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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

JamieDimonsBalls said:
This isn’ta good sign

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Thread by @clement_molin on Thread Reader App

@clement_molin: How long will russian 🇷🇺 offensive last ? It's been a year since Russia launched its Donbass offensive, today, they are capturing Selydove and Hrynk, threatening the whole ukrainian 🇺🇦 south Dontesk ...…
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Russia has been making incremental progress for a while now, and they're paying a heavy price. But they keep the meat grinder going.

Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to be holding onto Kursk. It's a strange situation.
 
JamieDimonsBalls said:
This isn’ta good sign

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Thread by @clement_molin on Thread Reader App

@clement_molin: How long will russian 🇷🇺 offensive last ? It's been a year since Russia launched its Donbass offensive, today, they are capturing Selydove and Hrynk, threatening the whole ukrainian 🇺🇦 south Dontesk ...…
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I think you’re looking at a before picture. The offensive has cost Russians 100’s of armored vehicles.
The black lines below show the starting point nearly two years ago and the scale is in km.

Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20October%2027%2C%202024.png
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
Worthwhile read

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Thread by @RaduHossu on Thread Reader App

@RaduHossu: 1/18 Strategically, in the long term Russia has lost the war, but Ukraine may lose it in the short term militarily I. Two years ago, when I was still on the Eastern Front (Kharkiv Oblast), I...…
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Good perspective on the long term effects on Russia.

I'm surprised he didn't mention Ukraine's incursion into Kursk as a prime negotiating point.

I'm also surprised no one really talks about internal Ukrainian development of longer range missiles. Because I'd bet they are hard at work on developing those now, since the US won't allow them to use ours. I think this could very well be the thing that brings Russia to the negotiating table, if it comes to fruition.
 
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IUCrazy2 said:
The Ukrainians don't have enough men to be in the kind of fight they have been in. Nobody wants to hear this but they are going to have to sit down and talk unless everyone is OK with kicking off WW3.
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They will have to sit down, but when and under what terms is up to them. Can we imagine France telling us we need to negotiate with England in 1778 under the idea England keeps the South? We shouldn't tell them what deal to take nor what deal not to take. It has to be their decision.

I suspect a stumbling block, among many, is what the government of Ukraine is after a deal. I suspect Putin has very clear ideas of what he wants.

We all recall footage of Putin and the giant table during COVID. He has little desire to be at risk. The odds of WWIII are always non-zero, but Ukraine doesn't significantly alter that. Putin is very aware of his mortality.


 
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Marvin the Martian said:
They will have to sit down, but when and under what terms is up to them. Can we imagine France telling us we need to negotiate with England in 1778 under the idea England keeps the South? We shouldn't tell them what deal to take nor what deal not to take. It has to be their decision.

I suspect a stumbling block, among many, is what the government of Ukraine is after a deal. I suspect Putin has very clear ideas of what he wants.

We all recall footage of Putin and the giant table during COVID. He has little desire to be at risk. The odds of WWIII are always non-zero, but Ukraine doesn't significantly alter that. Putin is very aware of his mortality.


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They don't have to quit but we should definitely be looking at return on investment and likelihood of our partner to meet their stated goals. The French ended up putting boots on the ground to help push the colonists across the line and had a Revolution that was caused in part by the debt they took on from helping in our war and the 7 years war. Their involvement with us turned out wonderful for us and not so wonderful for the French Crown that supported us.

I don't believe Ukraine can meet their stated goals. How many more billions is it worth throwing at a losing effort? They aren't getting back Luhansk, the Donbas, or Crimea. We should be dealing with them realistically and if they want to continue on, have at it, but don't count on us continuing to invest in a money pit.
 
IUCrazy2 said:
They don't have to quit but we should definitely be looking at return on investment and likelihood of our partner to meet their stated goals. The French ended up putting boots on the ground to help push the colonists across the line and had a Revolution that was caused in part by the debt they took on from helping in our war and the 7 years war. Their involvement with us turned out wonderful for us and not so wonderful for the French Crown that supported us.

I don't believe Ukraine can meet their stated goals. How many more billions is it worth throwing at a losing effort? They aren't getting back Luhansk, the Donbas, or Crimea. We should be dealing with them realistically and if they want to continue on, have at it, but don't count on us continuing to invest in a money pit.
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In the end, it comes down to what we believe of Putin. Is his goal really just Donbas/Luhansk? If he gets those, the rest of Ukraine is pretty defenseless. Does his final goal include more (Poland/Finland/Baltic)? If we believe he wants more, should we let him have all he wants in Ukraine? We know Moldova/Transnistria are undergoing attacks from Russia.

We need to realize that Poland/Finland/Baltic States are part of NATO and certainly would rather see the Russians fought in Ukraine than in their countries. So whatever ends up happening in Ukraine certainly matters to them.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
They will have to sit down, but when and under what terms is up to them. Can we imagine France telling us we need to negotiate with England in 1778 under the idea England keeps the South? We shouldn't tell them what deal to take nor what deal not to take. It has to be their decision.

I suspect a stumbling block, among many, is what the government of Ukraine is after a deal. I suspect Putin has very clear ideas of what he wants.

We all recall footage of Putin and the giant table during COVID. He has little desire to be at risk. The odds of WWIII are always non-zero, but Ukraine doesn't significantly alter that. Putin is very aware of his mortality.


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Actually, according to the Ben Franklin show on Apple TV(?) - the one with Michael Douglas playing Franklin - that's exactly what was happening. Many in France wanted to negotiate with GB for an end to the war, because it was also eating up France's resources.

I think the Ukrainian move into Kursk was brilliant and can be a significant negotiating point. If Trump gets elected and insists on negotiations, the Kursk chip would probably throw up a roadblock for negotiations, because Russian isn't going to consider it and Ukraine will insist on it.

The Ukes could help themselves out by developing their own long range missile capabilities. They're technologically clever and motivated - I think they could do it. That would be a game changer, just as the Battle of Saratoga was a major turning point in the Revolutionary war, bringing a bigger commitment from France.
 
Marvin the Martian said:
In the end, it comes down to what we believe of Putin. Is his goal really just Donbas/Luhansk? If he gets those, the rest of Ukraine is pretty defenseless. Does his final goal include more (Poland/Finland/Baltic)? If we believe he wants more, should we let him have all he wants in Ukraine? We know Moldova/Transnistria are undergoing attacks from Russia.

We need to realize that Poland/Finland/Baltic States are part of NATO and certainly would rather see the Russians fought in Ukraine than in their countries. So whatever ends up happening in Ukraine certainly matters to them.
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I don't think it will happen, but what if Crimea and the disputed areas were made non-militarized zones with internationally-supervised elections? And Ukraine was admitted into NATO as a full member?

I think that's a scenario that Ukraine would seriously consider and Putin could claim his SMO achieved his goal of clearing out "Nazis" in the area. Win-Win.
 
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DANC said:
I don't think it will happen, but what if Crimea and the disputed areas were made non-militarized zones with internationally-supervised elections? And Ukraine was admitted into NATO as a full member?

I think that's a scenario that Ukraine would seriously consider and Putin could claim his SMO achieved his goal of clearing out "Nazis" in the area. Win-Win.
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I think that is a great idea, but I think Putin wants more than "denazification". He wants to go down next to Peter the Great (or ahead of Peter), and simple "denazification" doesn't do that.

But if he goes for it, heck yeah.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
I think that is a great idea, but I think Putin wants more than "denazification". He wants to go down next to Peter the Great (or ahead of Peter), and simple "denazification" doesn't do that.

But if he goes for it, heck yeah.
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Well, we know he was just using it as a pretext for a land grab.

But it would give him an out if he truly wants to get out of the meat grinder that's going on now.
 
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DANC said:
Well, we know he was just using it as a pretext for a land grab.

But it would give him an out if he truly wants to get out of the meat grinder that's going on now.
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Mark me down as supporting creative ways of getting him a face-saving way out. If he really only wanted denazification, he pretty much achieved that when Mariupol fell and the Azov Brigade was destroyed. So that's given him 2 years to declare that as victory.

But if he is willing to go for that now, great.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
In the end, it comes down to what we believe of Putin. Is his goal really just Donbas/Luhansk? If he gets those, the rest of Ukraine is pretty defenseless.
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Ok, but is he likely to get them either way? If they are likely to have a breakout soon, you want to stop the bleeding and have time to make the rest of Ukraine a harder nut to crack. If we can even get them to negotiate at that point. Do you think Ukraine can hold the line? If not, why continue to throw their lives away? You can call a truce and regroup.
Marvin the Martian said:
Does his final goal include more (Poland/Finland/Baltic)? If we believe he wants more, should we let him have all he wants in Ukraine? We know Moldova/Transnistria are undergoing attacks from Russia.
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If we are being real, if they want Moldova and Transnistria, there isn't anything we could do about it short of going to war with Russia over them. I wouldn't want to do that, would you? Poland, Finland, and the Baltics are NATO members. That is the red line. If Russia entered those countries I would support actively fighting them. It sucks for the countries that aren't under the NATO umbrella but I don't think a massive war with a potential nuclear exchange is worth it for Moldova.
Marvin the Martian said:
We need to realize that Poland/Finland/Baltic States are part of NATO and certainly would rather see the Russians fought in Ukraine than in their countries. So whatever ends up happening in Ukraine certainly matters to them.
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I am sure they would prefer to see Russia fought in Ukraine as opposed to their countries. I think the Russians would calculate our potential response when assessing whether an attack on those countries is worthwhile. I think if they did attack and we did an immediate and overwhelming conventional response against their forces, they would pull back.

We can't protect everyone, everywhere and we don't have an unlimited amount of material and treasure to send around the world to bleed our opponents. Decisions are going to have to be made because our allies haven't kept up their end of the bargain in Europe and we face a larger threat in the Pacific.
 
IUCrazy2 said:
Ok, but is he likely to get them either way? If they are likely to have a breakout soon, you want to stop the bleeding and have time to make the rest of Ukraine a harder nut to crack. If we can even get them to negotiate at that point. Do you think Ukraine can hold the line? If not, why continue to throw their lives away? You can call a truce and regroup.

If we are being real, if they want Moldova and Transnistria, there isn't anything we could do about it short of going to war with Russia over them. I wouldn't want to do that, would you? Poland, Finland, and the Baltics are NATO members. That is the red line. If Russia entered those countries I would support actively fighting them. It sucks for the countries that aren't under the NATO umbrella but I don't think a massive war with a potential nuclear exchange is worth it for Moldova.

I am sure they would prefer to see Russia fought in Ukraine as opposed to their countries. I think the Russians would calculate our potential response when assessing whether an attack on those countries is worthwhile. I think if they did attack and we did an immediate and overwhelming conventional response against their forces, they would pull back.

We can't protect everyone, everywhere and we don't have an unlimited amount of material and treasure to send around the world to bleed our opponents. Decisions are going to have to be made because our allies haven't kept up their end of the bargain in Europe and we face a larger threat in the Pacific.
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Again, I am in favor of Ukraine reaching a deal. But you suggest Putin would know we would support the NATO nations like Poland, what tella us that? If we are unwilling to spend money in Ukraine, what tells Putin we would spend money and blood in Poland?
 
SO much here.
War on Europe's door step. Europe suddenly finding more $ than many decades before. People still bitch about an American President demanding they meet their promises from the last 50 years. It's the American Presidents fault for calling out Europes failure to meet their agreement.
Different American President sends billions in old weapons slated for demolition, and then puts use restrictions on all of those weapons. It's still that past presidents fault. Tell me that the American MIC isn't running this without saying that the MIC is running this. Washington DC has no cloths, with the exception of quietly ruling over the electorate that it supposedly works for. We don't work for DC, DC works for US !
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
Again, I am in favor of Ukraine reaching a deal. But you suggest Putin would know we would support the NATO nations like Poland, what tella us that? If we are unwilling to spend money in Ukraine, what tells Putin we would spend money and blood in Poland?
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Attacking his forces if they cross that line. If Ukraine was our line we needed to draw the line before the invasion, not after. NATO is a clearly drawn line. If a Russian soldier crosses that line we should destroy them. That reinforces your line.

And we need to go back to the rest of our NATO allies like Germany and tell them that they need to get their shit together. We will help, we will carry the lionshare of the air superiority and logistics duties but you all absolutely have to maintain real standing armies that are well trained and equipped.
 
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TomEric4756 said:
"An attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack using airplane-type drones on the territory of the Russian Federation was thwarted," the ministry said.

Commercial airlines cannot afford to disrupt scheduled service from drone damage to multi million dollar aircraft. Precautionary diversions are necessary business continuity measures.
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Long way to say they blew the shit out of their runways and Russia is worried.
But yours sounds more sophisticated. 😜
 
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