What does contact tracing/community testing data tell us about actual probability of
#COVID19 transmission(infection rate), high risk environments/age? (Long thread)
Summary:
While the infectious inoculum required for infection is unknown, these studies indicate that close & prolonged contact is required for
#COVID19 transmission. The risk is highest in enclosed environments; household, long-term care facilities and public transport.
High infection rates seen in household, friend & family gatherings, transport suggest that closed contacts in congregation is likely the key driver of productive transmission. Casual, short interactions are not the main driver of the epidemic though keep social distancing!
Increased rates of infection seen in enclosed & connected environments is in keeping with high infection rates seen in megacities, deprived areas, shelters. A recent preprint demonstrates that
#COVID19 epidemic intensity is strongly shaped by crowding
In conclusion, contact tracing data is crucial to understand real transmission dynamics.
Cautionary note: This data & interpretation is based on the available evidence as of May 4th. Our understanding might change based on community testing/lifting lockdown measures.