Polls - - a week out

[Hoopsdoc1978]

I assume you respect the office of the president while being critical of the current office-holder. The two aren’t mutually exclusive.

I have enormous respect for our judiciary, including the Supreme Court. I’m not thrilled with the current iteration, though, particularly two justices who are clearly biased, seriously conflicted and should have recused themselves from some highly consequential cases. One of them is grossly unethical. The chief justice is unable or unwilling to rein them in.

We'll probably get two more just like them if your boy wins next week.

How much time did you spend looking for a “gotcha!” that isn’t a gotcha? Why am I under your skin? You need a hobby or something.

Lol. Took me 2 minutes to find that on the ride home from work.(I carpool, so I wasn’t driving). The comment I responded to with that literally made me chuckle.

Look, I get it. You get frustrated when you can’t browbeat people into seeing things your way but you should try to work on that. You just end up insulting people and it’s unbecoming.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Lol. Took me 2 minutes to find that on the ride home from work.(I carpool, so I wasn’t driving). The comment I responded to with that literally made me chuckle.

Look, I get it. You get frustrated when you can’t browbeat people into seeing things your way but you should try to work on that. You just end up insulting people and it’s unbecoming.

I thought the Dream Team nickname was the "Fightin' Browbeaters"

 

[Bowlmania]

You get frustrated when you can’t browbeat people into seeing things your way

Browbeat? Seriously? What I did/do is "browbeating." Dude, you need a thicker skin. Or you've got me confused with someone else. Your "coach," maybe?

 

[IUCrazy2]

I think there are a few things to consider here. I’m using Indiana as the example since that is where I live.

1. We get worse candidates. Rs pulling straight tickets continues to move the party further and further right. It is creating the monolith you identify above. Essentially, the R elected in Indiana is the person who was the most extreme primary candidate.

2. It’s breeds corruption. Rs pulling straight tickets in a very red Indiana gave us R supermajorities. Things get done away from the sunshine disinfectant and there is no credible D challenge. Further, choosing morally bankrupt candidates just because they are an R increases the likelihood of corruption.

3. Lack of representation. No I’m not talking about for Ds or others who don’t agree with their policies, I’m taking about the R who pull straight tickets. Because we have created the super R majority, they don’t have to care at all about what you, a supporter and voter, think. They can be swayed by special interests or simply follow their own extreme ideology on a subject. They don’t need your vote and don’t care because they don’t have to care.

Then the D's need to move towards me, not the other way around. Braun isn't really exciting to me and neither is our AG, but you know what isn't going to get me to vote for you? Making half your campaign basically, "I'm abortion Barbie" and the other half being a shill for the teacher's union. That doesn't move the needle for me. (And frankly I think things in the schools took a downturn under McCormick so I want her as far away from making decisions on that as possible. What should be a strength for her is a major weakness where I sit.)

Basically, run better candidates. It takes a whole bunch for people who don't agree with your party's worldview to vote for you. You have to make them comfortable to do that. The Indiana Democrats haven't been able to figure that out and frankly the national party hurts them in a state like Indiana with the way they act towards blue collar white workers in particular. Your President just called them garbage, why the hell would they vote for a person in that party who spends most of their time parroting what is said in D.C.?

I think the same works in reverse for Republicans in blue states.

 

[Bowlmania]

You just end up insulting people and it’s unbecoming.

When it comes to "insult" posters, I'm far down the list.

Interesting that you turn a blind eye to your favorite poster, the meltdown man, who's #1 on the list.

 

[Cortez88]

Then the D's need to move towards me, not the other way around. Braun isn't really exciting to me and neither is our AG, but you know what isn't going to get me to vote for you? Making half your campaign basically, "I'm abortion Barbie" and the other half being a shill for the teacher's union. That doesn't move the needle for me. (And frankly I think things in the schools took a downturn under McCormick so I want her as far away from making decisions on that as possible. What should be a strength for her is a major weakness where I sit.)

Basically, run better candidates. It takes a whole bunch for people who don't agree with your party's worldview to vote for you. You have to make them comfortable to do that. The Indiana Democrats haven't been able to figure that out and frankly the national party hurts them in a state like Indiana with the way they act towards blue collar white workers in particular. Your President just called them garbage, why the hell would they vote for a person in that party who spends most of their time parroting what is said in D.C.?

I think the same works in reverse for Republicans in blue states.

Oh Indiana Ds are a nonfunctional party no doubt. I will say McCormick is leaps and bounds a better candidate than Woody Myers was. Also, the Ds are running much more moderate candidates for statewide elections this cycle. I know they aren’t your cup of tea, but McCormick, Goodin, and Wells are not progressives. I also know your thoughts on abortion, so I get that.

Like Ive said before, mine is probably just a frustration that I don’t have a home anymore. I can’t support a Braun and Beckwith ticket. I could also never vote for Rokita. I don’t think a Mitch Daniels is walking through that door in this iteration of the Indiana GOP.

 

[WhyisIUBBcursed]

I hope you reconsider. You're one of the best posters here.

I will likely after the election. Just not a fan of the vitriol here. One time I throw out a Go F Yourself and I get threatened (and though I had visuals of whips and chains and 3 Hooters girls, I feel it was something more sinister), but the vile 💩 spewed by chief MAGA cult leader is just a “pissing match”. There are more important things in life to get fired up about and I found myself seething over some imbeciles I will never meet and shouldn’t give a crap about…. So it’s safer for me to run for awhile. Thanks for the support

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Why the Right Thinks Trump Is Running Away With the Race

The torrent of polls began arriving just a few weeks ago, one after the other, most showing a victory for

dnyuz.com

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

“I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well.” -- Trump on Polymarket

 

[Charlesroast]

“I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well.” -- Trump on Polymarket

All these polls are worthless. The Presidential election will be decided by the very targeted GOTV efforts of the two parties in a handful of “swing” states. The next two years in this country will basically be decided by who becomes Senate Majority leader, not the winner of the worst Presidential matchup in my lifetime (77 years).

 

[jet812]

VP Harris did not control Prez Biden's administration any more than VP Pence controlled Prez Trump's administration. But you know that already.

You've known the Constitutional limitations on powers of a vice president ever since you were in seventh grade, but here you are trying foolishly to claim Harris was responsible for everything you don't like about Biden.

Looks weird.

So she’s ineffective & unable to be persuasive and exert influence on others. Agreed.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Historian who correctly predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections picks Harris, still

Despite polls telling a less clear story, historian Allan Lichtman is holding his ground that Kamala Harris will win the election next week.

news.yahoo.com

I enjoy how this guy always riles up dbm . . .

 

[Spartans9312]

New battleground state polls appearing today in RealClear:

• Arizona (CNN): Harris +1
• Nevada (CNN): Trump +1
• Nevada (Trafalgar Group): Tie
• North Carolina (WRAL-TV/Survey USA): Tie
• North Carolina (Trafalgar Group): Trump +3
• North Caroline (Elon): Tie
• Wisconsin (InsiderAdvantage): Trump +1
• Michigan (Emerson): Trump +1
• Michigan (Susquehanna): Harris +5
• Pennsylvania (AmGreatness/NSOR): Tie

All but the Susquehanna poll (Michigan) are within the MOE.

So how soon 'til Trump declares victory? Election night? November 6? Tomorrow?

Emerson has Harris up by a hair in Nevada.

+3 D was the registration edge - we can see with our own eyes now that it’s +5 R with over 2/3 of the votes in. Likely 70%. That is why I stopped looking at polls as we can see with our own eyes what turnout is shaping up to be in Nevada and it’s not +3D. We should see around 4500 to 5000 mail ballots from Washoe drop today that could be +300 too 400 D. That is not even the daily gain the GOP gets in just one rural county-Lyon-this week. Looking at trends with 70% of the vote in….younger, AA and Hispanic voters are still lagging 2020 numbers.

The registration gains for the GOP over the last four years….we are seeing how this plays out in Nevada. Yes the GOP gained voters in Nevada and that helps the gap between the parties. What also helps is that GOP registered voters have become a little bit older than the D voters over the last four years as some older D voters either switched parties or became inactive. So when younger voters (18-39) have their turnout lower it really affects that D-R ratio. Boring stuff but it’s what makes the difference in NV, NC, AZ and Florida turnout. Frankly in states like TX, WI, MI and PA we have not seen the D/R changes because they don’t register by party but IMO it’s there.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Emerson has Harris up by a hair in Nevada.

+3 D was the registration edge - we can see with our own eyes now that it’s +5 R with over 2/3 of the votes in. Likely 70%. That is why I stopped looking at polls as we can see with our own eyes what turnout is shaping up to be in Nevada and it’s not +3D. We should see around 4500 to 5000 mail ballots from Washoe drop today that could be +300 too 400 D. That is not even the daily gain the GOP gets in just one rural county-Lyon-this week. Looking at trends with 70% of the vote in….younger, AA and Hispanic voters are still lagging 2020 numbers.

The registration gains for the GOP over the last four years….we are seeing how this plays out in Nevada. Yes the GOP gained voters in Nevada and that helps the gap between the parties. What also helps is that GOP registered voters have become a little bit older than the D voters over the last four years as some older D voters either switched parties or became inactive. So when younger voters (18-39) have their turnout lower it really affects that D-R ratio. Boring stuff but it’s what makes the difference in NV, NC, AZ and Florida turnout. Frankly in states like TX, WI, MI and PA we have not seen the D/R changes because they don’t register by party but IMO it’s there.

Spartans how are you feeling about our chances

 

[Spartans9312]

Georgia Votes

A little slower day than expected in Georgia yesterday. Today is the last day for early voting in person and I’m pretty sure they usually get a last minute push…not so much this year as only 196,287 were recorded. 17K in mail ballots came in and they were more AA then normal and that pushed up one number and pushed the other day ever so slightly. White voters dipped a bit to 58.7 and AA is at 26.2. Very slight change as Hispanic and other voters picked up a bit. Younger voters moved the needle a bit to 25.6% of vote for the 18-39 group. That compares to 36% for 2020 and at 72 to 73% of the vote in that needle is getting harder to move. Mostly other stayed overall the same as it’s still much better for the GOP in early in Georgia to date compared to 2020

 

[Spartans9312]

Spartans how are you feeling about our chances

No freaking clue…you’ll have to ask DBM.

There is a good chance I drink a few beers tonight…

 

[dbmhoosier]

Emerson has Harris up by a hair in Nevada.

+3 D was the registration edge - we can see with our own eyes now that it’s +5 R with over 2/3 of the votes in. Likely 70%. That is why I stopped looking at polls as we can see with our own eyes what turnout is shaping up to be in Nevada and it’s not +3D. We should see around 4500 to 5000 mail ballots from Washoe drop today that could be +300 too 400 D. That is not even the daily gain the GOP gets in just one rural county-Lyon-this week. Looking at trends with 70% of the vote in….younger, AA and Hispanic voters are still lagging 2020 numbers.

The registration gains for the GOP over the last four years….we are seeing how this plays out in Nevada. Yes the GOP gained voters in Nevada and that helps the gap between the parties. What also helps is that GOP registered voters have become a little bit older than the D voters over the last four years as some older D voters either switched parties or became inactive. So when younger voters (18-39) have their turnout lower it really affects that D-R ratio. Boring stuff but it’s what makes the difference in NV, NC, AZ and Florida turnout. Frankly in states like TX, WI, MI and PA we have not seen the D/R changes because they don’t register by party but IMO it’s there.

Pubs have cut the deficit by 404k in PA since 2020. Biden won by 80k. People still keep overlooking this. Dems will not come close to the 500k firewall they thought they needed by Tuesday.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Pubs have cut the deficit by 404k in PA since 2020. Biden won by 80k. People still keep overlooking this. Dems will not come close to the 500k firewall they thought they needed by Tuesday.

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Based on what you’re seeing how would you rate your confidence level?

 

[dbmhoosier]

Based on what you’re seeing how would you rate your confidence level?

80% Trump wins PA and the election. Harris can only win with some real funky stuff coming out of Philly. That's what Mark Halperin was hitting on in his Tucker interview from 2 weeks ago.

 

[mcmurtry66]

80% Trump wins PA and the election. Harris can only win with some real funky stuff coming out of Philly. That's what Mark Halperin was hitting on in his Tucker interview from 2 weeks ago.

Uh oh we’re down to 80 percent. Keep us updated. You’re the only one I follow for polls and odds

 

[Cortez88]

80% Trump wins PA and the election. Harris can only win with some real funky stuff coming out of Philly. That's what Mark Halperin was hitting on in his Tucker interview from 2 weeks ago.

If Trump loses, it’s because of fraud, right? Rigged election?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

If Trump loses, it’s because of fraud, right? Rigged election?

 

[Spartans9312]

An interesting analysis from former Bush Chief of staff and veteran of multiple campaigns Matthew Dowd.

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The detail numbers are available for Georgia. Richmond county is down to 76.5% of its 2020 numbers. Early vote by mail for Richmond is well down but the voters have had the better part of three weeks plus two Sundays to get out and vote. There are numerous sites in the county to vote early in. This is very similar to Shelby county TN (Memphis)….a strong D/AA county is 25% off. Historically, in Memphis if the early voting is off by 25% then that will be about the difference on Election Day. I’m really surprised by these numbers

 

[dbmhoosier]

If Trump loses, it’s because of fraud, right? Rigged election?

No. Not necessarily. But watch what Halperin said on Tucker. He thinks Trump will win and Harris has a shot but it's low. He talked about outrage on both sides depending on what happens. Dems will loot and burn no matter how big Trump's margin is.

What he said about Harris is... she's unlikely to win but if she did it's almost certainly in a near 2000 style squeaker. He was talking about Shapiro and Whitmer and how they'd better be transparent and be able to explain any strange voting patterns or trends coming out of Philly or Detroit. If turnout is 50%, 55%, 60%, etc throughout every precinct, country, etc throughout the states but somehow magically 90%+ of the black people in Philly and Detroit who are the lowest propensity voters in those states all cast a mail in ballot for Harris the Governors had better have a good explanation for how something like they can happen. And there's only one way something like that can happen even if you ran the election 1000 x's. He knows they can't explain it. But that won't happen. Whitmer and Shapiro have their eyes on 2028.

To spot voter fraud, you look for weird trends or anomalies that only benefit one side and only happen in certain areas. This is Poly Sci 101.

 

[Spartans9312]

Here’s Virginia

You are being redirected...

1,995,570 have voted early so far compared to 2,445,138. Turnout data is very stable…we are 40% of total votes cast. I believe today is the last day of early voting in person.

1. There is a decline from 889,000 accepted mail in ballots for all 2020 compared to 403,000 for 2024. There will be a few more ballots received before Election Day it’s easy to look at the decline of 450,000 in votes this year and match it up to the decline in Mail in ballots.

2. The AA voters and the NOVA area seems to be lagging in overall early voting numbers.

3. To offset that decline GOP and rural votes are up in early voting over 2020

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

No. Not necessarily. But watch what Halperin said on Tucker. He thinks Trump will win and Harris has a shot but it's low. He talked about outrage on both sides depending on what happens. Dems will loot and burn no matter how big Trump's margin is.

What he said about Harris is... she's unlikely to win but if she did it's almost certainly in a near 2000 style squeaker. He was talking about Shapiro and Whitmer and how they'd better be transparent and be able to explain any strange voting patterns or trends coming out of Philly or Detroit. If turnout is 50%, 55%, 60%, etc throughout every precinct, country, etc throughout the states but somehow magically 90%+ of the black people in Philly and Detroit who are the lowest propensity voters in those states all cast a mail in ballot for Harris the Governors had better have a good explanation for how something like they can happen. And there's only one way something like that can happen even if you ran the election 1000 x's. He knows they can't explain it. But that won't happen. Whitmer and Shapiro have their eyes on 2028.

To spot voter fraud, you look for weird trends or anomalies that only benefit one side and only happen in certain areas. This is Poly Sci 101.

Trump hired two different expert vote data analysts to look into every claim of voter fraud. Both found there was very little to none, and none that could possibly change the outcome. One of them was Ken Block who said:

“We have all these unfounded claims of voter fraud. There are so many that it’s hard to believe it’s not true. But the reality is, it’s not true.”

and:

“Every single claim they asked me to look at was false.”

Trump has admitted in private and a couple times he admitted it publicly (you practically cried when he did that) but he's back to claiming he lost due to voter fraud. It keeps the moron faction of his followers riled up (like you) and is setting himself up to do the same if/when he loses this election.

Donald Trump hired him to find voting fraud. He debunked it instead

“We have all these unfounded claims of voter fraud,” data analyst Ken Block said. “... it’s hard to believe it’s not true. But the reality is, it’s not true.”

www.seattletimes.com

 

[dbmhoosier]

Trump hired two different expert vote data analysts to look into every claim of voter fraud. Both found there was very little to none, and none that could possibly change the outcome. One of them was Ken Block who said:

“We have all these unfounded claims of voter fraud. There are so many that it’s hard to believe it’s not true. But the reality is, it’s not true.”

and:

“Every single claim they asked me to look at was false.”

Trump has admitted in private and a couple times he admitted it publicly (you practically cried when he did that) but he's back to claiming he lost due to voter fraud. It keeps the moron faction of his followers riled up (like you) and is setting himself up to do the same if/when he loses this election.

Donald Trump hired him to find voting fraud. He debunked it instead

“We have all these unfounded claims of voter fraud,” data analyst Ken Block said. “... it’s hard to believe it’s not true. But the reality is, it’s not true.”

www.seattletimes.com

They were allowed to examine the ballots, envelopes, and voter registration cards? Because that is the only possible way to detect the fraud we believe occurred. Anything else is a complete waste of time.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

They were allowed to examine the ballots, envelopes, and voter registration cards? Because that is the only possible way to detect the fraud we believe occurred. Anything else is a complete waste of time.

Trump paid for their expertise. Trump knows he lost legitimately but wants you to believe otherwise - and you do. Keep on being a moron. It's amazing and pathetic.

 

[Spartans9312]

» 2024 General Election Early Vote – Nevada UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu

365,360 R
320,735 D
260,943 Other
Total 947,038
Total Mail Drop looks to be 16,742 (there was another smaller one earlier in the day) and it appears to be 6392 D, 3722 R and 6628 other. Clark county is now 240,440 D…229,523R and 189,368 Other or about +10,900 D.

Trump won the non urban counties by about 70,000 votes in 2020. We are roughly 70% of votes to be cast and this ship gets harder to change directions for the Ds at this point

 

[dbmhoosier]

PA looks strong for Trump.

 

[mcmurtry66]

PA looks strong for Trump.

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Dbm do you believe it’ll be close enough to the finish line for trump to go ahead and declare victory this weekend?

 

[ChicagoFineForNow]

Dbm do you believe it’ll be close enough to the finish line for trump to go ahead and declare victory this weekend?

For real though. If the election day count is really strong for Trump, it might be clear enough on election night that we don't have wait around for weeks while the mail-ins are "counted" to project who won.

We could possibly get a decision on election night. Quaint thought I know.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Dbm do you believe it’ll be close enough to the finish line for trump to go ahead and declare victory this weekend?

For real though. If the election day count is really strong for Trump, it might be clear enough on election night that we don't have wait around for weeks while the mail-ins are "counted" to project who won.

We could possibly get a decision on election night. Quaint thought I know.

Not this weekend. But if the ED vote in PA is anywhere near what most anticipate we'll be able to call it on election night and I'll be strolling into Goat's election night thread at 1 am like...

 

[mcmurtry66]

Not this weekend. But if the ED vote in PA is anywhere near what most anticipate we'll be able to call it on election night and I'll be strolling into Goat's election night thread at 1 am like...

We’ve waited four long years for this vindication. But listen if they cheat us. We still have a great end of 24. Iu football. THE PROBLEM CHILD!! AND SQUID GAMES TWO LFG!!!!!!!!!

 

[Hoopsdoc1978]

Not this weekend. But if the ED vote in PA is anywhere near what most anticipate we'll be able to call it on election night and I'll be strolling into Goat's election night thread at 1 am like...

If he does manage to survive until Wednesday and actually win the election, what’s your read on the number of impeachments and special counsel investigations in his next term?

I say 3 and 4.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Wisconsin looking strong too. We only need one.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Wisconsin looking strong too. We only need one.

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Is it fair to say that daughtry has replaced pose as our go to guy?

 

[cosmickid]

For real though. If the election day count is really strong for Trump, it might be clear enough on election night that we don't have wait around for weeks while the mail-ins are "counted" to project who won.

We could possibly get a decision on election night. Quaint thought I know.

Dems feel increasingly bullish about PA, both in terms of early vote as well as ED prospects.

First off despite increased efforts and turnout from GOP registered voters, Dems still lead 941,000--547,000 in terms of votes cast by registered Dems vs registered Pubs. So nearly a 400,000 vote lead.

But beyond just the raw numbers, Dems are pretty happy with the composition of the early vote...

With the already demonstrated generation gap in the early vote in PA (Women lead by 13%), as well as the generation gap that shows up in actual polling it's reasonable to assume that some of the registered female repubs who voted early by mail so far are voting for Harris. And of the GOP mail votes that have been cast they are overwhelmingly coming from areas where Haley did very well in the Primary. For reference PA has a closed Primary and Haley got over 130,000 votes in PA despite the Primary occurring 7 weeks after she left the race.

We won't know how Haley voters split untilafter the election. But a significant number of GOP voters who cast mail ballots in 2020 actually voted for Biden. So it's pretty reasonable to assume a number of these early votes cast by Haley supporters are voting for Harris. But we won't find out till the votes are counted...

Also fully 93% of the early GOP vote comes from 2020 voters. Which means they aren't doing a good job of turning out new or less proficient voters. Of that 547,000 votes returned early by the GOP, 47% come from voters who voted on ED in 2020.

On the other hand of the 940,000 votes returned by Dems only 12% come from people who voted on election day in 2020. That means the Dems have 88% of their 2020 ED vote, while the Pubs only have 53%.

Consequently, the GOP enters ED trailing by roughly 400,000 and having to play catchup with largely first time voters, or at least voters who did not vote in 2020. Almost half of the GOP's most reliable ED voters have already voted, so their fortunes will rest on their ability to turn out not only new voters, but primarily the least reliable subset of new voters, young (mainly white) men. With Charlie Kirk and Elon heading up that operation I wouldn't feel very assured if I was a Trump supporter...