On polling, uh huh.
The dude in one sentence said Ron Johnson was leading or tied or barely losing.
If he was paying for "polling", he got ripped off.
Democrats edging out Republicans
- Thread starter NPT
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On polling, uh huh.
The dude in one sentence said Ron Johnson was leading or tied or barely losing.
If he was paying for "polling", he got ripped off.
Some interesting polling news from Cook Report. A named poll and an unnamed pollster report that generic Democrats are easily winning the group who "somewhat disapprove" of Biden. In one poll that is 17% of the electorate, 11% in the other. Traditionally the party in power does very poorly with this group. For Biden to have a double digit lead is surprising.
One theory is that group is largely made up of people left of Biden. Another thought is that it is a group that personally dislikes Biden but not D policies.
If this is accurate, the question becomes turnout. Will people who dislike Biden but perhaps like Tim Ryan show up at the polls
www.cookpolitical.com
One theory is that group is largely made up of people left of Biden. Another thought is that it is a group that personally dislikes Biden but not D policies.
If this is accurate, the question becomes turnout. Will people who dislike Biden but perhaps like Tim Ryan show up at the polls
Democrats Winning Over the “Meh” Voter
A big reason we pay so much attention to a president's job approval rating, even in a midterm election when the president isn't on the ballot, is the significant correlation between voter opinions of a president and their vote choice in an election. Suppose you think the president is doing a...
I don't think that's true at all. They want him barred from running, as a traitor and insurrectionist.
Yes, they do feel very confident that they can beat him, again. But they KNOW that he and his cult will claim victory / election rigging no matter what, and provoke more civil unrest to possibly threaten our nation AFTER he loses.
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"If this is accurate, the question becomes turnout. Will people who dislike Biden but perhaps like Tim Ryan show up at the polls."Some interesting polling news from Cook Report. A named poll and an unnamed pollster report that generic Democrats are easily winning the group who "somewhat disapprove" of Biden. In one poll that is 17% of the electorate, 11% in the other. Traditionally the party in power does very poorly with this group. For Biden to have a double digit lead is surprising.
One theory is that group is largely made up of people left of Biden. Another thought is that it is a group that personally dislikes Biden but not D policies.
If this is accurate, the question becomes turnout. Will people who dislike Biden but perhaps like Tim Ryan show up at the polls
Democrats Winning Over the “Meh” Voter
A big reason we pay so much attention to a president's job approval rating, even in a midterm election when the president isn't on the ballot, is the significant correlation between voter opinions of a president and their vote choice in an election. Suppose you think the president is doing a...
I'd say the answer is YES...Brand new Yahoo/you gov poll shows Dems leading generic by 5. But more importantly the Dems have a 3 point lead among voters who say they will definitely vote...
"According to the survey of 1,634 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 6, 45% of registered voters now say they would cast their ballot for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district if the election were held today; 40% say they would choose the Republican candidate instead."
Among registered voters who say they will “definitely” vote on Nov. 8, Democrats lead 48% to 45%.. Voters who say they plan to vote Dem are motivated by abortion (71%) and voting rights (81%). There is also among Dems a 70% level of motivation to vote against candidates supported by Trump, while only 36% of those voting GOP said they were voting to advance pro-Trump candidates.
By contrast 67% of Dems said they were motivated to help advance the Biden agenda, while 85% of Pubs are motivated by the desire to halt the Biden agenda. Biden is polarizing to a certain extent, but Trump highly motivates Dems and draws a pretty lackluster response from the GOP. I wonder what Trump's popularity among Pub voters will be after the final round of Jan 6 hearings? I'd imagine the anti-Trump sentiment among Dems will only increase...
Poll: Democrats lead Republicans among those who say they'll 'definitely' vote in midterms
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that Democrats are heading into the homestretch of the 2022 midterm campaign with a lead over Republicans among registered voters — including those who say they “definitely will vote” this year.
Oh no.
NEW:
@Rasmussen_Poll
| 08/14-18 2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Republicans 46% (+5) Democrats 41% Independents Republicans 41% (+11) Democrats 30% GOP lead up 2 points from last week N=2,500 LV | Sample35/R33/I32
I'm not sure how much stock I put in Susquehanna, but they show a definite tightening of the DeSantis/Crist race and real danger for Rubio vs Demmings. While DeSantis 47-43 is within the MOE, they find that Independents favor DeSantis more than Rubio, who they dislike intently. Crist leads among committed Independents 36-31, but 10% of Independents are uncommitted and his favorability is about +8, so they should break for him, assuming they vote...
But Rubio's lead at 47-44 is way down from the 50-39 lead he held a year earlier in the same hypothetical polling. And Rubio's favorability among Independents is 47-24 (unfavorable-favorable,) while Deming's leads among Independents 41-32 and is viewed positively on favorability at 31-28. Both show about the same 93%+ among their respective party voters, so Independents could have a huge affect.
And while economy/inflation is still the number 1 issue (54%) and motivates Pub voters, abortion has risen to #2 (44%) and passed other issues like immigration where Pubs rate higher, but it doesn't motivate voters as much as abortion. Consequently a shift in economy might affect the race significantly, because abortion likely is a motivating factor for some people who generally prefer Pubs on the economy. However, that might end up blunted if the economy improves and becomes less of a motivation for GOP prone people who also see abortion as important.
The only one I'm worried about having a shot at winning is Lake, and that's because she's a former TV anchor with name recognition. Masters is desperately trying to reinvent himself, but with the huge fundraising advantage Kelly has I'm sure he'll be able to make sure voters are aware of where Masters really stands on abortion rights.
Lake is bonkers, but her name recognition could cause casual voters to give her their vote. The weekday edition of Meet The Press broadcast on site from Phoenix yesterday, and publicity like that will help insure that voters are aware of what the issues are and where the respective candidates stand on them.
I'm attending a luncheon next week where Lake and Hobbs will both speak and take questions. Both candidates running for AG will also participate. The Republican Party was taken over by crazy folk the past few years. The race for Governor will be tight but Lake won't be favored.
While Biden won AZ in 2020, I have to believe it was more a case of people voting against Trump than for Biden. How does Lake's negatives compare to Trumps? From what I can gather, they're both equally nuts, but it's hard to tell from a distance.
And it has to be said, Lake will pick up a few votes just on babe points.
Hobbs isn’t a great candidate but she’s up by a few points. The entire Republican lineup is nuts. Masters is toast. The AG is a loser. The Secretary of State was at January 6 and crazy. Even the guy running for school superintendent has a wicked past.
Like I said earlier Bowlmania posting a bunch of July push polls which favor his narrative would age very poorly as we see the same push polls every cycle. It only early September and already we see polls shifting as some are finally shifting to likely voter models. By October the Trump candidates which Bowlmania claimed were getting killed will all most likely be in the lead and his post will be like a said aged poorly. Three polls in a row now have walker up. Sorry bowlmania reality will hit you soon but you will be ok.
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Same pollster-a 6 point turnaround Insider Advantage*
9/6 Walker 47 Warnock 44 Walker
+3 FOX 5/Insider Advantage*
7/27 Walker 45 Warnock 48 Warnock +3
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@shepmjs
Same pollster-a 6 point turnaround Insider Advantage*
9/6 Walker 47 Warnock 44 Walker
+3 FOX 5/Insider Advantage*
7/27 Walker 45 Warnock 48 Warnock +3
Weren't you spamming the boards with polls all spring and summer?
Summer polling almost always way overstates the Dems. If a Republican is even remotely close they're going to win. That's the point. So a Warnock +1 in August means Walker will likely win by 5+.
Lol. Garland did nothing for two years. Sorry if you think mishandling nuclear documents is no big deal.
Bing is in the midst of his command tour. I’m surprised he had time to post anything.
Masters is starting to surge and he has not even been funded yet by the gop that will start soon. Again victory dances over July push polls will not age well by November as this happens every cycle. The common theme as a certain poster likes to say is Trump candidates are starting to surge and will continue to surge.
NEW ARIZONA POLL by Emerson SENATE (D) Mark Kelly 47% (+2) (R) Blake Masters 45% GOVERNOR
(R) Kari Lake 46% (=) (D) Katie Hobbs 46%
PRESIDENT (R) Donald Trump 44% (+3) (D) Joe Biden 41% 627
LV | 09/06-07 | R36/D33/I31
NEW ARIZONA POLL by Emerson SENATE (D) Mark Kelly 47% (+2) (R) Blake Masters 45% GOVERNOR
(R) Kari Lake 46% (=) (D) Katie Hobbs 46%
PRESIDENT (R) Donald Trump 44% (+3) (D) Joe Biden 41% 627
LV | 09/06-07 | R36/D33/I31
Masters will win. Kelly was up by almost 10 against McSally at this time last election before only winning by 2 and that was only because the GOP abandoned her. She was an awful candidate but would have won with funding.
So is he "surging" because he scrubbed all of the anti-abortion nonsense off his website ,and tried to reinvent himself...
How do you feel knowing your preferred candidate can only become competitive by basically turning his back on positions he's always favored and pretending he doesn't advocate the very policies that caused you to support him in the first place?
Your horse is getting awfully high. Every candidate tries to pivot to the middle for the general. "I was for it before I was against it." That's politics. It's up to the opposition to make sure the voters know what has happened.
At this point, I'm seriously starting to wonder if one, or maybe both of you aren't just less obvious versions of Lucy and her parody posting. bailey literally cited a poll which leans GOP, and has a 3% edge of Pubs polled over Dems and a 5% edge over Independents to claim Masters is "surging". he's still losing in a poll with that sort of bias and utilizing an outdated "likely voters" model which is completely irrelevant post-roe, and you describe him as "surging"?
How far behind would he be with a more realistic 33/33/33 sampling? I mean we've already had actual elections post-Roe which basically demonstrate how outdated this model is for this particular midterm season. Post Roe, Dems have exceeded Biden's 2020 numbers in all 4 special elections, as well as the abortion ballot issue in Kansas.
| June 28, 2022 | Nebraska 1st | R+17 | R+5 | D+12 |
| Aug. 9, 2022 | Minnesota 1st | R+15 | R+4 | D+11 |
| Aug. 23, 2022 | New York 19th | R+4 | D+2 | D+6 |
| Aug. 23, 2022 | New York 23rd | R+15 | R+7 | D+9 |
| Post-Dobbs average | R+13 | R+3 | D+9 |
The first # is partisan lean, and the second is actual vote. The third is margin swing, which favored Dems in all Post- Roe races. The Pubs still won some of the races, but by far less votes than the lean (esp in a "red wave") would suggest. The swing means far more Dems turned out to vote than either history or the districts partisan component would indicate. That means a LOT of people who didn't fit into the category of "likely voter" but were in fact REGISTERED voters turned out to vote.
That alone points out the irrelevance of "likely voter" models because the whole basis behind "likely voters" is the concept that voters whose candidate lost the POTUS two years earlier will be angry and will turn out in greater numbers than the voters who support the current Admin and are complacent and unmotivated...
Before Roe that was valid, one of the main reasons Biden's approval numbers were so low was because his favorability among Dems was low to coordinate with his numbers among Pubs. But Biden's numbers among Dems is up around 90% and the enthusiasm gap with was double digits has basically disappeared, which takes away the inherent advantages Pubs had 6 months ago and undercuts the whole basis for "likely voter" models. Not only does Emerson utilize likely voter, but they also weighed this model to Pubs +3, and at this stage that seems ridiculous.
If Masters were "surging", he wouldn't change his positions. And he didn't change his positions on the basis of "push polls". Here is a good indicator of exactly why Masters is desperately trying to reinvent himself- a survey of Latinos in AZ...
"A whopping 80% of Arizona Latinos support keeping abortion legal, regardless of their personal beliefs."
“Abortion has become more salient,” said Gary Segura, president and co-founder of BSP Research, the firm that conducted the poll, with 80% of Latino voters saying the procedure should be legal. That sentiment is high between men and women, with 83% and 78% agreeing it’s wrong to make abortion illegal and take that choice away.
This is important because many Latinos are Catholic and pro-life – something Republicans sought to capitalize on when courting them. That became problematic with the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Another deal breaker?
Latinos won’t vote for candidates backed by white supremacists or who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, the survey shows."
Poll of Arizona Latino voters spells trouble for Republicans – and Democrats
The most extensive poll of Arizona Latino voters yet this year reveals surprising results about abortion and the lack of voter outreach.
I'm feeling pretty confidant. But the shift on abortion has been stark, with Masters shifting from advocating for no exceptions and a personhood amendment, to now saying his position was "exaggerated". And as I subsequently pointed out abortion and Jan 6 are both issues that resonate with Latino voters who might personally oppose abortion but 80% still say they want people to have the option and for it to remain legal...
In effect the Dobbs ruling is undercutting some of the support from Latinos the GOP was beginning to experience. As usual, they overreached...
I find it a little interesting that the dog finally caught the car and now many Republicans are backing away from the law getting changed and their position. I’ve said since June women are going to come out in record numbers. We’ll see in a few months if that’s correct. And I do know candidates do this all the time, but I can’t think of many times when rights were taken away from a whole group of people and then suddenly pols are all whoops didn’t mean to do that. ( guy from SC who cried ).
Then why are they backing Trumps hand picked candidates in primaries at the expense of more moderate Republicans? It’s simple, and the same reason Trump won’t be charged.
The democrats don’t see Trump as a traitor and insurrectionist. That’s red meat they toss out to keep people like you riled up.
They see Trump as their easiest avenue to retain power, and that’s all that matters. That’s why they’ll try their best to make sure he’s the candidate.
Democratic ads boosted extremists in Republican primaries. Was that wise? | US midterm elections 2022 | The Guardian
Helping election-denying, Trump-endorsed candidates may secure a more beatable general election opponent but some see it as a cynical and morally dubious move
I liked your post, not sure what else you want.
My point is that this is much more than a "pivot"- many of these anti-abortion/ Trump was robbed candidates basically ran their entire campaign on those two issues.I was just having a little fun with his claim that Masters was "surging" (he isn't) and also the fact that his whole strategy to pivot was to deny he favored the issues bailey in particular supported him for in the first place....So the staunch anti-abortionist can only gain ground by pretending he was never anti-abortion. If you're anti-abortion and that's why he's your candidate, then how do you reconcile that in your own mind? And if you accept it as a political reality, aren't you basically tacitly acknowledging how out of step your own views are with the rest of the state?
So you think the Democrats think it’s ok to take nuclear documents and lie about returning them? Do YOU think that’s ok? Or do you think that didn’t happen?Then why are they backing Trumps hand picked candidates in primaries at the expense of more moderate Republicans? It’s simple, and the same reason Trump won’t be charged.
The democrats don’t see Trump as a traitor and insurrectionist. That’s red meat they toss out to keep people like you riled up.
They see Trump as their easiest avenue to retain power, and that’s all that matters. That’s why they’ll try their best to make sure he’s the candidate.
Democratic ads boosted extremists in Republican primaries. Was that wise? | US midterm elections 2022 | The Guardian
Helping election-denying, Trump-endorsed candidates may secure a more beatable general election opponent but some see it as a cynical and morally dubious moveamp.theguardian.com
https://endcitizensunited.org/lates...ga-as-threat-to-democracy-reuters-ipsos-poll/. Here’s a good poll for DMB. 58% if the country think MAGA is a threat to democracy. Even a quarter of Republicans think that. Maybe Biden’s speech was not that damaging.
Lol. Honestly are they really this stupid? They honesty don't get that as much the elitist left pushes people in one direction they naturally move in the opposite?
So your response to a video with 2.7 million views, which was retweeted in a tweet with over 100,000 likes is to post some tweet that garnered a whopping 79 likes? I'm not sure what point you're trying to make?
Meanwhile, in Ohio... Not only are polls showing a tight race with Ryan narrowly leading. But this latest poll also shows that people like Ryan, as his favorables outweigh his unfavorables by 20 points...
These polls will mean something when nameless generic candidates are on the ballot.
Big Generic Ballot day for GOP Rasmussen Reports GOP +7 Harvard-Harris GOP +6 Trafalgar +5
Democrats Edging Out Republicans for Midterms in 'Generic Ballot' Polling
Republicans are still favored to win the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms despite the Democrats' slight lead and recent legislative victories.www.newsweek.com
8:43 PM · Oct 14, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
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