B1G Power Rankings / Path to Six

[daddyhoosier]

Methodology: Nothing fancy or even scientific, I just weighted SP+, FPI and Sagarin equally and averaged them. A lower score is better (higher is worse). Bold denotes remaining opponents for the Hoosiers:

1. Ohio State 2.33
2. Wisconsin 6.33
3. @Penn State 10.67
4. @Michigan State 18.00
5. Michigan 22.00
6. Iowa 24.33
7. @Maryland 28.33
8. @Nebraska 37.67
9. Indiana 48.33
10. Minnesota 51.00
11. @Purdue 72.33
12. Northwestern 72.33
13. Illinois 84.33
14. Rutgers 109.00

We are currently favored vs Rutgers, vs Northwestern and @ Purdue. That would be six wins. We are dogs in the remaining games but interestingly FPI has the most likely upset as Michigan, giving us a 30.2 percent chance to win at home.

As to Michigan State, FPI gives us a 14.4 chance of winning (not very good). BUT, because of the way State plays it may very well be a one possession game going into the fourth quarter. All I ever ask for is the ball with a chance to win, though scoring on demand against that D is a tough ask.

 

[Palmbeachhoosier]

Methodology: Nothing fancy or even scientific, I just weighted SP+, FPI and Sagarin equally and averaged them. A lower score is better (higher is worse). Bold denotes remaining opponents for the Hoosiers:

1. Ohio State 2.33
2. Wisconsin 6.33
3. @Penn State 10.67
4. @Michigan State 18.00
5. Michigan 22.00
6. Iowa 24.33
7. @Maryland 28.33
8. @Nebraska 37.67
9. Indiana 48.33
10. Minnesota 51.00
11. @Purdue 72.33
12. Northwestern 72.33
13. Illinois 84.33
14. Rutgers 109.00

We are currently favored vs Rutgers, vs Northwestern and @ Purdue. That would be six wins. We are dogs in the remaining games but interestingly FPI has the most likely upset as Michigan, giving us a 30.2 percent chance to win at home.

As to Michigan State, FPI gives us a 14.4 chance of winning (not very good). BUT, because of the way State plays it may very well be a one possession game going into the fourth quarter. All I ever ask for is the ball with a chance to win, though scoring on demand against that D is a tough ask.

I still don’t understand all the love for Nebraska? I watched the Illinois game. They are like I thought an injury to Adrian Martinez away from being a really bad team.

 

[daddyhoosier]

I still don’t understand all the love for Nebraska? I watched the Illinois game. They are like I thought an injury to Adrian Martinez away from being a really bad team.

These indexes are more oriented toward projecting forward than evaluating present resumes. With that said I hear you. Sometimes I feel like the Nebraska hype is more about pandering to their large and loyal fan base than it is a reflection of actual reality. I am not that impressed with Scott Frost and there is nothing about the Huskers that makes me shake in my boots. They probably have more raw talent than IU but that doesn't automatically mean that said talent has been developed. I'm not saying it will happen but I wouldn't be shocked if we beat Nebraska in Lincoln.

 

[fkfootball]

We need to catch a break, like Martinez missing the game against us or something. How many times do WE give some of these Big Ten teams a break? It’s IUs turn now.

 

[IndyIUFan66]

Saw Inside Indiana Week 4 B10 rankings, still had IU #11. With schedule this week (MD at PSU, MN at PU, OSU @ NE and IU game. Here’s one to consider: if IU pulled the MSU upset, and all other games went as likely, IU could jump to 6 in that B10 weekly. (OSU, Wisconsin, PSU, Iowa, UM (still gets nod over IU, then IU). Wouldn’t that be wild?

 

[IUCol]

We need to catch a break, like Martinez missing the game against us or something. How many times do WE give some of these Big Ten teams a break? It’s IUs turn now.

From your fingers to the FB God's ear...

 

[iubud]

Nebraska didn't impress me against a team that only beat UConn by 8. UConn is terrible. Illinois is bad. Give Nebraska credit, they did win. That game showed me that Nebraska is a more likely win than at Purdue.

Purdue has two losses. One of those was without their starting QB. I expect they will recover as they did last year. They are beatable.

UM might be so demoralized when we play them that it won't be much of an upset to beat them. They have problems. Will they turn things around or turn on each other?

Our best chances for wins in order are Rutgers, NW. Nebraska, Purdue, UM.

 

[IndyIUFan66]

Nebraska didn't impress me against a team that only beat UConn by 8. UConn is terrible. Illinois is bad. Give Nebraska credit, they did win. That game showed me that Nebraska is a more likely win than at Purdue.

Purdue has two losses. One of those was without their starting QB. I expect they will recover as they did last year. They are beatable.

UM might be so demoralized when we play them that it won't be much of an upset to beat them. They have problems. Will they turn things around or turn on each other?

Our best chances for wins in order are Rutgers, NW. Nebraska, Purdue, UM.

Wow, run that table and you'd have 8 win season. You don't have MD in there but I think they are beatable too. Hence, why I say 6 is the floor but I could see more this season. Looking forward to the MSU challenge with Penix. I think WR crew we have and Hendershot's play at TE could do some damage and then open things up for Scott to pound away on the ground.

And look at one player of game (spec teams?) vs. UConn - T. Mullen a true FR. He has a fighting spirit and guarantee he is not backing down against anyone, he thinks he can beat them all. Cam Jones - he's a beast in the making. Head/Ziemba - starting to make things happen. Point is there are a lot of YOUNG, good players starting to evolve!

 

[fpeaugh]

My odds of us winning the remaining games:
@MSU 20%
Rutgers 90%
@Maryland 25%
@Nebraska 25%
Northwestern 60%
@PSU 5%
Michigan 30%
@Purdue 20%

 

[Sope Creek]

Methodology: Nothing fancy or even scientific, I just weighted SP+, FPI and Sagarin equally and averaged them. A lower score is better (higher is worse). Bold denotes remaining opponents for the Hoosiers:

1. Ohio State 2.33
2. Wisconsin 6.33
3. @Penn State 10.67
4. @Michigan State 18.00
5. Michigan 22.00
6. Iowa 24.33
7. @Maryland 28.33
8. @Nebraska 37.67
9. Indiana 48.33
10. Minnesota 51.00
11. @Purdue 72.33
12. Northwestern 72.33
13. Illinois 84.33
14. Rutgers 109.00

We are currently favored vs Rutgers, vs Northwestern and @ Purdue. That would be six wins. We are dogs in the remaining games but interestingly FPI has the most likely upset as Michigan, giving us a 30.2 percent chance to win at home.

As to Michigan State, FPI gives us a 14.4 chance of winning (not very good). BUT, because of the way State plays it may very well be a one possession game going into the fourth quarter. All I ever ask for is the ball with a chance to win, though scoring on demand against that D is a tough ask.

Quality post. Thank you for that.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

My odds of us winning the remaining games:
@MSU 25%
Rutgers 90%
@Maryland 45%
@Nebraska 35%
Northwestern 60%
@PSU 15%
Michigan 40%
@Purdue 50%

fify

If you don't think IU has a fifty percent chance of beating you guys, you are insane...20%...lol

 

[Palmbeachhoosier]

fify

If you don't think IU has a fifty percent chance of beating you guys, you are insane...20%...lol

I guess he believes his boys are on par with Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska and Maryland according to hishandicapping.

 

[Tsnider30]

Purdue looks awful this year. It was just masked in 1 game by brohm being a great offensive mind and that still ended in his qb getting a concussion. They will be lucky to hit 6 wins

 

[IndyIUFan66]

My odds of us winning the remaining games:
@MSU 20%
Rutgers 90%
@Maryland 25%
@Nebraska 25%
Northwestern 60%
@PSU 5%
Michigan 30%
@Purdue 20%

Things could change by end of season but 20% at Purdue? Seems light to me. I am more bullish on all but say PSU on road. Not saying will run the table, but am saying higher than 20-30% you have for many.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I guess he believes his boys are on par with Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska and Maryland according to hishandicapping.

Fans are fans, but when you spend your life trolling your obsession...sick.

 

[fkfootball]

Purdue is horrible. Maryland and Nebraska are extremely overrated. There has to be 6 wins in here somewhere.

 

[LeConte]

#9WinIndiana

Believe.

 

[iubud]

Wow, run that table and you'd have 8 win season. You don't have MD in there but I think they are beatable too. Hence, why I say 6 is the floor but I could see more this season. Looking forward to the MSU challenge with Penix. I think WR crew we have and Hendershot's play at TE could do some damage and then open things up for Scott to pound away on the ground.

And look at one player of game (spec teams?) vs. UConn - T. Mullen a true FR. He has a fighting spirit and guarantee he is not backing down against anyone, he thinks he can beat them all. Cam Jones - he's a beast in the making. Head/Ziemba - starting to make things happen. Point is there are a lot of YOUNG, good players starting to evolve!

I have been very impressed with Jones. Ziemba and Mullen are on the verge of getting some deserved attention. Young players that achieve can attract others to join them. I'm looking to see if they inspire others to raise their level of play. We need that this week.

Another game against a good opponent is what our young players need. A win would be the best experience.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

Things could change by end of season but 20% at Purdue? Seems light to me. I am more bullish on all but say PSU on road. Not saying will run the table, but am saying higher than 20-30% you have for many.

Allen botched it last year. He had Purdue at home for a winner-goes-to-bowl and his defense must have not known Moore was playing. Pitiful preparation and a total choke job. I don’t see him winning on the road up there. Purdue hasn’t been able to run the ball. Our only hope is Sindelar is limited and they lose more defensive guys. Our secondary is awful and will get torched.

 

[fpeaugh]

I guess he believes his boys are on par with Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska and Maryland according to hishandicapping.

You think there’s any difference in home vs away genius?

 

[fpeaugh]

Things could change by end of season but 20% at Purdue? Seems light to me. I am more bullish on all but say PSU on road. Not saying will run the table, but am saying higher than 20-30% you have for many.

I think Brohm has Allen’s number and it’s at Purdue. 20% might be high if anything. Other games are much more winnable.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I still don’t understand all the love for Nebraska? I watched the Illinois game. They are like I thought an injury to Adrian Martinez away from being a really bad team.

They had 690 yards total offense.

A week before they beat a pretty good N. Illinois team a lot more convincingly than Utah had the week prior. They are clearly better than us, but not as good as advertised prior to the season.

Edit....690 yds TO v. 299. 4 TOs v. 1 for Illinois. 346 rush yds for Nebraska

The week before.....beat N. Illinois 44-8. 525 yds TO, 238 yds rushing v. 350 yds TO for N. Illinois.

Utah beat N. Illinois earlier this year 35-17...407 yds TO for Utah, 302 for N. Illinois.

So Nebraska's suckiness has definitely been over-stated. They are much better than us offensively, and probably about the same defensively. The odds of us winning before 85000 in Lincoln? 15%. now IF Martinez was injured, or they have 4 TOs like they did v. Illinois.......

 

[turney333]

Purdue looks awful this year. It was just masked in 1 game by brohm being a great offensive mind and that still ended in his qb getting a concussion. They will be lucky to hit 6 wins

From what I have seen so far, I think they might be lucky to hit 4. Definitely looks like's Brohm's weakest team since he has been there. A poor performance against Minny this weekend, and I think a 1-11/2-10 season could be in play. Maybe they rebound, but as of right now I have seen no evidence that they can.

They got off to a slow start last year, but they lost 3 close games to decent to good teams - Last year's EMU was probably better than Nevada/Vandy this year. This year, they have lost to a bad Nevada team, won against a terrible Vanderbilt, and weren't even competitive against an at best decent TCU.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Wow, run that table and you'd have 8 win season. You don't have MD in there but I think they are beatable too. Hence, why I say 6 is the floor but I could see more this season. Looking forward to the MSU challenge with Penix. I think WR crew we have and Hendershot's play at TE could do some damage and then open things up for Scott to pound away on the ground.

And look at one player of game (spec teams?) vs. UConn - T. Mullen a true FR. He has a fighting spirit and guarantee he is not backing down against anyone, he thinks he can beat them all. Cam Jones - he's a beast in the making. Head/Ziemba - starting to make things happen. Point is there are a lot of YOUNG, good players starting to evolve!

I think we've got more young defensive talent than at any time in the past 30 years.

I really like Ziemba....he reminds me of a young Wisconsin DE, and McFadden reminds me of a young Wisky LB. Head's going to be good. Robbins' got talent, but looks a little small. Miller's got a ton of potential at LB. Bonhomme looks the part. I've noticed Casey's play on STs. Mullen's a stud, as is C. Jones. Johnson, Fitz, Matthews are potential stars. Layne, Reece T., and J. Williams may lack star quality but they're good enough to be starters if need be. Then we have guys we haven't really seen yet like Cam Williams, Norris (waiting on him to show something), Josh S., Tracy or all those freshman DTs--Sio, Whitner, Passmore, Person....are they going to contribute more this year?

So....it's exciting see all the potential there.....just need the productivity to come closer to the hype, and soon.

 

[Indianaftw]

They had 690 yards total offense.

A week before they beat a pretty good N. Illinois team a lot more convincingly than Utah had the week prior. They are clearly better than us, but not as good as advertised prior to the season.

This week could be the worst home loss in knu history...I hope so they get no love from this guy.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

From what I have seen so far, I think they might be lucky to hit 4. Definitely looks like's Brohm's weakest team since he has been there. A poor performance against Minny this weekend, and I think a 1-11/2-10 season could be in play. Maybe they rebound, but as of right now I have seen no evidence that they can.

They got off to a slow start last year, but they lost 3 close games to decent to good teams - Last year's EMU was probably better than Nevada/Vandy this year. This year, they have lost to a bad Nevada team, won against a terrible Vanderbilt, and weren't even competitive against an at best decent TCU.

If IU cannot get any more pass rush than they have been, Purdue’s QB (whoever it is at that game) will torch our secondary. Our secondary is bad. These guys like Ball and Fitzgerald and Brown are out of their element.
Taiwan Mullen looks very promising but #2 back there..... that was a bad move. Get him back on offense. His head is spinning and 5 yards behind the WR. Shelby and Hiller are officially on the pink slip watch.

 

[Jssanto]

Nebraska didn't impress me against a team that only beat UConn by 8. UConn is terrible. Illinois is bad. Give Nebraska credit, they did win. That game showed me that Nebraska is a more likely win than at Purdue.

Purdue has two losses. One of those was without their starting QB. I expect they will recover as they did last year. They are beatable.

UM might be so demoralized when we play them that it won't be much of an upset to beat them. They have problems. Will they turn things around or turn on each other?

Our best chances for wins in order are Rutgers, NW. Nebraska, Purdue, UM.

Where should we put Maryland?

 

[turney333]

If IU cannot get any more pass rush than they have been, Purdue’s QB (whoever it is at that game) will torch our secondary. Our secondary is bad. These guys like Ball and Fitzgerald and Brown are out of their element.
Taiwan Mullen looks very promising but #2 back there..... that was a bad move. Get him back on offense. His head is spinning and 5 yards behind the WR. Shelby and Hiller are officially on the pink slip watch.

Purdue does have dangerous weapons, but their OL/RBs are on par with UConn. Plus I think Purdue's defense might be worse than UConn

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

Purdue does have dangerous weapons, but their OL/RBs are on par with UConn. Plus I think Purdue's defense might be worse than UConn

Purdue’s defense has a pretty good secondary. I’d trade theirs for ours. They are at least aggressive. I’ve watched their games. DL is better than ours. Hell - their whole defense is better than what we have playing right now. I think we look very slow. LBs are not Big Ten caliber with exception of our rover, Cam Jones. I cannot believe how slow Jones, McFadden and Allen are. They cannot be playing at this level.

Development of our DL is concerning.

 

[Bowlmania]

Purdue’s defense has a pretty good secondary. I’d trade theirs for ours. They are at least aggressive. I’ve watched their games.

Your eyes are deceiving you. Purdue has been getting torched through the air (and on the ground for that matter), and their total D is among the worst in the country.

 

[turney333]

Purdue’s defense has a pretty good secondary. I’d trade theirs for ours. They are at least aggressive. I’ve watched their games. DL is better than ours. Hell - their whole defense is better than what we have playing right now. I think we look very slow. LBs are not Big Ten caliber with exception of our rover, Cam Jones. I cannot believe how slow Jones, McFadden and Allen are. They cannot be playing at this level.

Development of our DL is concerning.

Nevada's offense is probably only a little better than UConn's, and they hung 31 on Purdue.

Purdue played a decent but not great TCU offense, and just got pounded into the ground.

 

[turney333]

Your eyes are deceiving you. Purdue has been getting torched through the air (and on the ground for that matter), and their total D is among the worst in the country.

And that's while playing the 52nd, 98th, and 99th teams in total offense

 

[Pigalow]

They had 690 yards total offense.

A week before they beat a pretty good N. Illinois team a lot more convincingly than Utah had the week prior. They are clearly better than us, but not as good as advertised prior to the season.

Edit....690 yds TO v. 299. 4 TOs v. 1 for Illinois. 346 rush yds for Nebraska

The week before.....beat N. Illinois 44-8. 525 yds TO, 238 yds rushing v. 350 yds TO for N. Illinois.

Utah beat N. Illinois earlier this year 35-17...407 yds TO for Utah, 302 for N. Illinois.

So Nebraska's suckiness has definitely been over-stated. They are much better than us offensively, and probably about the same defensively. The odds of us winning before 85000 in Lincoln? 15%. now IF Martinez was injured, or they have 4 TOs like they did v. Illinois.......

Unfortunately, he's correct. Nebraska is better than the results might indicate, not worse. I watched their loss vs. Colorado & they had no business losing that game, although I will say a HUGE reason they did lose was haltime adjustments, Frost got stomped in that department, so, perhaps that will become a trend for them Regardless though, that will be a very tough assignment for us.

Purdue is horrible. Maryland and Nebraska are extremely overrated. There has to be 6 wins in here somewhere.

I actually think Northwestern & Michigan, believe it or not, might be our best shots to win 6. Purdue is just underachieving at the moment, which is a trend for them under Brohm early in seasons. Wining in Lincoln Nebraska is just...hard to imagine, & I think they were certainly overhyped going into the season, but they have a lot of talent. Maryland is a wildly different team week to week, so who knows. I really want to see how we play this week before I get a really accurate feeling about the season. 1 thing's for sure, we're going to need Penix healthy to have a shot. Ramsey has been very efficient, very good for the most part, but as we saw vs OSU, his efficiency drops dramatically as the speed of defenses increases.
all QB's efficiency drops,, but his REALLY does.

 

[turney333]

Purdue is just underachieving at the moment, which is a trend for them under Brohm early in seasons.

In 2017, Purdue started 3-2 with with competitive losses to 8-4 Louisville with Lamar Jackson (Purdue held a 4th quarter lead) and 8-4 Michigan (Purdue held a lead late in the 3rd quarter).

In 2018, Purdue did start 0-3, but with close losses to a 9-5 NW and 8-5 Missouri. Even EMU was a decent MAC team, and is at most Brohm's 6th worst loss at Purdue: 2017 Rutgers, 2018 Auburn and Minny, and 2019 Nevada and TCU being worse. Auburn, Minny, and TCU were/are all much better than EMU, but Purdue was absolutely dismantled in those games.

Those weren't exactly slow starts, generally good to decent performances with losses being some combination of bad luck and good opponents

Purdue has looked BAD to start 2019.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

In 2017, Purdue started 3-2 with with competitive losses to 8-4 Louisville with Lamar Jackson (Purdue held a 4th quarter lead) and 8-4 Michigan (Purdue held a lead late in the 3rd quarter).

In 2018, Purdue did start 0-3, but with close losses to a 9-5 NW and 8-5 Missouri. Even EMU was a decent MAC team, and is at most Brohm's 6th worst loss at Purdue: 2017 Rutgers, 2018 Auburn and Minny, and 2019 Nevada and TCU being worse. Auburn, Minny, and TCU were/are all much better than EMU, but Purdue was absolutely dismantled in those games.

Those weren't exactly slow starts, generally good to decent performances with losses being some combination of bad luck and good opponents

Purdue has looked BAD to start 2019.

And.....when we all start to discount them, they will rattle off a winning streak at the end of the year.

I see them beating Minny, Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern and Indiana for minimum 7 wins.

All but Northwestern is at home.

Brohm will once again make mince-meat of Allen, unfortunately.

 

[IU PU Rivalry]

And.....when we all start to discount them, they will rattle off a winning streak at the end of the year.

I see them beating Minny, Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern and Indiana for minimum 7 wins.

All but Northwestern is at home.

Brohm will once again make mince-meat of Allen, unfortunately.

PU QB was #1 in the nation with 900 yds and 9 TDs through two games. Brohm's bone headed play calling got that QB concussed and missed the TCU game, leading to a blowout loss. If he plays against IU, look out.

 

[turney333]

And.....when we all start to discount them, they will rattle off a winning streak at the end of the year.

I see them beating Minny, Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern and Indiana for minimum 7 wins.

All but Northwestern is at home.

Brohm will once again make mince-meat of Allen, unfortunately.

They could rebound, and they have a schedule feasible for that to happen. I'm just saying that they have much farther to climb than the last 2 years, with them having the worst OL and worst overall defense of Brohm's time at Purdue

 

[IUCX9]

Methodology: Nothing fancy or even scientific, I just weighted SP+, FPI and Sagarin equally and averaged them. A lower score is better (higher is worse). Bold denotes remaining opponents for the Hoosiers:

1. Ohio State 2.33
2. Wisconsin 6.33
3. @Penn State 10.67
4. @Michigan State 18.00
5. Michigan 22.00
6. Iowa 24.33
7. @Maryland 28.33
8. @Nebraska 37.67
9. Indiana 48.33
10. Minnesota 51.00
11. @Purdue 72.33
12. Northwestern 72.33
13. Illinois 84.33
14. Rutgers 109.00

We are currently favored vs Rutgers, vs Northwestern and @ Purdue. That would be six wins. We are dogs in the remaining games but interestingly FPI has the most likely upset as Michigan, giving us a 30.2 percent chance to win at home.

As to Michigan State, FPI gives us a 14.4 chance of winning (not very good). BUT, because of the way State plays it may very well be a one possession game going into the fourth quarter. All I ever ask for is the ball with a chance to win, though scoring on demand against that D is a tough ask.

I would love to be bowl eligible before the bucket game.

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

They could rebound, and they have a schedule feasible for that to happen. I'm just saying that they have much farther to climb than the last 2 years, with them having the worst OL and worst overall defense of Brohm's time at Purdue

I watch other Big Ten games frequently and I can tell you right now that Purdue’s defense is better than ours at the moment. They got beat by TCU who has pretty good lines but TCU would do the same to us.

 

[76-1]

I watch other Big Ten games frequently and I can tell you right now that Purdue’s defense is better than ours at the moment. They got beat by TCU who has pretty good lines but TCU would do the same to us.

This defense? The one that got waxed by historic proportions against Auburn, completely blew their matchup against what should have been a walkover against Nevada and literally got run over by TCU? Those guys?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ord-points-music-city-bowl-purdue/2434646002/

You've shown your true colors...