I don't know of anybody that really thought the GOP would lose the House this cycle.
Whether anybody really thought it or not, plenty predicted it when Trump started registering high in the polls...and they repeated it as he started winning primaries.
I could certainly see why they'd have said that. But my point is that they have (thus far, anyway) proven to have been wrong.
I think it's probable that they lose the Senate, but I don't really put that too much on Trump....it was always going to be a hard hold.
I don't know. Maybe, maybe not. Their odds have improved -- with Portman and Rubio both looking likely to prevail. And, while Young is behind Bayh by a few points right now, the race was moved into the toss-up category as the numbers have narrowed.
Either way, the point is that Trump's nomination has not killed the Republican Party's downballot candidates the way many warned it would.
My point is that a Trump presidency (not necessarily nomination) would be devastating for the party.
The reason I keep mentioning the nomination is that, even if you personally didn't say it, many people did: a Trump nomination will kill the party. The fears (or hopes, in some cases) have obviously proven overblown. If they were overblown for a nomination, isn't it possible that they'd be overblown for a presidency, too?
Parties are as much a brand as they are anything else. Ask an average person what names they associate with Republicans....you are going to get George Bush, Reagan, maybe Nixon. Certainly not so much Dole, McCain, or Ford.
You don't want the Trump association upon your brand. At least I wouldn't. That's a heavy cross to bear
The Republican brand was in a bad state long before anybody associated Donald Trump with it. In fact, I think Trump's ascendency is a symptom of that. It was amazing how many people stopped identifying as Republicans in the last 10 years or so. Most of them still vote Republican, it seems. But they were tossing the label in droves -- to the point where some 40% of Americans identified as "conservative" and just about 20% as "Republican." That's pathetic.
What conventional Republican politicians need to do is reconcile with their base. And -- as I've said countless times -- they should start by pivoting on the issue of illegal immigration. If they revert back to their Bush 2007 or Gang of 8 stances on immigration, they will pour fuel on the fire. They need to make it damn clear that they will only advance immigration reform in a "border first" manner. If they do that -- not just say, but DO it -- I think they will start healing the wounds that have led them to this place.
But if they say it and then once again fail to do it, the GOP will become a Trumpist party. And one thing you and I do agree on is that this would not be a good thing.