16 Nobel Prize-winning economists: If he wins, the Trump agenda will reignite inflation

[outside shooter]

A out-of-control spender: Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new 10-year borrowing during his term — nearly twice as much as President Joe Biden has so far in office,

Heavily relies on bad "research"

Not only does Trump want to extend his 2017 tax cuts — a move that the Congressional Budget Office warns would cost nearly $5 trillion — but the former president recently told CEOs during a closed-door meeting that he’d like to cut the corporate tax rate even further.

He's for raising tariffs on China and all other trading partners — a move that Moody’s Analytics predicted would kill jobs and worsen inflation.

Moody’s Analytics cautioned that if Republicans sweep into power in November, a toxic mix of higher tariffs, fewer immigrants and tax cut-fueled stimulus would cause inflation to reaccelerate, unemployment to climb above 5% and the US economy to stumble into a recession.

By contrast, Moody’s found that if Biden wins and there is a divided Congress, the Fed will start cutting interest rates, inflation will go back to normal and the US economy will avoid a recession.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/26/business/nobel-economists-trump-inflation/index.html

 

[mcmurtry66]

A out-of-control spender: Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new 10-year borrowing during his term — nearly twice as much as President Joe Biden has so far in office,

Heavily relies on bad "research"

Not only does Trump want to extend his 2017 tax cuts — a move that the Congressional Budget Office warns would cost nearly $5 trillion — but the former president recently told CEOs during a closed-door meeting that he’d like to cut the corporate tax rate even further.

He's for raising tariffs on China and all other trading partners — a move that Moody’s Analytics predicted would kill jobs and worsen inflation.

Moody’s Analytics cautioned that if Republicans sweep into power in November, a toxic mix of higher tariffs, fewer immigrants and tax cut-fueled stimulus would cause inflation to reaccelerate, unemployment to climb above 5% and the US economy to stumble into a recession.

By contrast, Moody’s found that if Biden wins and there is a divided Congress, the Fed will start cutting interest rates, inflation will go back to normal and the US economy will avoid a recession.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/26/business/nobel-economists-trump-inflation/index.html

Yes but we already know what Biden did to our inflation. So one calls for speculation the other has evidence. Biden wants cradle to grave benefits. The largest social safety net etc. we saw what that stimulus did. And he wanted more

All that said what we have heard from trump would not be good either for prices

 

[Spartans9312]

Yes but we already know what Biden did to our inflation. So one calls for speculation the other has evidence. Biden wants cradle to grave benefits. The largest social safety net etc. we saw what that stimulus did. And he wanted more

He lives in a theoretical world…,so the post is par for the course

 

[mcmurtry66]

He lives in a theoretical world…,so the post is par for the course

Correct

 

[mcmurtry66]

He lives in a theoretical world…,so the post is par for the course

It takes balls or stupidity to post like that after we have actual evidence of Biden’s contribution

 

[Spartans9312]

It takes balls or stupidity to post like that after we have actual evidence of Biden’s contribution

50-50 that it’s something he read on Facebook

 

[stollcpa]

A out-of-control spender: Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new 10-year borrowing during his term — nearly twice as much as President Joe Biden has so far in office,

Heavily relies on bad "research"

Not only does Trump want to extend his 2017 tax cuts — a move that the Congressional Budget Office warns would cost nearly $5 trillion — but the former president recently told CEOs during a closed-door meeting that he’d like to cut the corporate tax rate even further.

He's for raising tariffs on China and all other trading partners — a move that Moody’s Analytics predicted would kill jobs and worsen inflation.

Moody’s Analytics cautioned that if Republicans sweep into power in November, a toxic mix of higher tariffs, fewer immigrants and tax cut-fueled stimulus would cause inflation to reaccelerate, unemployment to climb above 5% and the US economy to stumble into a recession.

By contrast, Moody’s found that if Biden wins and there is a divided Congress, the Fed will start cutting interest rates, inflation will go back to normal and the US economy will avoid a recession.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/26/business/nobel-economists-trump-inflation/index.html

Damn, couldn’t they find 51. 😂

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

“In the letter, the 16 Nobel economists expressed concern about the rule of law and stability if Trump wins the White House again.

Among the most important determinants of economics success are the rule of law and economic and policy certainty,” the letter said. “Donald Trump and the vagaries of his action and policies threaten this stability and the US’s standing in the world.”

And there it is.

Orange Man Bad.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Appeal to authority in the thread title, I'm out. Revenues went UP after Trump's cuts btw....

 

[stollcpa]

“In the letter, the 16 Nobel economists expressed concern about the rule of law and stability if Trump wins the White House again.

Among the most important determinants of economics success are the rule of law and economic and policy certainty,” the letter said. “Donald Trump and the vagaries of his action and policies threaten this stability and the US’s standing in the world.”

And there it is.

Orange Man Bad.

I guess that’s explains where we are right now. We have no rule of law except Biden lawfair.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I guess that’s explains where we are right now. We have no rule of law except Biden lawfair.

We saw what prices did under Biden yet our resident conservative is going to prop him up? Bizarro

 

[outside shooter]

...we have actual evidence of Biden’s contribution

A dispassionate analysis, in a WORLD CONTEXT, would indicate that the US economic juggernaut carried the world economy through a disastrous post-COVID worldwide-except-for-USA recession.

Be thankful the 2020 election ended the way it did, or the Dow would be at 35,000, Inflation would probably be easing back to single digits after reaching double digits, and Putin and Trump would be hugging in Kiev to jointly celebrate successful Russian expansion.

There's a reason why I refer to it as COVID-45, not COVID-19. His disastrous "leadership" contributed greatly to the world economic collapse and thankfully the blow was softened here. Sure it was painful, but we were spared what most of the rest of the world went through.

 

[snarlcakes]

Appeal to authority in the thread title, I'm out. Revenues went UP after Trump's cuts btw....

Reality, unfortunately, doesn’t matter anymore. Headlines and models drive human emotions and people’s own “reality”.

 

[mcmurtry66]

A dispassionate analysis, in a WORLD CONTEXT, would indicate that the US economic juggernaut carried the world economy through a disastrous post-COVID worldwide-except-for-USA recession.

Be thankful the 2020 election ended the way it did, or the Dow would be at 35,000, Inflation would probably be easing back to single digits after reaching double digits, and Putin and Trump would be hugging in Kiev to jointly celebrate successful Russian expansion.

There's a reason why I refer to it as COVID-45, not COVID-19. His disastrous "leadership" contributed greatly to the world economic collapse and thankfully the blow was softened here. Sure it was painful, but we were spared what most of the rest of the world went through.

We live here. We know what mistakes Biden made to elevate prices. There are so many variables to try and compare to other places. Here. That’s what matters. And Biden overheated the economy which exacerbated prices that we have now been stuck with and likely will continue to be stuck with going forward. Would trump have done that? Maybe. I don’t know. But I know Biden did. What’s worse is that it was part of an agenda. An agenda to expand our welfare state not just address a novel occurrence. On domestic shit Biden is Bernie. A progressive. There are consequences to that reality

And he’s still trying with student loans

 

[All4You]

Every time I read that a tax cut will "cost" the government a certain amount of money, in this case 5 trillion dollars, I am comforted by the fact that 5 trillion dollars is left is the pockets of the American people and American businesses. I feel the same about the term "budget cuts" when the reality is most of them aren't actually cuts, it's just that the annual increase to the budget is lower than the forecast, yet still an increase year over year.

How about this novel approach, as all financially responsible people are expected to do, the government can live within it's means and only fund that which is necessary?

 

[mcmurtry66]

Every time I read that a tax cut will "cost" the government a certain amount of money, in this case 5 trillion dollars, I am comforted by the fact that 5 trillion dollars in left is the pockets of the American people and American businesses. I feel the same about the term "budget cuts" when the reality is most of them aren't actually cuts, it's just that the annual increase to the budget is lower than the forecast, yet still an increase year over year.

How about this novel approach, as all financially responsible people are expected to do, the government can live within it's means and only fund that which is necessary?

Can’t buy votes that way

 

[outside shooter]

How about this novel approach, as all financially responsible people are expected to do, the government can live within it's means and only fund that which is necessary?

I'm totally with you on that. Proposals need sound data on how they are paid for.

But we can also make billionaires pay their fair share so that we can better pay for what's already been spent. If your credit card balance is sky high its not enough to stop using your credit card. You need income to pay off what you spent already.

It's not crazy to ask billionaires to pay rates that they paid throughout most of our history, before the 80s fat-cat tax breaks became permanent. Reagan tax breaks that were a very good idea at the time, with double digit inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. with a relatively small national debt. I certainly was solidly behind them. But the situation has changed. We can ask the billionaire CEO to have only 4 yachts instead of 5 and take home less of his 100 million dollar bonus in a year where his company laid off workers and moved production offshore.

 

[hoot1]

Can’t buy votes that way

Tax cuts and spending both buy votes. Only difference is they may be different voters.

Those pols who advocate tax cuts and those who propose more spending both tell us their proposals will pay for themselves.

The national debt tells a different story.

 

[snarlcakes]

I'm totally with you on that. Proposals need sound data on how they are paid for.

But we can also make billionaires pay their fair share so that we can better pay for what's already been spent. If your credit card balance is sky high its not enough to stop using your credit card. You need income to pay off what you spent already.

It's not crazy to ask billionaires to pay rates that they paid throughout most of our history, before the 80s fat-cat tax breaks became permanent. Reagan tax breaks that were a very good idea at the time, with double digit inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. with a relatively small national debt. I certainly was solidly behind them. But the situation has changed. We can ask the billionaire CEO to have only 4 yachts instead of 5 and take home less of his 100 million dollar bonus in a year where his company laid off workers and moved production offshore.

Yet, you provide no data. When did billionaire’s stop paying their fair share? Tax receipts have increased since the Trump tax cuts and the lowest year (in the past 55 years) was when Obama was in office. I’m sure we can both agree Obama isn’t against higher taxes than conservatives. The market cycles tend to drive tax receipts. The long term average is around 17% depending on the year you choose to start from.

US Tax Revenue: % of GDP, 1968 – 2024 | CEIC Data

US Tax revenue: % of GDP was reported at 16.4 % in Dec 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 18.5 % for Dec 2022.

www.ceicdata.com

 

[UncleMark]

Love the serious, content filled discussion.

 

[outside shooter]

When did billionaire’s stop paying their fair share?

1980-1988. See below.

I am not asking for a 94% tax rate again for the top earners, or even 69%. Hell, I'd be happy with 40% if loopholes are closed. So many write-offs are allowed that if you are a billionaire and pay over 5% in taxes, you are a chump.

Do you think Trump should pay less taxes than you? Less taxes than the people who empty his trash cans or scrub his gold toilet?

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Do you think Trump should pay less taxes than you? Less taxes than the people who empty his trash cans or scrub his gold toilet?

He doesn’t. Do you know what a marginal tax rate is? This is a line fed to morons by propagandists.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

He doesn’t. Do you know what a marginal tax rate is? This is a line fed to morons by propagandists.

Also 200K in 1960 is over 2 million today. But today the top marginal rate kicks in above 600k.

 

[Bowlmania]

A out-of-control spender: Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new 10-year borrowing during his term — nearly twice as much as President Joe Biden has so far in office,

Heavily relies on bad "research"

Not only does Trump want to extend his 2017 tax cuts — a move that the Congressional Budget Office warns would cost nearly $5 trillion — but the former president recently told CEOs during a closed-door meeting that he’d like to cut the corporate tax rate even further.

He's for raising tariffs on China and all other trading partners — a move that Moody’s Analytics predicted would kill jobs and worsen inflation.

Moody’s Analytics cautioned that if Republicans sweep into power in November, a toxic mix of higher tariffs, fewer immigrants and tax cut-fueled stimulus would cause inflation to reaccelerate, unemployment to climb above 5% and the US economy to stumble into a recession.

By contrast, Moody’s found that if Biden wins and there is a divided Congress, the Fed will start cutting interest rates, inflation will go back to normal and the US economy will avoid a recession.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/26/business/nobel-economists-trump-inflation/index.html

The so-called champion of the working man signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017, providing major tax breaks to corporations and wealthy individuals, and accomplishing little to nothing for everyone else. His tax cuts were a major reason for staggering growth in the annual deficit, and the national debt exploded under Trump even prior to the onset of the pandemic.

You mentioned Moody's and here's more from their analysis.

"Biden's policies are better for the economy," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "They lead to more growth and less inflation."

According to a Moody's study, Trump's economic plan would trigger a recession by mid-2025 and an economy that grows an average 1.3% annually during his four-year term vs. 2.1% under Biden. Next year, under a Trump administration, inflation would rise from the current 3.3% to 3.6%, well above the 2.4% forecast under Biden, the Moody's analysis shows. Compared with Biden, the US would have 3.2 million fewer jobs and a 4.5% unemployment rate, a half percentage point higher, at the end of a Trump term.

 

[outside shooter]

He doesn’t. Do you know what a marginal tax rate is?

Yes. Do you know about the long list of loopholes that lowers a marginal tax rate to an effective tax rate of zero or nearly zero?

That allows Trump to pay less than you or me or his pool boy.

 

[outside shooter]

50-50 that it’s something he read on Facebook

Wrong. CNN business page. Saw it while checking the markets. Damn... my 401K is though the roof. Thanks Joe!

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Yes. Do you know about the long list of loopholes that lowers a marginal tax rate to an effective tax rate of zero or nearly zero?

That allows Trump to pay less than you or me or his pool boy.

Yeah that’s another throw away line. If you want to tax unrealized gains just come out and say it.

 

[snarlcakes]

1980-1988. See below.

I am not asking for a 94% tax rate again for the top earners, or even 69%. Hell, I'd be happy with 40% if loopholes are closed. So many write-offs are allowed that if you are a billionaire and pay over 5% in taxes, you are a chump.

Do you think Trump should pay less taxes than you? Less taxes than the people who empty his trash cans or scrub his gold toilet?

My opinion is irrelevant. I’d cut the federal government in half and end payroll taxes if I was King for a day.

They never paid those rates because of loopholes. We have a very progressive tax system. Top 1% paid 46% of all income taxes in 2021.

Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2024 Update

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) made many significant, but temporary, changes to the individual income tax code to lower tax rates, widen brackets, increase the standard deduction and child tax credit, and more.

taxfoundation.org

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

Economists nail it about 50% of the time

 

[hoot1]

Yet, you provide no data. When did billionaire’s stop paying their fair share? Tax receipts have increased since the Trump tax cuts and the lowest year (in the past 55 years) was when Obama was in office. I’m sure we can both agree Obama isn’t against higher taxes than conservatives. The market cycles tend to drive tax receipts. The long term average is around 17% depending on the year you choose to start from.

US Tax Revenue: % of GDP, 1968 – 2024 | CEIC Data

US Tax revenue: % of GDP was reported at 16.4 % in Dec 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 18.5 % for Dec 2022.

www.ceicdata.com

1980-1988. See below.

I am not asking for a 94% tax rate again for the top earners, or even 69%. Hell, I'd be happy with 40% if loopholes are closed. So many write-offs are allowed that if you are a billionaire and pay over 5% in taxes, you are a chump.

Do you think Trump should pay less taxes than you? Less taxes than the people who empty his trash cans or scrub his gold toilet?

https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/60868250060f8ad8dd0c97eb/960x0.jpg
?fit=scale

The debate between Snarlcakes and Outside Shooter resembles the talking points of Dems and Pubs in Congress over the past decades. Also the kind of rhetoric delivered by a Biden or Trump.

Presidents can recommend or get Congress to cut taxes or raise spending depending on whether their party has a majority in the House. However, the major overhaul required to finally turn the deficit around requires a long term compromise between the two political parties.

Given the rancor and divisiveness between the parties in Congress and the ill will which is the predictable atmosphere to be seen in the upcoming presidential debate, what are the odds that the deficit problem will not linger indefinitely?

 

[snarlcakes]

Economists nail it about 50% of the time

Most Economists are fiat government paid shills. They’re just as dumb as the doctors performing blood letting in the 1700s.

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Most Economists are fiat government paid shills. They’re just as dumb as the doctors performing blood letting in the 1700s.

13/16 signed a letter saying BBB wouldn’t be inflationary. Shills indeed.

 

[mcmurtry66]

13/16 signed a letter saying BBB wouldn’t be inflationary. Shills indeed.

View embedded media

You’re a Kelley grad correct? Now with a Fortune 50 company? Where big business and commerce intersect? Charged with understanding inflationary trends and how they impact the movement of goods worldwide?

We’ll take your word for it

 

[stollcpa]

The debate between Snarlcakes and Outside Shooter resembles the talking points of Dems and Pubs in Congress over the past decades. Also the kind of rhetoric delivered by a Biden or Trump.

Presidents can recommend or get Congress to cut taxes or raise spending depending on whether their party has a majority in the House. However, the major overhaul required to finally turn the deficit around requires a long term compromise between the two political parties.

Given the rancor and divisiveness between the parties in Congress and the ill will which is the predictable atmosphere to be seen in the upcoming presidential debate, what are the odds that the deficit problem will not linger indefinitely?

Personally, I think there’s almost zero chance they will work together to fix it in my lifetime.

I’d start with means testing social secuity. Make cuts across the board to every program. I’d get rid of the departments of Education, Commerce and Energy. I’d make job cuts in every federal department. Congress and Senate would be limited to a couple aides. That’s my start.

 

[Ohio Guy]

Yes but we already know what Biden did to our inflation. So one calls for speculation the other has evidence. Biden wants cradle to grave benefits. The largest social safety net etc. we saw what that stimulus did. And he wanted more

All that said what we have heard from trump would not be good either for prices

You do know that what someone has done - especially when they're criticized for it - isn't always an indicator of what they will do, right?

And based on the OP, the Moodys analysts think a second Biden term would normalize the economy. Right or wrong, they're not saying that about your boy Trump.

 

[mcmurtry66]

You do know that what someone has done - especially when they're criticized for it - isn't always an indicator of what they will do, right?

And based on the OP, the Moodys analysts think a second Biden term would normalize the economy. Right or wrong, they're not saying that about your boy Trump.

1) let’s hear Biden won’t repeat 2020. Evidence with student loans and progressives on the s. Ct. Indicates otherwise.
2) monody’s analysts think is a euphemism for wild speculation. A guess. Will we have locked down Biden without congresss who can’t send out free cheese? What happens if he has control again like 2020?

What we have are price comparisons between trump in office and Biden. Data. Not conjecture

 

[mrhighlife]

I am all for raising taxes. But spending cuts need to coincide.

Neither will happen until lobbyists are banned from capital hill, retired elected officials can't become lobbyists,Citizen united is overturned and other things to take corporations out of our government. All they care about is their company making money and do not give a shit if they bankrupt America in the process.

 

[Bowlmania]

You do know that what someone has done - especially when they're criticized for it - isn't always an indicator of what they will do, right?

And based on the OP, the Moodys analysts think a second Biden term would normalize the economy. Right or wrong, they're not saying that about your boy Trump.

Just want to add Trump's trade policy and tariffs to the discussion.

Trade policy is where a US president wields the most economic influence and power, and Trump’s trade policy was a disaster. He started a trade war with China, a war that the United States ultimately lost. It cost the United States nearly 300,000 jobs and estimated $316 billion by the end of 2020. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University found US companies lost $1.7 trillion in the price of their stocks as a result of tariffs imposed on imports from China during the Trump administration. Our trade deficit with China ballooned as a result of Trump’s trade policy, far exceeding what it had been under the previous administration.

Now, he's not just doubling down; he wants to impose an across-the-board 10% tariff on all imports, which will effectively serve as a tax on American consumers. Who are the clowns advising this fool?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/18/trump-trade-wars-tariffs/

Trump is proposing a 10% tariff. Economists say that amounts to a $1,700 tax on Americans.

Former President Donald Trump is floating a 10% across-the-board tariff on all U.S. imports. But economists warn consumers would pay the price.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Ohio Guy]

1) let’s hear Biden won’t repeat 2020. Evidence with student loans and progressives on the s. Ct. Indicates otherwise.
2) monody’s analysts think is a euphemism for wild speculation. A guess. Will we have locked down Biden without congresss who can’t send out free cheese? What happens if he has control again like 2020?

What we have are price comparisons between trump in office and Biden. Data. Not conjecture

I find it very unlikely there will be a generational pandemic again. And Biden won't be shackled by his predecessor's promises and mistakes. I don't know why you ignore these things.

Biden will be able to continue to build the economy and do essentially everything mentioned by the Moodys folks in the OP.

 

[Ohio Guy]

Just want to add Trump's trade policy and tariffs to the discussion.

Trade policy is where a US president wields the most economic influence and power, and Trump’s trade policy was a disaster. He started a trade war with China, a war that the United States ultimately lost. It cost the United States nearly 300,000 jobs and estimated $316 billion by the end of 2020. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University found US companies lost $1.7 trillion in the price of their stocks as a result of tariffs imposed on imports from China during the Trump administration. Our trade deficit with China ballooned as a result of Trump’s trade policy, far exceeding what it had been under the previous administration.

Now, he's not just doubling down; he wants to impose an across-the-board 10% tariff on all imports, which will effectively serve as a tax on American consumers. Who are the clowns advising this fool?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/18/trump-trade-wars-tariffs/

Trump is proposing a 10% tariff. Economists say that amounts to a $1,700 tax on Americans.

Former President Donald Trump is floating a 10% across-the-board tariff on all U.S. imports. But economists warn consumers would pay the price.

www.cbsnews.com

This is a great post and a great point.

I'll be interested in seeing the pretzel logic used to try and dispute it.