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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

I wonder how Putin handles this guy: Semion Mogilevich. He is Ukrainian and said to be the boss of bosses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semion_Mogilevich
Line that made me double take from that article.

William Sessions, former FBI Director from 1987 to 1993 during the Presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush (41), was Mogilevich's attorney in the United States until Sessions' death on June 12, 2020.
That'll give conspiracy nuts a stiffy.
 
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People, I know it’s a little late for this !
Has anyone Called John Wick?
 
People, I know it’s a little late for this !
Has anyone Called John Wick?
pktYoOT.gif
 
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Russia doesn't need to buy China's products, Russia has to SELL products. We aren't about to embargo China, no one has that on the table anywhere. But Russian wheat and gas need sold to fund the military, and China can buy one hell of a lot.
Who is the buyer of China's products?
 
MOEX down 30% before trading was halted. Here's to hope the world sells.

Funny. I'm thinking to pickup some Russian stocks in the next few weeks.
 
That seems like a stupid reason. What other currency are people going to head to? The Yen maybe. Certainly not the Euro.

The USD is already getting massive inflows.
I think Bitcoin has lost the theory of being a hedge. The danger with sanctions and cutting them off from swift is that eventually Russia, China, Iran, etc setup their own networks that do not rely on SWIFT or the USD. And slowly our reserve status is irrelevant.
 
And while I am on a roll, I think Biden mishandled some stuff and I don't believe Trump is some Putin pawn but he really needs to shut the **** up about how "brilliant" Putin is too. I want the U.S. to be more selective about where we stick our nose, but some people on the right are getting really uncomfortably close to being Russian apologists and I did not sign up for that. Our domestic squabbles need to stay in house. We don't need to be providing the Russians with American propaganda supporting what they are doing.
Anyone who is not disgusted by the behavior of Trump, Carlson, that Vance guy in Ohio needs their head examined. It's disgusting and appallingly anti-American.
 
Might as well roll the dice on a few Gazprom
So I've read that the ruble itself is severely undervalued and then my thought is the west can't afford not to have access to Russian energy. Democracies tolerance of suffering is a lot less than Russia's. Maybe wait a few more weeks for more market hemorrhage.

I was expecting this invasion for weeks. Too bad I didn't have the guts to buy some puts. My wife is too risk averse and my marriage is more important than my bets :(
 
Not sure I agree with this. Russia’s geography allows and kinda forces it to be a military super power (huge geography, costly infrastructure, huge/ diverse pop, can mostly feed itself, many hostile neighbors, vast resources, etc) but keeps it from being an economic one (not enough good ports and most are too cold, bad rivers, vast geography, too many hostile neighbors, etc). I agree about the destined for self-destructing part but it’s also always destined for rebirth for the very same reasons. Russia’s geography forces it to govern like it does and manage foreign relations like it does IMO
Interesting take. I’m thinking mostly of its intellectual capacity. I don’t think they’re coming anywhere close to tapping into it. Their main use seems to be for military advancement. Big deal. There’s nothing wrong with that but why don’t they make a bigger move into all variations on computer and information technology? Their main focus is hacking. Again, big deal. It’s just stupid. Their geniuses can compare with anyone in the world but they get suppressed. That’s not geographical.
 
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Then every man is a target. I don't need a bunch of targets, I need key people who will fight and a bunch of people who are willing to help hide them.

If the Russians are too heavy handed, the insurgency will grow organically.


What did I tell you...

This is exactly what I discussed yesterday. I would have done this a week ago and had men armed in ambush positions. E.g along highway Russian tanks were rolling up. Make Russia feel some pain and blood from the start and send bodies home.
 
With Putin's announcement that he'd send troops into Donetsk and Luhansk, and with reports tonight that Russian troops are already rolling through the region, Russia has officially and openly invaded Ukrainian territory. Of course, they were probably already there, anyway, but now there is no room for denial.

This thread is for the foreign policy wonks who got crowded out of the previous thread by the predictable political bullshit. None of that in this thread, please. Let's keep this one focused.
All I know is this bullshit annexed 10k from my retirement account this week and I was expecting another thousands loss today earlier when it was down 800 pts.
Remarkably, it closed up after that, so the bleeding stopped, but I think they need to take a very hard line with sanction threats. I have a degree in poli-sci, and it would generally be worth discussing at that level, but mostly, I just want my f'n money back over this crap.

Putin is bluffing with his veiled threats of nuclear options, does he really think our nukes don't work and that his stock might work as well as throwing Yugo's at us? It's bluffing, I'm not sure what the real motivation is, piss the rest of the world off and try to raise gas prices for another week, cash grab? Sanctions from major customers need to be harsh so he doesn't try this again.
 
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Line that made me double take from that article.


That'll give conspiracy nuts a stiffy.
He also is rumored to own at least a couple of apartments in Trump Tower but doubtful they are shown under his real name. He is probably the closest thing there is in the world to Keyser Söze: The Usual Suspects.
 
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The west but how does that impact what is happening. Russia needs to sell to get cash, China is buying. No where in the equation is there Chinese selling. They will sell to the west as they always do
China will negotiate deals advantageous to China. They will do Russia no favors. They have been buying Iranian oil for peanuts.
 
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So I've read that the ruble itself is severely undervalued and then my thought is the west can't afford not to have access to Russian energy. Democracies tolerance of suffering is a lot less than Russia's. Maybe wait a few more weeks for more market hemorrhage.

I was expecting this invasion for weeks. Too bad I didn't have the guts to buy some puts. My wife is too risk averse and my marriage is more important than my bets :(
Wild swings in all the markets today especially in the grain market. I sold some corn this morning at $7.11/bushel and it finished the day at $6.83 and then sold some corn and soybean futures for next years harvest that were up big time in the morning and then fell a lot later in the day, so for a switch I did very well with my grain marketing activities.

Tomorrow probably will make me regret mentioning my good day. The grain markets used to be the cyrpto currencies of the old days because of the wild swings in price-and the fact you can sell on margins. Supposedly Hillary Clinton made $100,000.00 on a 5k cattle future back when Bill Clinton was the governor of Arkansas.:)
 
China will negotiate deals advantageous to China. They will do Russia no favors. They have been buying Iranian oil for peanuts.
Right, and they will buy Russian wheat and oil and whatever else on the cheap. But it is still money coming into Russia.
 
I agree, I am pointing out sanctions are not going to work quickly. They have money and some income.
The reality is we have no good options. Arm Ukraine to the teeth and hope for the best. I would have applied the strictest sanctions immediately and done more pre-invasion with the hopes of preventing one. I see no use in further delaying sanctions. What else is left to deter?
 
Speaking of Russian and Chinese relation ships, I was reminded of the following.


China will act in its own interests which probably includes taking advantage of Russia’s troubles under the economic sanctions. That may look like helping Russia but China will never forget Manchuria.
 
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Putin just traded major international sanctions for an embroiled military conflict in Ukraine. Putin is hoping for a quick surrender. I don’t think Ukraine has to resist for a long time to push Putin back at least to those eastern regions that he covets the most.

Putin is actually losing this war already. Long-term speaking, internationally speaking, economically speaking.

Like Biden or not, thank God we have a long-time statesman at the helm right now. Putin has met his match.
I'm no foreign policy wonk but telling a bunch of people who are fighting for their lives and hiding in subways to "give it a month and see how things look" doesn't sound much like a measured statesman
 
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I'm no foreign policy wonk but telling a bunch of people who are fighting for their lives and hiding in subways to "give it a month and see how things look" doesn't sound much like a measured statesman
I give it 2 weeks! It’s like taking over Texas.
 
I'm no foreign policy wonk but telling a bunch of people who are fighting for their lives and hiding in subways to "give it a month and see how things look" doesn't sound much like a measured statesman

I don't know if Putin plans on taking Ukraine. I think they want to sneak some covert teams in to assassinate the prez and destroy as much military as they can and get out with the eastern 1/3. Kiev is huge, trying to take it might be very costly.

But Russia's GDP is that of Italy. Every day Ukraine holds out costs Russia a lot of cash. They have reserves. But if we leave sanctions on, for years, those reserves will be hard to replace that equipment. It is the same problem we have, fire a $100,000 missile to blow up a shack becomes an economic problem.

Kiev is about the size of LA, taking and holding that will require a lot.
 
I'm no foreign policy wonk but telling a bunch of people who are fighting for their lives and hiding in subways to "give it a month and see how things look" doesn't sound much like a measured statesman

“wait it out” sounds harsh but that’s the reality if you live in a borderland country that can’t defend itself. Resist and wait for help or give up and lose it all anyway. Kinda the message sent to Western Europe during WW2. Chilling af
 
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I don't know if Putin plans on taking Ukraine. I think they want to sneak some covert teams in to assassinate the prez and destroy as much military as they can and get out with the eastern 1/3. Kiev is huge, trying to take it might be very costly.

But Russia's GDP is that of Italy. Every day Ukraine holds out costs Russia a lot of cash. They have reserves. But if we leave sanctions on, for years, those reserves will be hard to replace that equipment. It is the same problem we have, fire a $100,000 missile to blow up a shack becomes an economic problem.

Kiev is about the size of LA, taking and holding that will require a lot.
I get the purpose. Makes sense. I just meant the messaging to those who are desperate hoping for immediate help
 
13 Ukrainian soldiers died on a 40 acre island/rock in the Black Sea after telling a Russian warship to go **** themselves when asked to surrender.

Why would they be dug in on a 40 acre island in the first place? Makes little sense to me.
 
Honest question. How much can we (USA) squeeze Russia financially before Europe throws in the towel?
it depends on the will of the USG. If we return to drilling we become energy independent and will be able to sell the surplus to European countries at a lower rate than Russia, thereby deprivig Putin of the money he needs to expand Russian living space.

As of now, the EU countries need Russia energy resources. Putin has found a way to economically weaken and fragment NATO.
 
I don't know if Putin plans on taking Ukraine. I think they want to sneak some covert teams in to assassinate the prez and destroy as much military as they can and get out with the eastern 1/3. Kiev is huge, trying to take it might be very costly.

But Russia's GDP is that of Italy. Every day Ukraine holds out costs Russia a lot of cash. They have reserves. But if we leave sanctions on, for years, those reserves will be hard to replace that equipment. It is the same problem we have, fire a $100,000 missile to blow up a shack becomes an economic problem.

Kiev is about the size of LA, taking and holding that will require a lot.
Reportedly only 30-60k Russian soldiers in initial invasion. Doesn't make sense. I agree they are going for a quick decapitation of Kiev. But 30-60k troops is not nearly enough to overwhelm Ukraine.
 
13 Ukrainian soldiers died on a 40 acre island/rock in the Black Sea after telling a Russian warship to go **** themselves when asked to surrender.

Why would they be dug in on a 40 acre island in the first place? Makes little sense to me.
If that’s true - and that a big IF - that bodes well for Ukraine. If guys are basically ready to sacrifice themselves out of national pride then Russia has very little chance.
 
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