Methodology: Nothing fancy or even scientific, I just weighted SP+, FPI and Sagarin equally and averaged them. A lower score is better (higher is worse). Bold denotes remaining opponents for the Hoosiers:
1. Ohio State 2.33
2. Wisconsin 6.33
3. @Penn State 10.67
4. @Michigan State 18.00
5. Michigan 22.00
6. Iowa 24.33
7. @Maryland 28.33
8. @Nebraska 37.67
9. Indiana 48.33
10. Minnesota 51.00
11. @Purdue 72.33
12. Northwestern 72.33
13. Illinois 84.33
14. Rutgers 109.00
We are currently favored vs Rutgers, vs Northwestern and @ Purdue. That would be six wins. We are dogs in the remaining games but interestingly FPI has the most likely upset as Michigan, giving us a 30.2 percent chance to win at home.
As to Michigan State, FPI gives us a 14.4 chance of winning (not very good). BUT, because of the way State plays it may very well be a one possession game going into the fourth quarter. All I ever ask for is the ball with a chance to win, though scoring on demand against that D is a tough ask.
1. Ohio State 2.33
2. Wisconsin 6.33
3. @Penn State 10.67
4. @Michigan State 18.00
5. Michigan 22.00
6. Iowa 24.33
7. @Maryland 28.33
8. @Nebraska 37.67
9. Indiana 48.33
10. Minnesota 51.00
11. @Purdue 72.33
12. Northwestern 72.33
13. Illinois 84.33
14. Rutgers 109.00
We are currently favored vs Rutgers, vs Northwestern and @ Purdue. That would be six wins. We are dogs in the remaining games but interestingly FPI has the most likely upset as Michigan, giving us a 30.2 percent chance to win at home.
As to Michigan State, FPI gives us a 14.4 chance of winning (not very good). BUT, because of the way State plays it may very well be a one possession game going into the fourth quarter. All I ever ask for is the ball with a chance to win, though scoring on demand against that D is a tough ask.