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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

Reportedly only 30-60k Russian soldiers in initial invasion. Doesn't make sense. I agree they are going for a quick decapitation of Kiev. But 30-60k troops is not nearly enough to overwhelm Ukraine.
It’s going to be impossible to trust anything on Twitter. If I’m Ukraine I’m pumping tons of lies about our defenses into the online battlefield.

 
Reportedly only 30-60k Russian soldiers in initial invasion. Doesn't make sense. I agree they are going for a quick decapitation of Kiev. But 30-60k troops is not nearly enough to overwhelm Ukraine.

i don’t think they have to occupy to win. they can topple and leave ala Georgia except in the the east where they clearly plan to stay. Ukraine will have the option of being a perpetually failed state or orienting towards Russia.
 
I'm no foreign policy wonk but telling a bunch of people who are fighting for their lives and hiding in subways to "give it a month and see how things look" doesn't sound much like a measured statesman
If I recall correctly that was in response to a reporters question and clearly wasn’t intended as a message of encouragement to the Ukrainian people.

Hindsight is 2020 but the Ukrainians blew their chance to push to get into NATO years ago. They straddled the east-west fence and now they are suffering the consequences. In the final analysis we’re not engaging on behalf of the Ukrainian people, we are engaging as a matter of principle, ultimately to preempt World War III.

If we, the west, damage our economies too much on behalf of Ukraine, Putin wins because our economies have much more to lose than his puny POS.

This could easily be more farcical than wasting $300 million searching for a suicide airliner in the Indian Ocean.
 
Current game plan appears to capture the flag … and install a puppet govt.
The Russians break it —- let’s see how good they are at nation building
Elections will be rigged for years and The boot heels will grind hard on the supplicants
 
it depends on the will of the USG. If we return to drilling we become energy independent and will be able to sell the surplus to European countries at a lower rate than Russia, thereby deprivig Putin of the money he needs to expand Russian living space.

As of now, the EU countries need Russia energy resources. Putin has found a way to economically weaken and fragment NATO.
I don’t know about that. Costs a lot to ship LNG across the pond. Likely far more than piping it in from Russia. @Victorbmyboy had some posts earlier which touched on this.
 
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it depends on the will of the USG. If we return to drilling we become energy independent and will be able to sell the surplus to European countries at a lower rate than Russia, thereby deprivig Putin of the money he needs to expand Russian living space.

As of now, the EU countries need Russia energy resources. Putin has found a way to economically weaken and fragment NATO.
USG doesn’t own the oil/gas. It’s a world commodity. It’s bought and sold on futures. Doesn’t matter who you get it from. It costs what it costs. Sure there are premiums tacked on for regional accessibility. People need to stop with the energy independence nonsense. It’s energy neutrality. We are still the largest producer and climbing as I write this. We are a net exporter too., We(oil/gas companies) still sell and import different crudes for different uses. It’s a world market. Russia will have buyers regardless.
 
Interesting take. I’m thinking mostly of its intellectual capacity. I don’t think they’re coming anywhere close to tapping into it. Their main use seems to be for military advancement. Big deal. There’s nothing wrong with that but why don’t they make a bigger move into all variations on computer and information technology? Their main focus is hacking. Again, big deal. It’s just stupid. Their geniuses can compare with anyone in the world but they get suppressed. That’s not geographical.

Good read on Russian strategic imperatives and how they use buffers


“That leaves buffers. So long as a country controls territory separating itself from its foes — even if it is territory that is easy for a hostile military to transit — it can bleed out any invasion via attrition and attacks on supply lines. Such buffers, however, contain a poison pill. They have populations not necessarily willing to serve as buffers. Maintaining control of such buffers requires not only a sizable standing military for defense but also a huge internal security and intelligence network to enforce central control. And any institution so key to the state’s survival must be very tightly controlled as well. Establishing and maintaining buffers not only makes Russia seem aggressive to its neighbors but also forces it to conduct purges and terrors against its own institutions in order to maintain the empire.”
 
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Got it.

Acknowledging the existence of the Atlantic Ocean, and its ability to impede a war by 1770's England against 1770's America, and acknowledging the assistance of France in said war, = "commie"

GOOD to know.

That has nothing to do with the concept of fighting for freedom and beliefs. I wasn't equating the military circumstances, but drawing a mental parallel.
 
If that’s true - and that a big IF - that bodes well for Ukraine. If guys are basically ready to sacrifice themselves out of national pride then Russia has very little chance.

There is audio (not saying you are wrong as things are frequently distorted and hyperbolized in war)

 
Good read on Russian strategic imperatives and how they use buffers


“That leaves buffers. So long as a country controls territory separating itself from its foes — even if it is territory that is easy for a hostile military to transit — it can bleed out any invasion via attrition and attacks on supply lines. Such buffers, however, contain a poison pill. They have populations not necessarily willing to serve as buffers. Maintaining control of such buffers requires not only a sizable standing military for defense but also a huge internal security and intelligence network to enforce central control. And any institution so key to the state’s survival must be very tightly controlled as well. Establishing and maintaining buffers not only makes Russia seem aggressive to its neighbors but also forces it to conduct purges and terrors against its own institutions in order to maintain the empire.”
Russia is in a death spiral. This is one of its dying throes.
 
Start with Roman Abramovich. He owns Chelsea FC in England. Force a sale.
A side story …I sent my son to Florida Air Academy in 2014. It had quite a few Russian students. The school was located about 10 minutes from the beach. One of the Russian students owned a lot of casinos in Russia and other countries. So one day the school organizes a surfing trip to the beach. They traveled by way of a small van. Someone asked the driver why Florida was such a popular place to live. The driver replied that it has great weather, low taxes , good senior health care and “beautiful beaches”. The Russian casino owner child replied that Russia has many beautiful beeches (sorry I cannot do a better spelling of the sound to letters in Russian) and that many worked for his Father .
The young man and his fellow Russian students did not return after Spring break.
 
Things do not appear to be going well for Russia. Good. There were rumors floating that they were having COVID issues in their camps as well...maybe that would explain the lack of troops in the initial push.
Russia has enough troops to start the job but not enough to finish the job.
 
Vindman was on CNN, he seemed confident that Russia did not meet day 1 objectives.

I certainly don't know, but I do think some to most of what we are hearing is propaganda. We will know it is true when Russian generals start getting sacked.
 
It was a Ukrainian jet shot down by a Russian missile. Yuck. Fog of war. I think we really have no idea who is "winning".

Since when do you just believe CNN's shitty reporting? It directly conflicts with this:



And that seemed way too big and explosive to be a fighter jet.
 
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Russia has enough troops to start the job but not enough to finish the job.
Wrong. They can finish Ukraine. The tanks aren't rolling yet. They’ve probed and knocked out a few sites, but Russia hasn't even put the gloves on, ,much less taken them off. It’s about to get real and ugly. And the introduction of Stingers to shoot at jets will make them go brutal early.

Sanctions won’t save Ukraine. Might bank a rebuild in 20 years, but this shit will last a decade minimum. Unless Putin is deposed, which ain’t happening.
 
Well they specifically came on air to make a clarification that it was specifically a Ukrainian SU27. That's pretty ballsy to make that kind of declaration if inaccurate.

I suppose it is possible. The odds that an SU-27 made that big of an explosion seem low. And how did the Russians get major AA batteries in place that quickly so close to Kyiv where there is plenty of fighting near and around?

But I suppose anything is possible. Hopefully we'll get clarification. People are reporting it was Ukrainian AA that downed a missile, a plane, their own plane, etc.
 
Wrong. They can finish Ukraine. The tanks aren't rolling yet. They’ve probed and knocked out a few sites, but Russia hasn't even put the gloves on, ,much less taken them off. It’s about to get real and ugly. And the introduction of Stingers to shoot at jets will make them go brutal early.

Sanctions won’t save Ukraine. Might bank a rebuild in 20 years, but this shit will last a decade minimum. Unless Putin is deposed, which ain’t happening.
If this goes poorly for Russia, in the sense they don’t quickly achieve their goals and an insurgency arrises, is Putin in trouble internally. I mean, it’s basically the mob anyway, so does he get whacked by one of his own.
 
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If this goes poorly for Russia, in the sense they don’t quickly achieve their goals and an insurgency arrises, is Putin in trouble internally. I mean, it’s basically the mob anyway, so does he get whacked by one of his own.
If it goes badly enough to threaten Putin's support, that's the likely outcome. Maybe not a bullet to the head. Maybe just a coup and an arrest. Perhaps a show trial and a hanging.

But Putin's support among his constituents* is reportedly rock-solid at the moment. He did right by them after they suffered under the sanctions post-Crimea. They trust him to continue taking care of them.

*I don't mean voters; I mean his actual constituents - oligarchs and various other elites.
 
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