

Only +4 in far left Quinnipiac polling?

 

[bailey777]

Only +4 in far left Quinnipiac polling?

View embedded media

If that is the best a very liberal poller can do for the dem it is going to be a slaughter in all the down ballot races in NY. I think she will still probably win but not by alot. Only the liberal elites in NYC will save her. At this point I would not be shocked if the repubs got between 240-250 in the house and 53 in the senate.