Biden Housing
- Thread starter mcmurtry66
- Start date
Around here, unless you're doing infill in the city center, the zoning requirements on lot size don't allow the developers to build many homes on a parcel, so they have to go big and expensive. The same parcel with smaller lots could easily handle twice as many units as what's allowed.
A few years back, Habitat got ahold of a few acres in an "island" inside the city, but it was on the "poor" side of downtown and would have only been able to handle maybe a half dozen homes under normal rules. Since it was Habitat and due to the "undesirable" location, they threw out the rulebook and turned Habitat loose. They put in about two dozen standalone homes and have a nice little neighborhood going where people can get a foothold and generate wealth over time. Private developers have proposed doing similar projects outside the city core and have been shot down repeatedly.
Just saw this stat from a home builder:
Median income in 2004: $42,500
Median Home Price 2004: $184,000
4.3 times your income
Median Income 2024: $54,000
Median Home Price 2024:$532,000
9.8 times your income
Most likely no or maybe a little bit (unless the population drastically increases). You just need more Bitcoin. The next 30 years are going to be rocky in the real estate market in my opinion.
Lots of Boomers dying, declining birth rates, and capital flowing out of real estate into Bitcoin. The prime time locations will continue to do well, but not sure about the rest. They’ll most likely increase in value, but it will continue to get crushed by Bitcoin.
Wealthy people aren’t going to want the counterparty risk of owning real estate. You have to f#ck with government, taxes, and it’s not very liquid. Not to mention their short Bitcoin currently. Bitcoin is a no brainer for them.
Last edited:
Well, the US is about 5M single family homes short and we have allowed 10M illegals to enter so demand should hold steady.
That’s one part of demand. What percentage of single family homes are owned by businesses as investments?
Edit: I’ll also clarify. I’m questioning the narrative that we need more housing than we currently have. If the population increases 100 million people over the next 2 decades they’re going to build more homes. You’re certainly correct.
Last edited:
Do you mean multifamily homes or apartments? If so, still a shortage.
Apartment Supply Shortage
If you mean commercial space, then that's where issues arise, essentially with office.
I’m including all real estate. My premise is demographics and capital flowing out of real estate will take care of the shortage and prices.Do you mean multifamily homes or apartments? If so, still a shortage.
Apartment Supply Shortage
www.nmhc.org
If you mean commercial space, then that's where issues arise, essentially with office.
Maybe. I think that is too general way to look at it for too long of term. And using "rocky" is too subjective. Kind of like "pay their fair share."
Will BTC be better than RE the next 30 years? I'd say it's likely. But I'm a stock market guy and while I have some in crypto, everything else is in stocks.
Gotcha. I think real estate will continue to increase in fiat currency value, but underperform against BTC as it gets repriced to its utility value. I do think prime real estate will continue to do extremely well. That’s why I used rocky. I agree it subjective.
What is prime real estate in your opinion? My buddy asked if I want to go in on a Buc- ees in Western Iowa.
Does that count?
Unlikely, but possible. If people start flocking there and it grows a bunch, maybe. Generally though I was referring to beachfront properties, in desirable locations and etc.
Definitionally is prime real estate not simply something that will appreciate in value?
It would need to appreciate at a value equal to or greater than other scarce assets is how I think of it.
