Russia-Ukraine war has begun
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
One take I heard is, it's a false flag operation between Prigozhin and Putin so Putin can really put the country into total martial law and try to get the population to buy in like in WWII.
Now that Prigozhin has pulled back, that does look like more of a possibility.
I don't think it's to draw Ukraine out, but it's for internal use, if it truly is a stunt.
At this point, I think Xi is having a bad headache and wondering how he got in bed with such incompetents.
Perhaps. As I said before, I don't claim to know shit, but I'm skeptical. I'm more an Occam's Razor guy, and don't normally buy the 3D chess skulduggery stuff.
I'd be more inclined to think Prigozhin actually was going after the Defense forces (not Putin himself) and Putin got word to him to stand down, that it was going to be taken care of. Putin can't allow these two factions to be in open conflict against each other. He's going to have to pick one.
He's played the Chechens, Russian military, and the Wagner group against each other for years. He's the head of the family.
He's reaping what he's sown.
I'm with you, or was before they stood down today because the language was all about the 'ministry of defense is corrupt and lied TO Putin' vs calling out Putin.
Meaning I think he just wants to take over and scapegoat the MOD, literally execute them and be the new MOD.
An optimistic view was this could give Putin an out of Ukraine as he could say he was lied to by the MOD (especially since they have been executed).
Main reason is P yesterday said everything about the war with Ukraine is a lie, so to turn around and go after Ukraine after saying they were innocent and the country was lied to doesn't follow honor and logic....but what does these days.
Regardless Putin looks incredibly weak here, especially running to Saint Petersberg IMO.
Yeah, running out of Moscow was a bad look for him.
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That was probably me, wasn't it. I think I did take some liberties there in one post.
My bad.
So Prigozhin goes into exile and Wagner soldiers sign contracts with MOD. Sorry, I'm not buying this. This entire thing stinks.
everything about this is bullshit. I've been trying to figure out how this has been a winning move in 6D chess, but I just can't think of any way that this isn't all bat shit crazy. For all parties.
If it would have went on for 2-3 weeks, I could see sorting some wheat from the chaff, but less than 24 hrs? something is really odd.
Maybe Aloha or Ranger wake boarder or Bing or Danc can offer something?
Could be genius on Putin's part. He averts a full frontal assault on Moscow and the defense forces. Wagner is dissolved and folded into the conventional defense forces. And Prigozhin is exiled -- but not martyred -- and is kept under the control of Lukeshenko. All within what, 24 hours? What remains to be seen is whether or not the deal holds, and whether or not Putin is able to continue prosecuting the war without the independent Wagner forces.
All while making more visible, the mass numbers of Russian people against this admin and specifically this special operation? What was just a 2nd thought, now forces Putin to start rounding up his own citizens as traitors.
Something stinks. here.
Wagner are not patriots. These guys kill people for money and to have prison sentences commuted. I doubt they had a lot of genuine loyalty for Prigozhin, but they sure as hell don't have any loyalty for Mother Russia.
If this isn't just some crazy ass stupid stunt, I have to believe Prigozhin thinks he still has another play to make. No way he ends it this way.
I got nothin'. My new thinking is, they're all just a bunch of mafioso types that act on impulse. Maybe Prigozhin really did do it on the spur of the moment. A temper tantrum because the Russian military wasn't following his advice and tried to short him on supplies.
Putin is definitely the brains of the operation and he uses his goons to whatever he thinks is best at the time.
I hate to admit UncleMark may be right, but Occam's Razor and all......
You've got to give the devil his due - Prigozhin is the Chesty Puller/George Patton of Russian forces. He seems to be the only real leader who can take on the Ukrainians aggressively.
Putin may bring him out of exile like Napoleon out of Elba.
We are a long way from the opening night of the war. I think back on my wish that the Ukrainians would hold on long enough for Western support to arrive. Once again, I find President Lincoln. "I would rather immigrate to Russia where they have no pretense of loving liberty". Get as much military support into Ukraine as fast as possible. No more slow rolling.
‘Putin humiliated’: what the papers said about the Wagner rebellion in Russia | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian
Newspapers around the world raced to cover fast-moving events inside Russia, with many assessing what it could mean for Vladimir Putin
I am guessing Prigozhin misunderstood his relationship with Putin. He thought Putin would accept he is not a threat and so could march against the Ministry of Defense to settle his score and Putin would allow it. Once it became clear Putin saw it as insurrection, Prigozhin backed down.
Nice take, Marv. Better than Lt Gen Kellogg and Gen. Keane Hours ago. I heard Prigozhin expected support from some key Generals … in his demands to oust the defense minister and top general and didn’t get it.
My take is that he thought he had someone (in the Russian Air Force) in on it that could give him air cover. When that fell through he knew he was going nowhere.
He has to have a rather fresh and painful memory of what we did to his men in Syria with Tac Air and knew he and his people would end up a bunch of smoldering corpses if he attempted to proceed...
1. It was for Putin
2. His inner circle is jockeying for position to determine who comes next within the next decade
Man the Russians are just a train wreck. That's all I've got.
It seems the Generals weren't helping Prigozhin, but they weren't doing anything to stop him, either.
The rebels backed down, but Putin's rule is more uncertain than ever
The crisis was unprecedented in Russia’s recent history and may forever tarnish the image of the country’s strongman president, analysts told NBC News.
www.nbcnews.com
What a cluster. Every leader in the Russian military has to be having a Plan B, if they don't already. That doesn't make for great morale.The rebels backed down, but Putin's rule is more uncertain than ever
The crisis was unprecedented in Russia’s recent history and may forever tarnish the image of the country’s strongman president, analysts told NBC News.
If I just led a rebel army into the heart of Russia I'd have to REALLY trust the Belarus President to agree to be separated from that army. Prigozhin doesn't seem like a fool, but he also can't be sleeping too soundly at the moment.
You shouldn’t be buying this. It’s all a scam. To what end I don’t know. But it’s a scam.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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Long, but worthwhile article on escalation management in Ukraine:
tnsr.org
Escalation Management in Ukraine: "Learning by Doing" in Response to the "Threat that Leaves Something to Chance" - Texas National Security Review
The article analyses a process of escalation management over time between nuclear states under conditions of radical uncertainty. After Russia invaded Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin manipulated uncertainty to manage escalation and to deter NATO support of Ukraine. President Joe Biden was...
tnsr.org
LOL.
Prigozhin’s whereabouts remain murky. Belarusian officials told CNN they had no details on what Prigozhin’s status would be in Belarus and could not confirm whether he had already arrived in the country.
The press service for Prigozhin’s Concord management company declined to offer an update, telling CNN only that the warlord “sends his regards to everyone and will answer questions when he has proper communication.”
