NASDAQ Down 2 Years worth (30+%)
- Thread starter MyTeamIsOnTheFloor
- Start date
NASDAQ was essentially where it is now when we were about 4 months into the pandemic and a shitload of the country was still shutdown. It's also 1500 points higher than it was pre-pandemic.
It's all a bunch of bullshit.
For long term investors this is a chance to buy. More shares for the dollar.
The rationalizations are easy, when my guy is in power and the market does good or their guy is in power and the market does bad, the president determines the markets.
When my guy is in power and the market does bad, or their guy is in power and the market does great, presidents have very little control over the market.
Whenever I look at my retirement account, I am in a depression. I thought I might be able to get out at 65. Now it looks like 92.
At one-point as I approached my retirement my 401 dropped $23,000 + but in two years later regained it all plus a few thousand. At the beginning month of Covid like everyone else's investments my now IRA was down another $20,000 and came back. Hang in there Mr. Marvin it will come back.
I know it will. I read several years ago that it was wise to stay in, that the advice to move out as you get close meant leaving money on the table. The idea is historically the market rebounds in a year or two. 2008 did that. So I was heavy in the market though conventional wisdom said I shouldn't have been. I am reasonably confident the market will come back.
But there are times...
Historically in my lifetime (1970 on) the worst market drops have happened more frequently under Republican presidents (Reagan 87, Bush 91, Clinton 00, Bush jr 01-02-08 and now Biden if it stays down the rest of the year. Trump had mammoth drops, on par with 87 and 29 in the spring of 20 but it recovered by the end of the year basically on the back of govt stimulus and tech dominance).
The flip side the greatest market advances in my lifetime came under Reagan, Clinton (which was absolutely insane growth) and Obama.
The connection that seems to work the best for the market has been a democratic president with a Republican congress. If there really anything to that? Maybe, maybe not but that's been my rule of thumb to go with.
My meager portfolio peaked in Dec 21. It has since lost as much as 18%, but has creeped back up lately. Today it's down 16%. Gas is creeping down too. The sky has yet to fall.
If my memory serves correct. The stock market has performed best with:
1. Republican President & Republican Congress
2. Split between Republicans and Democrats
3. Democrat President and Congress
Yep. You let Democrats start introducing anti-business bills in the House, and passing them in the Senate, and poof - everybody is out of a job and they start blaming “The Rich”
I'm just thankful that Trump didn't win, since it would be so, so, SO much worse.
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Don’t be so hard on them, they mean well
To be fair, I would hope Republicans outperformed them some or most of their platform would be worthless.DUH!
only Wall St has 60 votes in the senate, and they have more than that.
if anything "economic" gets passed, it was/is Wall St that passed it.
has everyone here been asleep for 40 plus yrs?
only Wall St has 60 votes in the senate, and they have more than that.
if anything "economic" gets passed, it was/is Wall St that passed it.
has everyone here been asleep for 40 plus yrs?
Do you have dates that align with what you are saying, because it's long been known that democrats have had better stock markets even though there is a belief that liberals are terrible for business and therefore business markets.
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“Stock markets do perform better under Democrats than under Republicans. That’s a well-known fact, but it does not imply cause and effect,” says Jeremy Siegel, the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania."
"From 1952 through June 2020, annualized real stock market returns under Democrats have been 10.6% compared with 4.8% for Republicans."
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One it's going to be tough to top Clinton's performance. The 90's we're absolutely insane in regards to market gains but right behind him was Obama's run which came on the heels of a massive crash by historical standards.
To that, GWB had absolutely terrible market performances. Dreadful. Of course he started with a dot.com bubble burst (which dropped Clinton's eye popping performance down in his final year) and went right into 9/11 (which I didn't blame him for...but his response didn't help) and then ended with the crash of 08.
Nasdaq performance based on inauguration day.
Reagan: ~200 finished at 400 (100% growth)
Bush Sr: ~400 finished at ~700 (75% growth)
Clinton: -700 finished at -2800 (300% growth)
Bush Jr: -2800 finished at -1400 (-50% loss)
Obama: -1400 finished at -5500 (292% growth)
Trump: -5500 finished at -13250 (140% growth)
Biden: -13250 currently 11,181 (-16% loss)
Link from smarter people.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergei...rns-under-every-us-president/?sh=6b2c7db4faaf
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I think the starting date was the 1800s. I was surprised when I read it because I had a similar thought as yours. I’ll try to track it down tomorrow.
If it's easy to get great but no worries and don't knock yourself out (I didn't mean to give you a task), I was just curious if I was missing something cause it's something I've casually believed and advised people ever since the 90's.
I do believe a Republican legislative branch is part of the formula, but I can't do republican after the past twenty years and watching the path that the party has gone down (and seems to be continuing).
I just can't.
92 1/2 to be exact.... they're changing SS so full retirement is 92 1/2. 🤣 🤣
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There are no policies currently in place to push the market back up. Inflation rampant - no policy changes. Spending still out of control - they want to spend more. Monetary policy coming in play way too late which will cause a recession. Housing market will bust due to high interest rates. Gas prices way out of control - the administration's answer is to choke of more leases, create more regulation and beg our enemies for oil.
Other than that love what the administration is doing (not).
Other than that love what the administration is doing (not).
Yeah that is what they say and always give you returns if you had been out of the market on the best 10 days in the market. If you are out those 10 days it makes a lot of difference in total return. What they don't give you is what the return would be if you had been out on the worst 10 days.
You can't time the market but if you have time I think you can increase your return by doing more trading. You don't have to buy at the low and sell at the top to make more return.Yeah, the market rebounding doesn't do you much good if you've withdrawn a lot while the market is down to, you know, buy gas and pay more for luxuries like food.Yeah that is what they say and always give you returns if you had been out of the market on the best 10 days in the market. If you are out those 10 days it makes a lot of difference in total return. What they don't give you is what the return would be if you had been out on the worst 10 days.
The business world and the economy itself absolutely adored Donald Trump. My Vanguard accounts, the bulk of which resides in VTSAX, also loved Trump.
Trump was a very good economic president. We have the polar opposite of that approach right now. But what the hell do I know, a TON of 'professional people' voted this clown in and I'm just a blue collar guy...
In the meantime, I'm down 100k on my portfolio in the last 6 months.
Trump was a very good economic president. We have the polar opposite of that approach right now. But what the hell do I know, a TON of 'professional people' voted this clown in and I'm just a blue collar guy...
In the meantime, I'm down 100k on my portfolio in the last 6 months.
I've pointed out that in Nixon's first term, inflation was 3%, then ballooned to over 11% in his second. Was he a good economic president and then a bad economic president, or did an economic cycle and outside forces (oil embargo) tank the economy and there was little a POTUS could do? Evidence supports the latter.
One of the bigger factors in driving global economic woes was a pathetic response to a pandemic by the world's only superpower. If the architect of that pathetic response were in charge today, the ineptitude and ignorance would have continued and we would be in far, far worse shape.
Edit: For the mentally-challenged among us (the most apt term for them is "DANC dumb"), I am not claiming that Nixon was a great economic president or even a terrible one, merely that you would draw ridiculous conclusions by relying on a single economic indicator and attempting to correlate it to the head of the executive branch at the time.
One of the bigger factors in driving global economic woes was a pathetic response to a pandemic by the world's only superpower. If the architect of that pathetic response were in charge today, the ineptitude and ignorance would have continued and we would be in far, far worse shape.
Edit: For the mentally-challenged among us (the most apt term for them is "DANC dumb"), I am not claiming that Nixon was a great economic president or even a terrible one, merely that you would draw ridiculous conclusions by relying on a single economic indicator and attempting to correlate it to the head of the executive branch at the time.
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Same. I was planning to retire Spring 2023. That plan is scuttled.
Who said Nixon was a good economic President? He implement price controls, which is what spurred inflation after they were taken off.
Nice strawman.
I knew the current economic problems were caused by Trump not single-handedly controlling the Wuhan Flu.
Is that another Twitter lie you swallowed?
I think you need to have a cushion in cash that way when the market is down you aren't liquidating at the bottom. A friend of mine convinced me to liquidate some of my holdings when the S and P was at 2100 during the early stages of the pandemic, which was horrible advice but I never did put all of my cash back in the market and that's what I have withdrawn the last few years, if I ever need money. The thing that is great about an IRA or a 401k's are you can decide at the end of the year how much you want to withhold for taxes and don't have to make quarterly payments (I would think this loophole will be closed at some point).Man, I wish I was only down 100k......
