Russia-Ukraine war has begun

[Marvin the Martian]

I doubt they’ll be very effective.

Early results are not good.

North Korean troops deserting Ukraine frontline days after arrival: Report

At least 18 soldiers provided to Putin by Kim Jong Un were said to have abandoned their positions after arriving to the front, Ukrainian media reports.

www.newsweek.com

 

[DANC]

Early results are not good.

North Korean troops deserting Ukraine frontline days after arrival: Report

At least 18 soldiers provided to Putin by Kim Jong Un were said to have abandoned their positions after arriving to the front, Ukrainian media reports.

www.newsweek.com

Gosh, who could have predicted that!?!?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Gosh, who could have predicted that!?!?

I suspect the headline could easily be, "North Koreans surrender to man armed with loaf of bread."

 

[Spartans9312]

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

View embedded media

Not exactly an unsurprising take from a guy like Kagan.

 

[Spartans9312]

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Abrams tanks in Russia:

MSN

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

MSN

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

North Korean troops fighting Ukraine will be 'fair game,' U.S. warns Putin

North Korean soldiers were being disguised as Russians and were acting under the Kremlin’s command instead of their own, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun reported to lawmakers Thursday, his office told NBC News.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[DANC]

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

This isn’ta good sign

Thread by @clement_molin on Thread Reader App

@clement_molin: How long will russian 🇷🇺 offensive last ? It's been a year since Russia launched its Donbass offensive, today, they are capturing Selydove and Hrynk, threatening the whole ukrainian 🇺🇦 south Dontesk ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[DANC]

This isn’ta good sign

View embedded media

Thread by @clement_molin on Thread Reader App

@clement_molin: How long will russian 🇷🇺 offensive last ? It's been a year since Russia launched its Donbass offensive, today, they are capturing Selydove and Hrynk, threatening the whole ukrainian 🇺🇦 south Dontesk ...…

threadreaderapp.com

Russia has been making incremental progress for a while now, and they're paying a heavy price. But they keep the meat grinder going.

Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to be holding onto Kursk. It's a strange situation.

 

[TomEric4756]

This isn’ta good sign

View embedded media

Thread by @clement_molin on Thread Reader App

@clement_molin: How long will russian 🇷🇺 offensive last ? It's been a year since Russia launched its Donbass offensive, today, they are capturing Selydove and Hrynk, threatening the whole ukrainian 🇺🇦 south Dontesk ...…

threadreaderapp.com

I think you’re looking at a before picture. The offensive has cost Russians 100’s of armored vehicles.
The black lines below show the starting point nearly two years ago and the scale is in km.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Worthwhile read

Thread by @RaduHossu on Thread Reader App

@RaduHossu: 1/18 Strategically, in the long term Russia has lost the war, but Ukraine may lose it in the short term militarily I. Two years ago, when I was still on the Eastern Front (Kharkiv Oblast), I...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[DANC]

Worthwhile read

Thread by @RaduHossu on Thread Reader App

@RaduHossu: 1/18 Strategically, in the long term Russia has lost the war, but Ukraine may lose it in the short term militarily I. Two years ago, when I was still on the Eastern Front (Kharkiv Oblast), I...…

threadreaderapp.com

Good perspective on the long term effects on Russia.

I'm surprised he didn't mention Ukraine's incursion into Kursk as a prime negotiating point.

I'm also surprised no one really talks about internal Ukrainian development of longer range missiles. Because I'd bet they are hard at work on developing those now, since the US won't allow them to use ours. I think this could very well be the thing that brings Russia to the negotiating table, if it comes to fruition.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

8,000 North Korean troops in Kursk could join Ukraine war in days, Blinken says

The Defense Department said earlier this week it believes North Korea sent 10,000 troops to Russia. Now, most are in Kursk, Antony Blinken said.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/03/europe/ukraine-powerful-russian-offensive-intl/index.html

 

[IUCrazy2]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/03/europe/ukraine-powerful-russian-offensive-intl/index.html

The Ukrainians don't have enough men to be in the kind of fight they have been in. Nobody wants to hear this but they are going to have to sit down and talk unless everyone is OK with kicking off WW3.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

The Ukrainians don't have enough men to be in the kind of fight they have been in. Nobody wants to hear this but they are going to have to sit down and talk unless everyone is OK with kicking off WW3.

They will have to sit down, but when and under what terms is up to them. Can we imagine France telling us we need to negotiate with England in 1778 under the idea England keeps the South? We shouldn't tell them what deal to take nor what deal not to take. It has to be their decision.

I suspect a stumbling block, among many, is what the government of Ukraine is after a deal. I suspect Putin has very clear ideas of what he wants.

We all recall footage of Putin and the giant table during COVID. He has little desire to be at risk. The odds of WWIII are always non-zero, but Ukraine doesn't significantly alter that. Putin is very aware of his mortality.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Putin_and_Macron_meeting_with_a_large_table.jpg

 

[IUCrazy2]

They will have to sit down, but when and under what terms is up to them. Can we imagine France telling us we need to negotiate with England in 1778 under the idea England keeps the South? We shouldn't tell them what deal to take nor what deal not to take. It has to be their decision.

I suspect a stumbling block, among many, is what the government of Ukraine is after a deal. I suspect Putin has very clear ideas of what he wants.

We all recall footage of Putin and the giant table during COVID. He has little desire to be at risk. The odds of WWIII are always non-zero, but Ukraine doesn't significantly alter that. Putin is very aware of his mortality.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Putin_and_Macron_meeting_with_a_large_table.jpg

They don't have to quit but we should definitely be looking at return on investment and likelihood of our partner to meet their stated goals. The French ended up putting boots on the ground to help push the colonists across the line and had a Revolution that was caused in part by the debt they took on from helping in our war and the 7 years war. Their involvement with us turned out wonderful for us and not so wonderful for the French Crown that supported us.

I don't believe Ukraine can meet their stated goals. How many more billions is it worth throwing at a losing effort? They aren't getting back Luhansk, the Donbas, or Crimea. We should be dealing with them realistically and if they want to continue on, have at it, but don't count on us continuing to invest in a money pit.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

They don't have to quit but we should definitely be looking at return on investment and likelihood of our partner to meet their stated goals. The French ended up putting boots on the ground to help push the colonists across the line and had a Revolution that was caused in part by the debt they took on from helping in our war and the 7 years war. Their involvement with us turned out wonderful for us and not so wonderful for the French Crown that supported us.

I don't believe Ukraine can meet their stated goals. How many more billions is it worth throwing at a losing effort? They aren't getting back Luhansk, the Donbas, or Crimea. We should be dealing with them realistically and if they want to continue on, have at it, but don't count on us continuing to invest in a money pit.

In the end, it comes down to what we believe of Putin. Is his goal really just Donbas/Luhansk? If he gets those, the rest of Ukraine is pretty defenseless. Does his final goal include more (Poland/Finland/Baltic)? If we believe he wants more, should we let him have all he wants in Ukraine? We know Moldova/Transnistria are undergoing attacks from Russia.

We need to realize that Poland/Finland/Baltic States are part of NATO and certainly would rather see the Russians fought in Ukraine than in their countries. So whatever ends up happening in Ukraine certainly matters to them.

 

[DANC]

They will have to sit down, but when and under what terms is up to them. Can we imagine France telling us we need to negotiate with England in 1778 under the idea England keeps the South? We shouldn't tell them what deal to take nor what deal not to take. It has to be their decision.

I suspect a stumbling block, among many, is what the government of Ukraine is after a deal. I suspect Putin has very clear ideas of what he wants.

We all recall footage of Putin and the giant table during COVID. He has little desire to be at risk. The odds of WWIII are always non-zero, but Ukraine doesn't significantly alter that. Putin is very aware of his mortality.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Putin_and_Macron_meeting_with_a_large_table.jpg

Actually, according to the Ben Franklin show on Apple TV(?) - the one with Michael Douglas playing Franklin - that's exactly what was happening. Many in France wanted to negotiate with GB for an end to the war, because it was also eating up France's resources.

I think the Ukrainian move into Kursk was brilliant and can be a significant negotiating point. If Trump gets elected and insists on negotiations, the Kursk chip would probably throw up a roadblock for negotiations, because Russian isn't going to consider it and Ukraine will insist on it.

The Ukes could help themselves out by developing their own long range missile capabilities. They're technologically clever and motivated - I think they could do it. That would be a game changer, just as the Battle of Saratoga was a major turning point in the Revolutionary war, bringing a bigger commitment from France.

 

[DANC]

In the end, it comes down to what we believe of Putin. Is his goal really just Donbas/Luhansk? If he gets those, the rest of Ukraine is pretty defenseless. Does his final goal include more (Poland/Finland/Baltic)? If we believe he wants more, should we let him have all he wants in Ukraine? We know Moldova/Transnistria are undergoing attacks from Russia.

We need to realize that Poland/Finland/Baltic States are part of NATO and certainly would rather see the Russians fought in Ukraine than in their countries. So whatever ends up happening in Ukraine certainly matters to them.

I don't think it will happen, but what if Crimea and the disputed areas were made non-militarized zones with internationally-supervised elections? And Ukraine was admitted into NATO as a full member?

I think that's a scenario that Ukraine would seriously consider and Putin could claim his SMO achieved his goal of clearing out "Nazis" in the area. Win-Win.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I don't think it will happen, but what if Crimea and the disputed areas were made non-militarized zones with internationally-supervised elections? And Ukraine was admitted into NATO as a full member?

I think that's a scenario that Ukraine would seriously consider and Putin could claim his SMO achieved his goal of clearing out "Nazis" in the area. Win-Win.

I think that is a great idea, but I think Putin wants more than "denazification". He wants to go down next to Peter the Great (or ahead of Peter), and simple "denazification" doesn't do that.

But if he goes for it, heck yeah.

 

[DANC]

I think that is a great idea, but I think Putin wants more than "denazification". He wants to go down next to Peter the Great (or ahead of Peter), and simple "denazification" doesn't do that.

But if he goes for it, heck yeah.

Well, we know he was just using it as a pretext for a land grab.

But it would give him an out if he truly wants to get out of the meat grinder that's going on now.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Well, we know he was just using it as a pretext for a land grab.

But it would give him an out if he truly wants to get out of the meat grinder that's going on now.

Mark me down as supporting creative ways of getting him a face-saving way out. If he really only wanted denazification, he pretty much achieved that when Mariupol fell and the Azov Brigade was destroyed. So that's given him 2 years to declare that as victory.

But if he is willing to go for that now, great.