My reply was shorted due to my fat fingers or long winded response. So I will cut to the nubbins…we were housed with a retired female pediatrician who was living on a $30 per month pension plus what she made from folks like us. Her apartment was immaculate and very well decorated. But outside of her apartment was a disaster. I asked why she lived in such a situation as I could see she knew better was possible. She told me she would like to complain to get the problems corrected but complain to whom? No one could or would claim title to the building as it was Soviet pass down And no one had claimed or invested in the building title. So she suffered some unpleasantness but paid no rent. Crazy world those post Soviet russkies and their client states were experiencing.
Russia-Ukraine war has begun
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
But morning shot of very cold vodka from bottle kept on the window ledge was a good starter to the day.
I accidentally delete stuff all the time. Pisses me off and then I shorten what I really want to say.
I blame my computer.
Yes, a predictable ploy … stop paying attention to Ukraine … With Russian interference in the Middle East, blaming the West for ignoring the Middle East … is just cynical … and sinister.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2023
The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine. The Kremlin amplified several information operations following Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, primarily blaming the West for neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine and claiming the international community will cease to pay attention to Ukraine by portraying attention to the Middle East or alternatively Ukraine as a zero-sum comparison. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed the United States and its allies should have been “busy with” working on “Palestinian-Israeli settlement” rather than “interfering” with Russia and providing Ukraine with military aid.[1] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) accused the West of blocking efforts by a necessary “quartet” of Russia, the US, the European Union, and the United Nations, leading to an escalation in violence, implicitly blaming the West for the current fighting.[2] Prominent Russian propagandist Sergei Mardan directly stated that Russia will benefit from the escalation as the world “will take its mind off Ukraine for a while and get busy once again putting out the eternal fire in the Middle East.”[3] These Kremlin narratives target Western audiences to drive a wedge in military support for Ukraine, seek to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose international support, and intend to reassure Russian domestic audiences that the international society will ignore Ukraine’s war effort.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2023
The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine. The Kremlin amplified several information operations following Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, primarily blaming the West for neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine and claiming the international community will cease to pay attention to Ukraine by portraying attention to the Middle East or alternatively Ukraine as a zero-sum comparison. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed the United States and its allies should have been “busy with” working on “Palestinian-Israeli settlement” rather than “interfering” with Russia and providing Ukraine with military aid.[1] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) accused the West of blocking efforts by a necessary “quartet” of Russia, the US, the European Union, and the United Nations, leading to an escalation in violence, implicitly blaming the West for the current fighting.[2] Prominent Russian propagandist Sergei Mardan directly stated that Russia will benefit from the escalation as the world “will take its mind off Ukraine for a while and get busy once again putting out the eternal fire in the Middle East.”[3] These Kremlin narratives target Western audiences to drive a wedge in military support for Ukraine, seek to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose international support, and intend to reassure Russian domestic audiences that the international society will ignore Ukraine’s war effort.
And making gains on an enemy that had a year to dig in.
Wow just wow.
Ship our whole damn inventory over there - the AF wants to get rid of them anyway.
Great planes in their time. But flying them with command of the air over the battlefield, and within easy range of massive amounts of Russian anti-air, would not be for the faint of heart. Or people wanting to land again. They might be able to fly low, get one pass in and out and then run for it. Anything more seems like a suicide mission. So far it seems neither side can commit much air successfully.
These are heavily armored aircraft that can fly very low. They are tank killers and could strafe trenches.
If Ukrainians want them and we don't, why not ship them over there? I'm sure they know the risk.
Strafe those trenches and have napalm hanging from the pods…. Hmmmm fried pORC
I completely agree with sending them. And as I said, they were great planes not too long ago. I've seen them at many an air show, and saw them practicing over Lake Mead once. I'm sure they will do some good, but I think they won't be game-changers because the casualty rate will be high. But if Ukrainians are willing to fly them, send them.
Of course we probably can't until we get a new aid package through.
Being able to fly so low, I would think they could get in and out before AA can lock them in. Any AA that close to the battlefield could be easily targeted by the Ukrainian artillery.
I do not claim any expertise in this area - just trying to deduce based on what is known.
Yes, in ‘NAM US developed ’Wild Weasel’ tactics to suppress SA2 radars with the standard ARM.
Suppression of Anti Aircraft batteries was ‘doctrine’ for air strikes during the gulf wars, using HARM.
Shoulder fired and intermediate range infrared seeker technology make close air support much riskier these days.
This problem has cut both ways as the Russian Air Force is not willing to task multimillion dollar jets in Ukrainian airspace either, to face its own S300 and S400 systems operated by Ukraine.
Israel has experience dealing with S300 and S400 systems in Syria. I don’t think any are deployed in Gaza or Lebanon.
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Reports that Russia has changed tactics and made a (poorly) Blitzkrieg type attach around Andrivka. Over 100 Tanks and APV's lost by Russia but they possibly gained a few dozen meters of dirt northwest of the town. The videos of the destruction is just..... just... wow.
Ukraine caught the troop and mech movements only a short time before the offical "go time" and still wiped their Orc asses the fvck out.
Ukraine caught the troop and mech movements only a short time before the offical "go time" and still wiped their Orc asses the fvck out.
Telegraph says 36 tanks … regardless … million’s of dollars … weeks of production …
Blitzkrieg implies close air support … (to suppress anti tank positions for example) with lots of maneuver at speed. Tanks parked on an open causeway is not maneuver at speed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...heavy-losses-avdiivka-donetsk-tanks-armoured/
From ISW … https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-12-2023
Wikipedia
I thought I saw more than 10 tanks in The Telegraph video … there will be photos counting the destroyed tanks in the coming days.
- Russian forces likely launched a significant and ongoing offensive effort around Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast on October 10, and ISW is revising its initial assessment these attacks are a limited effort to fix Ukrainian forces.
- Russian forces have not secured any major breakthroughs near Avdiivka as of October 12 and are unlikely to immediately cut off Ukrainian forces in the city.
- Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have likely lost at least a battalion tactical group’s (BTG’s) worth of armored vehicles in offensive operations around Avdiivka.
- The Russian information space is likely exaggerating the degree of Russian successes on the Avdiivka front and will continue to do so despite military failures or a slow pace of advance.
Wikipedia
I thought I saw more than 10 tanks in The Telegraph video … there will be photos counting the destroyed tanks in the coming days.
Every offensive reads like WW1, even if this was supposed to be modeled after blitzkrieg. Or maybe from Blackadder:
"Field Marshal Haig is about to make yet another gargantuan effort to move his drinks cabinet six inches closer to Berlin."
I'm seeing reports that Russia can only refurb less than 10 tanks per month, figure that is 50% wrong, 36 is MAJOR loses, right? Let alone that is tanks only. IFV/ APV have the capacity to losing not only MECH but orc's... it's like their purpose, right?
Blitzkrieg had many more points of weapons, but it seems Russia only used one portion of that theory, since they've lost all air power (huge good thing).
This seems like a warrior pushed back on his haunches, throwing the last punch, for an area that wasn't SUPPOSED to be much of a strategically important area. ..... Maybe it is a little more import than we thought? OR it's the biggest misdirection play to draw the opponent's forces into an worthless area that totally even failed at that? ... Meat Grinder leadership.
Russia needs to cease to exist, period. They had their chance to enter 21st cen. They chose wrong.
Yes, in WW II there was an emphasis on bypassing hard defensive positions … until the Nazi’s attacked Kursk. Aerial reconnaissance of Kursk should have told the Wehrmacht general staff not to attack three lines of trenches. (And go for Moscow from Leningrad or Minsk).
In Ukraine… the Russians dug three lines of trenches … Instead of continuing to attack. (They may not of had much of a choice). It appears Russia will never get the momentum back.
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A saying I heard years ago, Stalingrad guaranteed Germany would not win the war, Kursk guaranteed they would lose it.
Update on this, although I do love the A10 whether is fits some battel fields or not. Davis Monthan also runs a shit ton of F16's. I wasn't meaning to over look that fact. They were also burning up the runways so that is probably what the Troops were doing there.
Great show. Best of the Blackadder seasons, by far.
No news as to the extent of Russian armor losses in recent attacks.
Might these two things be related? …
… A Russian volunteer in the 4th Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Brigade (2nd Army Corps, Southern Military District) claimed that worn out barrels are reducing the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka, a complaint about Russian artillery that ISW has previously observed from Russian sources.[5]
… The Kremlin is likely attempting to use Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka as well as localized efforts in other areas of the front to shift the Russian and international narratives to focus on Russian offensive operations and military capabilities. Ukraine is highly unlikely to have concluded its ongoing counteroffensive as Nebenzya claims, and as ISW has previously noted Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will likely continue into the winter months, though likely at a reduced pace and scale.[10]
Worn 155 rifle barrels can be replaced, but are limited by capacity provided by the forge tooling. Every barrel replaced is a new 155 howitzer that wasn’t built. The less accurate a worn barrel becomes… the more rounds it may need to fire … a death spiral. Breech blocks and recoil damping don’t last forever either.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-13-2023
Might these two things be related? …
… A Russian volunteer in the 4th Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Brigade (2nd Army Corps, Southern Military District) claimed that worn out barrels are reducing the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka, a complaint about Russian artillery that ISW has previously observed from Russian sources.[5]
… The Kremlin is likely attempting to use Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka as well as localized efforts in other areas of the front to shift the Russian and international narratives to focus on Russian offensive operations and military capabilities. Ukraine is highly unlikely to have concluded its ongoing counteroffensive as Nebenzya claims, and as ISW has previously noted Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will likely continue into the winter months, though likely at a reduced pace and scale.[10]
Worn 155 rifle barrels can be replaced, but are limited by capacity provided by the forge tooling. Every barrel replaced is a new 155 howitzer that wasn’t built. The less accurate a worn barrel becomes… the more rounds it may need to fire … a death spiral. Breech blocks and recoil damping don’t last forever either.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-13-2023
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Yes … such a succinct analysis has a lot of truth. Husbanding resources was not Hitler’s long suit …
The divisions lost in Africa might have been enough to overwhelm the Russians … Trying to capture the Suez Canal could have waited.
The Studebaker Duece and a half made the Red Army more mobile… With the T34, the Panzers lost their edge … it could crush the Panzer IIIs and IVs that provided the mobility.
The destruction of the Luftwaffe by the 8th Air Force was a necessary condition for Operation Overlord … the two front war became a vise … and there weren’t enough men and material to stop the Allies on both fronts.
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Russia got 250k + or their troops killed and their top battleships erased…the entire premise that they would win was flawed the moment they tried urban warfare.
But people will also try to change the definition of win
286k reported as of yesterday. Ukraine decided a tactical war of attrition that "no one" thought would work. It obviously hasn't yet, but they've made MUCH more gains then the 3 day's that russia expected it to be.
Word is that Pooty won't round up more conscripts until after March "elections". To me, that means that the US has a defined timeline to get Ukraine "the good shit" and Ukraine has to wipe out the bridges (land and constructed) around Crimea before the next meat wave.
I've not seen a lot of news from the Robotyne sector in the last week. Most news has been around Andrivka, which as I understand, isn't of much militarily importance. The good guys have a few months to make major changes. If not.......... may get uglier.
Offensive operations that’s $7 for every $1 didn’t on defense. Russia failed and then the Ukrainians failed counteroffensive measures against embedded defensive positions
Human waves were used in WW2 … your life is indeed worth little as a Russian soldier.
US and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expressed confidence in Ukrainian defenses. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby reported on October 13 that the new Russian offensive operations near Lyman and Avdiivka “did not come as a surprise.”[1] Kirby stated that the US is confident that Ukrainian forces will repel these Russian attacks.[2] Kirby also reported that Russian forces appear to be using human wave tactics, wherein the Russian military uses masses of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers to attempt to advance - the same practice Russian forces used during their failed winter offensive in winter 2023.[3] ISW has additionally observed Russian forces using higher than usual numbers of armored vehicles in ongoing operations.[4] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov similarly reported on October 12 that Ukrainian forces knew about and prepared for the Russian attack near Avdiivka and that Russian forces did not form sufficient reserves to attack along the entire frontline, but only in certain sectors.[5] Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian mines are slowing Russian advances near Avdiivka, indicating Ukrainian prior preparations for the attack.[6]
Good grief … how long is this going to take … getting an 80s fighter design to Ukraine
Ukrainian forces will reportedly begin training on F-16 fighter jets in the US next week. Politico reported on October 13 that anonymous US officials stated that a “small number” of Ukrainian pilots will begin F-16 fighter jet training next week at Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona after having completed English language training at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas.[25] One US official reportedly stated that the training may be accelerated due to Ukrainian forces’ urgent need for F-16 fighter jets.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-14-2023
US and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expressed confidence in Ukrainian defenses. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby reported on October 13 that the new Russian offensive operations near Lyman and Avdiivka “did not come as a surprise.”[1] Kirby stated that the US is confident that Ukrainian forces will repel these Russian attacks.[2] Kirby also reported that Russian forces appear to be using human wave tactics, wherein the Russian military uses masses of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers to attempt to advance - the same practice Russian forces used during their failed winter offensive in winter 2023.[3] ISW has additionally observed Russian forces using higher than usual numbers of armored vehicles in ongoing operations.[4] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov similarly reported on October 12 that Ukrainian forces knew about and prepared for the Russian attack near Avdiivka and that Russian forces did not form sufficient reserves to attack along the entire frontline, but only in certain sectors.[5] Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian mines are slowing Russian advances near Avdiivka, indicating Ukrainian prior preparations for the attack.[6]
Good grief … how long is this going to take … getting an 80s fighter design to Ukraine
Ukrainian forces will reportedly begin training on F-16 fighter jets in the US next week. Politico reported on October 13 that anonymous US officials stated that a “small number” of Ukrainian pilots will begin F-16 fighter jet training next week at Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona after having completed English language training at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas.[25] One US official reportedly stated that the training may be accelerated due to Ukrainian forces’ urgent need for F-16 fighter jets.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-14-2023
There were Ukrainian military in Tucson last week, I personally viewed and ate breakfast next to them. Some in Green camo and some in blue. Aren't the Blue Camo ground support/ mechanics?
I'm not sure where Morris is.
Well I should have searched first. Morris, NOT Davis Monthan, uses KTUS runways and is basically adjoined to Tucson airport.. hmmmm That makes a lot of things all come together.
Speaking of that, I saw we deployed an unknown number of warthogs to the Middle East.
You kiddin me ? I really want to send the rooskies some nose candy ammo in mass quantities. Maybe they've updated some avionics to recognize AA and other hardware.... hmmmm I'll dream sweet dreams tonight. Thanks Marv!
Collocated with Tucson Airport. Morris AFB is the F16 training center.
https://www.162wing.ang.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/444440/162nd-wing/
Learn something every day and I've flown in and out of there (commercially) since all the way back to 2008, but mostly since 2012.
US A-10 attack planes arrive in Middle East in bid to deter wider war
More advanced military aircraft — including F-35 Lightning II, F-15 Eagle and F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters — are expected to join them.
www.airforcetimes.com
It’s not unusual to see a C130, KC135 or similar large aircraft on the military side of such dual use facilities … but you have to look on the opposite side from terminal.
Oh I know, I just always thought that all of the Military planes out of TUS were Davis Monthan using those runways as well as their own on base. I didn't realize that there was the NG base next to TUS. It's somewhat semantics, I just never realized Morris was there.
Here you go... Street view from Google 🤣
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Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.
Not Biden?? 🤣🤣
Russia has been experiencing higher than expected incoming calls. Their wait time to become fertilizer is now 13 days. (made up number by me).
