They don't often lose to lesser seeds, true. I looked up Painter's record:
2005- no tourney
2006 -no tourney
2007 Seeded #9, lost to #1
2008 Seeded #6, lost to #3
2009 Seeded #5, lost to #1
2010 Seeded #1, lost to #1
2011 Seeded #3, lost to #11
2012 Seeded #10, lost to #3
2013-no tourney
2014-no tourney
2015 Seeded #9, lost to #8
2016 Seeded #5, lost to #12
2017 Seeded #4, lost to #1
2018 Seeded #2, lost to #3
2019 Seeded #3, lost to #1
2020-no tourney
2021 Seeded #4, lost to #13
2022 Seeded #3, lost to #15
2023 Seeded #1, lost to #16
So yes, 8 of 14 tourney appearances they were beaten by better seeds. Of the other 6, one (2018) isn't bad, losing to a 3 as a 2. Five of fourteen have them losing to double digit seeds. So prior to the last three seasons you're right, Painter's record was not that bad.
But hey, the last three were pretty funny, so there's that.