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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

Who has read The Foundation? As the Galactic Empire was collapsing, there was one last great general - Bel Riose. Riose knew about the Foundation and sought them out to destroy them and take their tech to rejuvenate the Empire. The emperor eventually has Riose killed.

Gost of Seldon appears to the Foundation leadership and explains what happened. He said as an empire decays, any general that could defeat the Foundation (top opponent) was too dangerous to be allowed and the emperor has to act on them.

Doesn't that sound familiar to current events?

It is all from memory from 40 years ago, forgive whatever I missed.
 
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BradStevens said:
Long, but worthwhile article on escalation management in Ukraine:

tnsr.org

Escalation Management in Ukraine: "Learning by Doing" in Response to the "Threat that Leaves Something to Chance" - Texas National Security Review

The article analyses a process of escalation management over time between nuclear states under conditions of radical uncertainty. After Russia invaded Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin manipulated uncertainty to manage escalation and to deter NATO support of Ukraine. President Joe Biden was...
tnsr.org tnsr.org
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My eyes started glazing over after the first 50 pages..... kudos to you if you read it all the way through - and understood it.

Does that article have a point?
 
DANC said:
My eyes started glazing over after the first 50 pages..... kudos to you if you read it all the way through - and understood it.

Does that article have a point?
Click to expand...
She makes many points. One I found interesting is her theory that U.S. leaders (and leaders in general) really don't know their preferences until they act, and then they discover them. Kinda an "everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth" view of strategic leadership:

There is no better description of how decision-makers will react in dynamic strategic environments than the one written in confidence for American policymakers more than 60 years ago by Schelling. His analysis of how decision-makers cannot anticipate what they will do applies equally well to Putin and his small circle of advisers today:

We are not in effect making the enemy believe that our behavior is unpredictable only to the extent that we can deceive him; our response is unpredictable to him because it is unpredictable, in some significant degree, even to us. We are not threatening that we may surprise him because we can calculate his expectations better than he can calculate ours; we may surprise him for the same reason that we may surprise ourselves. He cannot expect to foretell our behavior in contingencies so complex that we cannot ourselves exactly foretell our response to them.104
Click to expand...
 
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BradStevens said:
She makes many points. One I found interesting is her theory that U.S. leaders (and leaders in general) really don't know their preferences until they act, and then they discover them. Kinda an "everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth" view of strategic leadership.
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I have to agree - I don't see any evidence that we had a plan if Russia invaded Ukraine, other than the training we've given them since 2014 and (finally) some weapons sent there under Trump.

But that's not a surprise, since no one thought Ukraine could withstand a Russian invasion.

You'd think, after our experiences fighting limited wars, that we wouldn't underestimate the will of a population to resist outside invasions.
 
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DANC said:
I have to agree - I don't see any evidence that we had a plan if Russia invaded Ukraine, other than the training we've given them since 2014 and (finally) some weapons sent there under Trump.

But that's not a surprise, since no one thought Ukraine could withstand a Russian invasion.

You'd think, after our experiences fighting limited wars, that we wouldn't underestimate the will of a population to resist outside invasions.
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We generally tend to over-estimate our opponents capabilities as well (at least state level opponents).
 
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BradStevens said:
She makes many points. One I found interesting is her theory that U.S. leaders (and leaders in general) really don't know their preferences until they act, and then they discover them. Kinda an "everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth" view of strategic leadership:

There is no better description of how decision-makers will react in dynamic strategic environments than the one written in confidence for American policymakers more than 60 years ago by Schelling. His analysis of how decision-makers cannot anticipate what they will do applies equally well to Putin and his small circle of advisers today:
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I agree with a lot of this. Good leaders are not the ones who can make and follow plans. Good leaders are those who have strong agile minds who can quickly respond to changing circumstances and shifting priorities, and most of all are not afraid of responsibility and criticism.

Our increasing reliance on policy, committees, process, and groupthink is destroying leadership.
 
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I think Putin will take out Prigozhin . . . too much history of him retaliating to ignore. So Prigozhin is as good as dead, IMO.

Putin will survive for a while . . . but he's been hurt politically. His star is trending down. He might last 5 more years in power . . . but he's as good as gone now, a lame duck.

The real question is who will take over Russia after Putin is gone. One thing I'm certain of . . . it won't be Prigozhin. Lukashenko as a kingmaker? Or is he tainted by the Prigozhin deal? I dunno . . . .

One thing that's been bothering me is that Prigozhin's soldiers might have been barking at him for the meat grinder they've been in. That may be why Prigozhin began his "coup" - as a concession to Wagner Group folks - and when Putin agreed to a cessation of hostilities - in Russia - Prigozhin had little choice but to take the deal offered. My guess is that he knows he's at the end of his line anyway - Putin appears as good as done, and Prigozhin is a product of Putin. The Wagner Group soldiers were ready to revolt against Prigozhin anyway - which put Prigozhin between a rock and a hard place. He made the best of a bad lot by tossing the whole Wagner Group shebang to Putin.

Putin is just playing out the string . . . .
 
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Sope Creek said:
Objection, your honor. Assumes facts not in evidence. Mark's point assumes he's read The Best and the Brightest to begin with. ;)

But Mark's point is otherwise well-taken. The criticism is nothing new. 😇
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It was close to 50 years ago. Does that still count?
 
The only other thing I can figure as a possibility is that Prigozhin really did want to take over, but Putin pulled some kind of trump card (no pun intended) of the "hostage" variety. (Ie. Putin showed a live feed of Prigozhin's daughter with a laser site dot on the back of her head).
"So, here's the deal. You go to Belarus, I get all your troops, and your daughter just might live a few more years and not accidentally fall out a window".
 
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Sope Creek said:
I think Putin will take out Prigozhin . . . too much history of him retaliating to ignore. So Prigozhin is as good as dead, IMO.

Putin will survive for a while . . . but he's been hurt politically. His star is trending down. He might last 5 more years in power . . . but he's as good as gone now, a lame duck.

The real question is who will take over Russia after Putin is gone. One thing I'm certain of . . . it won't be Prigozhin. Lukashenko as a kingmaker? Or is he tainted by the Prigozhin deal? I dunno . . . .

One thing that's been bothering me is that Prigozhin's soldiers might have been barking at him for the meat grinder they've been in. That may be why Prigozhin began his "coup" - as a concession to Wagner Group folks - and when Putin agreed to a cessation of hostilities - in Russia - Prigozhin had little choice but to take the deal offered. My guess is that he knows he's at the end of his line anyway - Putin appears as good as done, and Prigozhin is a product of Putin. The Wagner Group soldiers were ready to revolt against Prigozhin anyway - which put Prigozhin between a rock and a hard place. He made the best of a bad lot by tossing the whole Wagner Group shebang to Putin.

Putin is just playing out the string . . . .
Click to expand...
www.telegraph.co.uk

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

Details offer clue as to why Wagner Group abandoned coup attempt that revealed ‘real cracks’ in Putin’s authority
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 
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Sope Creek said:
I think Putin will take out Prigozhin . . . too much history of him retaliating to ignore. So Prigozhin is as good as dead, IMO.

Putin will survive for a while . . . but he's been hurt politically. His star is trending down. He might last 5 more years in power . . . but he's as good as gone now, a lame duck.

The real question is who will take over Russia after Putin is gone. One thing I'm certain of . . . it won't be Prigozhin. Lukashenko as a kingmaker? Or is he tainted by the Prigozhin deal? I dunno . . . .

One thing that's been bothering me is that Prigozhin's soldiers might have been barking at him for the meat grinder they've been in. That may be why Prigozhin began his "coup" - as a concession to Wagner Group folks - and when Putin agreed to a cessation of hostilities - in Russia - Prigozhin had little choice but to take the deal offered. My guess is that he knows he's at the end of his line anyway - Putin appears as good as done, and Prigozhin is a product of Putin. The Wagner Group soldiers were ready to revolt against Prigozhin anyway - which put Prigozhin between a rock and a hard place. He made the best of a bad lot by tossing the whole Wagner Group shebang to Putin.

Putin is just playing out the string . . . .
Click to expand...
Prigozhin should stay away from open windows.
 
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UncleMark said:
Nothing new. Reread The Best and the Brightest.
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I think that true. But what is new that the problem is wider and deeper. We now have people in charge who were steeped in groupthink and the security of safe space and censorship during their educations.

What happened at Stanford law school should scare the shit out of all of us. Those with that mindset will be in charge in less than a generation.
 
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CO. Hoosier said:
What happened at Stanford law school should scare the shit out of all of us. Those with that mindset will be in charge in less than a generation.
Click to expand...

They'll have had their asses kicked a few time before they take over. No need to panic. The real world is a different place than academia.
 
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BradStevens said:
www.telegraph.co.uk

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

Details offer clue as to why Wagner Group abandoned coup attempt that revealed ‘real cracks’ in Putin’s authority
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
Click to expand...
I think we can all agree that Putin's time in power is coming to an end, one way or another, right? My next question, which is in the vein of "how quick" does his reign end, how do Russians feel about him using Prigozhin's family as hostages?
Does that make more MOD people defect, form up against Putty? Or is it just another day in Russia and "we" are ok with it?
 
Marvin the Martian said:
John Bolton was saying that British Intel puts Wagner group at something like 8000 men, not 25,000 that our media reports. If so, this whole thing was doomed pretty much no matter what.

He also suggests the Prigozhin acted before thinking.
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The entire operation was a facade…Putin group organized and executed it and a lot of media bought it.

Probably more like a couple thousand men… the 25 thousand figure was exaggerated
 
Rockport Zebra said:
When did you become a Boltin fan?
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Awkward A Little Late With Lilly Singh GIF by Lilly Singh
 
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Joe_Hoopsier said:
I think we can all agree that Putin's time in power is coming to an end, one way or another, right? My next question, which is in the vein of "how quick" does his reign end, how do Russians feel about him using Prigozhin's family as hostages?
Does that make more MOD people defect, form up against Putty? Or is it just another day in Russia and "we" are ok with it?
Click to expand...
I kinda find it hard to imagine Prigozhin was stopped by a threat on his family. He's the kind of guy who would threaten Putin right back with an attack on HIS family.

Prigozhin didn't want to take Putin down - he just wanted to be head of the military, imo. He mistakenly thought he could do it by showing strength.

I don't know that other commanders will have the cajones to take Putin on in a coup. I think they could very well figure out how to kill him, and then things could really devolve into civil war.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
John Bolton was saying that British Intel puts Wagner group at something like 8000 men, not 25,000 that our media reports. If so, this whole thing was doomed pretty much no matter what.

He also suggests the Prigozhin acted before thinking.
Click to expand...
It could be he only took 8,000 into Russia and the rest stayed in Ukraine.

How the hell would Bolton know?
 
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DANC said:
It could be he only took 8,000 into Russia and the rest stayed in Ukraine.

How the hell would Bolton know?
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I must have misheard him, it is 50,000 that the UK estimates.

www.independent.co.uk

What is the Wagner mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Vladimir Putin has leant on military contractors to claim victories in Ukraine but the Wagner leader’s threats against the country’s military leadership show tensions escalating to an alarming extent
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
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Spartans9312 said:
www.wsj.com

Prigozhin in Belarus as Wagner Prepares to Hand Over Weapons in Russia

The announcement is an indication that the paramilitary group could be disbanded as an autonomous force in coming days.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Sooo . . . the Wagner Group's personnel had 3 choices: (1) go to Belarus; (2) go home; or (3) fight for Russia.

What makes their choice #3? Why not go home?

I get that going to Belarus with Prigoazhin could be a death sentence. Is the notion of getting out of the military so bad that Wagner Group soldiers feel compelled to stick with the military?
 
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Sope Creek said:
Sooo . . . the Wagner Group's personnel had 3 choices: (1) go to Belarus; (2) go home; or (3) fight for Russia.

What makes their choice #3? Why not go home?

I get that going to Belarus with Prigoazhin could be a death sentence. Is the notion of getting out of the military so bad that Wagner Group soldiers feel compelled to stick with the military?
Click to expand...

I suspect jobs. Mercenaries are limited in where they can work.
 
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Marvin the Martian said:
I must have misheard him, it is 50,000 that the UK estimates.

www.independent.co.uk

What is the Wagner mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Vladimir Putin has leant on military contractors to claim victories in Ukraine but the Wagner leader’s threats against the country’s military leadership show tensions escalating to an alarming extent
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
Click to expand...
Actually, I heard the 8,000 number somewhere, but don't remember from whom.

It sounds like something Bolton would come up with.
 
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